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WWIII Climate Wars P1: Momwe madigiri a 2 adzatsogolera ku nkhondo yapadziko lonse

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WWIII Climate Wars P1: Momwe madigiri a 2 adzatsogolera ku nkhondo yapadziko lonse

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
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(Malumikizidwe a mndandanda wonse wakusintha kwanyengo alembedwa kumapeto kwa nkhaniyi.)

Kusintha kwanyengo. Ndi nkhani yomwe tonse tamvapo kwambiri zaka khumi zapitazi. Ndi nkhani yomwe ambiri aife sitinaiganizirepo mwachangu pamoyo wathu watsiku ndi tsiku. Ndipo, kwenikweni, chifukwa chiyani ife? Kupatula nyengo yotentha kuno, mphepo yamkuntho yoopsa kumeneko, sizinakhudze moyo wathu kwambiri. M'malo mwake, ndimakhala ku Toronto, Canada, ndipo nyengo yozizira iyi (2014-15) yakhala yocheperako kwambiri. Ndinakhala masiku awiri ndikugwedeza t-shirt mu December!

Koma ngakhale ndikunena choncho, ndikuzindikiranso kuti nyengo yachisanu ngati imeneyi si yachilengedwe. Ndinakulira ndi chipale chofewa chachisanu mpaka m'chiuno. Ndipo ngati chitsanzo cha zaka zingapo zapitazi chikupitirira, pakhoza kukhala chaka chomwe ndimakhala ndi nyengo yozizira yopanda chipale chofewa. Ngakhale izi zitha kuwoneka ngati zachilengedwe kwa waku California kapena waku Brazil, kwa ine zomwe siziri zaku Canada.

Koma pali zambiri kwa izo kuposa izo mwachiwonekere. Choyamba, kusintha kwa nyengo kungakhale kosokoneza kwambiri, makamaka kwa iwo omwe samapeza kusiyana pakati pa nyengo ndi nyengo. Weather imafotokoza zomwe zikuchitika miniti ndi miniti, tsiku ndi tsiku. Imayankha mafunso monga: Kodi pali mwayi wamvula mawa? Kodi tingayembekezere mainchesi angati a matalala? Kodi pali kutentha komwe kukubwera? Kwenikweni, nyengo imalongosola nyengo yathu kulikonse pakati pa nthawi yeniyeni mpaka zolosera zamasiku 14 (ie masikelo anthawi yochepa). Panthawiyi, “nyengo” imafotokoza zimene munthu amayembekeza kuti zichitike kwa nthawi yaitali; ndiye mzere wamayendedwe; ndiye kulosera kwanyengo kwanthawi yayitali komwe kumawoneka (osachepera) zaka 15 mpaka 30 zatha.

Koma ndiye vuto.

Ndani amene amaganiza kwenikweni zaka 15 mpaka 30 masiku ano? M'malo mwake, chifukwa cha chisinthiko cha anthu ambiri, tapangidwa kuti tizisamala za nthawi yayifupi, kuyiwala zakale, komanso kukumbukira zomwe tikukhala. Ndicho chimene chinatithandiza kukhala ndi moyo kupyola zaka zikwizikwi. Koma ndichifukwa chake kusintha kwanyengo kuli kovutirapo kuti anthu amasiku ano athane nawo: zotsatira zake zoyipa sizingatikhudzenso kwa zaka makumi awiri kapena atatu (ngati tili ndi mwayi), zotsatira zake zimakhala pang'onopang'ono, komanso zowawa zomwe zingayambitse. zidzamveka padziko lonse lapansi.

Chifukwa chake nayi nkhani yanga: chifukwa chomwe kusintha kwanyengo kumamveka ngati mutu wachitatu wotere ndichifukwa zingawononge ndalama zambiri kwa omwe ali ndi mphamvu lero kuti athane nazo mawa. Imvi zomwe zili m'maudindo osankhidwa lero zitha kukhala zitafa pakadutsa zaka makumi awiri kapena makumi atatu - alibe chilimbikitso chachikulu chogwedeza bwato. Komanso chimodzimodzi, kuletsa kupha koopsa, kwamtundu wa CSI, ndikhala ndikukhalako zaka ziwiri kapena zitatu. Ndipo zidzatengera m'badwo wanga zochulukirapo kuti tiwongolere sitima yathu kutali ndi mathithi omwe ma boomers akutitsogolera mpaka kumapeto kwamasewera. Izi zikutanthauza kuti moyo wanga wa imvi ukhoza kuwononga ndalama zambiri, kukhala ndi mwayi wochepa, komanso kukhala wosangalala kusiyana ndi mibadwo yakale. Izo zimawomba.

Choncho, monga wolemba aliyense amene amasamala za chilengedwe, ndilemba chifukwa chake kusintha kwa nyengo kuli koipa. …Ndikudziwa zomwe mukuganiza koma osadandaula. Izi zidzakhala zosiyana.

Nkhani zotsatizanazi zifotokoza za kusintha kwa nyengo mogwirizana ndi mmene zinthu zilili padzikoli. Inde, muphunzira nkhani zaposachedwa pofotokoza zonse, koma muphunziranso momwe zidzakhudzire madera osiyanasiyana padziko lapansi mosiyanasiyana. Muphunzira momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire moyo wanu panokha, koma muphunziranso momwe zingakuthandizireni kunkhondo yamtsogolo yapadziko lonse lapansi ngati sizingathetsedwe kwa nthawi yayitali. Ndipo potsiriza, muphunzira zinthu zazikulu ndi zazing'ono zomwe mungathe kuchita kuti musinthe.

Koma kwa otsegulira mndandandawu, tiyeni tiyambe ndi zoyambira.

Kodi kusintha kwanyengo ndi chiyani kwenikweni?

Tanthauzo la (Googled) la kusintha kwa nyengo lomwe tikhala tikutchula m'nkhani ino ndi: kusintha kwa nyengo yapadziko lonse kapena m'madera chifukwa cha kutentha kwa dziko-kuwonjezeka kwapang'onopang'ono kwa kutentha kwa mlengalenga wa dziko lapansi. Izi nthawi zambiri zimatheka chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa mpweya woipa wa carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, ndi zowononga zina, zopangidwa ndi chilengedwe komanso anthu makamaka.

Eesh. Kumeneko kunali kukamwa. Koma sitisintha izi kukhala kalasi ya sayansi. Chofunika kudziwa ndi chakuti “carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, ndi zinthu zina zoipitsa” zimene zakonzedwa kuti ziwononge tsogolo lathu nthawi zambiri zimachokera ku zinthu zotsatirazi: mafuta, gasi ndi malasha zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito poyatsira chilichonse m’dziko lamakonoli; kutulutsa methane kuchokera ku chisanu chosungunuka cha permafrost mu nyanja ya arctic ndi kutentha kwa nyanja; ndi kuphulika kwakukulu kochokera kumapiri ophulika. Pofika chaka cha 2015, titha kuwongolera gwero limodzi ndikuwongolera gwero lachiwiri.

Chinthu chinanso chimene muyenera kudziwa n’chakuti zinthu zoipitsa zimenezi zikachuluka m’mlengalenga, m’pamenenso dziko lathu lidzatentha kwambiri. Ndiye ife tiyima pati ndi izo?

Mabungwe ambiri apadziko lonse lapansi omwe ali ndi udindo wokonza zoyesayesa zapadziko lonse zolimbana ndi kusintha kwanyengo amavomereza kuti sitingalole kuti mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga wathu upange kupitirira magawo 450 pa miliyoni (ppm). Kumbukirani kuti nambala ya 450 chifukwa chakuti imafanana ndi kutentha kwa madigiri awiri Celsius m’nyengo yathu—imadziwikanso kuti “2-degrees-Celsius limit.”

N’chifukwa chiyani malirewo ndi ofunika? Chifukwa ngati titadutsa, malingaliro achilengedwe (ofotokozedwa pambuyo pake) m'malo athu adzafulumira kuposa momwe tingathere, kutanthauza kuti kusintha kwa nyengo kudzakhala koipitsitsa, mofulumira, mwinamwake kutsogola kudziko limene tonsefe tikukhala mu dziko. wamisala Max kanema. Takulandilani ku Bingu!

Ndiye kodi GHG yomwe ilipo panopa (makamaka carbon dioxide) ndi yotani? Malinga ndi Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, pofika mu February 2014, ndende ya magawo pa miliyoni inali ... 395.4. Eesh. (O, ndi nkhani yake, chisinthiko cha mafakitale chisanachitike, chiwerengerocho chinali 280ppm.)

Chabwino, kotero ife sitiri kutali kwambiri ndi malire. Kodi tiyenera kuchita mantha? Chabwino, izo zimatengera komwe mukukhala pa Dziko Lapansi.

N'chifukwa chiyani madigiri awiri ndi chinthu chachikulu?

Pazinthu zina zomwe sizikugwirizana ndi sayansi, dziwani kuti kutentha kwa thupi la munthu wamkulu kumakhala pafupifupi 99 ° F (37 ° C). Muli ndi chimfine pamene kutentha kwa thupi lanu kukwera kufika pa 101-103 ° F-ndiko kusiyana kwa madigiri awiri kapena anayi okha.

Koma nchifukwa ninji kutentha kwathu kumakwera nkomwe? Kuwotcha matenda, monga mabakiteriya kapena ma virus, m'thupi lathu. N'chimodzimodzinso ndi Dziko Lathu. Vuto ndiloti, likatenthetsa, IFE ndi matenda omwe akufuna kupha.

Tiyeni tione mozama zomwe andale anu samakuuzani.

Andale ndi mabungwe azachilengedwe akamalankhula za malire a 2-degree-Celsius, zomwe sakunena ndikuti ndi avareji-sikuti madigiri awiri akutentha kulikonse mofanana. Kutentha kwa nyanja zapadziko lapansi kumakhala kozizira kwambiri kuposa pamtunda, kotero madigiri awiri pakhoza kukhala madigiri 1.3. Koma kutentha kumatentha kwambiri mukafika kumtunda ndi kumatentha kwambiri kumalo okwera kumene mitengoyo ili—kumeneko kutentha kumatha kufika madigiri anayi kapena asanu. Mfundo yomalizayi imayamwa kwambiri, chifukwa ngati kuli kotentha kwambiri ku Arctic kapena Antarctic, ayezi onsewo amasungunuka mwachangu, zomwe zimatsogolera ku malupu owopsa (kachiwiri, tafotokozanso pambuyo pake).

Ndiye kodi chingachitike n’chiyani kwenikweni ngati nyengo iyamba kutentha?

Nkhondo za m'madzi

Choyamba, dziwani kuti ndi digirii imodzi ya Celsius ya kutentha kwa nyengo, kuchuluka kwa nthunzi kumakwera pafupifupi 15 peresenti. Madzi owonjezerawa m'mlengalenga amabweretsa chiopsezo chowonjezereka cha "zochitika zamadzi," monga mphepo yamkuntho ya Katrina m'miyezi yachilimwe kapena mvula yamkuntho yachisanu m'nyengo yozizira kwambiri.

Kutentha kowonjezereka kumabweretsanso kusungunuka kwa madzi oundana a ku Arctic. Izi zikutanthawuza kuwonjezeka kwa madzi a m'nyanja, chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa madzi a m'nyanja yamchere komanso chifukwa cha madzi ochuluka m'madzi ofunda. Izi zitha kuchititsa kuti pakhale zochitika zambiri za kusefukira kwa madzi komanso matsunami omwe akugunda mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja padziko lonse lapansi. Panthawiyi, mizinda yotsika yomwe ili ndi madoko ndi mayiko a zilumba ali pachiopsezo chosowa pansi pa nyanja.

Komanso, madzi oyera adzakhala chinthu posachedwa. Madzi abwino (madzi omwe timamwa, kusamba, ndi kuthirira mbewu zathu) samayankhulidwa kwambiri pawailesi yakanema, koma yembekezerani kuti izi zisintha m'zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi, makamaka pamene zikusowa kwambiri.

Mukuona, pamene dziko likutentha, madzi oundana a m’mapiri adzatsika pang’onopang’ono kapena kutha. Izi ndizofunikira chifukwa mitsinje yambiri (magwero athu akuluakulu a madzi opanda mchere) yomwe dziko lathu limadalira imachokera ku madzi a m'mapiri. Ndipo ngati mitsinje yambiri ya padziko lapansi ikaphwa kapena kuuma, mukhoza kutsanzikana ndi ulimi wochuluka wa padziko lapansi. Imeneyo ingakhale nkhani yoipa kwa a anthu mabiliyoni asanu ndi anayi akuyembekezeka kukhalapo pofika chaka cha 2040. Ndipo monga mudawonera pa CNN, BBC kapena Al Jazeera, anthu anjala amakhala osimidwa komanso osaganiza bwino akadzapulumuka. Anthu mabiliyoni asanu ndi anayi anjala sadzakhala bwino.

Zogwirizana ndi mfundo zomwe zili pamwambazi, mutha kuganiza kuti ngati madzi ambiri atuluka m'nyanja ndi m'mapiri, kodi sipadzakhala mvula yothirira m'minda yathu? Inde, ndithudi. Koma nyengo yofunda imatanthawuzanso kuti nthaka yathu yolimidwa kwambiri idzakhalanso ndi mvula yambiri, kutanthauza kuti phindu la mvula yambiri lidzathetsedwa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa nthunzi kwa nthaka m'madera ambiri padziko lonse lapansi.

Chabwino, ndiye anali madzi. Tiyeni tsopano tikambirane za chakudya pogwiritsa ntchito mutu waung'ono wovuta kwambiri.

Nkhondo za chakudya!

Pankhani ya zomera ndi nyama zomwe timadya, mawailesi athu amakonda kuyang'ana kwambiri momwe amapangidwira, mtengo wake, kapena momwe angakonzekerere. kulowa m'mimba mwako. Komabe, nthawi zambiri, ma TV athu amalankhula za kupezeka kwenikweni kwa chakudya. Kwa anthu ambiri, ili ndi vuto lachitatu padziko lonse lapansi.

Koma vuto ndi lakuti, pamene dziko likutentha, mphamvu yathu yotulutsa chakudya idzakhala pachiwopsezo chachikulu. Kukwera kwa kutentha kwa digiri imodzi kapena ziwiri sikudzapweteka kwambiri, tingosintha kupanga chakudya kupita kumayiko okwera, monga Canada ndi Russia. Koma malinga ndi a William Cline, mnzake wamkulu ku Peterson Institute for International Economics, kuwonjezeka kwa madigiri awiri mpaka anayi kungayambitse kutayika kwa zokolola za 20-25 peresenti ku Africa ndi Latin America, ndi 30 pa senti kapena kuposerapo ku India.

Nkhani ina ndi yoti, mosiyana ndi m'mbuyomu, ulimi wamakono umakonda kudalira mitundu yochepa ya zomera kuti ikule pamakampani. Takhala tikuweta mbewu, mwina zaka masauzande ambiri akuweta mwamanja kapena zaka zambiri zakusintha ma genetic, zomwe zimatha kuchita bwino ngati kutentha kuli bwino kwa Goldilocks.

Mwachitsanzo, maphunziro oyendetsedwa ndi University of Reading pamitundu iwiri ya mpunga yomwe imabzalidwa kwambiri, lowland indica ndi upland japonica, anapeza kuti onsewa anali pachiopsezo chachikulu cha kutentha kwapamwamba. Makamaka, ngati kutentha kupitirira madigiri 35 pa nthawi ya maluwa, zomera zimakhala zopanda kanthu, zopatsa mbewu zochepa, ngati zilipo. Mayiko ambiri otentha ndi ku Asia kumene mpunga uli chakudya chachikulu chomwe chili kale m’mphepete mwa chigawo cha kutentha kwa Goldilocks, kotero kuti kutentha kwina kulikonse kungabweretse tsoka. (Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Chakudya mndandanda.)

Ndemanga malupu: Pomaliza anafotokoza

Chifukwa chake nkhani za kusowa kwa madzi abwino, kusowa kwa chakudya, kuchuluka kwa masoka achilengedwe, komanso kutha kwa zomera ndi nyama ndizomwe asayansi onsewa akuda nkhawa nazo. Koma komabe, mukuti, choyipa kwambiri mwazinthu izi ndi, ngati, zaka zosachepera makumi awiri. Chifukwa chiyani ndiyenera kusamala nazo tsopano?

Asayansi amati zaka ziwiri kapena zitatu kutengera luso lathu lamakono loyeza momwe mafuta, gasi, ndi malasha amawotcha chaka ndi chaka. Tikuchita ntchito yabwinoko yolondolera zinthuzo tsopano. Zomwe sitingathe kuzitsata mosavuta ndi kutentha komwe kumabwera kuchokera kumayendedwe achilengedwe.

Maiko obwerezabwereza, pankhani ya kusintha kwa nyengo, ndi kuzungulira kulikonse komwe kumapangitsa (kuthamanga) kapena moyipa (kumachepetsa) kumakhudza kuchuluka kwa kutentha mumlengalenga.

Chitsanzo cha njira yolakwika yodziwikiratu chingakhale chakuti dziko lathu likamatentha kwambiri, m’pamenenso madzi amasanduka nthunzi m’mlengalenga, n’kupanga mitambo yambiri yomwe imaonetsa kuwala kochokera kudzuwa, zomwe zimachepetsa kutentha kwapakati pa dziko lapansi.

Tsoka ilo, pali njira zambiri zoyankhira zabwino kuposa zoyipa. Nawu mndandanda wa zofunika kwambiri:

Pamene dziko likutentha, madzi oundana kumpoto ndi kum’mwera adzayamba kuchepa, kusungunuka. Kutayika kumeneku kumatanthauza kuti sipadzakhalanso madzi oundana onyezimira onyezimira kuti awonetse kutentha kwa dzuwa kubwereranso mumlengalenga. (Kumbukirani kuti mitengo yathu imasonyeza kutentha kwa dzuŵa mpaka 70 peresenti kubwereranso kumlengalenga.) Popeza kuti kutentha kumacheperachepera, kusungunuka kumakula mofulumira chaka ndi chaka.

Zogwirizana ndi kusungunuka kwa madzi oundana a polar, ndiko kusungunuka kwa madzi oundana, nthaka yomwe kwa zaka mazana ambiri yakhala ikutsekedwa ndi kuzizira kapena kukwiriridwa pansi pa madzi oundana. Mphepo yozizira yomwe imapezeka kumpoto kwa Canada ndi ku Siberia ili ndi carbon dioxide ndi methane yambiri yomwe imatsekeka, yomwe ikangotenthedwa, imatulutsidwanso mumlengalenga. Methane makamaka ndi woipa kwambiri kuwirikiza ka 20 kuposa mpweya woipa ndipo sungathe kulowanso m'nthaka mosavuta ikatulutsidwa.

Pomaliza, nyanja zathu: ndiwo masinki athu akulu kwambiri a kaboni (monga zotsukira padziko lonse lapansi zomwe zimayamwa mpweya woipa kuchokera mumlengalenga). Pamene dziko likuwotha chaka chilichonse, mphamvu ya m’nyanja yathu yosunga mpweya woipa wa carbon dioxide imachepa, kutanthauza kuti imakoka mpweya woipa kwambiri kuchokera mumlengalenga. Zomwezo zimapitanso kumadzi athu ena akuluakulu a kaboni, nkhalango zathu ndi dothi lathu, kuthekera kwawo kokoka mpweya kuchokera mumlengalenga kumakhala kocheperako momwe mpweya wathu umaipitsidwa ndi zinthu zotenthetsera.

Geopolitics ndi momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungayambitse nkhondo yapadziko lonse

Tikukhulupirira kuti chithunzithunzi chosavutachi cha momwe nyengo yathu ilili chakupatsani kumvetsetsa bwino za zovuta zomwe tikukumana nazo pamlingo wa sayansi. Chowonadi ndi chakuti, kumvetsetsa bwino za sayansi yomwe imayambitsa vuto sikuti nthawi zonse kumabweretsa uthenga kunyumba pamlingo wamalingaliro. Kuti anthu amvetse mmene kusintha kwanyengo kumakhudzira kusintha kwa nyengo, ayenera kumvetsa mmene kungakhudzire moyo wawo, mabanja awo, ngakhalenso dziko lawo m’njira yeniyeni.

Ichi ndichifukwa chake mndandanda wonsewu uwunika momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhazikitsire ndale, chuma, ndi moyo wa anthu ndi mayiko padziko lonse lapansi, poganiza kuti palibenso zina zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito kuthana ndi vutoli. Nkhanizi zimatchedwa 'WWIII: Climate Wars' chifukwa m'njira yeniyeni, mayiko padziko lonse lapansi azimenyera nkhondo kuti apulumuke.

M'munsimu muli mndandanda wa maulalo ku mndandanda wonse. Muli ndi nkhani zopeka zomwe zakhazikitsidwa zaka makumi awiri kapena atatu kuchokera pano, zowunikira momwe dziko lathu lingawonekere tsiku lina kudzera m'maso mwa anthu omwe tsiku lina angakhalepo. Ngati simuli m'nkhani, ndiye kuti palinso maulalo mwatsatanetsatane (m'chinenero chomveka) zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo monga momwe zimakhudzira madera osiyanasiyana a dziko lapansi. Maulalo awiri omaliza afotokoza zonse zomwe maboma adziko lapansi angachite kuti athane ndi kusintha kwanyengo, komanso malingaliro osagwirizana ndi zomwe mungachite polimbana ndi kusintha kwanyengo m'moyo wanu.

Ndipo kumbukirani, chilichonse (CHILICHONSE) chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga ndi cholepheretsa kugwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wathu.