Quantumrun

AEIU KI'I: Quantumrun

Pehea e kiʻekiʻe ai ka poʻe ma 2030: E hiki mai ana ka hewa P4

ʻO David Tal, mea hoʻopuka, Futurist
@KekahaNaipo
LinkedIn

Poalua, 09/15/2020 - 08:52

He poʻe hoʻohana lāʻau mākou a pau. Inā ʻo ka booze, ka paka, a me ka mauʻu a i ʻole nā mea hōʻeha ʻeha, nā mea hoʻomaha, a me nā antidepressants, ʻo ka ʻike ʻana i nā mokuʻāina i hoʻololi ʻia he ʻāpana o ka ʻike kanaka no nā millennia. ʻO ka ʻokoʻa wale nō ma waena o ko kākou poʻe kūpuna a me kēia lā, ʻo ia ka ʻike maikaʻi ʻana i ka ʻepekema ma hope o ka piʻi kiʻekiʻe.

Akā he aha ka mea e hiki mai ana no kēia leʻaleʻa kahiko? E komo anei mākou i kahi makahiki e nalowale ai nā lāʻau lapaʻau, kahi honua kahi e koho ai nā mea a pau i ke ola maʻemaʻe?

ʻAʻole. He mea weliweli ia.

ʻAʻole wale e ulu ka hoʻohana lāʻau i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, ʻo nā lāʻau lapaʻau e hāʻawi ana i nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe loa ʻaʻole i hana ʻia. Ma kēia mokuna o kā mākou Future of Crime series, ke ʻimi nei mākou i ka noi a me ka wā e hiki mai ana o nā lāʻau lapaʻau.

ʻO nā ʻano e hoʻopau ai i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka lāʻau leʻaleʻa ma waena o 2020-2040

I ka wā e pili ana i nā lāʻau leʻaleʻa, e hana pū kekahi mau ʻano e hoʻonui i kā lākou hoʻohana i waena o ka lehulehu. Akā ʻo nā ʻano ʻekolu e loaʻa ai ka hopena nui loa e pili ana i ka loaʻa ʻana o nā lāʻau lapaʻau, ka loaʻa kālā i loaʻa no ke kūʻai ʻana i nā lāʻau lapaʻau, a me ke koi maʻamau no nā lāʻau lapaʻau.

I ka hiki ʻana mai, ua hoʻomaikaʻi maikaʻi ka ulu ʻana o nā mākeke ʻeleʻele pūnaewele i ka hiki o nā mea hoʻohana lāʻau lapaʻau pākahi (nā mea maʻamau a me nā mea hoʻohui) ke kūʻai aku i nā lāʻau lapaʻau me ka palekana a me ka noʻonoʻo. Ua kūkākūkā ʻia kēia kumuhana ma ka mokuna ʻelua o kēia pūʻulu, akā e hōʻuluʻulu: ʻo nā pūnaewele e like me ka Silkroad a me kāna mau hope e hāʻawi i nā mea hoʻohana i kahi ʻike kūʻai like me Amazon no nā ʻumi kaukani o nā papa inoa lāʻau. ʻAʻole hele kēia mau mākeke ʻeleʻele pūnaewele ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe i kēlā me kēia manawa, a ua hoʻonohonoho ʻia ko lākou kaulana e ulu i ka wā e ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā mākaʻi i ka pani ʻana i nā apo lāʻau kuʻuna.

E hoʻonui ʻia kēia maʻalahi o ka loaʻa ʻana e ka piʻi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā hoʻopau ma waena o ka lehulehu. He pupule paha kēia i kēia lā akā e noʻonoʻo i kēia hiʻohiʻona. Ua kūkākūkā mua ʻia ma ka mokuna ʻelua o kā mākou ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka halihali moʻo, ua kokoke ke kumu kūʻai o ke kaʻa kaʻa US ʻO ka makahiki 9,000. Wahi a Proforged CEO Zack Kanter, "Ua ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka hoʻohana ʻana i kahi lawelawe ridesharing inā ʻoe e noho ana ma ke kūlanakauhale a e hoʻokele ma lalo o 10,000 mau mile i kēlā me kēia makahiki." ʻO ka hoʻokuʻu ʻia ʻana o nā kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa ponoʻī a me nā lawelawe ridesharing i ka wā e hiki mai ana, ʻaʻole pono nā poʻe kūlanakauhale he nui e kūʻai i kaʻa, koe wale nō ka ʻinikua o kēlā me kēia mahina, mālama, a me nā kumukūʻai kaʻa. No nā mea he nui, hiki i kēia ke hoʻohui i kahi mālama kālā ma waena o $ 3,000 a i $ 7,000 i kēlā me kēia makahiki.

A ʻo ia wale nō ka halihali. ʻO nā ʻano ʻenehana a me ka ʻepekema holomua (ʻoi aku nā mea e pili ana i ka automation) e loaʻa nā hopena deflationary like i nā mea āpau mai ka meaʻai, i ka mālama olakino, i nā mea kūʻai aku a me nā mea hou aku. Hiki ke hoʻohuli ʻia ke kālā i mālama ʻia mai kēlā me kēia o kēia mau koina ola i nā ʻano hoʻohana pilikino ʻē aʻe, a no kekahi, e komo pū kēia i nā lāʻau lapaʻau.

ʻO nā ʻano e hoʻopau i ka hoʻohana lāʻau lapaʻau ma waena o 2020-2040

ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻaʻole ʻo nā lāʻau leʻaleʻa wale nō ka lāʻau lapaʻau i hoʻohana ʻia e nā kānaka. He nui ka poʻe i hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻo ka hanauna o kēia lā ka lāʻau lapaʻau nui loa i ka mōʻaukala. ʻO kahi o ke kumu o ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻolaha lāʻau lapaʻau i nā makahiki he ʻelua i hala aku nei e paipai ana i nā poʻe maʻi e ʻai i nā lāʻau lapaʻau ʻoi aʻe ma mua o ka loaʻa ʻana i kekahi mau makahiki i hala. ʻO ke kumu ʻē aʻe ʻo ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā ʻano lāʻau lapaʻau hou e hiki ke mālama i nā maʻi maʻi ma mua o ka hiki i ka wā ma mua. Mahalo i kēia mau mea ʻelua, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ke kūʻai aku ʻana i nā lāʻau lapaʻau honua ma mua o hoʻokahi trillion kālā USD a ke ulu nei ma ka ʻelima a ʻehiku pakeneka i kēlā me kēia makahiki.

Eia nō naʻe, no kēia ulu ʻana, ke hakakā nei ʻo Big Pharma. E like me ka mea i kūkākūkā ʻia ma ka mokuna ʻelua o kā mākou Ola Ola series, ʻoiai ua wehewehe ka poʻe ʻepekema i ka molecular makeup o kahi maʻi 4,000, loaʻa iā mākou nā lāʻau lapaʻau ma kahi o 250 o lākou. ʻO ke kumu ma muli o kahi ʻike i kapa ʻia ʻo Eroom's Law ('Moore' backwards) kahi i hoʻopaʻa ʻia ai ka helu o nā lāʻau lapaʻau i ʻae ʻia i kēlā me kēia piliona i nā kālā R&D i ka hapalua i kēlā me kēia ʻeiwa makahiki, i hoʻoponopono ʻia no ka hoʻonui kālā. Hoʻopiʻi kekahi i kēia emi ʻana o ka huahana lāʻau lapaʻau e pili ana i ka loaʻa kālā ʻana o nā lāʻau lapaʻau, ʻo nā mea ʻē aʻe e hoʻopiʻi i kahi ʻōnaehana patent stifling, nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻāʻo ʻana, nā makahiki e pono ai no ka ʻae ʻana i ka hoʻoponopono - ke pāʻani nei kēia mau mea āpau i kēia kumu hoʻohālike.

No ka lehulehu, ʻo kēia emi ʻana o ka huahana a me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai o ka R&D e hoʻopau i ka hoʻonui ʻana i ke kumukūʻai o nā lāʻau lapaʻau, a ʻoi aku ka nui o nā piʻi kumukūʻai makahiki, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā poʻe e huli i nā mea kūʻai aku a me nā mākeke ʻeleʻele pūnaewele e kūʻai i nā lāʻau lapaʻau e pono ai lākou e ola. .

ʻO kekahi kumu nui e hoʻomanaʻo ʻia ʻo ia ma ʻAmelika, ʻEulopa, a me nā ʻāpana o ʻAsia, ua wānana ʻia ka nui o ka poʻe ʻelemakule e ulu nui i nā makahiki ʻelua e hiki mai ana. A no ka poʻe ʻelemakule, ʻoi aku ka nui o kā lākou uku mālama ola i ka hohonu o ko lākou hele ʻana i ko lākou mau makahiki pōuliuli. Inā ʻaʻole mālama pono kēia poʻe ʻelemakule no ko lākou hoʻomaha ʻana, a laila hiki ke koi ʻia ke kumukūʻai o nā lāʻau lapaʻau e hiki mai ana iā lākou, a me nā keiki a lākou e hilinaʻi ai, e kūʻai i nā lāʻau mai ka mākeke ʻeleʻele.

Hoʻoponopono lāʻau lapaʻau

ʻO kekahi kumu nui e pili ana i ka hoʻohana ʻana o ka lehulehu i nā lāʻau leʻaleʻa a me nā lāʻau lapaʻau, ʻo ia ka piʻi ʻana o ke ʻano i ka deregulation.

E like me ka ʻimi ʻia ma mokuna ekolu o kā mākou Lawa e hiki mai ana series, ua ʻike ka 1980s i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke "kaua i nā lāʻau lapaʻau" i hele mai me nā kulekele hoʻopaʻi koʻikoʻi, ʻoi aku ka manawa o ka hale paʻahao. ʻO ka hopena pololei o kēia mau kulekele he pahū i ka heluna hale paʻahao US mai lalo o 300,000 i ka makahiki 1970 (ma kahi o 100 mau paʻahao no 100,000) i 1.5 miliona ma 2010 (ma luna o 700 mau paʻahao no 100,000) a me ʻehā miliona mau paʻahao. ʻAʻole helu kēia mau helu no nā miliona i hoʻopaʻa ʻia a pepehi ʻia paha ma nā aupuni ʻAmelika Hema ma muli o ka hopena o US i kā lākou mau kulekele hoʻokō lāʻau.

A ke hoʻopaʻapaʻa nei kekahi poʻe ʻo ke kumukūʻai maoli o kēia mau kulekele lāʻau koʻikoʻi a pau he hanauna nalowale a he hōʻailona ʻeleʻele ma ke panana pono o ke kaiāulu. E hoʻomanaʻo ʻo ka hapa nui o ka poʻe i hoʻokomo ʻia i loko o nā hale paʻahao he poʻe addict a me nā mea kūʻai lāʻau haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, ʻaʻole nā mōʻī lāʻau. Eia kekahi, ʻo ka hapa nui o kēia poʻe lawehala i hele mai mai nā kaiāulu ʻilihune, a laila hoʻohui i ka hoʻokae lāhui a me ke kaua papa i lalo o ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa ʻana o ka paʻahao. Ke hāʻawi nei kēia mau pilikia hoʻoponopono kaiapili i ka neʻe ʻana o ka hanauna mai ke kākoʻo makapō no ka hana hewa ʻana i ka addiction a me ke kālā no ka ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo a me nā kikowaena lapaʻau i hōʻike ʻia i ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi.

ʻOiai ʻaʻohe mea kālai'āina makemake e nānā nāwaliwali i ka hewa, ʻo kēia neʻe lohi ʻana i ka manaʻo o ka lehulehu e ʻike i ka decriminalization a me ka hoʻoponopono ʻana i ka marijuana ma ka hapa nui o nā ʻāina i hoʻomohala ʻia e ka hopena o 2020s. ʻO kēia deregulation e hoʻomaʻamaʻa i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka marijuana i waena o ka lehulehu, e like me ka pau ʻana o ka pāpā ʻana, e alakaʻi i ka decriminalization o nā lāʻau lapaʻau hou aʻe i ka wā e hele ai. ʻOiai ʻaʻole ia e alakaʻi i ka piʻi nui ʻana o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka lāʻau lapaʻau, e ʻike maoli ʻia kahi puʻupuʻu i hoʻohana ʻia ma waena o ka lehulehu.

Nā lāʻau lapaʻau e hiki mai ana a me nā kiʻekiʻe e hiki mai ana

I kēia manawa ua hiki mai ka ʻāpana o kēia mokuna i paipai i ka hapa nui o ʻoukou e heluhelu (a i ʻole e lele) ma nā pōʻaiapili āpau ma luna: nā lāʻau lapaʻau e hiki mai ana e hāʻawi iā ʻoe i kou mau kiʻekiʻe e hiki mai ana!

Ma ka hopena o nā makahiki 2020 a me nā makahiki 2030, nā holomua i nā holomua hou e like me CRISPR (i wehewehe ʻia ma mokuna ekolu o kā mākou Future of Health series) e hiki ai i nā ʻepekema hale hana a me nā ʻepekema hale kaʻa ke hana i kahi ʻano o nā mea kanu genetically engineered a me nā kemika me nā waiwai psychoactive. Hiki ke hana ʻia kēia mau lāʻau lapaʻau i mea palekana, a ʻoi aku ka ikaika ma mua o ka mea ma ka mākeke i kēia lā. Hiki ke hoʻohana hou ʻia kēia mau lāʻau lapaʻau e loaʻa i nā ʻano kiʻekiʻe kikoʻī loa, a hiki ke hana ʻia i ka physiology kūʻokoʻa a i ʻole DNA o ka mea hoʻohana (ʻo ka mea hoʻohana waiwai ʻoi aku ka pololei).

Akā ma nā makahiki 2040, e lilo loa nā kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe i ka kemika.

E hoʻomanaʻo ʻo nā lāʻau leʻaleʻa āpau e hana ai ke hoʻōla a keʻakeʻa paha i ka hoʻokuʻu ʻana o kekahi mau kemika i loko o kou lolo. Hiki ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia kēia hopena e nā implants lolo. A mahalo i ke kahua e puka mai ana o Brain-Computer Interface (wehewehe ʻia ma mokuna ekolu o kā mākou ʻO ka wā e hiki mai ana o nā kamepiula series), ʻaʻole mamao loa kēia mua aku e like me kou manaʻo. Ua hoʻohana ʻia nā implants Cochlear no nā makahiki ma ke ʻano he lāʻau ʻāpana-a-piha no ka kuli, ʻoiai ua hoʻohana ʻia nā mea hoʻoulu o ka lolo hohonu e mālama ai i ka maʻi epilepsy, Alzheimer, a me Parkinson.

Ma hope o ka manawa, e loaʻa iā mākou nā lolo BCI e hiki ke hoʻololi i kou ʻano - maikaʻi no ka poʻe e loaʻa ana i ke kaumaha mau loa, a maikaʻi hoʻi no nā mea hoʻohana lāʻau makemake i ka swiping app ma kā lākou kelepona e hoʻāla i kahi manaʻo euphoric 15 mau minuke o ke aloha a hauʻoli paha. . A i ʻole pehea e hoʻohuli ai i kahi polokalamu e hāʻawi iā ʻoe i kahi orgasm koke. A i ʻole he polokalamu e hoʻopilikia i kāu ʻike ʻike, ʻano like me nā kānana maka o Snapchat me ke kelepona. ʻOi aku ka maikaʻi, hiki ke hoʻolālā ʻia kēia mau kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe e hāʻawi mau iā ʻoe i kahi kiʻekiʻe kiʻekiʻe, ʻoiai e hōʻoiaʻiʻo ana ʻaʻole ʻoe e overdose.

ʻO nā mea a pau, e hoʻoulu ʻia ka moʻomeheu pop a i ʻole counterculture craze o nā makahiki 2040 e nā polokalamu i hoʻolālā maikaʻi ʻia, digital, psychoactive. A ʻo ia ke kumu ʻaʻole e hele mai nā haku lāʻau lapaʻau o ka lā ʻapōpō mai Kolombia a me Mekiko mai, e hele mai lākou mai Silicon Valley.

I kēia manawa, ma ka ʻaoʻao lāʻau lapaʻau, e hoʻomau ka puka ʻana o nā labs lapaʻau me nā ʻano hou o nā ʻeha a me nā mea hoʻomaha e hoʻomāinoino ʻia e ka poʻe e loaʻa ana i nā maʻi maʻi. Pēlā nō, e hoʻomau ka hana ʻana o nā lāʻau lapaʻau i hoʻopaʻa kālā pilikino i nā lāʻau lapaʻau hou e hoʻomaikaʻi ai i nā ʻano kino e like me ka ikaika, ka wikiwiki, ka hoʻomanawanui, ka manawa hoʻihoʻi, a ʻo ka mea nui loa, e hana pēlā i ka wā e paʻakikī loa ana ka ʻike ʻana e nā anti- nā keʻena doping—hiki iā ʻoe ke koho i nā mea kūʻai aku e huki ʻia kēia mau lāʻau.

A laila hele mai kaʻu punahele ponoʻī, nootropics, kahi māla e komo i loko o ke kahawai ma waena o 2020s. Inā makemake ʻoe i kahi waihona nootropic maʻalahi e like me ka caffeine a me L-theanine (ʻo kaʻu punahele) a i ʻole kekahi mea i ʻoi aku ka holomua e like me ka piracetam a me ka choline combo, a i ʻole nā lāʻau lapaʻau e like me Modafinil, Adderall, a me Ritalin, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o nā kemika holomua ma ka mākeke e hoʻohiki ana i hoʻonui ʻia. ka nānā ʻana, ka manawa pane, ka mālama ʻana i ka hoʻomanaʻo, a me ka noʻonoʻo. ʻOiaʻiʻo, inā mākou e kamaʻilio nei e pili ana i nā implants lolo, a laila ʻo ka hui ʻana o ko mākou lolo me ka Pūnaewele e hoʻolilo i kēia mau mea hoʻoikaika kino a pau ...

Ma ka holoʻokoʻa, inā aʻo kēia mokuna iā ʻoe i kekahi mea, ʻo ia ka mea e hiki mai ana ʻaʻole e pepehi i kou kiʻekiʻe. Inā ʻoe i loko o nā mokuʻāina i hoʻololi ʻia, ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi o nā koho lāʻau e loaʻa iā ʻoe i nā makahiki e hiki mai ana, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi, palekana, ʻoi aku ka nui, a ʻoi aku ka maʻalahi ma mua o kēlā me kēia manawa o ka mōʻaukala kanaka.