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Tsogolo labizinesi yayikulu kumbuyo kwa magalimoto odziyendetsa okha: Tsogolo la Maulendo P2

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lolemba, 09/14/2020 - 08:47

Chaka ndi 2021. Mukuyendetsa mumsewu waukulu paulendo wanu watsiku ndi tsiku. Mumayandikira galimoto yomwe ikuyendetsa mouma khosi pa liwiro lalikulu kwambiri. Mwaganiza zodutsa dalaivala wotsatira malamulo monyanyira, pokhapokha mutatero, mutapeza kuti palibe amene ali pampando wakutsogolo.

Monga tinaphunzirira mu gawo loyamba Pamndandanda wathu wa Future of Transportation, magalimoto odziyendetsa okha azipezeka poyera m'zaka zochepa chabe. Koma chifukwa cha zigawo zawo, iwo adzakhala okwera mtengo kwambiri kwa ogula wamba. Kodi izi zikusonyeza kuti magalimoto odziyendetsa okha ndi opangidwa ndi anthu akufa m'madzi? Ndani ati agule zinthu izi?

Kuwonjezeka kwa kusintha kwa kugawana magalimoto

Nkhani zambiri zonena za magalimoto odziyimira pawokha (AVs) sizinena kuti msika woyambira wa magalimotowa sakhala ogula wamba - ikhala bizinesi yayikulu. Makamaka, ntchito zama taxi ndi magalimoto. Chifukwa chiyani? Tiyeni tiwone mwayi wamagalimoto odziyendetsa okha ku imodzi mwama taxi/rideshare zazikulu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi: Uber.

Malinga ndi Uber (ndi pafupifupi ma taxi aliwonse kunja uko), imodzi mwamitengo yayikulu (75 peresenti) yokhudzana ndi kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito yawo ndi malipiro a oyendetsa. Chotsani dalaivala ndipo mtengo wotengera Uber ungakhale wocheperapo kusiyana ndi kukhala ndi galimoto muzochitika zilizonse. Ngati ma AV analinso amagetsi (monga Zolosera za Quantumrun zimaneneratu), kutsika kwa mtengo wamafuta kungapangitse mtengo waulendo wa Uber kutsika mpaka ma tambala pa kilomita imodzi.

Ndi mitengo yotsika, njira yabwino imayamba pomwe anthu amayamba kugwiritsa ntchito Uber kuposa magalimoto awo kuti asunge ndalama (pamapeto pake amagulitsa magalimoto awo pakangopita miyezi ingapo). Anthu ochulukirapo omwe amagwiritsa ntchito ma Uber AVs amatanthauza kufunikira kwakukulu kwa ntchitoyi; kufunikira kwakukulu kumapangitsa kuti Uber apereke ndalama zambiri kuti atulutse gulu lalikulu la ma AV pamsewu. Izi zipitilira kwa zaka zambiri mpaka titafika pomwe magalimoto ambiri m'matauni amakhala odzilamulira okha ndipo ndi a Uber ndi opikisana nawo ena.

Uwu ndiye mphotho yabwino kwambiri: kukhala ndi umwini wambiri pamayendedwe anu mumzinda uliwonse ndi matauni padziko lonse lapansi, kulikonse komwe ntchito zama taxi ndi magalimoto zimaloledwa.

Kodi izi ndizoipa? Kodi izi ndi zolakwika? Kodi tiyenera kukweza mafoloko athu motsutsana ndi dongosolo lalikulu la ulamuliro wadziko lonse? Ayi, ayi. Tiyeni tione mozama momwe umwini wagalimoto ulili pano kuti timvetsetse chifukwa chake kusinthaku sikuli koyipa.

Mapeto osangalatsa a umwini wagalimoto

Mukayang'ana umwini wagalimoto moyenera, zikuwoneka ngati vuto. Mwachitsanzo, malinga ndi kafukufuku wa Morgan Stanley, pafupifupi galimoto imayendetsedwa ndi XNUMX peresenti yokha ya nthawiyo. Mukhoza kutsutsana kuti zinthu zambiri zomwe timagula sizigwiritsidwa ntchito kawirikawiri tsiku lonse-ndikukupemphani kuti tsiku lina mudzawone fumbi likusonkhanitsidwa pamtundu wanga wa dumbbells-koma mosiyana ndi zinthu zambiri zomwe timagula, iwo satero. t imayimira gawo lachiwiri lalikulu la ndalama zomwe timapeza pachaka, titangolipira lendi kapena nyumba yobwereketsa.

Galimoto yanu imatsika mtengo kachiwiri mukagula, ndipo pokhapokha mutagula galimoto yapamwamba, mtengo wake udzapitirira kutsika chaka ndi chaka. Mosiyana ndi zimenezo, ndalama zanu zosamalira zidzakwera chaka ndi chaka. Ndipo tisayambe pa inshuwaransi yamagalimoto kapena mtengo woimika magalimoto (ndipo nthawi yomwe yawonongeka kufunafuna malo oimikapo magalimoto).

Zonsezi, mtengo wapakati wa umwini wagalimoto yonyamula anthu yaku US ndi pafupifupi $ 9,000 pachaka. Kodi zingatenge ndalama zingati kuti musiye galimoto yanu? Malinga ndi Profged CEO Zack Kanter, "N'zopanda ndalama zambiri kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito yogawana nawo ngati mukukhala mumzinda ndikuyendetsa makilomita osakwana 10,000 pachaka." Kudzera pagalimoto yodziyendetsa nokha ndi ntchito zapamtunda, mutha kukhala ndi mwayi wopeza galimoto nthawi iliyonse yomwe mungafune, osadandaula za inshuwaransi kapena kuyimitsidwa.

Pakachulukidwe kake, anthu akamagwiritsira ntchito kwambiri magalimoto oyenda okhawa komanso ma taxi, magalimoto ocheperako azikhala akuyendetsa m'misewu yathu yayikulu kapena kuyendayenda mosalekeza kufunafuna malo oimikapo magalimoto - kuchepa kwa magalimoto kumatanthawuza kuchepa kwa magalimoto, kuyenda mwachangu, komanso kuwonongeka kwa chilengedwe. (makamaka ma AV awa akakhala onse amagetsi). Kupitilira apo, ma AV ambiri pamsewu amatanthauza ngozi zapamsewu zochepa, kupulumutsa ndalama ndi miyoyo ya anthu. Ndipo zikafika kwa okalamba kapena anthu olumala, magalimotowa amapititsa patsogolo ufulu wawo komanso kuyenda kwawo konse. Mitu iyi ndi zina zidzakambidwa m'nkhaniyi gawo lomaliza ku mndandanda wathu wa Future of Transportation.

Kodi ndani amene adzalamulire mopambanitsa m’nkhondo zogaŵikana zikudzazo?

Poganizira za kuthekera kwa magalimoto odziyendetsa okha komanso mwayi waukulu wopeza ndalama zomwe amayimira pamayendedwe ama taxi ndi okwera (onani pamwambapa), sizovuta kulingalira za tsogolo lomwe limaphatikizanso zinthu zambiri zosasangalatsa, Game-of-Thrones. -Mpikisano wamtundu pakati pamakampani omwe akupikisana kuti azilamulira makampani omwe akutukukawa.

Ndipo makampani awa ndi ndani, agalu apamwamba awa akuyang'ana kuti akhale ndi zomwe mukukumana nazo m'tsogolomu? Tiyeni titsitse mndandanda:

Woyamba komanso wodziwikiratu wopikisana naye si wina koma Uber. Ili ndi mtengo wamsika wa $ 18 biliyoni, zaka zambiri zoyambitsa ntchito zama taxi ndi zokwera m'misika yatsopano, ili ndi njira zapamwamba zoyendetsera magalimoto ake, dzina lokhazikitsidwa, komanso cholinga chofuna kusintha madalaivala ake ndi magalimoto odziyendetsa okha. Koma ngakhale Uber atha kukhala ndi malire pabizinesi yoyendetsa dalaivala yamtsogolo, ili ndi zovuta ziwiri: Imadalira Google pamapu ake ndipo imadalira wopanga magalimoto kuti agule mtsogolo magalimoto ongochita zokha.

Ponena za Google, ikhoza kukhala mpikisano wovuta kwambiri wa Uber. Ndiwotsogola pakupanga magalimoto odziyendetsa okha, ali ndi ntchito yapamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi yopangira mapu, ndipo ali ndi msika kumpoto kwa $350 biliyoni, sizingakhale zovuta kuti Google igule ma taxi osayendetsa ndikupezerera bizinesi-kwenikweni, ili ndi chifukwa chabwino kwambiri chochitira izi: Zotsatsa.

Google imayendetsa bizinesi yopindulitsa kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi yotsatsa pa intaneti yomwe imadalira kwambiri malonda apafupi ndi zotsatira zakusaka kwanu. Nkhani yochenjera yoperekedwa ndi wolemba Ben Eddy ikuwona tsogolo lomwe Google imagula magalimoto amagetsi odziyendetsa okha omwe amakuyendetsani kuzungulira tawuni kwinaku akukutumizirani zotsatsa zam'deralo kudzera m'galimoto. Ngati mungasankhe kuwonera zotsatsazi, kukwera kwanu kungakhale kotsitsidwa kwambiri, ngati sikungakhale kwaulere. Izi zitha kukulitsa luso lotsatsa la Google kwa omvera, ndikupambananso mautumiki opikisana ngati Uber, omwe luso lawo lotsatsa sizingafanane ndi Google.

Iyi ndi nkhani yabwino kwa Google, koma kupanga zinthu zolimbitsa thupi sikunakhalepo kolimba, osasiya kumanga magalimoto. Google ikhoza kudalira ogulitsa akunja ikafika pogula magalimoto ake ndikuwapatsa zida zofunikira kuti azidzilamulira okha.

Pakadali pano, Tesla wapanganso zambiri pakukula kwa AV. Ndili mochedwa kumasewera kumbuyo kwa Google, Tesla wapeza mwayi waukulu poyambitsa zida zodziyimira pawokha pamagalimoto ake apano. Ndipo monga eni ake a Tesla amagwiritsa ntchito mawonekedwe odziyimira pawokha muzochitika zenizeni padziko lapansi, Tesla amatha kutsitsa izi kuti apeze mamiliyoni a mailosi oyeserera a AV pakupanga mapulogalamu ake a AV. Wosakanizidwa pakati pa Silicon Valley ndi wopanga magalimoto azikhalidwe, Tesla ali ndi mwayi wopambana gawo lalikulu la msika wa AVE pazaka khumi zikubwerazi.

Ndiyeno pali Apple. Mosiyana ndi Google, kuthekera kwakukulu kwa Apple kuli pakupanga zinthu zakuthupi zomwe sizothandiza komanso zopangidwa mwaluso. Makasitomala ake, mokulira, amakhalanso olemera, kulola Apple kuti azilipiritsa chilichonse chomwe angatulutse. Ichi ndichifukwa chake Apple tsopano ikukhala pachifuwa chankhondo cha $ 590 biliyoni chomwe angagwiritse ntchito kulowa nawo masewerawa mosavuta monga Google.

Kuyambira 2015, mphekesera zidamveka kuti Apple idzatuluka ndi AV yake kuti ipikisane ndi Tesla pansi pa Project Titan moniker, koma zolepheretsa zaposachedwa zikusonyeza kuti maloto amenewa sangakwaniritsidwe. Ngakhale ikhoza kuyanjana ndi opanga magalimoto ena mtsogolomo, Apple mwina sikhalanso pa mpikisano wamagalimoto monga momwe akatswiri ofufuza amayembekezera.

Ndiyeno tili ndi opanga magalimoto monga GM ndi Toyota. Kumapeto kwake, ngati kukwera njinga kukuyamba ndikuchepetsa kufunikira kwa gulu lalikulu la anthu kukhala ndi magalimoto, zitha kutanthauza kutha kwa bizinesi yawo. Ndipo ngakhale zingakhale zomveka kuti opanga magalimoto ayesetse kutsutsana ndi machitidwe a AV, ndalama zaposachedwa za opanga ma automaker muzoyambira zaukadaulo zikuwonetsa zosiyana ndi zowona.

Pamapeto pake, opanga ma automaker omwe akukhalabe mu nthawi ya AV ndi omwe amadzichepetsera bwino ndikudziyambitsanso poyambitsa ntchito zawo zosiyanasiyana. Ndipo pofika mochedwa pampikisano, luso lawo komanso luso lawo lopanga magalimoto pamlingo waukulu zimawalola kupanga Silicon Valley pomanga magalimoto odziyendetsa okha mwachangu kuposa ntchito ina iliyonse yotsatsira - zomwe zingawalole kuti agwire misika yayikulu (mizinda) m'mbuyomu. Google kapena Uber akhoza kuwalowetsa.

Zonse zomwe zanenedwa, ngakhale onse omwe akupikisana nawowa amapanga milandu yokakamiza chifukwa chake amatha kupambana pa Game of Thrones yodziyendetsa okha, zomwe zingachitike ndikuti m'modzi kapena angapo mwamakampaniwa agwirizana kuti achite bwino pantchito yayikuluyi.

Kumbukirani, anthu amazolowera kudziyendetsa okha. Anthu amakonda kuyendetsa galimoto. Anthu amakayikira maloboti omwe akuwongolera chitetezo chawo. Ndipo pali magalimoto opitilira biliyoni imodzi omwe si a AV pamsewu padziko lonse lapansi. Kusintha zizolowezi za anthu ndi kulanda msika waukulu chonchi kungakhale kovuta kwambiri kuti kampani iliyonse ingathe kuyendetsa yokha.

Kusinthaku sikumangokhalira magalimoto odziyendetsa okha

Mukawerenga mpaka pano, mukhululukidwa poganiza kuti kusinthaku kunali kokha kwa ma AV omwe amathandiza anthu kuchoka pa point A kupita ku B motchipa komanso moyenera. Koma kwenikweni, imeneyo ndi theka chabe la nkhani. Kukhala ndi ma robo-chauffeurs kukuyendetsani bwino komanso kwabwino (makamaka mutatha kumwa mowa movutikira), koma bwanji za njira zina zonse zomwe timayendera? Nanga tsogolo la mayendedwe apagulu? Nanga bwanji masitima apamtunda? Mabwato? Ndipo ngakhale ndege? Zonsezo ndi zina zidzafotokozedwa mu gawo lachitatu la mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Maulendo.