India na Pakistan; Ụnwụ na fiefdoms: Geopolitics of Climate Change

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India na Pakistan; Ụnwụ na fiefdoms: Geopolitics of Climate Change

    Amụma a na-adịghị mma ga-elekwasị anya na India na Pakistani geopolitics dị ka ọ na-emetụta mgbanwe ihu igwe n'etiti afọ 2040 na 2050. Ka ị na-agụ n'ihu, ị ga-ahụ mba abụọ na-asọ mpi na-alụ ọgụ na ọgba aghara ụlọ na-eme ihe ike ka mgbanwe ihu igwe na-apụnara ha ihe. ike inye ndị mmadụ na-eto eto ngwa ngwa nri. Ị ga-ahụ ka ndị abụọ na-agba mgba na-agbalịsi ike ijidesi ike site n'ịkwalite ọkụ nke iwe ọha na eze megide ibe ha, na-esetịpụ ebe maka agha nuklia niile. N'ikpeazụ, ị ga-ahụ njikọ na-atụghị anya ya na-etolite iji tinye aka megide oke mbibi nuklia, ma na-agba ume mgbasawanye nke nuklia n'ofe Middle East.

    Ma tupu anyị amalite, ka anyị doo anya n'ihe ole na ole. Ihe onyonyo a — ọdịnihu geopolitical nke India na Pakistan — esighị n'ikuku dị mkpa pụta. Ihe niile ị na-achọ ịgụ gbadoro ụkwụ na ọrụ amụma amụma gọọmentị dị na United States na United Kingdom, yana ozi sitere na ọtụtụ ụlọ ọrụ na-eche echiche nke onwe na nke gọọmentị, yana ọrụ ndị nta akụkọ, gụnyere Gywnne. Dyer, onye edemede na-eduga na ngalaba a. Edepụtara njikọ na ọtụtụ isi mmalite ndị ejiri na njedebe.

    N'elu nke ahụ, foto a na-adaberekwa n'echiche ndị a:

    1. Ntinye ego gọọmentị zuru ụwa ọnụ iji kpachi ma ọ bụ tụgharịa mgbanwe ihu igwe ga-anọgide na-agafeghị oke na adịghị adị.

    2. Enweghị mbọ ọ bụla na mbara ala geoengineering.

    3. Ọrụ anyanwụ nke anyanwụ adịghị ada n'okpuru ọnọdụ ya ugbu a, si otú a na-ebelata okpomọkụ zuru ụwa ọnụ.

    4. Enweghị nnukwu ọganiihu emepụtara na ike njikọta, ọ nweghịkwa nnukwu ego etinyere n'ụwa niile n'ime mkpochapụ nke mba na akụrụngwa ugbo kwụ ọtọ.

    5. N'afọ 2040, mgbanwe ihu igwe ga-aga n'ihu ruo n'ọkwa ebe ikuku griin haus (GHG) dị na ikuku gafere akụkụ 450 kwa nde.

    6. Ị na-agụ mmalite anyị maka mgbanwe ihu igwe na mmetụta na-adịghị mma ọ ga-enwe na mmiri ọṅụṅụ anyị, ọrụ ugbo, obodo ndị dị n'ụsọ oké osimiri, na ụdị osisi na anụmanụ ma ọ bụrụ na emeghị ihe megide ya.

    N'iburu echiche ndị a n'uche, biko jiri obi mepere emepe gụọ amụma ndị a.

    Agha mmiri

    Ọ dịghị ebe ọ bụla n'ụwa bụ ihe iyi egwu nke agha nuklia niile kwere omume karịa India na Pakistan. Ihe kpatara ya: mmiri, ma ọ bụ karịa, enweghị ya.

    Ọtụtụ n'ime Central Asia na-enweta mmiri ya site na osimiri Eshia na-asọpụta site na Himalaya na ala Tibet. Ndị a gụnyere osimiri Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Salween, Mekong, na osimiri Yangtze. N'ime iri afọ ndị na-abịanụ, mgbanwe ihu igwe ga-eji nwayọọ nwayọọ na-apụ n'elu glaciers oge ochie nọ ọdụ n'elu ugwu ndị a. Na mbụ, okpomọkụ na-arị elu ga-ebute oke idei mmiri n'oge okpomọkụ ọtụtụ iri afọ ka glaciers na mkpọ snow na-agbaze n'ime osimiri, na-amụba na mba ndị gbara ya gburugburu.

    Mana mgbe ụbọchị na-abịa (n'ime afọ 2040) mgbe a napụrụ ndị Himalaya kpamkpam, osimiri isii ahụ a kpọtụrụ aha n'elu ga-adaba na ndò nke mbụ ha. Ọnụego mmiri nke mmepeanya n'ofe Eshia dabere na puku afọ ga-ebelata nke ukwuu. N'ikpeazụ, osimiri ndị a bụ isi na nkwụsi ike nke mba niile nke oge a na mpaghara. Ọdịda ha ga-eme ka ọtụtụ esemokwu sirila kemgbe ọtụtụ iri afọ.

    Mgbọrọgwụ esemokwu

    Osimiri ndị ahụ na-ebelata agaghị emerụ India nke ukwuu, n'ihi na ọtụtụ n'ime ihe ọkụkụ ya bụ mmiri ozuzo. N'aka nke ọzọ, Pakistan nwere ala a na-agba mmiri n'ụwa kasị ukwuu, na-eme ka ọrụ ugbo kwe omume n'ala nke na-agaghị abụ ọzara. A na-eji mmiri e wetara n’usoro Osimiri Indus eme ihe ụzọ atọ n’ụzọ anọ nke nri ya, karịsịa site n’osimiri Indus, Jhelum, na osimiri Chenab nke nwere glacier. Mfu nke mmiri si na usoro osimiri a ga-abụ ọdachi, ọkachasị ebe a na-atụ anya na ndị Pakistan ga-eto site na nde 188 na 2015 ruo nde 254 site na 2040.

    Kemgbe nkebi na 1947, ise n'ime osimiri isii na-azụ usoro osimiri Indus (nke Pakistan dabere) nọ n'ókèala ndị India na-achị. Ọtụtụ n'ime osimiri ahụ nwekwara isi mmiri ha na steeti Kashmir, ókèala a na-esekarị okwu kwa afọ. Ebe ọ bụ na Pakistan na-ebunye mmiri nke ndị iro ya kacha na-achịkwa, ọ gaghị ekwe omume ịpụ na ọgụ.

    Nchekwa nri

    Mbelata nke nnweta mmiri nwere ike ime ka ọrụ ugbo na Pakistan na-esote agaghị ekwe omume. Ka ọ dị ugbu a, India ga-enwe nkụda mmụọ yiri nke ahụ ka ọnụ ọgụgụ ya na-eto site na ijeri 1.2 taa ruo ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ ijeri 1.6 site na 2040.

    Nnyocha nke ndị India na-eche echiche Integrated Research and Action for Development chọpụtara na ịrị elu Celsius abụọ na nkezi okpomọkụ zuru ụwa ọnụ ga-ebelata mmepụta nri India site na pasent 25. Mgbanwe ihu igwe ga-eme ka mmiri ozuzo n'oge okpomọkụ (na ọtụtụ ndị ọrụ ugbo na-adabere na ya) na-adịghị adịkarị, ebe ọ na-emebikwa uto nke ọtụtụ ihe ọkụkụ India ọgbara ọhụrụ ebe ọ bụ na ọtụtụ agaghị eto nke ọma na okpomọkụ.

    Ọmụmaatụ, ọmụmụ nke Mahadum Ọgụgụ na-agba n'ime ụdị osikapa abụọ a na-akụkarị, ugwu Indica na ugwu Japonica, chọpụtara na ha abụọ nwere nnukwu nsogbu na okpomọkụ dị elu. Ọ bụrụ na okpomọkụ gafere ogo 35 n'oge okooko osisi ha, osisi ndị ahụ na-aghọ nke na-adịghị mma, na-enye ntakịrị, ma ọ bụrụ na ọ bụla, ọka. Ọtụtụ mba ebe okpomọkụ na Eshia ebe osikapa bụ isi nri nri na-edinarị na nsọtụ mpaghara ọnọdụ okpomọkụ Goldilocks a na okpomoku ọ bụla ọzọ nwere ike ịpụta ọdachi.

    Ihe ndị ọzọ nwere ike ịbata gụnyere usoro dị ugbu a nke klaasị etiti na-eto ngwa ngwa nke India na-anakwere atụmanya ọdịda anyanwụ nke nnukwu nri. Mgbe ị tụlere nke ahụ taa, India na-eto nke ọma iji zụọ ndị bi na ya na na 2040s, ahịa ọka mba ụwa nwere ike ọ gaghị enwe ike ikpuchi mkpirisi owuwe ihe ubi; ihe na-eme maka ọgba aghara n'ime ụlọ ga-amalite ịmalite.

    (Mkpesa dị n'akụkụ: Ọgba aghara a ga-akụda gọọmentị etiti nke ukwuu, meghere ọnụ ụzọ maka njikọta mpaghara na steeti iji weghara njikwa ma chọọ ọbụna nnwere onwe karịa mpaghara ha.)

    Ihe niile a na-ekwu, n'agbanyeghị ụkọ nri India na-atụ anya na ọ ga-eche ihu, Pakistan ga-akawanye njọ. Site na mmiri ọrụ ugbo ha na-esite na osimiri na-akpọnwụ, ngalaba ọrụ ugbo Pakistan agaghị enwe ike imepụta nri zuru oke iji gboo mkpa. N'oge dị mkpirikpi, ọnụ ahịa nri ga-ebuli elu, iwe ọha ga-agbawa, ndị otu na-achị Pakistan ga-ahụkwa mkpi dị mfe site n'ịtụgharị iwe ahụ n'ebe India nọ - emesịa, osimiri ha na-ebu ụzọ gafee India na India na-atụgharị oke pasent maka mkpa ọrụ ugbo nke ha. .

    Ọchịchị agha

    Ka okwu mmiri na nri na-amalite imebi ma India na Pakistan site n'ime, gọọmentị mba abụọ ahụ ga-anwa ime ka iwe ọha na eze megide ibe ya. Mba dị iche iche gburugburu ụwa ga-ahụ nke a na-abịa otu kilomita ma ndị isi ụwa ga-eme mgbalị pụrụ iche itinye aka maka udo maka otu ihe kpatara ya: agha zuru oke n'etiti India na-achọsi ike na Pakistan na-agba ọsọ ga-abawanye n'ime agha nuklia na-enweghị mmeri.

    N'agbanyeghị onye ga-ebu ụzọ gbuo, mba abụọ ahụ ga-enwe ike ọkụ nuklia zuru oke iji mebie ebe ndị isi bi na ibe ha. Agha dị otú ahụ ga-adịru ihe na-erughị awa 48, ma ọ bụ ruo mgbe ejiri ngwá ọrụ nuklia nke akụkụ abụọ ahụ mebie. N'ime ihe na-erughị awa 12, ọkara ijeri mmadụ ga-ekupụ n'okpuru mgbawa nuklia, na nde 100-200 ọzọ na-anwụ n'oge na-adịghị anya site na ikpughe radieshon na enweghị ihe onwunwe. A ga-enwe nkwarụ na ike na ngwa eletrik n'ofe mba abụọ ahụ kpamkpam site na mgbawa ọkụ eletrik nke isi agha nuklia ole na ole nke nchebe laser- na ngwa agha dabere na ballistic kpuchiri. N'ikpeazụ, ọtụtụ n'ime mbibi nuklia (ihe redioaktivu gbawara n'ime ikuku dị elu) ga-edozi ma mee ka ọnọdụ ahụike ahụike buru ibu na mba ndị gbara ya gburugburu dị ka Iran na Afghanistan n'ebe ọdịda anyanwụ na Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, na China n'ebe ọwụwa anyanwụ.

    Ọnọdụ dị n'elu agaghị anabata nnukwu ndị egwuregwu ụwa, ndị na-erule 2040 ga-abụ US, China na Russia. Ha niile ga-etinye aka, na-enye enyemaka agha, ume na nri. Pakistan, ebe ọ bụ onye kacha nwee olileanya, ga-erigbu ọnọdụ a maka enyemaka akụ dị ka o kwere mee, ebe India ga-achọ otu ihe ahụ. O yikarịrị ka Russia ga-ebubata ihe oriri. China ga-enye akụrụngwa ume ọhụrụ na Thorium. US ga-ebuga ndị agha mmiri ya na ndị agha ikuku, na-enye nkwa ndị agha n'akụkụ abụọ ahụ yana hụ na ọ nweghị ngwa agha ballistic nuklia na-agafe ókèala India-Pakistan.

    Agbanyeghị, nkwado a agaghị abịa na-enweghị eriri. N'ịchọ ime ka ọnọdụ ahụ kwụsị kpamkpam, ike ndị a ga-achọ ka akụkụ abụọ ahụ hapụ ngwa agha nuklia ha maka mgbanwe enyemaka na-aga n'ihu. O di nwute, nke a agaghị eso Pakistan efe efe. Ogwe aka nuklia ya ga-abụ ihe nkwa maka nkwụsi ike nke ime site na nri, ume, na enyemaka agha ha ga-emepụta. Na-enweghị ha, Pakistan enweghị ohere na agha a na-eme n'ọdịnihu na India na enweghị nkwekọrịta maka enyemaka na-aga n'ihu site na ụwa.

    Steeti Arab gbara ya gburugburu agaghị ahụ nsogbu a, ndị ga-agbasi mbọ ike inweta ngwa agha nuklia nke aka ha iji nweta enyemaka enyemaka ndị yiri ya n'aka ndị mba ụwa. Mmụba a ga-eme ka Middle East bụrụ nke na-adịghị akwụsi ike, ọ ga-abụkwa na ọ ga-amanye Israel ịbawanye mmemme nuklia na agha nke ya.

    N'ụwa a n'ọdịnihu, a gaghị enwe ihe ngwọta ọ bụla dị mfe.

    Iju mmiri na ndị gbara ọsọ ndụ

    Agha n'akụkụ, anyị kwesịkwara iburu n'uche mmetụta dị ukwuu nke ihu igwe ga-enwe na mpaghara ahụ. Oké ifufe na-eme ihe ike na-arị elu n'obodo ndị dị n'ụsọ oké osimiri India, na-achụpụ ọtụtụ nde ụmụ amaala dara ogbenye n'ụlọ ha. Ka ọ dị ugbu a, Bangladesh ga-abụ nke kacha njọ. Nke atọ nke ndịda nke obodo ya, ebe nde 60 bi ugbu a, na-anọdụ ala ma ọ bụ n'okpuru oke osimiri; ka oke osimiri na-abawanye, mpaghara ahụ dum nọ n'ihe ize ndụ nke ịpụ n'okpuru oke osimiri. Nke a ga-etinye India n'ọnọdụ siri ike, n'ihi na ọ ga-atụle ọrụ enyemaka mmadụ megide ezigbo mkpa nchekwa ya nke igbochi ọtụtụ nde ndị gbara ọsọ ndụ Bangladesh iju mmiri gafere ókè ya.

    Maka Bangladesh, ibi ndụ na ndụ ndị a ga-efunahụ ga-adị ukwuu, ọ nweghịkwa nke ga-abụ ihe kpatara ya. N'ikpeazụ, mfu a nke mpaghara obodo ha kacha bi na ya ga-abụ nke China na West kpatara, n'ihi nduzi ha na mmetọ ihu igwe.

    Ihe kpatara olile-anya

    Ihe ị gụrụ bụ amụma, ọ bụghị eziokwu. Ọzọkwa, ọ bụ amụma e dere na 2015. Ọtụtụ nwere ike na ga-eme n'etiti ugbu a na 2040s iji lebara mmetụta nke mgbanwe ihu igwe, ọtụtụ nke ga-depụtara na usoro mmechi. Nke kachasị mkpa, amụma ndị e depụtara n'elu bụ nke a na-egbochi nke ukwuu site na iji teknụzụ nke oge a na ọgbọ nke taa.

    Iji mụtakwuo maka ka mgbanwe ihu igwe nwere ike isi metụta mpaghara ndị ọzọ nke ụwa ma ọ bụ ịmụta maka ihe a ga-eme ka ọ kwụsịlata, ma mechaa gbanwee mgbanwe ihu igwe, gụọ usoro anyị gbasara mgbanwe ihu igwe site na njikọ dị n'okpuru:

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