Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Kodi m'tsogolomu anthu adzakhala mwamtendere, ndipo m'tsogolomu anthu adzakhala ndi nzeru zopangapanga? - Tsogolo lanzeru zopanga P6

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 13:10

Pankhani ya umunthu, tiyeni tingonena kuti tilibe mbiri yabwino kwambiri pankhani yokhalira limodzi ndi 'wina.' Kukhale kuphedwa kwa Ayuda ku Germany kapena a Tutsi ku Rwanda, ukapolo wa Afirika ndi mayiko aku Western kapena akapolo ogwidwa ku Southeast Asia. tsopano kugwira ntchito ku Middle East Gulf mayiko, kapena ngakhale kuzunzidwa komwe kukuchitika ndi anthu aku Mexico ku US kapena othawa kwawo aku Syria m'maiko osankhidwa a EU. Muzonse, kuopa kwathu mwachibadwa kwa iwo omwe timawaona kuti ndi osiyana ndi ife kungatipangitse ife kuchita zinthu zomwe mwina zimalamulira kapena (zambiri) kuwononga omwe timawaopa.

Kodi tingayembekezere china chilichonse pamene luntha lochita kupanga likhala ngati munthu?

Kodi tidzakhala m'tsogolo momwe tidzakhala ndi zolengedwa zodziyimira pawokha za AI-robot, monga tawonera mu Star Wars saga, kapena m'malo mwake tidzazunza ndikusandutsa akapolo anthu a AI monga akuwonetsera mu chilolezo cha Bladerunner? (Ngati simunawone chimodzi mwazinthu zachikhalidwe za pop izi, mukuyembekezera chiyani?)

Awa ndi mafunso omaliza a mutu uno Tsogolo la Nzeru Zopanga mndandanda akuyembekeza kuyankha. Ndizofunikira chifukwa ngati zoneneratu za ofufuza otsogola a AI zili zolondola, ndiye kuti pofika zaka zapakati, anthufe tidzakhala tikugawana dziko lathu ndi mitundu yambiri yamitundu yosiyanasiyana ya AI-chotero timapeza bwino njira yokhalira nawo mwamtendere.

Kodi anthu angapikisane ndi luntha lochita kupanga?

Khulupirirani kapena ayi, tingathe.

Munthu wamba (mu 2018) ali kale apamwamba kuposa AI apamwamba kwambiri. Monga tafotokozera m'nkhani yathu mutu woyamba, nzeru zamakono zamakono (ANIs) ndi zabwino kwambiri kuposa anthu yeniyeni ntchito zomwe anapangidwira, koma opanda chiyembekezo atafunsidwa kuti agwire ntchito kunja kwa mapangidwewo. Komano, anthu, limodzi ndi nyama zina zambiri padziko lapansi, amapambana m'kutha kusintha kwathu kukwaniritsa zolinga m'malo osiyanasiyana. tanthauzo wanzeru wochirikizidwa ndi asayansi apakompyuta Marcus Hutter ndi Shane Legg.

Mkhalidwe woterewu wa kusinthika kwa chilengedwe chonsechi suwoneka ngati chinthu chachikulu, koma umafuna luso loyesa cholepheretsa ku cholinga, kukonzekera kuyesa kuthana ndi chopingacho, kuchitapo kanthu kuti muyesere, phunzirani kuchokera ku zotsatira zake, ndikupitiriza. kukwaniritsa cholingacho. Zamoyo zonse padziko lapansi mwachibadwa zimagwiritsa ntchito kusinthasintha kumeneku maulendo masauzande mpaka mamiliyoni tsiku lililonse, ndipo mpaka AI iphunzire kuchita zomwezo, zidzakhala zida zopanda moyo.

Koma ndikudziwa zomwe mukuganiza: Mndandanda wonsewu wonena zamtsogolo zolosera zanzeru zopanga zomwe zapatsidwa nthawi yokwanira, mabungwe a AI pamapeto pake adzakhala anzeru ngati anthu, ndipo posakhalitsa, anzeru kuposa anthu.

Mutuwu sutsutsana ndi izi.

Koma msampha womwe olemba ndemanga ambiri amagweramo ndi kuganiza kuti chifukwa chisinthiko chinatenga zaka mamiliyoni ambiri kuti apange ubongo wachilengedwe, sichidzakhalanso chotheka pokhapokha ma AI akafika pomwe amatha kukonza zida zawo ndi mapulogalamu awo mozungulira zaka, miyezi. , mwinanso masiku.

Chosangalatsa n’chakuti, mfundo yakuti zamoyo zinachita kusanduka kuchokera ku zinthu zina yatsala pang’ono kumenyana, makamaka chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwa posachedwapa pankhani yokonza majini.

Choyamba chinafotokozedwa mu mndandanda wathu wa tsogolo la chisinthiko cha anthu, akatswiri a chibadwa azindikira 69 majini osiyana zomwe zimakhudza nzeru, koma pamodzi zimangokhudza IQ ndi zosakwana eyiti peresenti. Izi zikutanthauza kuti pakhoza kukhala mazana, kapena masauzande, a majini omwe amakhudza luntha, ndipo sitiyenera kungowapeza onse, komanso kuphunzira momwe tingawawonongere onse pamodzi tisanaganize zosokoneza mwana wosabadwayo. DNA.

Koma pofika pakati pa zaka za m'ma 2040, gawo la genomics lidzakhwima mpaka pamene jini la mwana wosabadwayo likhoza kujambulidwa bwino, ndipo kusintha kwa DNA yake kungakhale kopangidwa ndi makompyuta kuti adziwike molondola momwe kusintha kwa majini ake kungakhudzire tsogolo la thupi, maganizo. , ndipo chofunika kwambiri pa zokambiranazi, makhalidwe ake anzeru.

Mwa kuyankhula kwina, pofika zaka zapakati pa zaka za m'ma XNUMX, pamene ofufuza ambiri a AI amakhulupirira kuti AI idzafika ndikuposa luntha laumunthu, tidzakhala ndi luso lotha kusintha mibadwo yonse ya makanda aumunthu kuti akhale anzeru kwambiri kuposa mibadwo yakale. iwo.

Tikupita ku tsogolo lomwe anthu anzeru kwambiri adzakhala limodzi ndi superintelligent AI.

Zotsatira za dziko lodzazidwa ndi anthu anzeru kwambiri

Ndiye tikukamba zanzeru bwanji apa? Mwachidule, ma IQ a Albert Einstein ndi Stephen Hawking adapeza pafupifupi 160. Titatsegula zinsinsi za ma genomic markers omwe amawongolera nzeru, titha kuwona anthu obadwa ndi ma IQ akupitilira 1,000.

Izi ndizofunikira chifukwa malingaliro ngati Einstein ndi Hawking adathandizira kuyambitsa kupita patsogolo kwa sayansi komwe tsopano kuli maziko a dziko lathu lamakono. Mwachitsanzo, ndi kachigawo kakang’ono chabe ka anthu padziko lonse amene amamvetsa chilichonse chokhudza physics, koma gawo lalikulu la GDP padziko lonse lapansi limadalira zimene wapeza—umisiri wamakono monga mafoni a m’manja, njira zamakono zotumizira mauthenga (Intaneti), ndiponso GPS sangakhalepo popanda makina ochulukirachulukira. .

Poganizira izi, ndi kupita patsogolo kotani komwe anthu angakhale nako ngati titabereka mbadwo wonse wa akatswiri? Mazana a mamiliyoni a Einstein?

Yankho silingathe kuganiza chifukwa dziko silinawonepo anthu anzeru kwambiri ngati awa.

Nanga anthuwa adzakhala otani?

Kuti mumve kukoma, tangoganizirani nkhani ya munthu wanzeru kwambiri, William James Sidis (1898-1944), yemwe anali ndi IQ pafupifupi 250. Anatha kuwerenga ndi zaka ziwiri. Analankhula zinenero zisanu ndi zitatu pofika zaka zisanu ndi chimodzi. Analoledwa ku yunivesite ya Harvard ali ndi zaka 11. Ndipo Sidis ndi wanzeru kwambiri kuposa zomwe akatswiri a sayansi ya zamoyo amanena kuti tsiku lina munthu akhoza kukhala ndi kusintha kwa majini.

(M'mbali: tikungokamba za luntha pano, sitikhudza ngakhale kusintha kwa majini komwe kungatipangitse kukhala opitilira umunthu. Werengani zambiri pano.)

M'malo mwake, ndizotheka kuti anthu ndi AI atha kusinthika popanga njira yabwino yosinthira malingaliro, pomwe AI yapamwamba imathandiza akatswiri aza majini kudziwa bwino ma genome amunthu kuti apange anthu anzeru kwambiri, anthu omwe adzagwira ntchito yopanga AI yanzeru kwambiri, ndi zina zotero. pa. Kotero, inde, monga momwe ofufuza a AI amaneneratu, Dziko Lapansi likhoza kukumana ndi kuphulika kwa nzeru pakati pa zaka zapakati, koma kutengera zokambirana zathu mpaka pano, anthu (osati AI okha) adzapindula ndi kusintha kumeneku.

Cyborgs pakati pathu

Kutsutsa koyenera pa mkangano uwu wokhudza anthu anzeru kwambiri ndikuti ngakhale titadziwa kusintha kwa majini pofika zaka zapakati pazaka, zingatenge zaka zina 20 mpaka 30 kuti mbadwo watsopanowu wa anthu ukhwime kufikira pomwe ungathandizire kupititsa patsogolo chitukuko chathu. anthu komanso ngakhale masewera anzeru pambali pa AI. Kodi kusakhazikika uku sikungapatse AI chiyambi chofunikira motsutsana ndi anthu ngati ataganiza zosintha 'zoipa'?

Ichi ndichifukwa chake, monga mlatho pakati pa anthu amasiku ano ndi anthu opambana a mawa, kuyambira m'ma 2030, tiwona zoyambira za gulu latsopano la anthu: cyborg, wosakanizidwa wa anthu ndi makina.

(Kunena chilungamo, malingana ndi mmene mumafotokozera ma cyborgs, mwaukadaulo alipo kale—makamaka, anthu okhala ndi ziwalo zopindika chifukwa cha mabala ankhondo, ngozi, kapena zilema zobadwa nazo. 'tiyang'ana pa ma prosthetics omwe amatanthauza kukulitsa malingaliro athu ndi luntha.)

Choyamba tinakambirana m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo Lamakompyuta ofufuza pakali pano akupanga gawo la bioelectronics lotchedwa Brain-Computer Interface (BCI). Kumaphatikizapo kugwiritsa ntchito chipangizo chojambulira ubongo kapena implant kuti muone mmene ubongo wanu umayendera, kuwasintha kukhala ma code, kenako n’kuwagwirizanitsa ndi malamulo oyendetsera chilichonse chimene chimayendetsedwa ndi kompyuta.

Tidakali m'masiku oyambirira, koma pogwiritsa ntchito BCI, odulidwa ziwalo tsopano kuyesa miyendo ya robotic kulamuliridwa mwachindunji ndi malingaliro awo, m'malo mogwiritsa ntchito masensa omwe amamangiriridwa ku chitsa chawo. Momwemonso, anthu olumala kwambiri (monga anthu omwe ali ndi quadriplegia) ali pano kugwiritsa ntchito BCI kuyendetsa njinga zawo za olumala ndikuwongolera zida za robotic. Koma kuthandiza anthu odulidwa ziwalo ndi olumala kukhala ndi moyo wodziyimira pawokha si kuchuluka kwa zomwe BCI ingathe kuchita.

Zomwe mu 2030s zidzawoneka ngati chisoti kapena chotchinga tsitsi pamapeto pake zidzapereka njira zopangira ubongo (mochedwa-2040s) zomwe zidzalumikiza malingaliro athu kumtambo wa digito (Intaneti). Pamapeto pake, prosthesis yaubongo iyi ikhala ngati gawo lachitatu la malingaliro athu - kotero pomwe ma hemispheres athu akumanzere ndi kumanja amayang'anira luso lathu lanzeru komanso luso lathu loganiza bwino, gawo latsopanoli, lodyetsedwa ndi mitambo, la digito lithandizira kuti zidziwitso zitheke komanso kukulitsa chidziwitso. zikhumbo zomwe anthu nthawi zambiri amalephera kufanana ndi anzawo a AI, zomwe ndi liwiro, kubwerezabwereza, ndi kulondola.

Ndipo ngakhale zoyika muubongozi sizidzakulitsa luntha lathu, zidzatipangitsa kukhala okhoza komanso odziyimira pawokha, monga momwe mafoni athu amachitira masiku ano.

Tsogolo lodzala ndi nzeru zosiyanasiyana

Nkhani zonsezi za ma AI, ma cyborgs ndi anthu anzeru kwambiri zimatsegula mfundo ina yofunika kuiganizira: M'tsogolomu mudzawona mitundu yambiri yanzeru yochuluka kuposa yomwe takhala tikuionapo m'mbiri ya anthu kapena dziko lapansi.

Taganizirani izi, kumapeto kwa zaka za zana lino, tikulankhula za dziko lamtsogolo lodzaza ndi:

Nzeru za tizilombo
Nzeru za zinyama
Nzeru zaumunthu
Cybernetically yopititsa patsogolo nzeru zaumunthu
Artificial general intelligences (AGI)
Artificial superintelligences (ASI)
Anthu anzeru kwambiri
Cybernetically yopititsa patsogolo nzeru zapamwamba zaumunthu
Malingaliro osakanizidwa amunthu-AI
Zina zingapo zomwe zili pakati pamagulu zomwe timalimbikitsa owerenga kuti akambirane ndikugawana nawo gawo la ndemanga.

Mwanjira ina, dziko lathu lili kale ndi mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zamoyo, iliyonse ili ndi mitundu yakeyake yanzeru, koma m'tsogolomu mudzawona mitundu yambiri yanzeru, nthawi ino ikukulitsa makwerero apamwamba a chidziwitso. Choncho monga momwe mbadwo wamakono ukuphunzirira kugawana dziko lathu ndi tizilombo ndi zinyama zomwe zimathandizira ku chilengedwe chathu, mibadwo yamtsogolo iyenera kuphunzira kulankhulana ndi kugwirizana ndi mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya nzeru zomwe sitingathe kuziganizira lero.

Zowona, mbiri imatiuza kuti 'kugawana' sikunakhale koyenera kwa anthu. Zamoyo mazanamazana mpaka masauzande zatha chifukwa cha kufalikira kwa anthu, zangotsala pang'ono kuti zitukuke zotsogola kwambiri zasowa polandidwa maufumu okulirakulira.

Masokawa amabwera chifukwa cha kusowa kwa anthu pazinthu (zakudya, madzi, zopangira, ndi zina zotero) ndipo mwa zina, mantha ndi kusakhulupirirana komwe kumachitika pakati pa anthu akunja kapena anthu. Mwa kuyankhula kwina, masoka akale ndi amasiku ano ndi chifukwa cha zifukwa zakale monga chitukuko chokha, ndipo zidzangowonjezereka ndi kuyambitsidwa kwa magulu onse atsopanowa anzeru.

Chikhalidwe cha dziko lapansi lodzaza ndi zidziwitso zosiyanasiyana

Zodabwitsa ndi mantha ndi malingaliro awiri omwe angafotokoze mwachidule malingaliro otsutsana omwe anthu adzakumane nawo akadzalowa m'dziko lapansi.

'Ndikudabwitseni' ndi luntha laumunthu lomwe limagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga nzeru zatsopano za anthu ndi AI, ndi mwayi womwe angapange. Ndiyeno 'mantha' chifukwa cha kusamvetsetsa ndi kuzolowerana ndi mibadwo yamakono ya anthu idzakhala ndi mibadwo yamtsogolo ya zolengedwa 'zotukuka' izi.

Kotero monga momwe dziko la nyama silingathere kumvetsetsa kwa tizilombo tating'onoting'ono, ndipo dziko la anthu silingathe kumvetsa nyama wamba, dziko la AIs ngakhale anthu anzeru kwambiri adzakhala mopitirira malire a masiku ano. anthu wamba adzatha kumvetsa.

Ndipo ngakhale mibadwo yamtsogolo idzatha kulumikizana ndi aluntha apamwambawa, sizili ngati tikhala ndi zinthu zambiri zofanana. M'mitu yomwe imayambitsa ma AGI ndi ma ASI, tidafotokoza chifukwa chake kuyesa kuganiza zanzeru za AI ngati luntha la anthu kungakhale kulakwitsa.

Mwachidule, malingaliro achilengedwe omwe amatsogolera malingaliro amunthu ndi cholowa chachilengedwe chochokera ku mibadwo yambiri ya anthu omwe amafunafuna chuma, okwatirana, mgwirizano, kukhala ndi moyo, ndi zina zotero. Future AI sidzakhala ndi katundu wosinthika. M'malo mwake, nzeru za digito izi zidzakhala ndi zolinga, njira zoganizira, machitidwe amtengo wapatali kwa iwo okha.

Momwemonso, monga momwe anthu amakono aphunzirira kupondereza mbali za zilakolako za umunthu wawo chifukwa cha luntha lathu (mwachitsanzo, timaletsa ogonana nawo tikakhala pa maubwenzi odzipereka; timayika miyoyo yathu pachiswe chifukwa cha alendo chifukwa cha malingaliro ongoganizira za ulemu ndi ukoma, ndi zina zotero). , anthu a m'tsogolomu angagonjetsetu chibadwa chachibadwa chimenechi. Ngati izi zingatheke, ndiye kuti tikuchitadi ndi alendo, osati gulu latsopano la anthu.

Kodi padzakhala mtendere pakati pa mafuko apamwamba amtsogolo ndi enafe?

Mtendere umabwera chifukwa chokhulupirirana ndipo kukhulupirirana kumabwera chifukwa chodziwana bwino komanso zolinga zomwe timagawana. Titha kuchotsa kuzolowerana patebulo popeza tidakambirana kale momwe anthu osalimbikitsidwa omwe ali ndi zochepa zofanana, mwachidziwitso, ndi luntha zapamwambazi.

Muzochitika zina, kuphulika kwa nzeru kumeneku kudzaimira kuwuka kwa mtundu watsopano wakusalingana, womwe umapangitsa kuti magulu a anthu azidziwitso azitha kukhala osatheka kuti anthu a m'magulu apansi atuluke. Ndipo monga momwe kusiyana kwachuma pakati pa olemera ndi osauka kukuyambitsa chipwirikiti lerolino, kusiyana pakati pa magulu osiyanasiyana/anthu anzeru kungayambitse mantha ndi mkwiyo umene ukhoza kusanduka chizunzo chamitundumitundu kapena nkhondo yotheratu. Kwa ena owerenga mabuku azithunzithunzi omwe ali kumeneko, izi zitha kukukumbutsani mbiri yakale yozunzidwa kuchokera ku Marvel's X-men franchise.

Zomwe zimachitikanso ndizakuti aluntha apamwamba amtsogolowa angopeza njira zosinthira malingaliro anthu osavuta kuti awalandire m'magulu awo - kapena mpaka pomwe amapewa ziwawa zonse.

Ndiye, ndi zochitika ziti zomwe zidzapambane?

Mwachiwonekere, tiwona chinachake chikusewera pakati. Kumayambiriro kwa kusintha kwanzeru uku, tiwona momwe zimakhalira 'technopanic,' Katswiri wa zamalamulo ndi ndondomeko zaukadaulo, Adam Thierer, akulongosola motsatira chikhalidwe chanthawi zonse:

Kusiyana kwa mibadwo komwe kumabweretsa kuopa zatsopano, makamaka zomwe zimasokoneza chikhalidwe cha anthu kapena kuthetsa ntchito (werengani za zotsatira za AI m'moyo wathu). Tsogolo la Ntchito mndandanda);
"Hypernostalgia" yamasiku abwino akale omwe, kwenikweni, sanali abwino;
Chilimbikitso kwa atolankhani ndi akatswiri kuti aziopa-zaukadaulo watsopano ndi zomwe zikuchitika posinthana ndi kudina, mawonedwe, ndi kugulitsa malonda;
Zokonda zapadera zokomerana wina ndi mnzake ndalama za boma kapena zochita kutengera momwe gulu lawo limakhudzidwira ndiukadaulo watsopanowu;
Maganizo a Elitist ochokera kwa otsutsa zamaphunziro ndi chikhalidwe omwe amawopa matekinoloje atsopano omwe anthu ambiri amatengera;
Anthu akuwonetsera mikangano yamakhalidwe ndi chikhalidwe ya dzulo ndi lero pa matekinoloje atsopano a mawa.

Koma monga kutsogola kwatsopano kulikonse, anthu adzazolowera. Koma chofunika kwambiri n’chakuti, ngakhale kuti mitundu iŵiri sangaganize mofanana, mtendere ungapezeke mwa kuchita zinthu mogwirizana.

Mwachitsanzo, ma AI atsopanowa amatha kupanga matekinoloje atsopano ndi machitidwe kuti apititse patsogolo miyoyo yathu. Ndipo pobwezera, ndalama ndi thandizo la boma zidzapitiriza kupititsa patsogolo zofuna za AI, makamaka chifukwa cha mpikisano wothamanga pakati pa mapulogalamu a AI aku China ndi US.

Mofananamo, ponena za kupanga anthu opambana aumunthu, magulu achipembedzo m’maiko ambiri adzakana chizoloŵezi chowononga makanda awo mwachibadwa. Komabe, kuchitapo kanthu ndi chidwi cha dziko chidzaphwanya pang'onopang'ono chotchinga ichi. M'mbuyomu, makolo angayesedwe kugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wosintha ma genetic kuti awonetsetse kuti ana awo amabadwa ndi matenda komanso opanda chilema, koma cholinga choyambiriracho ndi malo otsetsereka oti apititse patsogolo kwambiri majini. Momwemonso, ngati China iyamba kukulitsa mibadwo yonse ya anthu awo, dziko la US lidzakhala ndi njira yotsatirira kapena chiopsezo chobwerera m'mbuyo zaka makumi awiri pambuyo pake - komanso dziko lonse lapansi.

Ngakhale kuti chaputala chonsechi chikuwerengedwa mwamphamvu, tiyenera kukumbukira kuti zonsezi zidzachitika pang'onopang'ono. Zidzapangitsa dziko lathu kukhala losiyana kwambiri komanso lodabwitsa kwambiri. Koma tidzazolowera, ndipo lidzakhala tsogolo lathu.