Quantumrun

Automation ndiye ntchito yatsopano

CREDIT YA ZITHUNZI: Quantumrun

Automation ndiye ntchito yatsopano

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
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@DavidTalWrites

Mu 2015, dziko la China, lomwe lili ndi anthu ambiri padziko lonse lapansi, lidakumana ndi a kusowa kwa ogwira ntchito m'magalasi. Nthaŵi ina, olemba ntchito ankatha kulemba antchito otsika mtengo ochokera kumidzi; tsopano, olemba ntchito amapikisana pa antchito oyenerera, motero amakweza malipiro apakatikati a ogwira ntchito kufakitale. Pofuna kupewa izi, olemba anzawo ntchito aku China apereka zopanga zawo kumisika yotsika mtengo yaku South Asia, pomwe ena mwasankha kuyika ndalama m'gulu latsopano, lotsika mtengo la antchito: Maloboti.

Automation yakhala ntchito yatsopano.

Makina olowa m'malo ogwirira ntchito si lingaliro lachilendo. Pazaka makumi atatu zapitazi, gawo la ntchito ya anthu padziko lonse lapansi latsika kuchoka pa 64 mpaka 59 peresenti. Chatsopano ndi momwe makompyuta ndi maloboti atsopanowa akhalira otchipa, okhoza, komanso othandiza akagwiritsidwa ntchito kuofesi ndi kufakitale.

Mwanjira ina, makina athu akukula mwachangu, anzeru, komanso aluso kuposa ife pafupifupi paluso lililonse ndi ntchito, ndipo akukula mwachangu kuposa momwe anthu angasinthire kuti agwirizane ndi luso la makina. Poganizira luso la makinawa, kodi chuma chathu, dziko lathu, ngakhalenso zikhulupiriro zathu zokhala ndi cholinga ndi chiyani?

Epic kukula kwa kutha kwa ntchito

Malingana ndi posachedwapa Lipoti la Oxford, 47 peresenti ya ntchito zamasiku ano zidzatha, makamaka chifukwa cha makina opangira makina.

Zoonadi, kutayika kwa ntchito kumeneku sikungachitike mwadzidzidzi. M'malo mwake, idzabwera mwamafunde pazaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi. Maloboti omwe ali ndi luso lochulukirapo komanso makina apakompyuta ayamba kugwiritsa ntchito anthu omwe ali ndi luso lochepa, ntchito zamamanja, monga za m'mafakitale, kutumiza (onani magalimoto oyendetsa galimoto), ndi ntchito yosamalira. Adzatsatanso ntchito zapakati pa luso m'magawo monga zomangamanga, zogulitsa, ndi zaulimi. Adzatsatanso ntchito zandalama, zowerengera ndalama, sayansi yamakompyuta ndi zina zambiri.

Nthawi zina, ntchito zonse zimatha; m'malo ena, luso lazopangapanga limapangitsa kuti ogwira ntchito azigwira bwino ntchito mpaka pomwe mabwana sangafunikire anthu ambiri kuti agwire ntchitoyo. Izi pomwe anthu amachotsedwa ntchito chifukwa cha kukonzanso kwa mafakitale komanso kusintha kwaukadaulo kumatchedwa ulova wadongosolo.

Kupatulapo zina, palibe makampani, gawo, kapena ntchito yomwe ili yotetezeka kumayendedwe aukadaulo.

Ndani amene adzakhudzidwe kwambiri ndi ulova wodzipangira okha?

Masiku ano, zazikulu zomwe mumaphunzira kusukulu, kapena ntchito yeniyeni yomwe mukuiphunzitsa, nthawi zambiri imakhala yachikale mukamaliza maphunziro anu.

Izi zitha kubweretsa kutsika koyipa komwe kuti mukwaniritse zosowa za msika wogwira ntchito, muyenera kuyambiranso luso kapena digiri yatsopano. Ndipo popanda kuthandizidwa ndi boma, kuphunzitsidwa nthawi zonse kumatha kubweretsa ngongole zambiri za ngongole za ophunzira, zomwe zitha kukukakamizani kugwira ntchito nthawi zonse kuti mulipire. Kugwira ntchito nthawi zonse osasiya nthawi yopitiliza kuphunzitsidwanso kungakupangitseni kukhala osagwira ntchito pamsika, ndipo makina kapena kompyuta ikadzalowa m'malo mwa ntchito yanu, mudzakhala m'mbuyo mwanzeru komanso mungongole kwambiri kotero kuti kubweza ngongole kungakhale. njira yokhayo yomwe yatsala kuti mukhale ndi moyo.

Mwachiwonekere, izi ndizochitika monyanyira. Koma ndizowonanso zomwe anthu ena akukumana nazo masiku ano, ndipo ndizowona kuti anthu ambiri adzakumana nawo zaka khumi zikubwerazi. Mwachitsanzo, lipoti laposachedwa lochokera kwa a Banki Yadziko adazindikira kuti azaka zapakati pa 15 mpaka 29 ali ndi mwayi wochepera kuwirikiza kawiri kuposa wamkulu kuti asagwire ntchito. Tidzafunika kupanga ntchito zatsopano zosachepera 600 miliyoni pamwezi, kapena XNUMX miliyoni pakutha kwa zaka khumi, kuti chiŵerengerochi chikhale chokhazikika komanso chogwirizana ndi kukwera kwa chiwerengero cha anthu.

Komanso, amuna (modabwitsa mokwanira) ali pachiwopsezo chotaya ntchito kuposa akazi. Chifukwa chiyani? Chifukwa amuna ambiri amakonda kugwira ntchito zamaluso otsika kapena ntchito zamalonda zomwe zimayang'aniridwa mwachangu (kuganizani oyendetsa magalimoto akusinthidwa ndi magalimoto opanda dalaivala). Pakadali pano, amayi amakonda kugwira ntchito zambiri muofesi kapena ntchito zamtundu wautumiki (monga anamwino osamalira okalamba), zomwe zidzakhale m'gulu la ntchito zomaliza kusinthidwa.

Kodi ntchito yanu idzadyedwa ndi maloboti?

Kuti mudziwe ngati ntchito yanu yamakono kapena yamtsogolo ili pa chopping block, onani zowonjezereka izi Lipoti la kafukufuku wothandizidwa ndi Oxford pa Tsogolo la Ntchito.

Ngati mungakonde kuwerenga kopepuka komanso njira yosavuta yopezera kupulumuka kwa ntchito yanu yamtsogolo, mutha kuyang'ananso kalozerayu kuchokera ku NPR's Planet Money podcast: Kodi ntchito yanu idzachitidwa ndi makina?

Zokakamiza zomwe zikuyendetsa ulova wamtsogolo

Poganizira kuchuluka kwa ntchito zomwe zanenedweratuzi, ndibwino kufunsa kuti ndi mphamvu ziti zomwe zimayendetsa makina onsewa.

Ntchito. Chinthu choyamba choyendetsa makina chimamveka bwino, makamaka popeza chakhalapo kuyambira chiyambi cha kusintha kwa mafakitale: kukwera mtengo kwa ogwira ntchito. M'masiku ano, kukwera kwa malipiro ochepera komanso okalamba ogwira ntchito (zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira ku Asia) alimbikitsa eni ake omwe amasunga ndalama kuti akakamize makampani awo kuti achepetse ndalama zoyendetsera ntchito, nthawi zambiri pochepetsa antchito omwe amalipidwa.

Koma kungothamangitsa antchito sikungapangitse kampani kukhala yopindulitsa ngati ogwira ntchito akufunika kuti apange kapena kutumiza zinthu zomwe kampaniyo imagulitsa. Apa ndipamene ma automation amayamba. Kupyolera mu ndalama zotsogola zamakina ndi mapulogalamu ovuta, makampani amatha kuchepetsa ogwira ntchito popanda kuwononga zokolola zawo. Maloboti samayitanira odwala, amasangalala kugwira ntchito kwaulere, ndipo osadandaula kugwira ntchito 24/7, kuphatikiza maholide.

Vuto lina la ntchito ndi kusowa kwa anthu oyenerera. Maphunziro amasiku ano sakutulutsa omaliza maphunziro a STEM (Sayansi, Ukadaulo, Uinjiniya, Masamu) ndi anthu ogulitsa kuti agwirizane ndi zosowa zamsika, kutanthauza kuti ochepa omwe amamaliza maphunziro awo akhoza kulamula malipiro okwera kwambiri. Izi zikukakamiza makampani kuti akhazikitse ndalama popanga mapulogalamu apamwamba komanso ma robotiki omwe amatha kupanga ntchito zina zapamwamba zomwe STEM ndi ogwira ntchito zamalonda akanachita.

Mwanjira ina, zodziwikiratu, ndi kuphulika kwa zokolola zomwe zimapanga kudzakhala ndi zotsatira zowonjezeretsa ntchito.-Tikuganiza kuti timawerengera anthu ndi makina palimodzi mkanganowu. Zidzachulukitsa ntchito. Ndipo pamene ntchito yochuluka ikumana ndi chiwerengero chochepa cha ntchito, timakhala m'mikhalidwe ya malipiro ovutika maganizo ndi kufooketsa mabungwe ogwira ntchito.

Kuletsa khalidwe. Makina ochita kupanga amalolanso makampani kuwongolera bwino miyezo yawo, kupewa ndalama zobwera chifukwa cha zolakwika za anthu zomwe zingayambitse kuchedwa kupanga, kuwonongeka kwazinthu, komanso milandu.

Security. Pambuyo pa mavumbulutso a Snowden ndikuwukira kochulukira pafupipafupi (kumbukirani Sony kuthyolako), maboma ndi mabungwe akufufuza njira zatsopano zotetezera deta yawo pochotsa zinthu zaumunthu pamaneti awo achitetezo. Pochepetsa kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe amafunikira mwayi wopeza mafayilo ozindikira panthawi yomwe akugwira ntchito tsiku ndi tsiku, kuphwanya kwachitetezo kowononga kumatha kuchepetsedwa.

Pankhani ya usilikali, maiko padziko lonse lapansi akuika ndalama zambiri m'zinthu zodzitetezera, kuphatikizapo mlengalenga, nthaka, nyanja, ndi ma drones owukira omwe amatha kugwira ntchito m'magulumagulu. Mabwalo ankhondo amtsogolo adzamenyedwa pogwiritsa ntchito asilikali aumunthu ochepa. Ndipo maboma omwe samayika ndalama muukadaulo wodzitchinjiriza wodziyimira pawokha adzipeza ali pachiwopsezo chotsutsana ndi omwe akupikisana nawo.

Mphamvu yamakompyuta. Kuyambira zaka za m'ma 1970, Chilamulo cha Moore chakhala chikupereka makompyuta omwe ali ndi mphamvu yowerengera nyemba. Masiku ano, makompyutawa afika poti angathe kugwira ntchito, ngakhalenso kuposa anthu pa ntchito zosiyanasiyana zimene anazikonzeratu. Pamene makompyutawa akupitirizabe kukula, adzalola makampani kuti alowe m’malo mwa anthu ambiri ogwira ntchito m’maofesi awo komanso ogwira ntchito m’maofesi.

Mphamvu yamagetsi. Mofanana ndi mfundo yomwe ili pamwambayi, mtengo wa makina apamwamba (maloboti) wakhala ukutsika pang'onopang'ono chaka ndi chaka. Pomwe zidali zotsika mtengo kusinthira ogwira ntchito kufakitale ndi makina, zikuchitika m'malo opangira zinthu kuchokera ku Germany kupita ku China. Pamene makinawa (malikulu) akupitirizabe kutsika mtengo, adzalola makampani kuti alowe m'malo mwa antchito awo ambiri a fakitale ndi buluu.

Mlingo wa kusintha. Monga tafotokozera mutu wachitatu za mndandanda uwu wa Tsogolo la Ntchito, mlingo umene mafakitale, minda, ndi ntchito zikusokonezedwa kapena kuchititsidwa ntchito tsopano zikuchulukirachulukira kuposa momwe anthu angapitirizire.

Malinga ndi momwe anthu ambiri amaonera, kusintha kumeneku kwasintha kwambiri kuposa luso lawo lokonzekera ntchito za mawa. Malinga ndi malingaliro amakampani, kusinthaku kukukakamiza makampani kuti aziyika ndalama pawokha kapena pachiwopsezo chosokonezedwa ndi bizinesi chifukwa choyambitsa tambala.

Maboma akulephera kupulumutsa anthu opanda ntchito

Kulola kuti makina azikankhira mamiliyoni ku ulova popanda dongosolo ndizochitika zomwe sizidzatha bwino. Koma ngati mukuganiza kuti maboma a dziko ali ndi ndondomeko ya zonsezi, ganiziraninso.

Malamulo aboma nthawi zambiri amakhala kumbuyo kwaukadaulo ndi sayansi yamakono. Tangoyang'anani kusakhazikika, kapena kusowa kwake, kuzungulira Uber momwe idakulirakulira padziko lonse mkati mwazaka zochepa, ndikusokoneza kwambiri makampani a taxi. Zomwezo zitha kunenedwanso za bitcoin masiku ano, popeza ndale sanasankhebe momwe angayendetsere bwino ndalama za digito zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira komanso zodziwika bwino. Ndiye muli ndi AirBnB, kusindikiza kwa 3D, malonda a e-malonda a msonkho ndi chuma chogawana, CRISPR gene generic-mndandanda ukupitirira.

Maboma amakono amagwiritsidwa ntchito kuti asinthe pang'onopang'ono, momwe angathere mosamala, kuyang'anira, ndi kuyang'anira mafakitale ndi ntchito zomwe zikubwera. Koma kuchuluka kwa mafakitale ndi ntchito zatsopano zomwe zikupangidwira kwapangitsa maboma kukhala opanda zida zochitira zinthu moganizira komanso munthawi yake - nthawi zambiri chifukwa alibe akatswiri omwe amamvetsetsa bwino ndikuwongolera mafakitale ndi ntchito zomwe zanenedwazo.

Limenelo ndi vuto lalikulu.

Kumbukirani, chofunika kwambiri cha maboma ndi ndale ndicho kusunga ulamuliro. Ngati unyinji wa madera awo achotsedwa ntchito mwadzidzidzi, mkwiyo wawo wamba udzakakamiza andale kupanga malamulo oponderezedwa omwe atha kuletsa kwambiri kapena kuletsa zonse zaukadaulo ndi ntchito zosinthira kuti ziperekedwe kwa anthu. (Chodabwitsa n'chakuti, kulephera kwa boma kumeneku kungateteze anthu ku mitundu ina ya makina othamanga, ngakhale kwakanthawi.)

Tiyeni tione bwinobwino zimene maboma ayenera kulimbana nazo.

Zokhudza anthu pakutha kwa ntchito

Chifukwa cha kuchulukirachulukira kwa ma automation, ntchito zotsika mpaka zapakati zimawona kuti malipiro awo komanso mphamvu zogulira zikukhalabe zikuyenda, kutulutsa anthu apakatikati, pomwe phindu lochulukirapo la ma automation likuyenda mochulukira kwa omwe ali ndi ntchito zapamwamba. Izi zitha kukhala:

Kuchulukirachulukira kwa mgwirizano pakati pa olemera ndi osauka pomwe moyo wawo wabwino komanso malingaliro awo andale ayamba kusiyanasiyana;
Magulu awiriwa amakhala motalikirana (chiwonetsero cha kuthekera kwa nyumba);
M'badwo wachinyamata wopanda luso lambiri komanso luso lokhala ndi tsogolo lokhala ndi mwayi wopeza moyo wawo wonse ngati anthu osagwira ntchito;
Zochitika zowonjezereka za kayendetsedwe ka ziwonetsero za chikhalidwe cha chikhalidwe cha anthu, zofanana ndi 99% kapena mayendedwe a Tea Party;
Kuwonjezeka kwakukulu kwa maboma a anthu ndi a sosholisti omwe akulowa mphamvu;
Zipolowe, zipolowe, ndi kufuna kulanda boma m'mayiko osatukuka kwambiri.

Mavuto azachuma a kutha kwa ntchito

Kwa zaka zambiri, zopindulitsa pantchito za anthu zakhala zikugwirizana ndi kukula kwachuma ndi ntchito, koma makompyuta ndi maloboti akayamba kulowa m'malo mwa anthu ambiri, mgwirizanowu uyamba kuchepa. Ndipo zikatero, zotsutsana zazing'ono za capitalism zidzawululidwa.

Ganizirani izi: M'mayambiriro, machitidwe opangira makina azidzawonetsa phindu kwa mabizinesi, mabizinesi, ndi eni chuma, popeza gawo lawo la phindu lamakampani lidzakula chifukwa cha mphamvu zawo zogwirira ntchito (mukudziwa, m'malo mogawana phindu lomwe laperekedwa monga malipiro kwa anthu ogwira ntchito. ). Koma pamene mafakitale ndi mabizinesi ochulukirachulukira akupanga kusinthaku, chowonadi chosakhazikika chidzayamba kuonekera pansi: Ndani kwenikweni amene adzalipirire zinthu ndi ntchito zomwe makampaniwa amapanga pomwe anthu ambiri akukakamizika kuloŵa ntchito? Langizo: Si malobotiwo.

Kutalika kwa nthawi

Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2030, zinthu zidzafika poipa. Nayi ndandanda yanthawi ya msika wantchito wamtsogolo, zomwe zingachitike chifukwa cha zomwe zidawoneka mu 2016:

Zochita zamasiku ano, ntchito zapakhola zoyera zimadutsa chuma chapadziko lonse pofika koyambirira kwa 2030s. Izi zikuphatikizanso kuchepetsa ntchito za boma.
Zochita zodzichitira zamasiku ano, ntchito zamagalasi zabuluu zimalowa m'chuma chapadziko lonse posachedwa. Zindikirani kuti chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa ogwira ntchito amtundu wa blue-collar (monga malo ovotera), andale adzateteza ntchitozi mokangalika kudzera mu thandizo la boma ndi malamulo otalika kwambiri kuposa ntchito zapanyumba.
Pa nthawi yonseyi, malipiro ambiri amatsika (ndipo nthawi zina amatsika) chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa ogwira ntchito poyerekezera ndi zofuna.
Kuphatikiza apo, mafunde a mafakitale opanga makina ayamba kuwonekera m'maiko otukuka kuti achepetse ndalama zotumizira komanso zogwirira ntchito. Izi zimatsekereza malo opanga zinthu zakunja ndikukankhira antchito mamiliyoni ambiri ochokera kumayiko omwe akutukuka kumene pantchito.
Maphunziro apamwamba akuyamba kutsika pansi padziko lonse lapansi. Kukwera mtengo kwa maphunziro, pamodzi ndi msika wokhumudwitsa, wolamulidwa ndi makina, pambuyo pomaliza maphunziro, zimapangitsa kuti maphunziro a sekondale awoneke ngati opanda pake kwa ambiri.
Kusiyana pakati pa olemera ndi osauka kumakhala kwakukulu.
Pamene ambiri ogwira ntchito amachotsedwa ntchito zachikhalidwe, ndikupita ku chuma cha gig. Kuwononga ndalama kwa ogula kumayamba kusokonekera mpaka pomwe anthu ochepera khumi mwa anthu 50 aliwonse amawononga pafupifupi XNUMX peresenti ya ndalama zomwe ogula amawononga pazinthu zomwe amaziwona kuti sizofunikira. Izi zimabweretsa kugwa kwapang'onopang'ono kwa msika waukulu.
Zofuna zamapulogalamu otetezedwa ndi boma zomwe zimathandizidwa ndi boma zikuwonjezeka kwambiri.
Pamene ndalama zomwe amapeza, malipiro, ndi msonkho wa malonda ziyamba kuchepa, maboma ambiri ochokera m’mayiko otukuka adzakakamizika kusindikiza ndalama zolipirira mtengo wamalipiro a inshuwaransi ya ulova (EI) ndi ntchito zina zaboma kwa anthu osagwira ntchito.
Mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene adzavutika chifukwa cha kuchepa kwa malonda, malonda akunja, ndi zokopa alendo. Izi zidzabweretsa kusakhazikika kofala, kuphatikiza ziwonetsero komanso ziwawa mwina zachiwawa.
Maboma apadziko lonse lapansi achitapo kanthu mwadzidzidzi kuti alimbikitse chuma chawo ndi njira zazikulu zopangira ntchito mogwirizana ndi Marshall Plan ya pambuyo pa WWII. Mapulogalamu opangira ntchitowa adzayang'ana kwambiri pakukonzanso zomangamanga, nyumba za anthu ambiri, kukhazikitsa magetsi obiriwira, ndi ntchito zosinthira kusintha kwanyengo.
Maboma amatenganso masitepe okonzanso malamulo okhudza ntchito, maphunziro, misonkho, ndi ndalama zothandizira anthu ambiri poyesa kupanga chikhalidwe chatsopano - New Deal yatsopano.

Piritsi lodzipha la Capitalism

Zingakhale zodabwitsa kuphunzira, koma zomwe zili pamwambazi ndi momwe capitalism idapangidwira poyambirira kuti ithe - kupambana kwake komaliza kukhalanso kutha kwake.

Chabwino, mwina nkhani ina ikufunika apa.

Popanda kudumphira mu Adam Smith kapena Karl Marx quote-athon, dziwani kuti phindu lamakampani limapangidwa mwamwambo potenga ndalama zowonjezera kuchokera kwa ogwira ntchito - mwachitsanzo, kulipira antchito nthawi yochepa kuposa nthawi yawo ndi phindu kuchokera kuzinthu kapena ntchito zomwe amapanga.

Capitalism imalimbikitsa ndondomekoyi mwa kulimbikitsa eni ake kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zomwe zilipo kale m'njira yabwino kwambiri mwa kuchepetsa ndalama (ntchito) kuti apeze phindu lalikulu. M'mbiri yakale, izi zikuphatikizapo kugwiritsa ntchito akapolo, kenaka ogwira ntchito omwe amalipidwa kwambiri, ndiyeno kutumiza ntchito kumisika yotsika mtengo, ndipo potsiriza kufika kumene ife tiri lero: kuchotsa ntchito za anthu ndi makina olemera kwambiri.

Apanso, labour automation ndi chikhalidwe chachilengedwe cha capitalism. Ichi ndichifukwa chake kulimbana ndi makampani omwe amadzipangira okha mosadziwa kuchokera kwa ogula kumangochedwetsa zomwe sizingalephereke.

Koma kodi maboma adzakhala ndi njira zina ziti? Popanda msonkho wa ndalama zomwe amapeza kapena misonkho, kodi maboma angathe kugwira ntchito ndi kutumikira anthu? Kodi angalole kuti azioneka osachita kalikonse pamene chuma chambiri chikusiya kugwira ntchito?

Poganizira zovuta zomwe zikubwerazi, njira yothetsera vutoli iyenera kukhazikitsidwa kuti athetse kutsutsana kwadongosololi - yankho lomwe liri m'mutu wamtsogolo wa Tsogolo la Ntchito ndi Tsogolo la Chuma.