GPS Backup: The potential of low orbit tracking

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• June 16, 2022

Insight summary

The landscape of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is becoming an area of commercial, technological, and geopolitical maneuvering, with industries like autonomous vehicle companies requiring more precise Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) data than the current GPS can offer. The recognition of GPS data as a foundation for national and economic security has led to executive actions and collaborations aimed at reducing sole reliance on GPS, especially in critical infrastructure sectors. New ventures are emerging, aiming to extend PNT availability through low orbit satellite constellations, potentially unlocking new realms of economic activity.

GPS Backup context

Companies that are investing billions of dollars in developing self-driving cars, delivery drones, and urban air taxis rely on accurate and dependable location data to smoothly manage their operations. However, for example, while GPS-level data can locate a smartphone within a radius of 4.9 meters (16 feet), this distance is not accurate enough for the self-driving car industry. Autonomous vehicle companies are targeting location accuracy up to 10 millimeters, with larger distances posing significant safety and operational challenges in real-world environments.

The reliance of different industries on GPS data is so widespread that disrupting or manipulating GPS data or signals can jeopardize national and economic security. In the United States (US), the Trump administration issued an executive order in 2020 that gave the Department of Commerce the authority to identify threats to the US’ existing PNT systems and directed that government procurement processes take these threats into account. The US Department of Homeland Security also collaborates with the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency so that the country’s power grid, emergency services, and other vital infrastructure are not entirely reliant on GPS.

The drive to expand PNT availability beyond the GPS saw TrustPoint, a startup focused on developing a global navigational satellite system (GNSS) founded in 2020. It received USD $2 million in seed funding in 2021. Xona Space Systems, formed in 2019 in San Mateo, California, is pursuing the same project. TrustPoint and Xona plan to launch small satellite constellations into low orbit to provide global PNT services independently of existing GPS operators and GNSS constellations. 

Disruptive impact

The future of GPS and its alternatives is intertwined with a complex web of commercial, technological, and geopolitical dynamics. The emergence of varied Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) is likely to drive industries dependent on Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) data towards forging commercial alliances with different providers. This move can be seen as a way to ensure redundancy and reliability in crucial navigational and timing data, which is the backbone of many modern industries including logistics, transportation, and emergency services. Moreover, this variety could foster market differentiation and competition within the PNT and GNSS sectors, making them more vibrant and responsive to the needs of their diverse clientele.

On a broader scale, the existence of multiple GNSS systems might highlight the need for a universal regulator or benchmark to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the data provided by these systems. Such a global standard-setting body could work towards harmonizing the technical and operational standards across different GNSS systems, ensuring a level of interoperability and trust among users worldwide. This is crucial as discrepancies in PNT data could have significant ramifications, ranging from minor disruptions in service deliveries to major safety hazards in sectors like aviation or maritime navigation. Furthermore, standardization may also facilitate the integration of different systems, enhancing the global resilience of PNT services against potential system failures, deliberate interferences, or natural disasters.

Governments, traditionally reliant on GPS, may see the value in developing their own PNT systems supported by internally crafted GNSS infrastructure, as a means to achieve data and information independence. This self-reliance not only has the potential to enhance national security but also opens avenues for forming alliances with other nations based on shared social, political, or economic objectives. Moreover, as countries venture into developing independent PNT systems, technology firms within these nations may see a surge in government funding, which could significantly boost job growth within the telecommunications and technology sectors, contributing to a positive economic ripple effect. This trend can ultimately foster a global environment where nations are not only technologically self-reliant but are also engaged in constructive collaborations based on shared PNT infrastructure and objectives.

Implications of new GPS technologies being developed

Wider implications of PNT data being provided from different sources may include:

• Governments developing their own PNT systems for specific military purposes.
• Various nations forbidding PNT satellites from opposing countries or regional blocs from orbiting above their borders.
• Unlocking billions of dollars worth of economic activity as technologies, like drones and autonomous vehicles, will become more reliable and safe for use in a wider array of applications.
• Low-orbit GNSS systems becoming the predominant way of accessing PNT data for operational purposes.
• The emergence of cybersecurity firms that offer PNT data protection as a client service line.
• New startups emerging that specifically take advantage of new PNT networks to create novel products and services.

Questions to consider

• Should a global PNT standard be established, or should different companies and countries be allowed to develop their own PNT data systems? Why?
• How would different PNT standards impact consumer confidence in products that rely on PNT data?