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No ke aha e hoʻokūkū nei nā ʻāina e kūkulu i nā supercomputers nui loa? ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana o nā kamepiula P6

ʻO David Tal, mea hoʻopuka, Futurist
@KekahaNaipo
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Poalua, 09/15/2020 - 15:33

ʻO ka mea nāna e mālama i ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka ʻikepili, nona ka honua. ʻIke nā hui ʻenehana. Ua ʻike nā ʻāina. A ʻo ia ke kumu o kēlā mau ʻaoʻao e manaʻo nei e loaʻa i nā kapuaʻi nui loa i ko mākou honua e hiki mai ana i loko o ka heihei packed e kūkulu i nā supercomputers ikaika loa.

ʻO wai ka lanakila? A pehea e uku ʻia ai kēia mau hoʻopukapuka helu helu? Ma mua o ka ʻimi ʻana i kēia mau nīnau, e hoʻopaʻa hou i ke kūlana o ka supercomputer hou.

ʻO kahi hiʻohiʻona supercomputer

E like me ka wā ma mua, ʻo ka awelika supercomputer o kēia lā he mīkini nui, hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ka nui me kahi kaʻa kaʻa e paʻa ai nā kaʻa 40-50, a hiki iā lākou ke helu i ka lā i ka hopena i nā papahana i ka mea e lawe i ka awelika kamepiula pilikino mau tausani o nā makahiki. hoʻoholo. ʻO ka ʻokoʻa wale nō ʻo ia e like me kā mākou kamepiula pilikino i oʻo ai i ka mana computing, pēlā pū kā mākou supercomputers.

No ka pōʻaiapili, hoʻokūkū nā supercomputers o kēia mau lā ma kahi pālākiō petaflop: 1 Kilobyte = 1,000 bits 1 Megabit = 1,000 kilobytes 1 Gigabit = 1,000 Megabits 1 Terabit = 1,000 Gigabits 1 Petabit = 1,000 Terabits

No ka unuhi ʻana i ka huaʻōlelo āu e heluhelu ai ma lalo nei, e ʻike ʻoe ʻo ka 'Bit' kahi ʻāpana o ke ana ʻikepili. ʻO 'Bytes' kahi ʻāpana o ke ana no ka mālama ʻana i ka ʻike kikohoʻe. ʻO ka mea hope loa, ʻo ka 'Flop' ke kū nei i nā hana lana i kēlā me kēia kekona a ana i ka wikiwiki o ka helu ʻana. Hiki i nā hana lana i ka helu ʻana i nā helu lōʻihi loa, kahi mana koʻikoʻi no nā ʻano ʻepekema a me ka ʻenekinia, a me kahi hana i kūkulu pono ʻia nā supercomputers. ʻO kēia ke kumu, ke kamaʻilio e pili ana i nā supercomputers, hoʻohana ka ʻoihana i ka huaʻōlelo 'flop.'

ʻO wai ka mea nāna e mālama i nā supercomputers kiʻekiʻe o ka honua?

I ka hiki ʻana i ke kaua no ka supercomputer supremacy, ʻo nā ʻāina alakaʻi maoli ka mea āu e manaʻo ai: ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, Kina, Iapana a koho i nā mokuʻāina EU.

Eia nō naʻe, e like me ka nui o ke kanu ʻana i kahi ʻāpana ma ka 10 kiʻekiʻe o ka honua e paʻa i ka hanohano, ʻo ka mea nui maoli ka ʻāpana o ka ʻāina i nā kumuwaiwai supercomputing o ka honua, a eia kahi ʻāina i huki i mua: ʻo Kina.

No ke aha e hoʻokūkū ai nā ʻāina no ka supercomputer supremacy

Ma muli o ka Kūlana kiʻekiʻe 2017, ʻO Kina ka home o 202 o ka honua wikiwiki loa 500 supercomputers (40%), ʻoiai ʻo ʻAmelika ka mana o 144 (29%). Akā, ʻoi aku ka liʻiliʻi o nā helu ma mua o ka nui o ka helu ʻana i kahi ʻāina e hoʻohana ai, a ma ʻaneʻi hoʻi ʻo Kina ke hoʻomalu nei i kahi alakaʻi alakaʻi; Ma waho aʻe o ka loaʻa ʻana o ʻelua o nā supercomputers kiʻekiʻe (2018), hauʻoli pū ʻo Kina i ka 35 pakeneka o ka mana supercomputing o ka honua, i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka 30 pakeneka o ka US.

I kēia manawa, ʻo ka nīnau kūlohelohe, ʻo wai ka mea mālama? No ke aha e hoʻokūkū ai nā ʻāina i ke kūkulu ʻana i nā supercomputers wikiwiki loa?

ʻAe, e like me kā mākou e wehewehe ai ma lalo nei, ʻo nā supercomputers kahi mea hana. Hāʻawi lākou i nā ʻepekema a me nā ʻenekinia o ka ʻāina e hoʻomau i ka holomua paʻa (a i kekahi manawa e lele nui i mua) ma nā kula e like me ka biology, weather forecasting, astrophysics, nuclear weapons, a me nā mea hou aku.

Ma nā huaʻōlelo ʻē aʻe, ʻae nā supercomputers i kahi ʻāpana kūʻokoʻa o ka ʻāina e kūkulu i nā makana ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi a ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o kāna ʻoihana lehulehu. I loko o nā makahiki he nui, hiki i kēia mau holomua supercomputer ke hoʻololi i ke kūlana waiwai, pūʻali koa, a me ka geopolitical.

Ma kahi pae ʻokoʻa, ʻo ka ʻāina nāna e mālama i ka hapa nui o ka mana supercomputing nona ka wā e hiki mai ana.

Ka haki ʻana i ka pale exaflop

Hāʻawi ʻia i nā ʻoiaʻiʻo i hōʻike ʻia ma luna nei, ʻaʻole ia he mea kupanaha ke hoʻolālā nei ʻo ʻAmelika i kahi hoʻi.

Ma 2017, ua hoʻokumu ʻo Pelekikena Obama i ka National Strategic Computing Initiative ma ke ʻano he hui ma waena o ka 'Oihana o Energy, Department of Defense, a me National Science Foundation. Ua hāʻawi mua kēia hana i ka huina o $258 miliona i ʻeono mau hui i ka hoʻāʻo ʻana e noiʻi a hoʻomohala i ka supercomputer exaflop mua loa i kapa ʻia. holaKahua. (No kekahi hiʻohiʻona, ʻo ia ka 1,000 petaflops, ma kahi o ka mana helu o nā supercomputers kiʻekiʻe o ka honua i hui pū ʻia, a he trillion mau manawa ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki ma mua o kāu kamepiula pilikino.) Keʻena o ka Homeland Security, NASA, ka FBI, nā National Institutes of Health, a me nā mea hou aku.

Hoʻoponopono: Ma ʻApelila 2018, ka Ua hoʻolaha ke aupuni US $600 miliona e hoʻolilo i ʻekolu kamepiula exaflop hou:

* Hāʻawi ʻia ʻo ORNL System i 2021 a ʻae ʻia ma 2022 (ORNL system) * LLNL System i hāʻawi ʻia i 2022 a ʻae ʻia ma 2023 (LLNL system) * ANL Potential System i hāʻawi ʻia i 2022 a ʻae ʻia i 2023 (ANL system)

ʻO ka pōʻino no ka US, ke hana pū nei ʻo Kina ma kāna supercomputer exaflop ponoʻī. No laila, hoʻomau ka heihei.

Pehea e hiki ai i nā supercomputers i nā holomua ʻepekema e hiki mai ana

Ma mua, hiki i nā supercomputers o kēia manawa a me ka wā e hiki mai ana ke hiki i nā holomua i nā ʻano aʻoaʻo.

Ma waena o nā hoʻomaikaʻi wikiwiki loa e ʻike ʻia e ka lehulehu, ʻo ia ka hoʻomaka ʻana o nā hāmeʻa i kēlā me kēia lā e hana wikiwiki a ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi. ʻO ka ʻikepili nui e hāʻawi ʻia e kēia mau mea i loko o ke ao e hoʻomaʻamaʻa maikaʻi ʻia e nā supercomputers hui, no laila e hoʻomaka kāu mau mea kōkua pilikino kelepona, e like me ka Amazon Alexa a me Google Assistant, e hoʻomaopopo i ka pōʻaiapili ma hope o kāu kamaʻilio ʻana. e pane pololei i kāu mau nīnau paʻakikī. E hāʻawi pū mai nā toni o nā mea ʻaʻahu hou iā mākou i nā mana kupaianaha, e like me nā puʻu pepeiao akamai e unuhi koke i nā ʻōlelo i ka manawa maoli, Star Trek-style.

Pēlā nō, ma ka waena o 2020s, hoʻokahi ka Pūnaewele o na Mea ʻO nā ʻāina i kūkulu ʻia, kokoke i kēlā me kēia huahana, kaʻa, hale, a me nā mea a pau o ko mākou mau home e pili pūnaewele. Ke hana ʻia kēia, ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o kou honua.

No ka laʻana, e paʻi ana kāu pahu hau i kahi papa kūʻai ke pau ʻoe i ka meaʻai. A laila, hele ʻoe i loko o kahi supermarket, koho i ka papa inoa o nā meaʻai i ʻōlelo ʻia, a hele i waho me ka ʻole o ka hoʻopili ʻana me kahi waihona kālā a i ʻole ka waihona kālā—e hoʻopaʻa ʻakomi ʻia nā mea mai kāu waihona kālā i ka lua o kou puka ʻana i ka hale. Ke hele ʻoe i waho i ke kahua kaʻa, e kali ana kahi kaʻa kaʻa ponoʻī iā ʻoe me ka wehe ʻana o ka pahu e mālama i kāu mau ʻeke a hoʻihoʻi iā ʻoe i ka home.

Akā ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hana a kēia mau supercomputers e hiki mai ana ma ka pae macro. He mau laʻana:

Hoʻohālikelike kikohoʻe: ʻO nā supercomputers, ʻoi aku ka nui ma ka exascale, e ʻae i nā ʻepekema e kūkulu i nā hoʻohālikelike pololei o nā ʻōnaehana olaola, e like me nā wanana aniau a me nā hiʻohiʻona hoʻololi i ka wā lōʻihi. Pēlā nō, e hoʻohana mākou iā lākou no ka hana ʻana i nā simulation traffic maikaʻi aʻe e hiki ke kōkua i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā kaʻa kaʻa ponoʻī.

Semiconductors: Ua lilo nā microchips hou i mea paʻakikī loa no nā hui kanaka e hoʻolālā pono iā lākou iho. No kēia kumu, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā polokalamu kamepiula a me nā supercomputers i ke alakaʻi ʻana i ka hana ʻana i nā kamepiula o ka lā ʻapōpō.

ka Mahiai: Hiki i nā supercomputers i ka wā e hiki mai ana ke kūkulu ʻana i nā mea kanu hou i kū i ka maloʻo, ka wela, a me ka wai paʻakai, a me nā hana pono-pono e hānai ai i ʻelua piliona kānaka e hiki mai ana i manaʻo ʻia e komo i ka honua e 2050. E heluhelu hou i kā mākou ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka heluna kanaka moʻo.

Nā pharma nui: E loaʻa i nā hui lāʻau lapaʻau ka hiki ke hana piha i nā ʻano genomes kanaka, holoholona, a me nā mea kanu e kōkua ai i ka hana lāʻau lapaʻau hou a me ka mālama ʻana no nā ʻano maʻi maʻamau o ka honua. He mea maikaʻi loa kēia i ka wā o nā maʻi maʻi hou, e like me ka hoʻoweliweli Ebola 2015 mai East Africa. ʻO ka wikiwiki o ka wā e hiki mai ana e ʻae i nā hui lāʻau lapaʻau e nānā i ka genome virus a kūkulu i nā lāʻau lapaʻau maʻamau i loko o nā lā ma mua o nā pule a i ʻole mau mahina. E heluhelu hou ma kā mākou Ola Ola moʻo.

ʻO ka palekana'āina: ʻO kēia ke kumu nui e hoʻokomo nui ai ke aupuni i ka hoʻomohala supercomputer. E kōkua nā supercomputers ikaika loa i nā generals e hiki mai ana e hana i nā hoʻolālā kaua kūpono no kēlā me kēia kūlana hakakā; E kōkua ia i ka hoʻolālā ʻana i nā ʻōnaehana mea kaua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, a e kōkua i ka hoʻokō kānāwai a me nā ʻoihana kiu e ʻike maikaʻi i nā mea hoʻoweliweli ma mua o ka hiki ʻana iā lākou ke hōʻeha i nā makaʻāinana home.

ʻimi hoʻopunipuni manao

A laila hele mākou i ke kumuhana hoʻopaʻapaʻa o ka naʻauao artificial (AI). ʻO nā mea hōʻeuʻeu a mākou e ʻike ai ma AI ʻoiaʻiʻo i ka wā 2020s a me 2030s hilinaʻi piha i ka mana maka o nā supercomputers e hiki mai ana. Akā, pehea inā hiki ke hoʻopau ʻia nā supercomputers a mākou i kuhikuhi ai ma ka holoʻokoʻa o kēia mokuna e kahi papa kamepiula hou loa?

Welina mai i nā computer quantum—ʻo ka mokuna hope o kēia pūʻulu he kaomi wale nō.