Tsogolo la kukalamba: Tsogolo la Chiwerengero cha Anthu P5

Zaka makumi atatu zikubwerazi idzakhala nthawi yoyamba m'mbiri ya anthu okalamba kukhala gawo lalikulu la anthu. Iyi ndi nkhani yopambana yowona, kupambana kwa anthu pakufunitsitsa kwathu kukhala ndi moyo wautali komanso wotanganidwa mpaka zaka zathu zasiliva. Kumbali ina, tsunami iyi ya anthu okalamba imabweretsanso zovuta zazikulu kudera lathu komanso chuma chathu.

Koma tisanafufuze zenizeni, tiyeni tifotokoze mibadwo yomwe yatsala pang’ono kulowa muukalamba.

Civics: M’badwo wachete

Wobadwa isanafike 1945, Civics tsopano ndi m'badwo wocheperako kwambiri ku America ndi padziko lonse lapansi, womwe uli pafupifupi 12.5 miliyoni ndi 124 miliyoni motsatana (2016). M'badwo wawo ndi womwe udamenya nawo Nkhondo Zathu Zapadziko Lonse, udakhala ndi Kukhumudwa Kwakukulu, ndikukhazikitsa mpanda wonyezimira woyera, wakumidzi, moyo wabanja lanyukiliya. Anasangalalanso ndi nyengo ya ntchito kwa moyo wonse, malo otsika mtengo, ndi (lero) ndondomeko ya penshoni yolipidwa mokwanira.

Ma Baby Boomers: Ogwiritsa ntchito ndalama zambiri moyo wawo wonse

Obadwa pakati pa 1946 ndi 1964, Boomers anali m'badwo waukulu kwambiri ku America ndi padziko lonse lapansi, masiku ano pafupifupi 76.4 miliyoni ndi 1.6 biliyoni motsatana. Ana a Civics, a Boomers anakulira m'mabanja a makolo awiri ndipo anamaliza maphunziro awo ku ntchito zotetezeka. Anakulanso panthawi ya kusintha kwakukulu kwa chikhalidwe cha anthu, kuchoka pa kusagwirizana ndi kumasulidwa kwa amayi kupita ku zikhalidwe zotsutsana ndi chikhalidwe monga rock-n-roll ndi mankhwala osokoneza bongo. Ma Boomers adapanga chuma chambiri, chuma chomwe amawononga ndalama zambiri poyerekeza ndi mibadwo yawo isanachitike komanso pambuyo pake.

Dziko likusanduka imvi

Ndi zoyambitsa izi, tsopano tiyeni tiyang'ane zowona: Pofika m'ma 2020, a Civics aang'ono kwambiri adzalowa m'zaka zawo za 90 pamene aang'ono kwambiri a Boomers adzalowa m'ma 70. Pamodzi, izi zikuyimira gawo lalikulu la anthu padziko lapansi, pafupifupi gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi a anthu omwe akucheperachepera, omwe adzalowa m'zaka zawo zaukalamba.

Kuti timvetsetse izi, titha kuyang'ana ku Japan. Pofika chaka cha 2016, m'modzi mwa anayi aku Japan ali kale ndi zaka 65 kapena kupitilira apo. Izi ndi pafupifupi 1.6 wazaka zaku Japan zogwirira ntchito pa munthu wamkulu aliyense. Pofika chaka cha 2050, chiwerengerochi chidzatsikira ku Japan wazaka zogwira ntchito pa munthu wachikulire aliyense. Kwa mayiko amakono omwe chiwerengero chawo chimadalira chitetezo cha anthu, chiŵerengero chodalira ichi ndi chochepa kwambiri. Ndipo zomwe Japan ikukumana nazo lero, mayiko onse (kunja kwa Africa ndi madera ena a Asia) adzapeza mkati mwa zaka zochepa.

The economic time bomba of demographics

Monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, chodetsa nkhawa chomwe maboma ambiri ali nacho pankhani yaimvi ndi momwe angapitirizire ndalama za Ponzi zotchedwa Social Security. Kuchuluka kwa imvi kumakhudzanso mapulogalamu a penshoni okalamba moyipa akakhala ndi kuchuluka kwa olandira (zomwe zikuchitika masiku ano) komanso pamene olandirawo achotsa zonena kuchokera kudongosolo kwa nthawi yayitali (vuto lomwe likupitilira lomwe limadalira kupita patsogolo kwachipatala mkati mwa dongosolo lathu lachipatala. ).

Nthawi zambiri, palibe chilichonse mwazinthu ziwirizi chomwe chingakhale vuto, koma kuchuluka kwa anthu masiku ano kukupanga mkuntho wabwino kwambiri.

Choyamba, mayiko ambiri a Kumadzulo amapereka ndondomeko zawo za penshoni pogwiritsa ntchito njira yolipira-monga-you-go (ie Ponzi scheme) yomwe imagwira ntchito pokhapokha ngati ndalama zatsopano zimalowetsedwera m'dongosolo kudzera mu chuma chambiri komanso ndalama zatsopano za msonkho kuchokera ku nzika zomwe zikukula. Tsoka ilo, pamene tikulowa m'dziko lomwe lili ndi ntchito zochepa (zofotokozedwa m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Ntchito mndandanda) ndipo chiwerengero cha anthu chikuchepa kwambiri m'mayiko otukuka (tafotokozedwa m'mutu wapitawu), chitsanzo cholipira-monga-mukupita chidzayamba kutha mafuta, chotheka kugwa pansi pa kulemera kwake.

Izi sizirinso chinsinsi. Kutheka kwa mapulani athu a penshoni ndi nkhani yomwe timakambirana mobwerezabwereza nthawi ya chisankho chatsopano. Izi zimapereka chilimbikitso kwa achikulire kuti apume msanga pantchito kuti ayambe kutolera macheke a penshoni pomwe dongosololi likukhalabe ndi ndalama zokwanira—potero akufulumizitsa tsiku limene mapulogalamuwa adzathe. 

Kupatula ndalama zamapulogalamu athu apenshoni, palinso zovuta zina zomwe anthu akuchedwa kwambiri. Izi zikuphatikizapo:

• Kuchepa kwa ogwira ntchito kungayambitse kukwera kwa malipiro m'magawo omwe amachedwa kutengera makompyuta ndi makina odzichitira okha;
• Kuwonjezeka kwa misonkho kwa achichepere kuti apeze ndalama zapenshoni, zomwe zingapangitse kuti achinyamata asamagwire ntchito;
• Kukula kwakukulu kwa boma kudzera pakuwonjezera ndalama zothandizira zaumoyo ndi penshoni;
• Chuma chocheperako, monga mibadwo yolemera kwambiri (Civics ndi Boomers), imayamba kuwononga ndalama zambiri kuti zithandizire zaka zawo zopuma pantchito;
• Kuchepetsa ndalama zogulira chuma chambiri chifukwa ndalama zapenshoni za anthu wamba zimasiya kupeza ndalama zabizinesi ndi ma venture capital deals kuti athe kupeza ndalama za penshoni za mamembala awo; ndi
• Kukwera kwa mitengo kwa nthawi yayitali ngati mayiko ang'onoang'ono adzakakamizika kusindikiza ndalama kuti athe kulipira mapologalamu awo akugwa.

Boma likuchitapo kanthu polimbana ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu

Chifukwa cha zochitika zonse zoipazi, maboma padziko lonse lapansi akufufuza kale ndikuyesera njira zosiyanasiyana zochepetsera kapena kupewa kuipitsitsa kwa bomba la anthu. 

M'badwo wopuma pantchito. Gawo loyamba lomwe maboma ambiri adzagwiritse ntchito ndikungowonjezera zaka zopuma pantchito. Izi zidzachedwetsa kuchuluka kwa madandaulo a penshoni ndi zaka zingapo, ndikupangitsa kuti zitheke. Komanso, mayiko ang'onoang'ono angasankhe kusiya zaka zopuma pantchito kuti apatse okalamba mphamvu zowongolera akasankha kusiya ntchito komanso nthawi yayitali yogwira ntchito. Njira imeneyi idzakhala yotchuka kwambiri pamene moyo wa munthu uyamba kupitirira zaka 150, monga momwe tafotokozera m'mutu wotsatira.

Kulembanso ntchito akuluakulu. Izi zikutifikitsa pa mfundo yachiwiri pomwe maboma azilimbikitsa mabungwe azidansi kuti alembenso anthu okalamba ntchito zawo (mwina zidzatheka chifukwa cha thandizo la ndalama ndi misonkho). Njira imeneyi yayamba kale kuyenda bwino ku Japan, kumene mabwana ena kumeneko amabwereka antchito awo opuma pantchito ngati osaganyula (ngakhale amalipidwa pang'ono). Kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama kumachepetsa kufunikira kwa chithandizo cha boma kwa akuluakulu. 

Penshoni zaumwini. M'kanthawi kochepa, boma lidzawonjezeranso zolimbikitsa kapena kukhazikitsa malamulo omwe amalimbikitsa zopereka zazikulu zamagulu achinsinsi ku ndalama zapenshoni ndi chithandizo chamankhwala.

Ndalama za msonkho. Kuonjezera misonkho, posachedwapa, kubwezera penshoni yaukalamba ndizosapeweka. Uwu ndi mtolo womwe mibadwo yachinyamata iyenera kunyamula, koma yomwe idzafewetsedwe ndi kuchepa kwa mtengo wamoyo (kufotokozedwa m'ndandanda yathu ya Tsogolo la Ntchito).

Basic Income. The Zowonjezera Zachilengedwe (UBI, yafotokozedwanso mwatsatanetsatane mu mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Ntchito) ndi ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa kwa nzika zonse payekhapayekha komanso mopanda malire, mwachitsanzo, popanda kuyesa njira kapena ntchito. Ndiboma limakupatsani ndalama zaulere mwezi uliwonse, monga penshoni yaukalamba koma kwa aliyense.

Kukonzanso dongosolo lazachuma kuti liphatikizepo UBI yolipiridwa mokwanira kudzapatsa anthu okalamba chidaliro pa zomwe amapeza ndipo chifukwa chake amawalimbikitsa kuti azigwiritsa ntchito mofanana ndi zaka zawo zantchito, m'malo mosungira ndalama zawo kuti adziteteze ku kusokonekera kwachuma kwamtsogolo. Izi zidzaonetsetsa kuti gawo lalikulu la anthu likupitiriza kuthandizira pazachuma chogwiritsa ntchito mowa.

Kukonzanso chisamaliro cha okalamba

Pamlingo wokulirapo, maboma ayesetsanso kuchepetsa ndalama zomwe anthu okalamba akukumana nazo m'njira ziwiri: choyamba, pokonzanso chisamaliro cha okalamba kuti apititse patsogolo ufulu wa okalamba kenako ndikuwongolera thanzi la okalamba.

Kuyambira ndi mfundo yoyamba, maboma ambiri padziko lonse lapansi alibe zida zokwanira kuthana ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu okalamba omwe akufunika chisamaliro chanthawi yayitali komanso chamunthu payekha. Mayiko ambiri alibe antchito oyenerera, komanso malo osungira okalamba omwe alipo.

Ichi ndichifukwa chake maboma akuthandizira njira zomwe zimathandizira kugawa chisamaliro chaokalamba ndikulola okalamba kukalamba m'malo omwe amakhala omasuka: nyumba zawo.

Nyumba zapamwamba zikusintha kuti ziphatikizepo zosankha monga kukhala pawokha, co-nyumba, chisamaliro chakunyumba ndi chisamaliro cha kukumbukira, zosankha zimene pang’onopang’ono zidzalowa m’malo mwa nyumba yosungiramo anthu okalamba, yokwera mtengo kwambiri, yamtundu umodzi. Mofananamo, mabanja ochokera m’zikhalidwe ndi mayiko ena ayamba kukhala ndi nyumba za anthu amibadwo yambiri, kumene okalamba amasamukira m’nyumba za ana awo kapena adzukulu awo (kapena mosiyana).

Mwamwayi, matekinoloje atsopano athandizira kusintha kwa chisamaliro chanyumba m'njira zosiyanasiyana.

Wearables. Zovala zowunikira zaumoyo ndi ma implants zidzayamba kuperekedwa mwachangu kwa okalamba ndi madokotala awo. Zipangizozi zidzayang'anitsitsa nthawi zonse zamoyo (ndipo pamapeto pake zamaganizo) za ovala awo akuluakulu, kugawana zomwezo ndi achibale awo aang'ono komanso oyang'anira zachipatala akutali. Izi ziwonetsetsa kuti athe kuthana ndi vuto lililonse lomwe likuwoneka kuti ali ndi thanzi labwino.

Nyumba zanzeru zoyendetsedwa ndi AI. Ngakhale zovala zomwe tatchulazi zidzagawana deta yazaumoyo ndi azaumoyo ndi achibale komanso azaumoyo, zidazi ziyambanso kugawana zomwezo ndi anthu okalamba omwe amakhala m'nyumba. Nyumba Zanzeru izi zidzayendetsedwa ndi makina anzeru opangira mitambo omwe amayang'anira okalamba akamayendayenda. nyumba zawo. Kwa okalamba, izi zitha kuwoneka ngati zitseko zikutseguka ndipo magetsi amadziyambitsa okha akamalowa m'zipinda; khitchini yodzipangira yokha yomwe imakonza zakudya zopatsa thanzi; wothandizira mawu, wolumikizidwa ndi intaneti; ndipo ngakhale kuyimbira foni kwa azachipatala ngati wamkulu achita ngozi mnyumba.

Zojambulazo. Mofanana ndi ndodo ndi ma scooters akuluakulu, mawa chithandizo chachikulu chotsatira chidzakhala zovala zofewa. Osasokonezedwa ndi ma exoskeletons opangidwa kuti apatse ogwira ntchito zomanga ndi zomangamanga mphamvu zoposa zaumunthu, zotulukazi ndi zovala zamagetsi zomwe zimavala kapena pansi pa zovala zothandizira kuyenda kwa okalamba kuti awathandize kukhala ndi moyo wokangalika, watsiku ndi tsiku (onani chitsanzo chimodzi ndi awiri).

Okalamba chisamaliro chaumoyo

Padziko lonse lapansi, chithandizo chamankhwala chikuwononga ndalama zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira za bajeti za boma. Ndipo malinga ndi OECD, okalamba amawerengera osachepera 40-50 peresenti ya ndalama zothandizira zaumoyo, katatu kapena kasanu kuposa omwe si akuluakulu. Choyipa kwambiri, pofika 2030, akatswiri ndi Malingaliro a kampani Nuffield Trust konza chiwonjezeko cha 32 peresenti ya okalamba omwe ali ndi kulumala kocheperako kapena koopsa, ndikuwonjezera 32 mpaka 50 peresenti ya okalamba omwe akudwala matenda osatha monga matenda amtima, nyamakazi, shuga, sitiroko, ndi dementia. 

Mwamwayi, sayansi ya zamankhwala ikupita patsogolo kwambiri pakutha kukhala ndi moyo wokangalika mpaka zaka zathu zazikulu. Kupendanso m'mutu wotsatirawu, zatsopanozi zimaphatikizapo mankhwala osokoneza bongo ndi majini omwe amachititsa kuti mafupa athu azikhala olimba, minofu yathu ikhale yolimba, komanso maganizo athu akuthwa.

Mofananamo, sayansi ya zamankhwala imatithandizanso kukhala ndi moyo wautali. M'mayiko otukuka, moyo wathu wapakati wakwera kale kuchoka ku ~ 35 mu 1820 kufika pa 80 mu 2003 - izi zidzangopitirira kukula. Ngakhale kuti zingakhale mochedwa kwambiri kwa ambiri a Boomers ndi Civics, Millennials ndi mibadwo yowatsatira amatha kuona bwino tsiku lomwe 100 idzakhala 40 yatsopano. Tikayika njira ina, omwe anabadwa pambuyo pa 2000 sangakalamba mofanana ndi makolo awo, agogo, ndi makolo awo anachita.

Ndipo zimenezi zikutifikitsa pa mutu wa mutu wotsatira wakuti: Bwanji ngati sitinafunikire kukalamba? Kodi zidzatanthauzanji pamene sayansi ya zamankhwala ilola anthu kukalamba osakalamba? Kodi gulu lathu lisintha bwanji?

Tsogolo la mndandanda wa anthu

Momwe Generation X idzasinthire dziko: Tsogolo la anthu P1

Momwe Zaka Chikwi zidzasinthire dziko: Tsogolo la anthu P2

Momwe Zaka Zaka 3 zidzasinthire dziko: Tsogolo la anthu PXNUMX

Kukula kwa anthu motsutsana ndi ulamuliro: Tsogolo la anthu P4

Kuchoka ku moyo wokulirapo kupita ku moyo wosafa: Tsogolo la anthu P6

Tsogolo la imfa: Tsogolo la anthu P7