Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Momwe anthu adzakwera mu 2030: Tsogolo laupandu P4

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 08:52

Tonse ndife ogwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osokoneza bongo. Kaya ndi mowa, ndudu, udzu kapena mankhwala opweteka, mankhwala osokoneza bongo, ndi antidepressants, kukumana ndi kusintha kwakhala gawo la zochitika za anthu kwa zaka zikwi zambiri. Kusiyana kokha pakati pa makolo athu akale ndi lero ndikuti timamvetsetsa bwino za sayansi yomwe imayambitsa kukwezeka.

Koma kodi tsogolo la zinthu zakale zimenezi n’zotani? Kodi tidzaloŵa m’nthaŵi imene mankhwala osokoneza bongo amatha, dziko limene aliyense amasankha kukhala ndi moyo waukhondo?

Ayi. Mwachionekere ayi. Zimenezo zingakhale zoipa.

Sikuti kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osokoneza bongo kudzakula m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, mankhwala omwe amapatsa apamwamba kwambiri sanapangidwebe. M'mutu uno wa mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Upandu, tikufufuza kufunikira ndi tsogolo la mankhwala osaloledwa.

Zomwe zidzalimbikitse kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osokoneza bongo pakati pa 2020-2040

Pankhani ya mankhwala osangalatsa, machitidwe angapo adzagwira ntchito limodzi kuti awonjezere kugwiritsidwa ntchito kwawo pakati pa anthu. Koma njira zitatu zomwe zidzakhudzire kwambiri zikuphatikizapo kupeza mankhwala, ndalama zogulira mankhwala, komanso kufunikira kwa mankhwala.

Zikafika pakupeza, kukula kwamisika yakuda yapaintaneti kwasintha kwambiri kuthekera kwa ogwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osokoneza bongo (wamba komanso omwerekera) kuti agule mankhwala mosamala komanso mwanzeru. Mutuwu udakambidwa kale m'mutu wachiwiri wa mndandandawu, koma kunena mwachidule: mawebusayiti ngati Silkroad ndi omwe adalowa m'malo mwake amapatsa ogwiritsa ntchito mwayi wogula ngati Amazon pamindandanda yamankhwala masauzande ambiri. Misika yakuda yapaintaneti iyi sikupita kulikonse posachedwa, ndipo kutchuka kwawo kukuchulukirachulukira pomwe apolisi ayamba bwino kutseka mphete zachikhalidwe zokankhira mankhwala.

Kupezako kosavuta kwatsopano kumeneku kudzalimbikitsidwanso ndi kuwonjezeka kwa ndalama zomwe zingathe kutayidwa pakati pa anthu wamba. Izi zingamveke ngati zopenga lero koma taganizirani chitsanzo ichi. Choyamba tinakambirana m'mutu wachiwiri wa nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Maulendo mndandanda, pafupifupi mtengo wa umwini wa galimoto zonyamula anthu zaku US zatsala pang'ono $ 9,000 pachaka. Malinga ndi Profged CEO Zack Kanter, "Ndi kale ndalama zambiri kugwiritsa ntchito ntchito yoyendetsa galimoto ngati mukukhala mumzinda ndikuyendetsa makilomita osachepera 10,000 pachaka." Kutulutsidwa kwamtsogolo kwa magetsi onse, magalimoto oyendetsa okha komanso maulendo okwera magalimoto kudzatanthauza kuti anthu ambiri akumatauni sadzafunikanso kugula galimoto, ngakhalenso inshuwaransi ya pamwezi, kukonza, ndi kuyimika magalimoto. Kwa ambiri, izi zitha kuwonjezera kusungirako pakati pa $3,000 mpaka $7,000 pachaka.

Ndipo ndi zoyendera basi. Kupambana kosiyanasiyana kwaukadaulo ndi sayansi (makamaka zomwe zimagwirizana ndi makina opangira makina) zidzakhala ndi zotsatira zofananira pa chilichonse kuyambira chakudya, chisamaliro chaumoyo, kugulitsa katundu ndi zina zambiri. Ndalama zomwe zimasungidwa pamtengo uliwonse wa zinthuzi zitha kuperekedwa kuzinthu zina zaumwini, ndipo kwa ena, izi zimaphatikizapo mankhwala.

Zomwe zidzapangitse kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osaloledwa pakati pa 2020-2040

N’zoona kuti si mankhwala okhawo amene anthu amawagwiritsa ntchito molakwika. Ambiri amatsutsa kuti mbadwo wamakono ndiwo mankhwala kwambiri m'mbiri. Chimodzi mwazifukwa zomwe ndikukula kwa kutsatsa kwamankhwala pazaka makumi awiri zapitazi zomwe zimalimbikitsa odwala kuti azimwa mankhwala ochulukirapo kuposa momwe akanakhalira zaka makumi angapo m'mbuyomo. Chifukwa china ndi kupanga mankhwala atsopano osiyanasiyana omwe amatha kuchiza matenda ochulukirapo kuposa momwe amachitira m'mbuyomu. Chifukwa cha zinthu ziwirizi, kugulitsa mankhwala padziko lonse lapansi kukuposa $XNUMX thililiyoni imodzi ya USD ndipo ikukula pa XNUMX mpaka XNUMX peresenti pachaka.

Ndipo komabe, pakukula konseku, Big Pharma ikulimbana. Monga tafotokozera m’mutu wachiwiri wa nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Thanzi , pamene asayansi atulukira mpangidwe wa mamolekyu wa matenda pafupifupi 4,000, tili ndi mankhwala ochiritsira pafupifupi 250 a iwo. Chifukwa chake ndi chifukwa cha zomwe zimatchedwa Lamulo la Eroom ('Moore' m'mbuyo) pomwe chiwerengero cha mankhwala ovomerezeka pa biliyoni imodzi mu madola a R&D chimadutsa theka lazaka zisanu ndi zinayi zilizonse, zosinthidwa chifukwa cha kukwera kwa mitengo. Ena amadzudzula kutsika kwa kutulutsa kwamankhwala kumeneku chifukwa cha momwe mankhwala amalandilidwira ndalama, ena amadzudzula dongosolo lopunthwitsa kwambiri, kukwera mtengo kwa kuyezetsa, zaka zomwe zimafunikira kuti malamulo avomerezedwe - zonsezi zimathandizira panjira yoswekayi.

Kwa anthu wamba, kuchepa kwa zokolola uku komanso kukwera mtengo kwa R&D kumatha kukweza mtengo wamankhwala, ndipo mitengo ikakwera pachaka, m'pamenenso anthu amatembenukira kwa ogulitsa ndi misika yakuda pa intaneti kuti agule mankhwala omwe amafunikira kuti akhalebe ndi moyo. .

Chinthu china chofunika kukumbukira n’chakuti m’mayiko onse a ku America, ku Ulaya, ndi madera ena a ku Asia, akuti chiwerengero cha anthu okalamba chidzawonjezeka kwambiri m’zaka XNUMX zikubwerazi. Ndipo kwa okalamba, ndalama zawo zothandizira zaumoyo zimakula kwambiri akamadutsa m'zaka zawo zamadzulo. Ngati okalambawa sasunga bwino ndalama zawo zopuma pantchito, ndiye kuti mtengo wamankhwala amtsogolo ukhoza kuwakakamiza, ndi ana omwe amadalira, kugula mankhwala pamsika wakuda.

Kuletsa mankhwala osokoneza bongo

Mfundo inanso yomwe ili ndi tanthauzo lalikulu pakugwiritsa ntchito kwa anthu pochita zosangalatsa komanso popanga mankhwala ndi kuchulukirachulukira kwa kuchotsedwa kwa malamulo.

Monga kufufuzidwa mu mutu wachitatu zathu Tsogolo la Chilamulo m'ma 1980 adayamba "nkhondo yolimbana ndi mankhwala osokoneza bongo" yomwe idabwera ndi zigamulo zowawa, makamaka nthawi yovomerezeka yandende. Zotsatira za ndondomekozi zinali kuphulika kwa chiwerengero cha ndende za US kuchokera pansi pa 300,000 mu 1970 (pafupifupi akaidi 100 pa 100,000) kufika pa 1.5 miliyoni pofika 2010 (akaidi opitirira 700 pa 100,000) ndi omasulidwa mamiliyoni anayi. Ziwerengerozi sizikuwerengeranso mamiliyoni omwe ali m'ndende kapena kuphedwa m'maiko aku South America chifukwa cha chikoka cha US pamalamulo awo okhudza kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osokoneza bongo.

Ndipo komabe ena angatsutse kuti mtengo weniweni wa ndondomeko zowawa za mankhwala osokoneza bongo unali mbadwo wotayika komanso chizindikiro chakuda pa kampasi ya chikhalidwe cha anthu. Kumbukirani kuti ambiri mwa omwe adatsekeredwa m'ndende anali omwerekera komanso ogulitsa mankhwala osokoneza bongo, osati okonda mankhwala osokoneza bongo. Kuphatikiza apo, ambiri mwa olakwawa adachokera kumadera osauka, motero akuwonjezera kusankhana mitundu ndi nkhondo zamagulu pakugwiritsa ntchito mkangano m'ndende. Nkhani za chilungamo cha chikhalidwe cha anthu izi zikuthandizira kuti anthu asinthe kuchoka ku chithandizo chakhungu cha anthu omwe ali ndi vuto lachiwembu komanso kupeza ndalama zothandizira upangiri ndi zipatala zomwe zakhala zothandiza kwambiri.

Ngakhale palibe wandale amene akufuna kuwoneka wofooka paupandu, kusintha kwapang'onopang'ono kwa malingaliro a anthu kudzawona kuchotsedwa kwa chamba ndikuwongolera chamba m'maiko ambiri otukuka kumapeto kwa 2020s. Kuletsa uku kupangitsa kuti kusuta kwa chamba kukhale kozolowereka pakati pa anthu onse, mofanana ndi kutha kwa kuletsa, zomwe zingapangitse kuti mankhwala ochulukirapo asamagwiritsidwe ntchito pakapita nthawi. Ngakhale kuti izi sizingadzetse kuchulukirachulukira kwa kugwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osokoneza bongo, padzakhala zowoneka bwino zogwiritsidwa ntchito pakati pa anthu ambiri.

Mankhwala amtsogolo komanso tsogolo labwino

Tsopano pakubwera gawo la mutu uno lomwe linalimbikitsa ambiri a inu kuti muwerenge (kapena kudumpha) muzolemba zonse pamwambapa: mankhwala amtsogolo omwe angakupatseni tsogolo labwino!

Pofika kumapeto kwa 2020s komanso koyambirira kwa 2030s, kupita patsogolo kwaposachedwa monga CRISPR (kufotokozedwa mu mutu wachitatu za Tsogolo Lathu la Zaumoyo) zithandiza asayansi a labotale ndi asayansi aku garaja kupanga mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zomera ndi mankhwala opangidwa ndi majini okhala ndi psychoactive properties. Mankhwalawa amatha kupangidwa kuti akhale otetezeka, komanso amphamvu kuposa omwe ali pamsika masiku ano. Mankhwalawa amatha kupangidwanso kuti akhale ndi masitayelo apadera kwambiri, ndipo amatha kupangidwanso kuti akhale ndi thupi lapadera kapena DNA ya wogwiritsa ntchito (wogwiritsa ntchito wolemera kuti akhale wolondola kwambiri).

Koma pofika zaka za m'ma 2040, kukwera kwa mankhwala kudzakhala kopanda ntchito.

Kumbukirani kuti mankhwala onse osangalatsa amachita ndikuyambitsa kapena kuletsa kutulutsidwa kwa mankhwala ena mkati mwa ubongo wanu. Izi zitha kufananizidwa mosavuta ndi ma implants aubongo. Ndipo chifukwa cha gawo lomwe likubwera la Brain-Computer Interface (yofotokozedwa mu mutu wachitatu zathu Tsogolo Lamakompyuta series), tsogolo ili siliri kutali monga momwe mungaganizire. Mapiritsi a Cochlear akhala akugwiritsidwa ntchito kwa zaka zambiri ngati mankhwala ogontha pang'ono mpaka pang'ono, pamene ma implants olimbikitsa ubongo kwambiri akhala akugwiritsidwa ntchito pochiza khunyu, Alzheimer's, ndi Parkinson's disease.

M'kupita kwa nthawi, tidzakhala ndi ma implants a ubongo a BCI omwe amatha kusintha momwe akumvera - zabwino kwa anthu omwe akudwala matenda ovutika maganizo, komanso abwino kwa ogwiritsa ntchito mankhwala osokoneza bongo omwe ali ndi chidwi chotsegula pulogalamu pafoni yawo kuti ayambitse kumverera kwachikondi kapena chisangalalo kwa mphindi 15. . Kapenanso kuyatsa pulogalamu yomwe imakupatsani chisangalalo pompopompo. Kapenanso pulogalamu yomwe imasokoneza malingaliro anu, ngati mawonekedwe a nkhope ya Snapchat kuchotsa foni. Kupitilira apo, ma digito apamwamba awa amatha kukonzedwa kuti nthawi zonse akupatseni ndalama zambiri, ndikuwonetsetsanso kuti musamachulukitse.

Zonsezi, chikhalidwe cha pop kapena counterculture craze ya 2040s idzalimbikitsidwa ndi mapulogalamu opangidwa mwaluso, digito, psychoactive. Ndipo ndichifukwa chake ochita mankhwala osokoneza bongo mawa sachokera ku Colombia kapena Mexico, achokera ku Silicon Valley.

Pakalipano, pambali ya mankhwala, ma laboratory azachipatala adzapitirizabe kutulutsa mitundu yatsopano ya mankhwala opweteka komanso ochepetsetsa omwe angakhale akuzunzidwa ndi omwe akudwala matenda aakulu. Momwemonso, ma laboratories azachipatala omwe amathandizidwa mwachinsinsi apitiliza kupanga zida zambiri zowonjezera zomwe zingathandize kuti thupi likhale ndi mphamvu, liwiro, kupirira, nthawi yochira, ndipo koposa zonse, zichitani izi nthawi zonse kukhala zovuta kuzizindikira ndi anti- mabungwe a doping-mutha kuganiza kuti anthu omwe mankhwalawa angakopeke nawo.

Kenako pamabwera zomwe ndimakonda kwambiri, ma nootropics, gawo lomwe lidzalowe mkatikati mwa 2020s. Kaya mumakonda phula losavuta la nootropic monga caffeine ndi L-theanine (fav yanga) kapena china chake chotsogola monga piracetam ndi choline combo, kapena mankhwala olembedwa monga Modafinil, Adderall, ndi Ritalin, mankhwala otsogola kwambiri adzatuluka pamsika akulonjeza kupititsa patsogolo. kuyang'ana, nthawi yochitapo kanthu, kusunga kukumbukira, ndi kulenga. Zachidziwikire, ngati tikulankhula kale za ma implants muubongo, ndiye kuti mgwirizano wamtsogolo waubongo wathu ndi intaneti upangitsa kuti zopangira mankhwala izi zisakhalenso ntchito ... koma ndi mutu wa mndandanda wina.

Pazonse, ngati mutuwu ukuphunzitsani chilichonse, ndikuti tsogolo silidzapha munthu wamkulu. Ngati muli m'mayiko osinthidwa, mankhwala omwe mungakhale nawo m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi adzakhala otsika mtengo, abwino, otetezeka, ochuluka, komanso opezeka mosavuta kuposa nthawi ina iliyonse m'mbiri ya anthu.