Pambuyo pa zaka za ulova wambiri: Tsogolo la Ntchito P7

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Pambuyo pa zaka za ulova wambiri: Tsogolo la Ntchito P7

    Zaka zana limodzi zapitazo pafupifupi 70 peresenti ya anthu athu ankagwira ntchito m’mafamu kuti apeze chakudya chokwanira m’dzikoli. Masiku ano, chiŵerengerocho n’chochepera pawiri pa zana. Zikomo kubwera automation Revolution chifukwa choyendetsedwa ndi makina ochulukirachulukira komanso luntha lochita kupanga (AI), pofika chaka cha 2060, titha kupezeka kuti talowa m'dziko lomwe 70 peresenti ya ntchito zamasiku ano imayang'aniridwa ndi awiri peresenti ya anthu.

    Kwa ena a inu, ili lingakhale lingaliro lowopsa. Kodi munthu amachita chiyani popanda ntchito? Kodi munthu amapulumuka bwanji? Kodi gulu limagwira ntchito bwanji? Tiyeni tifufuze pamodzi mafunsowo m’ndime zotsatirazi.

    Kuyesera komaliza motsutsana ndi makina

    Pamene chiwerengero cha ntchito chikuyamba kutsika kwambiri kumayambiriro kwa zaka za m'ma 2040, maboma adzayesa njira zosiyanasiyana zokonzekera mwamsanga kuyesa kuthetsa magazi.

    Maboma ambiri adzaika ndalama zambiri pa "kupanga ntchito" mapulogalamu opangidwa kuti akhazikitse ntchito ndi kulimbikitsa chuma, monga momwe tafotokozera mu mutu wachinayi za mndandanda uno. Tsoka ilo, kugwira ntchito kwa mapologalamuwa kudzachepa m'kupita kwa nthawi, monganso kuchuluka kwa mapulojekiti omwe angafune kulimbikitsa anthu ogwira ntchito.

    Maboma ena atha kuyesa kuwongolera kapena kuletsa ukadaulo wina wopha anthu ntchito ndikuyamba kugwira ntchito m'malire awo. Tikuwona kale izi ndi makampani otsutsa monga Uber omwe akukumana nawo polowa m'mizinda ina ndi mabungwe amphamvu.

    Koma pamapeto pake, ziletso zenizeni nthawi zonse zimathetsedwa m'makhothi. Ndipo ngakhale kuwongolera kwakukulu kungachedwetse kupita patsogolo kwaukadaulo, sikungaletse mpaka kalekale. Komanso, maboma amene amachepetsa luso lazopangapanga m'malire awo amangodzipundula m'misika yapadziko lonse yomwe ili ndi mpikisano.

    Njira ina yomwe maboma angayesere ndikukweza malipiro ochepa. Cholinga chake chidzakhala kuthana ndi kuyimilira kwa malipiro komwe kukumveka m'mafakitale omwe akukonzedwanso ndiukadaulo. Ngakhale kuti izi zidzakweza moyo wa ogwira ntchito, kukwera mtengo kwa ogwira ntchito kudzangowonjezera chilimbikitso kwa mabizinesi kuti agwiritse ntchito makina opangira okha, ndikuwonjezera kutayika kwa ntchito zazikulu.

    Koma palinso njira ina imene maboma angasankhe. Mayiko ena akuyesa ngakhale lero.

    Kuchepetsa ntchito sabata

    Kutalika kwa tsiku la ntchito ndi sabata sikunakhazikitsidwe mwala. M'masiku athu osaka, nthawi zambiri tinkakhala maola 3-5 patsiku tikugwira ntchito, makamaka kusaka chakudya. Pamene tinayamba kupanga matauni, kulima minda, ndi kupanga ntchito zapadera, tsiku la ntchito linakula kuti lifanane ndi masana, kaŵirikaŵiri timagwira ntchito masiku asanu ndi aŵiri pamlungu kwa nthaŵi yonse imene nyengo yaulimi inalola.

    Kenako zinthu zinayamba kuyenda bwino m’nthawi ya kusintha kwa mafakitale pamene kunakhala kotheka kugwira ntchito chaka chonse mpaka usiku chifukwa cha kuunikira kochita kupanga. Pogwirizana ndi kusowa kwa mgwirizano ndi malamulo ofooka a ntchito, sizinali zachilendo kugwira ntchito masiku 12 mpaka 16, masiku asanu ndi limodzi mpaka asanu ndi awiri pa sabata.

    Koma pamene malamulo athu anakhwima ndi luso lamakono linatilola ife kukhala opindulitsa kwambiri, masabata a maola 70 mpaka 80 amenewo anatsika kufika pa maola 60 pofika zaka za zana la 19, ndiyeno anagwera mowonjezereka ku mlungu wozoloŵereka wa maora 40 wa “9-to-5” masiku ano. pakati pa 1940-60s.

    Poganizira mbiriyi, n'chifukwa chiyani zingakhale zotsutsana kwambiri kufupikitsa sabata lathu lantchito mopitilira muyeso? Tikuwona kale kukula kwakukulu kwa ntchito yanthawi yochepa, kusinthasintha, ndi kutumiza mauthenga pa telefoni - zonse zatsopano zomwe zimaloza tsogolo la ntchito yochepa komanso kuwongolera maola ambiri. Ndipo kunena zoona, ngati ukadaulo ukhoza kupanga zinthu zambiri, zotsika mtengo, ndi antchito ochepa, ndiye kuti pamapeto pake, sitidzafunika kuti anthu onse azigwira ntchito.

    N’chifukwa chake pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m’ma 2030, mayiko ambiri otukuka adzakhala atachepetsa maola 40 pamlungu kukhala maola 30 kapena 20—makamaka malinga ndi mmene dzikolo likuyendera panthaŵi ya kusinthaku. Ndipotu, Sweden akuyesera kale ndi maola asanu ndi limodzi ogwira ntchito, ndi kafukufuku woyambirira omwe adapeza kuti ogwira ntchito ali ndi mphamvu zambiri komanso amagwira ntchito bwino m'maola asanu ndi limodzi okhazikika osati asanu ndi atatu.

    Koma ngakhale kuchepetsa mlungu wogwira ntchito kungapangitse ntchito zambiri kupezeka kwa anthu ambiri, izi sizingakhale zokwanira kuthetsa kusiyana kwa ntchito komwe kukubwera. Kumbukirani, pofika 2040, chiŵerengero cha anthu padziko lonse chidzafika pa anthu XNUMX BILIYONI, makamaka ochokera ku Africa ndi Asia. Uku ndi kuchuluka kwakukulu kwa ogwira ntchito padziko lonse lapansi omwe onse azidzafuna ntchito monga momwe dziko lingafunikire mocheperako.

    Ngakhale kupanga zomangamanga ndikusintha chuma chamayiko aku Africa ndi Asia kungapatse maderawa ntchito zokwanira kwakanthawi kuti athe kuthana ndi kuchuluka kwa ogwira ntchito atsopanowa, mayiko otukuka kale / okhwima adzafunika njira ina.

    The Universal Basic Income ndi nthawi ya kuchuluka

    Ngati muwerenga mutu wotsiriza Pamndandandawu, mukudziwa momwe Universal Basic Income (UBI) idzakhalire pakugwira ntchito kwadziko lathu komanso chuma cha capitalist.

    Zomwe mutuwu uyenera kuti udawunikira ndikuwona ngati UBI ikhala yokwanira kupatsa omwe akuilandira moyo wabwino. Ganizirani izi: 

    • Pofika chaka cha 2040, mtengo wazinthu zambiri za ogula udzatsika chifukwa chakuchulukirachulukira kwazinthu zopanga zokha, kukula kwachuma chogawana (Craigslist), komanso ogulitsa mapepala omwe amapeza phindu laling'ono adzafunika kugwira ntchito kuti agulitse kwa anthu ambiri omwe alibe kapena osagwira ntchito. msika.
    • Mautumiki ambiri amamvanso kutsika kofananako pamitengo yawo, kupatula mautumiki omwe amafunikira chidwi chamunthu: lingalirani ophunzitsa umunthu wanu, othandizira kutikita minofu, osamalira, ndi zina zambiri.
    • Maphunziro, pafupifupi m'magawo onse, adzakhala aulere - makamaka chifukwa cha kuyankha koyambirira kwa boma (2030-2035) pazovuta za ma automation ambiri komanso kufunikira kwawo kopitiliza kuphunzitsa anthu ntchito zatsopano ndi ntchito. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Maphunziro zino.
    • Kugwiritsa ntchito kwambiri makina osindikizira a 3D, kukula kwa zida zomangira zovuta komanso kuyika ndalama zaboma m'nyumba zambiri zotsika mtengo, kupangitsa kuti mitengo yanyumba (renti) igwe. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Mizinda zino.
    • Ndalama zachipatala zidzatsika chifukwa cha kusintha koyendetsedwa ndi tekinoloje pakutsata zaumoyo mosalekeza, mankhwala opangidwa ndi munthu payekha (kulondola), komanso chisamaliro chaumoyo chodzitetezera kwanthawi yayitali. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Thanzi zino.
    • Pofika mchaka cha 2040, mphamvu zongowonjezedwanso zidzadyetsa theka la zofunikira zamagetsi padziko lonse lapansi, kutsitsa kwambiri mabilu amagetsi kwa ogwiritsa ntchito wamba. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Mphamvu zino.
    • Nthawi ya magalimoto amtundu uliwonse idzatha m'malo mwa magalimoto amagetsi, odziyendetsa okha omwe amayendetsedwa ndi makampani ogawana magalimoto ndi taxi - izi zidzapulumutsa eni magalimoto akale pafupifupi $9,000 pachaka. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Maulendo zino.
    • Kukwera kwa GMO ndi zolowa m'malo mwazakudya kudzachepetsa mtengo wazakudya zofunika kwa anthu ambiri. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Chakudya zino.
    • Pomaliza, zosangalatsa zambiri zidzaperekedwa motchipa kapena kwaulere kudzera pazida zowonetsera pa intaneti, makamaka kudzera pa VR ndi AR. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la intaneti zino.

    Kaya ndi zinthu zomwe timagula, chakudya chomwe timadya, kapena denga la pamutu pathu, zofunika zomwe munthu wamba adzafunika kukhala nazo zonse zidzatsika pamtengo m'dziko lathu lamtsogolo laukadaulo, lopangidwa ndi makina. Ichi ndichifukwa chake UBI yapachaka ya $24,000 imatha kukhala ndi mphamvu zogula zofanana ndi malipiro a $50-60,000 mu 2015.

    Poganizira zochitika zonsezi zikubwera palimodzi (ndi UBI itaponyedwa mu kusakaniza), ndizomveka kunena kuti pofika 2040-2050, munthu wamba sadzakhalanso ndi nkhawa kuti akufunika ntchito kuti apulumuke, komanso chuma sichidzadandaula. kusakhala ndi ogula okwanira kuti agwire ntchito. Zidzakhala chiyambi cha nthawi ya kuchuluka. Ndipo komabe, payenera kukhala zambiri kuposa izo, sichoncho?

    Kodi tidzapeza bwanji tanthauzo m’dziko lopanda ntchito?

    Zomwe zimabwera pambuyo pa automation

    Mpaka pano muzotsatira zathu za Tsogolo la Ntchito, takambirana zomwe zingapangitse kuti anthu azigwira ntchito mochuluka mpaka kumapeto kwa 2030s mpaka koyambirira kwa 2040s, komanso mitundu ya ntchito zomwe zidzapulumuke. Koma padzabwera nthawi pakati pa 2040 mpaka 2060, pomwe kuwonongeka kwa ntchito kwaotomatiki kudzacheperachepera, pomwe ntchito zomwe zitha kuphedwa ndi makina azidzasowa, ndipo ntchito zochepa zomwe zatsalira zimangogwiritsa ntchito owala kwambiri, olimba mtima, kapena ambiri. olumikizidwa ochepa.

    Kodi anthu ena onse adzakhala otanganidwa bwanji?

    Lingaliro lotsogola lomwe akatswiri ambiri amatengera chidwi chake ndi kukula kwa mtsogolo kwa mabungwe a anthu, omwe nthawi zambiri amakhala ndi mabungwe osapeza phindu komanso mabungwe omwe si aboma (NGOs). Cholinga chachikulu cha ntchitoyi ndikukhazikitsa mgwirizano wamagulu kudzera m'mabungwe osiyanasiyana ndi zochitika zomwe timazikonda kwambiri, kuphatikizapo: ntchito zothandizira anthu, mabungwe achipembedzo ndi chikhalidwe, masewera ndi zosangalatsa zina, maphunziro, chithandizo chamankhwala, mabungwe olimbikitsa, ndi zina zotero.

    Ngakhale ambiri amatsitsa zomwe anthu amakumana nazo ngati zazing'ono poyerekeza ndi boma kapena chuma chonse, a Kusanthula kwachuma kwa 2010 kochitidwa ndi Johns Hopkins Center for Civil Society Studies Kufufuza mayiko oposa makumi anayi adanena kuti mabungwe a anthu:

    • Amawerengera $ 2.2 thililiyoni pazogwiritsa ntchito. M'mayiko ambiri otukuka, mabungwe a anthu amawerengera pafupifupi XNUMX peresenti ya GDP.
    • Imalemba antchito anthawi zonse opitilira 56 miliyoni padziko lonse lapansi, pafupifupi XNUMX peresenti ya anthu azaka zogwira ntchito m'maiko omwe adafunsidwa.
    • Ndilo gawo lomwe likukula mwachangu ku Europe konse, kuyimira ntchito zopitilira 10 peresenti m'maiko ngati Belgium, Netherlands, France, ndi UK. Oposa 12 peresenti ku US ndi XNUMX ku Canada.

    Pakali pano, mwina mukuganiza kuti, 'Izi zikuwoneka bwino, koma mabungwe a boma sangagwire ntchito aliyense. Komanso, si aliyense amene angafune kugwira ntchito yopanda phindu.'

    Ndipo pazigawo zonse ziwiri, mungakhale mukulondola. N’chifukwa chake m’pofunikanso kuganizira mbali ina ya zokambiranazi.

    Kusintha kwa ntchito

    Masiku ano, zomwe timaona kuti ntchito ndi zomwe timalipidwa kuchita. Koma m'tsogolo momwe makina ndi digito otomatiki angatipatse zosowa zathu zambiri, kuphatikiza UBI kuti uzilipira, lingaliro ili silikufunikanso kugwira ntchito.

    Kunena zowona, a ntchito ndi zomwe timachita kuti tipeze ndalama zomwe timafunikira kuti tipeze komanso (nthawi zina) kutilipira chifukwa chogwira ntchito zomwe sitisangalala nazo. Komano ntchito ilibe kanthu kochita ndi ndalama; ndi zimene timachita kuti tikwaniritse zosowa zathu zaumwini, kaya zakuthupi, zamaganizo, kapena zauzimu. Potengera kusiyana uku, ngakhale titha kulowa m'tsogolo ndi ntchito zochepa, sititero nthawi kulowa m'dziko lokhala ndi ntchito zochepa.

    Society ndi dongosolo latsopano lantchito

    M'dziko lamtsogolo lino momwe ntchito ya anthu ikuchotsedwa kuchokera ku zokolola ndi chuma cha anthu, titha:

    • Luso laulere la anthu komanso kuthekera polola anthu omwe ali ndi malingaliro aluso kapena kafukufuku wa madola mabiliyoni ambiri kapena malingaliro oyambitsa nthawi ndi chitetezo chazachuma kuti akwaniritse zokhumba zawo.
    • Tsatirani ntchito yofunika kwa ife, kaya ya zaluso ndi zosangalatsa, bizinesi, kafukufuku, kapena ntchito zaboma. Chifukwa chofuna kupeza phindu, mtundu uliwonse wa ntchito yochitidwa ndi anthu okonda luso lawo udzawonedwa mofanana.
    • Zindikirani, perekani, ndikuyamikira ntchito zosalipidwa m'dera lathu, monga kulera ana ndi kusamalira odwala ndi okalamba.
    • Khalani ndi nthawi yochulukirapo ndi abwenzi ndi abale, kugwirizanitsa bwino moyo wathu ndi zikhumbo zathu zantchito.
    • Yang'anani kwambiri pa ntchito zomanga anthu ammudzi, kuphatikiza kukula kwachuma chosakhazikika chokhudzana ndi kugawana, kupatsa mphatso, ndi kusinthanitsa.

    Ngakhale kuchuluka kwa ntchito kumatha kutsika, komanso kuchuluka kwa maola omwe timawagwiritsa ntchito pa sabata, padzakhala nthawi zonse ntchito yokwanira yoti aliyense agwire.

    Kufufuza tanthauzo

    M'badwo watsopano uwu, wochuluka womwe tikukhalamo ndi womwe udzawona kutha kwa ntchito yolandila anthu ambiri, monga momwe zaka zamakampani zidawonera kutha kwa ntchito zaukapolo. Udzakhala m’nthaŵi imene liwongo la Oyeretsa la kudzitsimikizira mwa kulimbikira ntchito ndi kudzikundikira chuma lidzaloŵedwa m’malo ndi chikhalidwe chaumunthu cha kudzitukumula ndi kusonkhezera anthu m’dera lawo.

    Pazonse, sitidzafotokozedwanso ndi ntchito zathu, koma ndi momwe timapezera cholinga m'miyoyo yathu. 

    Tsogolo la mndandanda wa ntchito

    Kupulumuka Pantchito Yanu Yamtsogolo: Tsogolo Lantchito P1

    Imfa ya Ntchito Yanthawi Zonse: Tsogolo la Ntchito P2

    Ntchito Zomwe Zidzapulumuka Zodzichitira: Tsogolo la Ntchito P3   

    Makampani Omaliza Opanga Ntchito: Tsogolo la Ntchito P4

    Automation ndiye Kutulutsa Kwatsopano: Tsogolo la Ntchito P5

    Ndalama Zoyambira Padziko Lonse Zimachiritsa Kusowa Ntchito Kwambiri: Tsogolo la Ntchito P6

    Kusintha kwamtsogolo kwamtsogolo kwamtsogolo

    2023-12-28