Mafuta otsika mtengo kwambiri amayambitsa nthawi yongowonjezedwanso: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P2

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Mafuta otsika mtengo kwambiri amayambitsa nthawi yongowonjezedwanso: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P2

    Simungayankhule za mphamvu popanda kulankhula za mafuta (mafuta). Ndiwo maziko a moyo wa anthu amakono. Ndipotu dziko limene tikulidziwira masiku ano silikanakhalako popanda dziko lapansili. Kuyambira koyambirira kwa zaka za m'ma 1900, chakudya chathu, zinthu zomwe timagula, magalimoto athu, ndi zonse zomwe zili pakati, zakhala zikuyendetsedwa ndi mafuta kapena kupangidwa kwathunthu.

    Komabe monga momwe gweroli lakhalira lachitukuko cha anthu, mtengo wake ku chilengedwe chathu tsopano ukuyamba kuwopseza tsogolo lathu lonse. Pamwamba pa izo, ndi gwero amene wayamba kutha.

    Takhala mu nthawi ya mafuta kwa zaka mazana awiri apitawa, koma tsopano ndi nthawi yoti timvetse chifukwa chake akufika kumapeto (o, ndipo tiyeni tichite izo popanda kutchula kusintha kwa nyengo kuyambira pamene izo zanenedwa za imfa tsopano).

    Kodi Peak Oil ndi chiyani?

    Mukamva za mafuta apamwamba kwambiri, nthawi zambiri amafotokoza za Hubbert Curve chiphunzitso kuyambira kale mu 1956, wolemba Shell geologist, M. King Hubbert. Mfundo yaikulu ya chiphunzitsochi imati dziko lapansi lili ndi mafuta ochepa omwe anthu angagwiritse ntchito pa zosowa zake za mphamvu. Izi ndizomveka popeza, mwatsoka, sitikukhala m'dziko lamatsenga la elven kumene zinthu zonse zilibe malire.

    Gawo lachiwiri la chiphunzitsocho likunena kuti popeza pali mafuta ochepa pansi, pamapeto pake idzafika nthawi yomwe tidzasiya kupeza magwero atsopano amafuta komanso kuchuluka kwamafuta omwe timayamwa kuchokera kuzinthu zomwe zilipo kale "kuchuluka" ndipo pomaliza amatsika mpaka zero.

    Aliyense amadziwa kuti mafuta ochulukirapo amachitika. Pomwe akatswiri amatsutsana ndi pamene zidzachitika. Ndipo sizovuta kuwona chifukwa chake pali mkangano mozungulira izi.

    Bodza! Mitengo yamafuta ikutsika!

    Mu Disembala 2014, kukwera mtengo kwamafuta osakhazikika kudakwera. Pamene chilimwe cha 2014 mafuta akuwuluka pamtengo wa $115 pa mbiya, nyengo yozizira yotsatira idatsika mpaka $60, isanatsike pafupifupi $34 koyambirira kwa 2016. 

    Akatswiri osiyanasiyana adaganizira zomwe zidapangitsa kugwa uku—The Economist, makamaka, idawona kuti kutsika kwamitengo kudachitika pazifukwa zosiyanasiyana, kuphatikiza kuchepa kwachuma, magalimoto oyenda bwino, kupitiliza kutulutsa mafuta ku Middle East komwe kunali mavuto, komanso kuphulika kwa kupanga mafuta aku US chifukwa cha kukwera kwa kuyamwa

    Zochitika izi zaunikira chowonadi chovuta: mafuta apamwamba, m'matanthauzidwe ake achikhalidwe, zenizeni sizichitika posachedwa. Tili ndi zaka zina 100 zamafuta omwe atsala padziko lapansi ngati timawafunadi - chogwira ndichakuti, tingogwiritsa ntchito matekinoloje okwera mtengo kwambiri kuti tichotse. Pamene mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi ikukhazikika kumapeto kwa chaka cha 2016 ndikuyamba kukweranso, tifunika kuunikanso ndikuwongolera tanthauzo lathu lamafuta apamwamba kwambiri.

    Kwenikweni, monga Peak Cheap Mafuta

    Kuyambira koyambirira kwa zaka za m'ma 2000, mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi yakwera pang'onopang'ono pafupifupi chaka chilichonse, kupatulapo mavuto azachuma a 2008-09 komanso kuwonongeka kodabwitsa kwa 2014-15. Koma mitengo ikuphwanyidwa pambali, zochitika zonse ndizosatsutsika: mafuta onunkhira akukhala okwera mtengo.

    Chifukwa chachikulu cha kukweraku ndikutopa kwa nkhokwe zotsika mtengo zapadziko lonse lapansi (mafuta otsika mtengo amakhala mafuta omwe amatha kuyamwa mosavuta m'madamu akuluakulu apansi panthaka). Zambiri zomwe zatsala masiku ano ndi mafuta omwe amangotengedwa ndi njira zokwera mtengo kwambiri. Slate adasindikiza chithunzi (m'munsimu) chosonyeza zomwe zimafunika kupanga mafuta kuchokera kuzinthu zosiyanasiyana zodula komanso pamtengo wotani mafuta amayenera kukhala asanabowole mafutawo atakhala opindulitsa pachuma:

    Image kuchotsedwa.

    Mitengo yamafuta ikayamba kubwereranso (ndipo itero), mafuta okwera mtengo awa adzabweranso pa intaneti, ndikusefukira pamsika ndi mafuta okwera mtengo kwambiri. M'malo mwake, si mafuta apamwamba kwambiri omwe tiyenera kuwopa - zomwe sizingachitike kwazaka zambiri zikubwerazi - zomwe tiyenera kuchita ndi mantha. mafuta otsika mtengo. Kodi chidzachitike n'chiyani tikadzafika pamene anthu ndi mayiko onse sangakwanitse kulipira mafuta ambiri?

    'Koma bwanji za fracking?' mukufunsa. 'Kodi ukadaulo uwu sudzachepetsa mtengo mpaka kalekale?'

    Inde ndi ayi. Ukadaulo watsopano wakubowola mafuta nthawi zonse umapangitsa kuti pakhale zokolola, koma zopindulazi zimakhalanso zosakhalitsa. Kutengera pa kuyamwa, malo aliwonse atsopano obowola amatulutsa mafuta ochulukirapo poyamba, koma pafupifupi, pazaka zitatu, mitengo yopangira mafuta a bonanza imatsika ndi 85 peresenti. Pamapeto pake, fracking yakhala njira yabwino kwakanthawi kochepa pamtengo wokwera wamafuta (kunyalanyaza kuti imawononganso madzi apansi panthaka ndikupanga. anthu ambiri aku US akudwala), koma malinga ndi katswiri wa sayansi ya nthaka ku Canada David Hughes, ku US kupanga gasi wa shale kudzafika pachimake cha 2017 ndikubwerera ku 2012 pofika chaka cha 2019.

    Chifukwa chiyani mafuta otsika amafunikira

    'Chabwino,' mumadziuza nokha, 'kotero mtengo wa gasi ukukwera. Mtengo wa chilichonse umakwera ndi nthawi. Ndiko kukwera kwa mitengo basi. Eya, ndizosautsa kuti ndiyenera kulipira zambiri pa mpope, koma n'chifukwa chiyani izi ziri zazikulu choncho?'

    Zifukwa ziwiri makamaka:

    Choyamba, mtengo wamafuta umabisika mkati mwa gawo lililonse la moyo wanu wogula. Chakudya chomwe mumagula: mafuta amagwiritsidwa ntchito popanga fetereza, mankhwala ophera udzu, ndi mankhwala ophera tizilombo omwe amawaza m'minda yomwe amalimapo. Zida zamakono zomwe mumagula: mafuta amagwiritsidwa ntchito kupanga pulasitiki yake yambiri ndi zida zina zopangira. Magetsi omwe mumagwiritsa ntchito: madera ambiri padziko lapansi amawotcha mafuta kuti magetsi aziyaka. Ndipo mwachiwonekere, zida zonse zapadziko lonse lapansi, zopezera chakudya, zinthu, ndi anthu kuchokera kumalo A kupita kumalo B kulikonse padziko lapansi, nthawi iliyonse, zimayendetsedwa kwambiri ndi mtengo wamafuta. Kukwera kwamitengo kwadzidzidzi kumatha kuyambitsa kusokonezeka kwakukulu pakupezeka kwazinthu ndi ntchito zomwe mumadalira.

    Chachiwiri, dziko lathu lapansi lidakali ndi waya wambiri wamafuta. Monga tanenera m’nkhani yapitayi, malole athu onse, zombo zathu zonyamulira katundu, ndege zathu, magalimoto athu ambiri, mabasi athu, magalimoto athu aakulu—zonse zimayendera mafuta. Tikukamba za magalimoto mabiliyoni apa. Tikukamba za chitukuko chonse cha kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe ka kayendetsedwe kabwino ka anthu padziko lonse lapansi. kupereka. Ngakhale magalimoto amagetsi akupanga phokoso pamsika, zingatenge zaka zambiri asanalowe m'malo mwa zombo zathu zoyaka moto. Mucikozyanyo, cisi eeci cilibonya mbuli mbocibede ncobeni.

    Mndandanda wa zosasangalatsa m'dziko lopanda mafuta otsika mtengo

    Ambiri aife timakumbukira kusokonekera kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi kwa 2008-09. Ambiri aife timakumbukiranso kuti akatswiri amatsutsa kugwa kwa kuphulika kwa kuphulika kwa ngongole ya subprime ya US. Koma ambiri aife timayiwala zomwe zidachitika kuti chigwere: mtengo wamtengo wapatali udakwera pafupifupi $150 pa mbiya.

    Ganizirani momwe moyo wa $ 150 pa mbiya unkamveka komanso momwe zonse zidakhalira zodula. Momwe, kwa anthu ena, zidakhala zodula kwambiri ngakhale kuyendetsa galimoto kupita kuntchito. Kodi mungaimbe mlandu anthu chifukwa chosatha kulipira ngongole zawo panthawi yake?

    Kwa iwo omwe sanakumanepo ndi chiletso cha mafuta cha 1979 OPEC (ndipo ndife ambiri aife, tiyeni tikhale oona mtima apa), 2008 chinali kulawa kwathu koyamba komwe kumamveka kukhala ndi vuto lazachuma - makamaka mtengo wamafuta uyenera kukwera. pamwamba pa malire ena, 'nsonga' ina ngati mungafune. $150 pa mbiya inakhala piritsi yathu yodzipha. Zachisoni, zidatenga kutsika kwachuma kwambiri kuti mitengo yamafuta ibwerere padziko lapansi.

    Koma ndiye wowombera: $ 150 pa mbiya idzachitikanso nthawi ina mkati mwa 2020s pomwe kupanga gasi wa shale kuchokera ku US fracking kukuyamba kuchepa. Izi zikachitika, tidzathana bwanji ndi kugwa kwachuma komwe kudzachitikadi? Tikulowa mumtundu wakufa komwe chuma chikamakula, mitengo yamafuta imakwera kukwera, koma ikakwera pakati pa $ 150-200 pa mbiya, kutsika kwachuma kumayamba, kubweza chuma ndi mitengo ya gasi kubwerera pansi, kungoyambitsa. ndondomeko zonse kachiwiri. Osati zokhazo, komanso nthawi yomwe ili pakati pa kusintha kwatsopano kulikonse kudzachepa kuchoka pachuma mpaka kugwa kwachuma mpaka dongosolo lathu lachuma lamasiku ano lidzatheratu.

    Tikukhulupirira, izo zonse zinali zomveka. Zoonadi, zomwe ndikuyesera kupeza ndikuti mafuta ndiwo moyo omwe amayendetsa dziko lapansi, kuchoka pa izo amasintha malamulo a dongosolo lathu lachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Kuti muyendetse kunyumbayi, nayi mndandanda wazomwe mungayembekezere m'dziko la $150-200 pa mbiya yamafuta:

    • Mtengo wa gasi udzakwera m'zaka zina ndipo mwa ena udzakwera, kutanthauza kuti mayendedwe adzawotcha kuchuluka kwa ndalama zomwe munthu wamba amapeza pachaka.
    • Mitengo yamabizinesi idzakwera chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo yazinthu ndi zoyendera; Komanso, popeza antchito ambiri sangathenso kulipira maulendo awo aatali, mabizinesi ena amakakamizika kuwapatsa malo ogona osiyanasiyana (monga ma telecommunication kapena ndalama zolipirira zoyendera).
    • Zakudya zonse zikwera mtengo pafupifupi miyezi isanu ndi umodzi mitengo ya gasi itakwera, kutengera momwe nyengo ikukulira pamene kukwera kwamafuta kumachitika.
    • Zogulitsa zonse zidzakwera mtengo kwambiri. Izi zitha kuwoneka makamaka m'maiko omwe amadalira kwambiri zogula kuchokera kunja. Kwenikweni, yang'anani zinthu zonse zomwe mudagula m'mwezi kapena iwiri yapitayi, ngati zonse zikuti 'Made in China,' ndiye kuti mudzadziwa kuti chikwama chanu ndi chifukwa cha dziko lopweteka.
    • Mtengo wa nyumba ndi nyumba zazikuluzikulu zidzakwera chifukwa matabwa ndi zitsulo zambiri zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito pomanga zimatumizidwa kumayiko akutali.
    • Mabizinesi a E-commerce akumana ndi vuto lalikulu chifukwa kubweretsa tsiku lotsatira kudzakhala chinthu cham'mbuyomu chosatheka. Bizinesi iliyonse yapaintaneti yomwe imadalira ntchito yobweretsera kuti ibweretse katundu iyenera kuwunikanso zitsimikizo ndi mitengo yake.
    • Momwemonso, mabizinesi onse amakono ogulitsa adzawona kukwera kwamitengo komwe kumabwera chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa magwiridwe antchito ake. Njira zoperekera nthawi yomweyo zimadalira mphamvu zotsika mtengo (mafuta) kuti zigwire ntchito. Kukwera kwamitengo kudzabweretsa kusakhazikika kwadongosolo, zomwe zitha kubweza mayendedwe amakono pofika zaka khumi kapena ziwiri.
    • Kutsika kwa mitengo kwadzaoneni kudzakwera mopitirira malire a maboma.
    • Kuperewera kwa zakudya ndi zinthu zochokera kunja kudzakhala kofala kwambiri.
    • Mkwiyo wa anthu udzakwera m'maiko akumadzulo, ndikukakamiza andale kuti awononge mtengo wamafuta. Kupatula kulola kugwa kwachuma kuti kuchitike, padzakhala zochepa zomwe angachite kuti achepetse mtengo wamafuta.
    • M’maiko osauka ndi opeza ndalama zapakati, mkwiyo wa anthu udzasanduka zipolowe zachiwawa zimene zidzadzetsa kuwonjezereka kwa malamulo ankhondo, ulamuliro waulamuliro, maiko olephera, ndi kusakhazikika kwa zigawo.
    • Pakadali pano, mayiko omwe sali ochezeka kwambiri omwe amapanga mafuta, monga Russia ndi mayiko osiyanasiyana aku Middle East, azisangalala ndi mphamvu zambiri zatsopano zandale komanso ndalama zomwe azigwiritsa ntchito pazinthu zomwe sizikugwirizana ndi mayiko akumadzulo.
    • O, ndipo kunena zomveka, uwu ndi mndandanda waufupi chabe wa zochitika zoyipa. Ndinayenera kuchepetsa mndandanda kuti ndipewe kupangitsa nkhaniyi kukhala yokhumudwitsa kwambiri.

    Zomwe boma lanu lingachite pamafuta otsika mtengo kwambiri

    Ponena za zomwe maboma adziko lapansi angachite kuti athetse vutoli pachimake chamafuta otsika mtengo, ndizovuta kunena. Chochitikachi chidzakhudza anthu mofanana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo. Komabe, popeza kuchuluka kwamafuta otsika mtengo kudzachitika pakanthawi kochepa kuposa kusintha kwanyengo, maboma adzachitapo kanthu mwachangu kuti athane ndi izi.

    Zomwe tikukamba ndikusintha kwamasewera kwa boma mumsika waulere pamlingo womwe sunawoneke kuyambira WWII. (Zodabwitsa ndizakuti, kukula kwa njirazi kudzakhala chithunzithunzi cha zomwe maboma adziko lapansi angachite kuthana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo Zaka khumi kapena ziwiri pambuyo pa mafuta otsika mtengo.)

    Popanda kuchedwa, nayi mndandanda wa maboma omwe adachitapo kanthu mulole gwiritsani ntchito kuteteza dongosolo lathu lachuma padziko lonse lapansi:

    • Maboma ena ayesa kumasula magawo ena a nkhokwe zawo zamafuta kuti achepetse mitengo yamafuta amitundu yawo. Tsoka ilo, izi sizikhala ndi vuto pang'ono chifukwa nkhokwe zamafuta zamayiko ambiri zitha kungokhala kwa masiku ochepa.
    • Kugawirako kudzakakamizika - monga momwe US ​​​​inakhazikitsira mu 1979 OPEC chiletso chamafuta - kuti achepetse kugwiritsa ntchito komanso kupangitsa kuti anthu azikhala osasamala ndikugwiritsa ntchito gasi. Tsoka ilo, ovota sakonda kusamala ndi zinthu zomwe poyamba zinali zotsika mtengo. Andale akuyang'ana kuti asunge ntchito zawo azindikira izi ndikukankhira zosankha zina.
    • Kuwongolera mitengo kudzayesedwa ndi mayiko angapo osauka mpaka opeza ndalama zapakatikati kuti awonetse kuti boma likuchitapo kanthu ndipo likuwongolera. Tsoka ilo, kuwongolera mitengo sikumagwira ntchito pakapita nthawi ndipo nthawi zonse kumabweretsa kusowa, kugawa, komanso msika wakuda womwe ukuchulukirachulukira.
    • Kukhazikitsa mafuta m'dziko, makamaka pakati pa mayiko omwe amatulutsabe mafuta osavuta kutulutsa, kudzakhala kofala kwambiri, zomwe zidzasokoneza bizinesi yayikulu yamafuta. Maboma a mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene omwe amatulutsa gawo la mkango la mafuta opangidwa mosavuta padziko lonse lapansi adzafunika kuyang'anira chuma cha dziko lawo ndipo atha kukakamiza mitengo ya mafuta awo kuti apewe zipolowe za dziko lonse.
    • Kuphatikizika kwa kuwongolera mitengo ndi kukhazikitsidwa kwa mafuta m'malo osiyanasiyana padziko lapansi kudzangothandiza kusokoneza mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi. Kusakhazikika kumeneku sikudzakhala kovomerezeka kwa mayiko akuluakulu otukuka (monga US), omwe adzapeza zifukwa zochitira nkhondo kuti ateteze katundu wochotsa mafuta pamakampani awo amafuta akunja.
    • Maboma ena atha kukakamiza kukwera kwakukulu kwa misonkho yomwe ilipo komanso yatsopano yoperekedwa kwa anthu apamwamba (makamaka misika yazachuma), omwe atha kugwiritsidwa ntchito ngati mbuzi zomwe zimawonedwa ngati kusokoneza mitengo yamafuta padziko lonse lapansi kuti apeze phindu.
    • Mayiko ambiri otukuka adzaika ndalama zambiri pamisonkho ndikupereka ndalama zothandizira magalimoto amagetsi ndi zoyendera za anthu onse, kukankhira malamulo omwe amavomereza ndi kupindula ndi ntchito zogawana magalimoto, komanso kukakamiza opanga magalimoto awo kuti apititse patsogolo mapulani awo a chitukuko cha magalimoto onse amagetsi ndi odziyimira pawokha. Timaphimba mfundozi mwatsatanetsatane m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Maulendo zino. 

    Zachidziwikire, palibe chilichonse mwazomwe zachitika m'boma zomwe zili pamwambazi zomwe zingachite zambiri kuti zichepetse mitengo yotsika kwambiri pampopu. Njira yosavuta yamaboma ambiri ingokhala kuoneka otanganidwa, kusunga zinthu bata pogwiritsa ntchito apolisi apanyumba omwe ali ndi zida zankhondo, ndikudikirira kuti kutsika kwachuma kapena kupsinjika pang'ono kuyambike, kutero kupha kufunikira kwamafuta ndikubweretsanso mitengo yamafuta. pansi-osachepera mpaka kukwera kwamitengo kotsatira kumachitika zaka zingapo pambuyo pake.

    Mwamwayi, pali chiyembekezo chimodzi chomwe chilipo lero chomwe sichinapezeke panthawi ya kugwedezeka kwamitengo yamafuta mu 1979 ndi 2008.

    Mwadzidzidzi, zongowonjezwdwa!

    Idzafika nthawi, kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2020, pamene kukwera mtengo kwa mafuta osapsa sikudzakhalanso chisankho chopanda mtengo kuti chuma chathu chapadziko lonse chizigwira ntchito. Kusintha kwapadziko lonse kumeneku kudzalimbikitsa mgwirizano waukulu (komanso wosakhala wovomerezeka) pakati pa mabungwe abizinesi ndi maboma padziko lonse lapansi kuti akhazikitse ndalama zomwe sizimamveka m'magwero ongowonjezera mphamvu. Pakapita nthawi, izi zipangitsa kuti mafuta achuluke, pomwe zongowonjezera zimakhala gwero lalikulu lamphamvu padziko lonse lapansi. Mwachiwonekere, kusintha kwakukulu kumeneku sikudzangochitika mwadzidzidzi. M'malo mwake, zidzachitika pang'onopang'ono ndikukhudzidwa kwa mafakitale osiyanasiyana. 

    Magawo angapo otsatirawa amndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Mphamvu asanthula mwatsatanetsatane za kusinthaku, chifukwa chake yembekezerani zodabwitsa.

    TSOGOLO LA ENERGY SERIES LINKS

    Kufa kwapang'onopang'ono kwanthawi yamphamvu ya kaboni: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P1

    Kukwera kwagalimoto yamagetsi: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P3

    Mphamvu ya Dzuwa ndi kukwera kwa intaneti yamagetsi: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P4

    Renewables motsutsana ndi makadi amphamvu a Thorium ndi Fusion: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P5

    Tsogolo lathu m'dziko lamphamvu: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P6

    Kusintha kwamtsogolo kwamtsogolo kwamtsogolo

    2023-12-13

    Zolosera zam'tsogolo

    Maulalo otsatirawa otchuka komanso amasukulu adatchulidwira zamtsogolo:

    Mafuta Aakulu, Mpweya Woipa
    Wikipedia (2)

    Maulalo otsatirawa a Quantumrun adatchulidwira zamtsogolo: