Digital gerrymandering: Using technology to rig elections

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• July 4, 2022

Insight summary

The evolving trend of using data analytics and social media to tailor political communications is reshaping the electoral landscape, with a notable shift towards digital gerrymandering, which allows for more precise manipulation of electoral districts. While this trend enhances the ability of political parties to engage voters with personalized messages, it also risks deepening political polarization by enclosing voters within echo chambers. The proposed establishment of non-partisan commissions to oversee redistricting, along with the potential for tech-savvy activist groups to develop tools that help identify gerrymandering, represent proactive steps toward maintaining the fairness and integrity of the democratic process amidst this digital shift.

Digital gerrymandering context

Gerrymandering is the practice of politicians drawing district maps to manipulate electoral constituencies to favor their party. As data analytics technologies have developed, social media companies and sophisticated mapping software have become increasingly valuable for parties seeking to create electoral maps in their favor.  Advancements in technology have allowed the manipulation of voting districts to reach previously unknown heights as analog gerrymandering processes have reportedly reached their limits in human capacity and time.

Lawmakers and politicians can now effectively use algorithms with relatively few resources to create different district maps. These maps can be compared against one another based on available voter data, and then can be used to maximize their party’s chances of winning an election. Social media tools can also be used to gather data on voter preferences based on their publicly shared party preferences, along with easily accessible digital records of behavior, such as likes on Facebook or retweets on Twitter. 

In 2019, the US Supreme Court ruled that gerrymandering was a matter that needed to be addressed by state governments and judiciaries, heightening competition between political parties and stakeholders to take control of the district drawing process in their favor. While technology has been used to gerrymander districts, these same technologies can now be used by opponents of the practice to identify when and where gerrymandering has taken place. 

Disruptive impact

The trend of utilizing social media and voter roll information by political parties to tailor communications is noteworthy. Through the lens of personalization, political messages refine using voter preferences and district registrations could indeed make political campaigns more engaging and possibly more effective. However, as voters are funneled more into echo chambers that affirm their pre-existing beliefs, the risk of deepening political polarization becomes apparent. For the individual voter, the exposure to a narrowed spectrum of political ideas could limit understanding and tolerance for diverse political viewpoints, cultivating a more divisive societal landscape over time.

As political parties harness data to refine their outreach, the essence of democratic contest may become a battle of who can better manipulate digital footprints. Moreover, the mention of gerrymandering highlights an existing concern; with enhanced data, political entities may fine-tune electoral district boundaries to their advantage, potentially undermining the fairness of electoral competition. Given these implications, there's a need for a concerted effort among stakeholders to promote a balanced narrative. The proposal for establishing commissions to investigate and monitor redistricting is a proactive step towards ensuring that the electoral process remains fair and representative of the public's will.

Furthermore, the ripple effects of this trend extend to the corporate and governmental sectors. Companies, especially those in the tech and data analytics sectors, may find new business opportunities in offering services that help political entities achieve their data-driven outreach goals. Governments may need to tread a fine line, ensuring that the increasing use of data in political campaigns does not infringe upon citizens' privacy or the foundational principles of democratic competition. 

Implications of digital gerrymandering 

Wider implications of digital gerrymandering may include: 

• Voters losing trust in their political systems, resulting in progressively lower voter turnout rates.
• Increased voter vigilance regarding legislative measures that affect the shape and size of their voting district.
• Potential boycott of social media platforms and legal campaigns against public representatives suspected of being involved in digital gerrymandering.
• Tech-savvy activist groups producing redistricting tracking tools and digital mapping platforms that help identify vote mapping manipulations and where different political constituencies reside within a voting region or area.  
• Companies (and even entire industries) migrating to provinces/states where an entrenched political party holds power thanks to gerrymandering.
• Reduced economic dynamism in provinces/states strangled by gerrymandering due to a lack of political competition that promotes new ideas and change.

Questions to consider

• Do you think the role of large technology companies can ever be ascertained in digital gerrymandering investigations? Should these companies be more responsible in policing how their platforms are used where digital gerrymandering is concerned?
• Do you believe gerrymandering or the spread of misinformation affects election results more?