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Europe; Rise of the brutal regimes: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Publisher, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Tue, 09/15/2020 - 11:47

This not-so-positive prediction will focus on European geopolitics as it relates to climate change between 2040 and 2050. As you read on, you’ll see a Europe that’s crippled by food shortages and widespread rioting. You’ll see a Europe where the UK pulls out of the European Union entirely, while the rest of the participating nations bow to Russia’s growing sphere of influence. And you’ll also see a Europe where much of its nations fall into the hands of ultra-nationalist governments who target the many millions of climate refugees escaping to Europe from Africa and the Middle East.

But, before we begin, let’s make a few things clear. This snapshot—this geopolitical future of Europe—wasn’t pulled out of thin air. Everything you’re about to read is based off the work of publicly available government forecasts from the United States and the United Kingdom, from a series of private and government-affiliated think tanks, as well as from the work of journalists like Gywnne Dyer, a leading writer in this field. Links to most of the sources used are listed at the end.

On top of that, this snapshot is also based on the following assumptions:

Worldwide government investments to sizably limit or reverse climate change will remain moderate to non-existent.
No attempt at planetary geoengineering is undertaken.
The sun’s solar activity does not fall below its current state, thereby reducing global temperatures.
No significant breakthroughs are invented in fusion energy, and no large-scale investments are made globally into national desalination and vertical farming infrastructure.
By 2040, climate change will have progressed to a stage where greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere exceed 450 parts per million.
You read our intro to climate change and the not-so-nice effects it‘ll have on our drinking water, agriculture, coastal cities, and plant and animal species if no action is taken against it.

With these assumptions in mind, please read the following forecast with an open mind.

Food and the tale of two Europes

One of the most significant struggles climate change will inflict on Europe during the late 2040s will be food security. Rising temperatures will cause vast stretches of Southern Europe to lose much of its arable (farmable) land to extreme heat. In particular, large southern countries like Spain and Italy, as well as smaller eastern nations like Montenegro, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Macedonia, and Greece, will all face among the most extreme temperature rises, making traditional farming increasingly difficult.

Even though water availability won’t be as much an issue for Europe as it will be for Africa and the Middle East, the extreme heat will stop the germination cycle of many European crops.

For example, studies run by the University of Reading on two of the most widely grown varieties of rice, lowland indica, and upland japonica, found that both were highly vulnerable to higher temperatures. Specifically, if temperatures exceeded 35 degrees Celsius during their flowering stage, the plants would become sterile, bearing little if any grains. Many tropical and Asian countries where rice is the main staple food already lie on the very edge of this Goldilocks temperature zone, so any further warming could spell disaster. The same danger is present for many European staple crops like wheat and maize once the temperature rises past their respective Goldilocks zones.