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Mafakitale omaliza opanga ntchito: Tsogolo la Ntchito P4

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lolemba, 09/14/2020 - 07:29

Ndizowona. Maloboti adzachititsa kuti ntchito yanu ikhale yachikale, koma sizikutanthauza kuti mapeto a dziko ali pafupi. M'malo mwake, zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi pakati pa 2020 ndi 2040 ziwona kuchuluka kwa ntchito…

Mukuwona, zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi zikuyimira zaka zazikulu zomaliza zogwirira ntchito anthu ambiri, zaka makumi angapo zapitazi makina athu asanakhale anzeru mokwanira komanso otha kutengera msika wantchito.

M'badwo wotsiriza wa ntchito

Zotsatirazi ndi mndandanda wa mapulojekiti, machitidwe, ndi magawo omwe adzakhale ndi kuchuluka kwa ntchito zamtsogolo kwazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi. Ndikofunika kuzindikira kuti mndandandawu suyimira mndandanda wonse wa omwe amapanga ntchito. Mwachitsanzo, adzakhala nthawizonse kukhala ntchito mu tech ndi sayansi (STEM jobs). Vuto ndilakuti, maluso ofunikira kulowa m'mafakitalewa ndi apadera komanso ovuta kuwapeza kotero kuti sangapulumutse anthu ambiri ku ulova.

Komanso, makampani akuluakulu aukadaulo ndi sayansi amakonda kugwiritsa ntchito antchito ochepa kwambiri potengera ndalama zomwe amapanga. Mwachitsanzo, Facebook ili ndi antchito pafupifupi 11,000 pa 12 biliyoni muzopeza (2014) ndipo Google ili ndi antchito 60,000 pa 20 biliyoni muzopeza. Tsopano yerekezerani izi ndi kampani yachikhalidwe, yayikulu yopanga ngati GM, yomwe imalemba antchito 200,000 3 biliyoni mu ndalama.

Zonsezi ndikunena kuti ntchito za mawa, ntchito zomwe zidzagwire anthu ambiri, zidzakhala ntchito zapakati pa ntchito zamalonda ndikusankha ntchito. Kwenikweni, ngati mutha kukonza / kupanga zinthu kapena kusamalira anthu, mudzakhala ndi ntchito.

Kukonzanso kwachitukuko. Nkosavuta kusazindikira, koma zambiri za misewu yathu, milatho, madamu, mapaipi amadzi/zachimbudzi, ndi maukonde athu amagetsi anamangidwa zaka zoposa 50 zapitazo. Ngati muyang’ana molimba mokwanira, mukhoza kuona kupsinjika kwa ukalamba kulikonse—ming’alu ya misewu yathu, simenti ikugwa m’milatho yathu, mitsinje yamadzi ikuphulika m’nyengo yachisanu. Zomangamanga zathu zidamangidwanso nthawi ina ndipo ogwira ntchito yomanga mawa adzafunika kusintha zambiri m'zaka khumi zikubwerazi kuti apewe ngozi zoopsa zachitetezo cha anthu. Werengani zambiri m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Mizinda zino.

Kusintha kwanyengo. Momwemonso, zomangamanga zathu sizinangomangidwanso kwa nthawi ina, zidamangidwanso kuti zizizizira kwambiri. Pamene maboma adziko akuchedwa kupanga zisankho zovuta zofunika kulimbana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo, kutentha kwa dziko kudzapitirizabe kukwera. Izi zikutanthauza kuti madera ena padziko lapansi adzafunika kuteteza chilimwe, chisanu chochuluka, kusefukira kwa madzi, mphepo zamkuntho, komanso kukwera kwa madzi a m'nyanja.

Mizinda yambiri yomwe ili ndi anthu ambiri padziko lapansi ili m'mphepete mwa nyanja, kutanthauza kuti ambiri adzafunika mipanda yamadzi kuti ipitirirebe mpaka kumapeto kwa zaka za zana lino. Njira zoyendetsera ngalande ndi ngalandezi ziyenera kukonzedwanso kuti zitenge madzi ochulukirachulukira kuchokera ku mvula yamphamvu komanso chipale chofewa. Misewu iyenera kukonzedwanso kuti isasungunuke m'masiku achilimwe kwambiri, monganso momwe zimakhalira pamwamba pa mizere yamagetsi ndi malo opangira magetsi.

Ndikudziwa, zonsezi zikumveka monyanyira. Nkhani yake ndi yakuti, zikuchitika masiku ano m’madera osankhidwa a dziko lapansi. Pazaka khumi zilizonse zikupita, zidzachitika kaŵirikaŵiri—kulikonse.

Green building retrofits. Potengera zomwe zalembedwa pamwambapa, maboma omwe akuyesera kuthana ndi kusintha kwanyengo ayamba kupereka ndalama zobiriwira komanso zopumira zamisonkho kuti abwezeretse nyumba zathu zamalonda ndi zogona.

Magetsi ndi kutulutsa kutentha kumatulutsa pafupifupi 26 peresenti ya mpweya woipa wapadziko lonse lapansi. Zomangamanga zimagwiritsa ntchito magawo atatu mwa anayi a magetsi a dziko lonse. Masiku ano, mphamvu zambirizi zimawonongeka chifukwa cha kusakwanira kwa ma code omanga akale. Mwamwayi, zaka makumi zikubwerazi ziwona nyumba zathu zikuchulukirachulukira kuwirikiza katatu kapena kuwirikiza kanayi mphamvu zawo pogwiritsa ntchito bwino magetsi, kutchinjiriza, ndi mpweya wabwino, kupulumutsa 1.4 thililiyoni madola pachaka (ku US).

M'badwo wotsatira mphamvu. Pali mkangano womwe nthawi zonse umakankhidwa ndi otsutsa mphamvu zongowonjezwdwanso zomwe zimati popeza zongowonjezera sizingapange mphamvu 24/7, sangadaliridwe ndi ndalama zazikulu, ndikuti ndichifukwa chake timafunikira mphamvu zachikhalidwe. magwero monga malasha, gasi, kapena nyukiliya kwa dzuwa siliwala.

Komabe, zomwe akatswiri ndi andale omwewo amalephera kutchula, komabe, n'zakuti malo a malasha, gasi, kapena zida za nyukiliya nthawi zina amazima chifukwa cha zolakwika kapena kukonza. Ndipo akatero, satseka kwenikweni magetsi a mizinda imene akutumikira. Ndi chifukwa chakuti tili ndi chinthu chomwe chimatchedwa grid grid, pamene chomera chimodzi chikatseka, mphamvu kuchokera ku chomera china imatenga nthawi yomweyo, kuchirikiza zosowa zamphamvu za mzindawo.

Gululi lomwelo ndilomwe zongowonjezwdwa zidzagwiritsa ntchito, kotero kuti dzuwa likapanda kuwala, kapena mphepo siomba m'dera limodzi, kutaya mphamvu kungathe kulipidwa kuchokera kumadera ena kumene zowonjezera zimapanga mphamvu. Kuphatikiza apo, mabatire am'mafakitale akubwera pa intaneti posachedwa omwe amatha kusunga mphamvu zambiri masana kuti amasulidwe madzulo. Mfundo ziwirizi zikutanthawuza kuti mphepo ndi dzuwa zimatha kupereka mphamvu zodalirika mofanana ndi magwero amphamvu amphamvu. Ndipo ngati maphatikizidwe kapena magetsi a thorium pamapeto pake akwaniritsidwa mkati mwa zaka khumi zikubwerazi, padzakhalanso chifukwa chokulirapo chosinthira ku mphamvu ya carbon heavy.

Pofika chaka cha 2050, mayiko ambiri padziko lapansi adzayenera kusintha ma gridi ndi magetsi okalamba, kotero kuti m'malo mwa zomangamanga izi ndi zotsika mtengo, zoyeretsa, komanso zowonjezera mphamvu zowonjezera mphamvu zimangopangitsa ndalama. Ngakhale kusintha kwachitukuko ndi zongowonjezera kumawononga ndalama zofananira ndikusintha ndi magwero amagetsi akale, zongowonjezera zimakhala njira yabwinoko. Ganizilani izi: mosiyana ndi magwero amphamvu apakati, omwe amagawikanso sanyamula katundu wofanana ndi ziwopsezo zachitetezo cha dziko chifukwa cha zigawenga, kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta odetsedwa, kukwera mtengo kwachuma, nyengo ndi zovuta zaumoyo, komanso kusatetezeka kuzinthu zambiri. kuchepa kwamphamvu.

Kuyika ndalama pakugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zamagetsi ndi zongowonjezera kutha kuchititsa kuti mafakitale azichotsa malasha ndi mafuta pofika chaka cha 2050, kupulumutsa maboma ma thililiyoni a madola pachaka, kukulitsa chuma pogwiritsa ntchito ntchito zatsopano pakukhazikitsa gridi yongowonjezedwanso komanso mwanzeru, ndikuchepetsa kutulutsa mpweya wathu wa kaboni pafupifupi 80 peresenti.

Nyumba zambiri. Ntchito yomaliza yomanga mega yomwe titchule ndikumanga nyumba masauzande ambiri padziko lonse lapansi. Pali zifukwa ziwiri: Choyamba, pofika 2040, chiwerengero cha anthu padziko lonse chidzatha 9 biliyoni anthu, kuchuluka kwa kukula kumeneku kumakhala mkati mwa mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene. Kumanga nyumba kuti kuchuluka kwa anthu kudzakhala ntchito yaikulu mosasamala kanthu komwe kuchitikira.

Chachiwiri, chifukwa cha kusowa kwa ntchito kwaukadaulo/roboti komwe kukubwera, kuthekera kwa munthu wamba kugula nyumba kudzagwa kwambiri. Izi zidzayendetsa kufunikira kwa nyumba zatsopano zobwereketsa ndi nyumba za anthu padziko lonse lapansi. Mwamwayi, pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2020, osindikiza a 3D omangamanga adzafika pamsika, kusindikiza ma skyscrapers onse m'miyezi ingapo m'malo mwa zaka. Kukonzekera kumeneku kudzachepetsa mtengo wa zomangamanga ndikupangitsa umwini wanyumba kukhala wotchipa kwa anthu ambiri.

Kusamalira okalamba. Pakati pa 2030s ndi 2040s, m'badwo wa boomer udzalowa zaka zawo zomaliza za moyo. Pakadali pano, m'badwo wazaka chikwi udzalowa m'zaka zawo za 50, kuyandikira zaka zopuma pantchito. Magulu awiri akuluwa adzayimira gawo lalikulu komanso lolemera la anthu omwe adzafune chisamaliro chabwino kwambiri pazaka zawo zakuchepa. Kuphatikiza apo, chifukwa cha matekinoloje otalikitsa moyo omwe adzayambitsidwe m'zaka za m'ma 2030, kufunikira kwa anamwino ndi othandizira ena azaumoyo kudzakhalabe kwakukulu kwazaka zambiri zikubwerazi.

Asilikali ndi chitetezo. N'zosakayikitsa kuti zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi za kuchuluka kwa ulova zibweretsanso kukwera kofanana kwa zipolowe. Ngati anthu ambiri atakakamizidwa kusiya ntchito popanda thandizo la boma kwanthawi yayitali, kuchuluka kwa mankhwala osokoneza bongo, umbanda, ziwonetsero, komanso zipolowe zitha kuyembekezeka. M’maiko osauka omwe kale anali osauka, munthu angayembekezere kukula kwa zigaŵenga, uchigawenga, ndi zoyesayesa za kulanda boma. Kuopsa kwa zotsatira zoyipa za chikhalidwe cha anthu kumadalira kwambiri momwe anthu amaonera kusiyana kwa chuma chamtsogolo pakati pa olemera ndi osauka - ngati chifika poipa kuposa momwe zilili lero, samalani!

Ponseponse, kukula kwa vuto la chikhalidwe cha anthu kupangitsa kuti boma liwononge ndalama zambiri kuti alembe apolisi ndi asitikali ambiri kuti akhazikitse bata m'misewu ya m'mizinda komanso mozungulira nyumba zaboma. Ogwira ntchito zachitetezo wamba adzafunikanso kwambiri m'boma kuti azilondera nyumba ndi katundu wamakampani.

Kugawana chuma. Chuma chogawana, chomwe nthawi zambiri chimatanthauzidwa ngati kusinthanitsa kapena kugawana katundu ndi ntchito kudzera pa intaneti ya anzanu ndi anzawo monga Uber kapena Airbnb, chidzayimira kuchuluka kwa msika wantchito, komanso ntchito, ganyu, ndi ntchito yodzipangira pawokha pa intaneti. . Izi ndizowona makamaka kwa iwo omwe ntchito zawo zidzachotsedwa ndi maloboti amtsogolo ndi mapulogalamu.

Kupanga chakudya (mtundu). Chiyambireni Green Revolution ya zaka za m'ma 1960 gawo la anthu (m'mayiko otukuka) odzipereka kulima chakudya lacheperachepera pa zana limodzi. Koma chiwerengero chimenecho chikhoza kuwona kukwera kodabwitsa m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi. Zikomo, kusintha kwa nyengo! Mwambone, m’cilambo casambano caliji cambone mnope, soni ligongo cici kuli kwakusosekwa mnope pakwamba ya cakulya?

Ulimi wamakono umakonda kudalira mitundu yochepa ya zomera kuti ikule pamafakitale—mbewu zapakhomo zomwe zatulutsidwa m’zaka masauzande ambiri akuweta ndi manja kapena zaka zambirimbiri za kusintha kwa majini. Vuto ndilakuti, mbewu zambiri zimatha kumera m'malo enaake pomwe kutentha kumangokhala Goldilocks. Ichi ndichifukwa chake kusintha kwanyengo kuli kowopsa: kudzakankhira mbewu zambiri zapakhomo kunja kwa malo omwe amakonda, ndikuwonjezera chiwopsezo cha kulephera kwa mbewu padziko lonse lapansi.

Mwachitsanzo, maphunziro oyendetsedwa ndi University of Reading anapeza kuti ku lowland indica ndi upland japonica, mitundu iwiri ya mpunga yomwe imabzalidwa kwambiri, inali pachiwopsezo cha kutentha kwambiri. Makamaka, ngati kutentha kupitirira madigiri 35 Celsius pa nthawi ya maluwa, zomerazo zimakhala zopanda kanthu, zomwe sizimapereka mbewu zochepa. Mayiko ambiri otentha ndi Asia kumene mpunga ndi chakudya chachikulu kwambiri ali kale m'mphepete mwa Goldilocks zone kutentha.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti dziko likadutsa malire a 2-Celsius nthawi ina m'zaka za m'ma 2040 - kukwera kwa mzere wofiira pakati pa kutentha kwapadziko lonse asayansi amakhulupirira kuti kuwononga kwambiri nyengo yathu - zikhoza kutanthauza tsoka pazaulimi padziko lonse lapansi. Monga momwe dziko lidzakhala ndi milomo ina mabiliyoni awiri yoti idyetse.

Ngakhale kuti mayiko otukuka atha kusokoneza mavuto azaulimi chifukwa chokhazikitsa ndalama zambiri muukadaulo watsopano waukadaulo waulimi, mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene adalira gulu lankhondo la alimi kuti apulumuke polimbana ndi njala yayikulu.

Kugwira ntchito ku obsolescence

Ngati atayendetsedwa bwino, ntchito zazikuluzikulu zomwe zatchulidwa pamwambapa zitha kusintha anthu kukhala dziko lomwe magetsi amakhala otsika mtengo, komwe timasiya kuwononga chilengedwe chathu, pomwe kusowa pokhala kudzakhala chinthu chakale, komanso komwe zida zomwe timadalira zidzatifikitsa mpaka pano. zaka zana. Munjira zambiri, tikhala tikuyenda mum'badwo wa kuchuluka kwenikweni. Ndithudi, zimenezo n’zachiyembekezo chachikulu.

Zosintha zomwe tiwona pamsika wathu wantchito zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi zibweretsanso kusakhazikika kokulirapo kwa anthu. Zidzatikakamiza kufunsa mafunso ofunikira, monga: Kodi anthu adzachita bwanji pamene ambiri adzakakamizika kugwira ntchito yochepa kapena yosagwira ntchito? Kodi moyo wathu ndi wochuluka bwanji womwe timalolera kulola ma robot kuti azitha kuyendetsa bwino? Kodi cholinga cha moyo popanda ntchito n'chiyani?

Tisanayankhe mafunso amenewa, mutu wotsatira udzafunika choyamba kunena za njovu ya m’nkhanizi: Maloboti.