China, kuwuka kwa hegemon yatsopano yapadziko lonse lapansi: Geopolitics of Climate Change

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

China, kuwuka kwa hegemon yatsopano yapadziko lonse lapansi: Geopolitics of Climate Change

    Kuneneratu kopanda bwino kumeneku kudzayang'ana kwambiri pazandale zaku China monga zikugwirizana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pakati pa chaka cha 2040 ndi 2050. Pamene mukuwerengabe, muwona dziko la China lomwe latengeka ndi kugwa chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo. Izi zati, muwerenganso za utsogoleri wake potsatira njira yokhazikika yanyengo padziko lonse lapansi komanso momwe utsogoleriwu ungakhazikitsire dzikolo mkangano wachindunji ndi US, zomwe zitha kudzetsa Nkhondo Yozizira yatsopano.

    Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale ku China - silinafotokozedwe bwino. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, magulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani ngati Gwynne Dyer, a. wolemba wamkulu m'munda uno. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zogwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

    Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

    1. Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.

    2. Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.

    3. Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.

    4. Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.

    5. Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.

    6. Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

    Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

    China pamphambano

    Zaka za m'ma 2040 zidzakhala zaka khumi zovuta kwambiri ku People's Republic of China. Dzikoli likhoza kugawika m'maboma osweka kapena kukhazikika kukhala mphamvu yayikulu yomwe imabera dziko lonse ku US.

    Madzi ndi chakudya

    Pofika m'ma 2040, kusintha kwa nyengo kudzakhala ndi vuto lalikulu m'malo osungira madzi opanda mchere ku China. Kutentha ku Tibetan Plateau kudzakwera pakati pa madigiri awiri kapena anayi, kuchepetsa madzi oundana a madzi oundana ndi kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwa madzi otulutsidwa m'mitsinje yodutsa ku China.

    Mapiri a Tanggula awonongekanso kwambiri chifukwa cha ayezi, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mtsinje wa Yangtze uchepetse kwambiri. Panthawiyi, mvula yamkuntho ya kumpoto ya chilimwe idzakhala itasowa, ndikuchepetsa Huang He (Yellow River) chifukwa chake.

    Kuwonongeka kwa madzi opanda mchere kumeneku kudzachepetsa kwambiri zokolola zapachaka zaku China, makamaka za mbewu zazikulu monga tirigu ndi mpunga. Malo olima ogulidwa m’maiko akunja—makamaka amene ali mu Afirika—adzalandidwanso, popeza chipwirikiti chachiwawa cha nzika zovutika ndi njala m’maiko amenewo chidzapangitsa kutumiza chakudya kunja kukhala kosatheka.

    Kusakhazikika pachimake

    Chiwerengero cha anthu 1.4 biliyoni pofika m'ma 2040 pamodzi ndi kusowa kwakukulu kwa chakudya kungayambitse zipolowe ku China. Kuonjezera apo, zaka khumi za mvula yamkuntho yomwe imayambitsa kusintha kwa nyengo komanso kuwonjezeka kwa madzi a m'nyanja kudzachititsa kuti anthu ambiri othawa kwawo achoke m'midzi ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja yomwe ili ndi anthu ambiri. Ngati chipani chapakati cha chikomyunizimu chikalephera kupereka mpumulo wokwanira kwa omwe athawa kwawo komanso anjala, chidzataya chikhulupiriro pakati pa anthu ake, ndipo madera olemera atha kutalikirana ndi Beijing.

    Masewera amphamvu

    Kuti zinthu zikhazikike, dziko la China lilimbitsa mgwirizano wapadziko lonse womwe ulipo tsopano ndikumanga atsopano kuti ateteze chuma chomwe akufunikira kuti adyetse anthu ake komanso kuti chuma chake chisagwe.

    Idzayang'ana kaye kuti ipange maubwenzi apamtima ndi Russia, dziko lomwe pofika zaka za m'ma 2040 lidzakhala likupezanso mphamvu zake zazikulu pokhala limodzi mwa mayiko ochepa omwe angathe kutumiza chakudya chochuluka kunja. Kupyolera mu mgwirizano waubwenzi, dziko la China lidzagulitsa ndalama ndi kukonzanso zomangamanga ku Russia kuti zisinthe mitengo yamtengo wapatali ya zakudya zogulitsa kunja ndi chilolezo chosamutsa othawa kwawo ochulukirapo a ku China kupita ku zigawo zachonde zakum'mawa kwa Russia.

    Komanso, China idzagwiritsanso ntchito utsogoleri wake pakupanga mphamvu, popeza ndalama zake za nthawi yayitali mu Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors (LFTRs: otetezeka, otsika mtengo, mphamvu ya nyukiliya yamtsogolo) idzapindula. Mwachindunji, kufalikira kwa ma LFTR kupangitsa kuti ma mothball mazana a magetsi a malasha mdziko muno. Pamwamba pa izi, ndi ndalama zochulukirapo ku China muukadaulo wongowonjezwdwa komanso wanzeru, ikhalanso itamanga imodzi mwamagawo obiriwira obiriwira komanso otsika mtengo kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi.

    Pogwiritsa ntchito ukatswiriwu, dziko la China lidzatumiza ukadaulo wake wapamwamba wa LFTR ndi mphamvu zongowonjezwdwa kumayiko ambiri omwe ali ndi vuto la nyengo padziko lonse lapansi posinthana ndi malonda abwino ogula. Zotsatira zake: maikowa adzapindula ndi mphamvu zotsika mtengo zopangira mafuta ochulukirapo komanso zopangira ulimi, pomwe China idzagwiritsa ntchito zinthu zomwe zapezedwa kuti zipititse patsogolo zomangamanga zake zamakono, pamodzi ndi zaku Russia.

    Kudzera munjira iyi, China ipitiliza kuthamangitsa omwe akupikisana nawo aku Western ndikufooketsa chikoka cha US kumayiko ena, ndikukulitsa chithunzi chake ngati mtsogoleri pakukonzekera kukhazikika kwanyengo.

    Pomaliza, atolankhani aku China adzawongolera mkwiyo uliwonse wapanyumba kuchokera kwa nzika wamba kwa omwe akupikisana nawo mdzikolo, monga Japan ndi US.

    Kusankha kulimbana ndi Amereka

    Pomwe China ikukakamira pazachuma chake komanso mgwirizano wapadziko lonse lapansi, kulimbana kwankhondo ndi US kutha kukhala kosapeweka. Mayiko onse awiriwa ayesetsa kukhazika mtima pansi chuma chawo popikisana kuti misika ndi chuma cha mayiko otsalawo akhale okhazikika kuti azitha kuchita nawo bizinesi. Popeza kusuntha kwa zinthuzo (makamaka zinthu zosaphika) kudzachitika makamaka panyanja zazitali, asitikali apamadzi aku China afunika kukankhira kunja ku Pacific kuti ateteze mayendedwe ake. Mwanjira ina, iyenera kukankhira kumadzi olamulidwa ndi America.

    Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, malonda pakati pa mayiko awiriwa adzakhala atatsika kwambiri m'zaka makumi angapo. Ogwira ntchito okalamba aku China adzakhala okwera mtengo kwambiri kwa opanga aku US, omwe panthawiyo adzakhala atakonza njira zawo zopangira kapena kupita kumadera otsika mtengo ku Africa ndi Southeast Asia. Chifukwa cha kugwa kwamalonda uku, palibe mbali iliyonse yomwe ingamve kuti ikuyang'ana mopambanitsa chifukwa cha chitukuko chake chachuma, zomwe zimabweretsa zochitika zosangalatsa:

    Podziwa kuti gulu lake lankhondo silingapikisane ndi US mutu (kupatsidwa gulu la US la ndege khumi ndi ziwiri zonyamula ndege), China ikhoza kulunjika chuma cha US m'malo mwake. Posefukira m'misika yapadziko lonse lapansi ndi ndalama zake za madola aku US ndi ma bond achuma, dziko la China litha kuwononga mtengo wa dola ndikulepheretsa kugwiritsa ntchito kwa US kwa katundu ndi chuma chochokera kunja. Izi zitha kuchotsa kwakanthawi wopikisana naye wamkulu pamisika yapadziko lonse lapansi ndikuwonetsetsa kuti akutsogola aku China ndi Russia.

    Zachidziwikire, anthu aku America angakwiyire, pomwe ena ali ndi ufulu woyitanitsa nkhondo zonse. Mwamwayi padziko lonse lapansi, palibe mbali iliyonse yomwe ingakwanitse: China idzakhala ndi mavuto okwanira kudyetsa anthu ake ndikupewa zipolowe zapakhomo, pamene kufooka kwa dola ya US ndi vuto losatha la othawa kwawo kungatanthauze kuti silingathenso kupeza ndalama zina. nkhondo yaitali, yosakhalitsa.

    Koma mofananamo, zochitika zoterozo sizikanalola mbali iriyonse kubwerera m’mbuyo pazifukwa za ndale, m’kupita kwanthaŵi kudzetsa Nkhondo Yapakamwa yatsopano imene ikakakamiza maiko a dziko kufola mbali iriyonse ya mzere wogaŵanitsa.

    Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

    Choyamba, kumbukirani kuti zomwe mwawerengazi ndi kulosera chabe, osati zenizeni. Ndizoloseranso zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingathe ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa pano ndi 2040sto kuthana ndi zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo (zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwa mu mndandanda womaliza). Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, zonenedweratu zomwe tafotokozazi ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

    Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwanyengo kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pogwiritsa ntchito maulalo ali pansipa:

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    Russia, Kubadwa Pafamu: Nkhondo Zanyengo za WWIII P6

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    South America, Revolution: Nyama za WWIII Nkhondo P11

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    2022-12-14