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Tsogolo lathu m'dziko lamphamvu: Tsogolo la Mphamvu P6

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 10:41

Ngati mwafika mpaka pano, ndiye kuti mwawerenga za kugwa kwa mphamvu zonyansa ndi mapeto a mafuta otsika mtengo. Mwawerenganso za dziko la post-carbon lomwe tikulowamo, motsogozedwa ndi kukwera kwa magalimoto amagetsi, dzuwa,ndi zonse zina zongowonjezwdwa wa utawaleza. Koma zomwe takhala tikuseka, ndi zomwe mwakhala mukuyembekezera, ndiye mutu wa gawo lomaliza la mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Mphamvu:

Kodi dziko lathu lamtsogolo, lodzala ndi mphamvu zopanda malire, zopanda malire, komanso zongowonjezedwanso, lidzawoneka bwanji?

Ili ndi tsogolo lomwe silingalephereke, komanso lomwe anthu sanakumanepo nalo. Chotero tiyeni tione kusintha kumene kuli patsogolo pathu, koipa, ndiyeno ubwino wa dongosolo la dziko lamphamvu latsopanoli.

Kusintha kosasalala kupita ku nthawi ya post-carbon

Gawo lamagetsi limayendetsa chuma ndi mphamvu za mabiliyoni ambiri, mabungwe, komanso mayiko padziko lonse lapansi. Gawoli limapanga mabiliyoni a madola pachaka ndikupangitsa kuti pakhale mabiliyoni ambiri pazachuma. Ndi ndalama zonsezi zomwe zikuseweredwa, ndi bwino kuganiza kuti pali zokonda zambiri zomwe sizili ndi chidwi chogwedeza bwato.

Pakalipano, bwato lotetezedwa lomwe liri ndi chitetezo limaphatikizapo mphamvu zochokera kumafuta oyambira pansi: malasha, mafuta, ndi gasi.

Mutha kumvetsetsa chifukwa chake ngati mungaganizire izi: Tikuyembekeza kuti zokonda izi zitha kutaya nthawi, ndalama, ndi chikhalidwe chawo mokomera gululi losavuta komanso lotetezedwa logawidwa lamagetsi ongowonjezwdwanso - kapena kupitilira apo, mokomera dongosolo lamphamvu lomwe limapanga mphamvu zopanda malire komanso zopanda malire pambuyo pa kukhazikitsa, mmalo mwa dongosolo lamakono lomwe limapanga phindu lopitirirabe pogulitsa zachilengedwe zochepa pamisika yotseguka.

Poganizira izi, mutha kuwona chifukwa chake CEO wa kampani yogulitsa mafuta / malasha / gasi wachilengedwe angaganize kuti, "Zongowonjezeranso."

Tawonanso momwe makampani opangira masukulu akale akuyesera kuti akhazikitsire chepetsa kukula kwa zongowonjezwdwa. Pano, tiyeni tiwone chifukwa chake mayiko osankhidwa angakhale akukomera ndondomeko zomwezo zobwerera mmbuyo, zotsutsana ndi zongowonjezera.

Geopolitics ya dziko la de-carbonizing

The Middle East. Mayiko a OPEC - makamaka omwe ali ku Middle East - ndi omwe amasewera padziko lonse lapansi omwe atha kupereka ndalama zotsutsa zongowonjezera chifukwa ndi omwe ataya kwambiri.

Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Iran, ndi Iraq pamodzi ali ndi mafuta ambiri padziko lonse lapansi osavuta (otsika mtengo). Kuyambira m'zaka za m'ma 1940, chuma cha m'derali chakwera kwambiri chifukwa cha kuyandikira kwake pazithandizozi, kumanga ndalama zodziimira payekha m'mayiko ambiri opitirira madola thililiyoni.

Koma mwamwayi monga momwe derali lakhalira, a gwero lachuma mafuta asandutsa ambiri a mitundu iyi kukhala mahatchi achinyengo amodzi. M'malo mogwiritsa ntchito chumachi pomanga chuma chotukuka komanso champhamvu chozikidwa pamafakitale osiyanasiyana, ambiri alola chuma chawo kudalira ndalama zamafuta, kuitanitsa katundu ndi ntchito zomwe amafunikira kuchokera kumayiko ena.

Izi zimagwira ntchito bwino pamene kufunikira ndi mtengo wamafuta umakhala wokwera - zomwe zakhala zaka makumi ambiri, zaka khumi zapitazi makamaka - koma pamene kufunikira ndi mtengo wamafuta ukuyamba kuchepa m'zaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi, momwemonso chuma chomwe chimadalira chida ichi. Ngakhale kuti mayiko a ku Middle East si okhawo omwe akulimbana ndi tembereroli - Venezuela ndi Nigeria ndi zitsanzo ziwiri zoonekeratu - akulimbana ndi mavuto omwe angakhale ovuta kuwagonjetsa.

Kutchula ochepa, tikuwona Middle East ikukumana ndi zotsatirazi:

Chiwerengero cha anthu omwe ali ndi vuto lalikulu la ulova;
Ufulu waumwini wochepa;
Chiwerengero cha amayi osaloledwa chifukwa cha miyambo yachipembedzo ndi chikhalidwe;
Mafakitale apakhomo osachita bwino kapena osapikisana nawo;
Gawo laulimi lomwe silingathe kukwaniritsa zosowa zake zapakhomo (chinthu chomwe chidzaipiraipirabe chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo);
Zigawenga zochulukirachulukira komanso zigawenga zomwe si za boma zomwe zimagwira ntchito yosokoneza dera;
Mkangano wazaka mazana ambiri pakati pa zipembedzo ziwiri zazikulu za Chisilamu, zomwe pano zikuphatikizidwa ndi gulu la Sunni la mayiko (Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar) ndi gulu la Shiite (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon)
Ndipo zenizeni kuthekera kwa kuchuluka kwa zida zanyukiliya pakati pa zigawo ziwiri izi.

Chabwino, kumeneko kunali kukamwa. Monga momwe mungaganizire, awa sizovuta zomwe zingathe kuthetsedwa posachedwa. Onjezani kuchepa kwa ndalama zamafuta ku chimodzi mwazinthu izi ndipo muli ndi zomwe zimapangitsa kusakhazikika kwanyumba.

M'derali, kusakhazikika kwapakhomo kumabweretsa chimodzi mwazinthu zitatu: kulanda boma, kutembenukira kudziko lakunja (monga zifukwa zankhondo), kapena kugwa kwathunthu kukhala dziko lolephera. Tikuwona izi zikuchitika pang'ono pano ku Iraq, Syria, Yemen, ndi Libya. Zidzangokulirakulira ngati mayiko aku Mideast alephera kupititsa patsogolo chuma chawo pazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi.

Russia. Monga momwe Middle East imanenera zomwe tangokamba kumene, Russia imakhalanso ndi temberero lazachuma. Komabe, pamenepa, chuma cha Russia chimadalira ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa kuchokera ku gasi wachilengedwe kupita ku Ulaya, kuposa kugulitsa mafuta ake kunja.

Pazaka makumi awiri zapitazi, ndalama zomwe amapeza kuchokera ku gasi ndi mafuta omwe amatumizidwa kunja kwakhala maziko a chitsitsimutso chazachuma cha Russia ndi mayiko. Zimayimira zoposa 50 peresenti ya ndalama za boma ndi 70 peresenti ya zogulitsa kunja. Tsoka ilo, dziko la Russia silinatembenuzire ndalama izi kukhala chuma champhamvu, chomwe chimalimbana ndi kusintha kwa mtengo wamafuta.

Pakalipano, kusakhazikika kwapakhomo kumayendetsedwa ndi zida zofalitsa zabodza komanso apolisi achinsinsi ankhanza. Politburo imalimbikitsa mtundu wina wa hypernationalism womwe mpaka pano walepheretsa dzikolo kutsutsidwa m'nyumba. Koma Soviet Union inali ndi zida zomwezi zowongolera kale dziko la Russia lisanakhalepo, ndipo sizinali zokwanira kuipulumutsa kuti isagwe ndi kulemera kwake.

Ngati Russia ikalephera kusinthika m'zaka khumi zikubwerazi, zitha kulowa m'malo owopsa kufunikira ndi mitengo yamafuta imayamba kuchepa kwamuyaya.

Komabe, vuto lenileni la nkhaniyi n’lakuti mosiyana ndi ku Middle East, dziko la Russia lilinso ndi chigawo chachiwiri padziko lonse chosungira zida za nyukiliya. Russia ikagwa kachiwiri, chiopsezo cha zida izi chikugwera m'manja olakwika ndikuwopseza kwambiri chitetezo padziko lonse lapansi.

United States. Mukayang'ana ku United States, mupeza ufumu wamakono wokhala ndi:

Chuma chachikulu kwambiri komanso champhamvu kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi (chimayimira 17 peresenti ya GDP yapadziko lonse lapansi);
Chuma chambiri padziko lapansi (anthu ake amagula zambiri zomwe amapanga, kutanthauza kuti chuma chake sichidalira kwambiri misika yakunja);
Palibe bizinesi imodzi kapena gwero lomwe limayimira kuchuluka kwa ndalama zake;
Miyezo yochepa ya ulova poyerekezera ndi avareji ya padziko lonse.

Izi ndi zochepa chabe mwa mphamvu zambiri za chuma cha US. A chachikulu koma komabe ndikuti ilinso ndi imodzi mwamavuto akulu azachuma padziko lonse lapansi. Kunena zoona, ndi shopaholic.

Chifukwa chiyani US ikutha kuwononga ndalama zomwe ingakwanitse kwa nthawi yayitali popanda zotsatirapo zambiri, ngati zilipo? Pali zifukwa zingapo - zazikuluzikulu zomwe zimachokera ku mgwirizano womwe unachitika zaka 40 zapitazo ku Camp David.

Kenako Purezidenti Nixon anali akukonzekera kusiya mulingo wa golide ndikusintha chuma cha US kupita ku ndalama yoyandama. Chimodzi mwazinthu zomwe amafunikira kuti achotse izi chinali china chake chotsimikizira kufunika kwa dola kwazaka zambiri zikubwerazi. Onani a House of Saud omwe adachita mgwirizano ndi Washington kuti agulitse malonda amafuta aku Saudi ndi madola aku US okha, ndikugula chuma cha US ndi mafuta otsala. Kuyambira pamenepo, malonda onse amafuta padziko lonse lapansi adapangidwa ndi madola aku US. (Ziyenera kudziwika tsopano chifukwa chake US nthawi zonse yakhala yomasuka kwambiri ndi Saudi Arabia, ngakhale pali kusiyana kwakukulu pazikhalidwe zomwe dziko lililonse limalimbikitsa.)

Mgwirizanowu udalola US kuti isunge malo ake ngati ndalama zosungira padziko lonse lapansi, ndipo pochita izi, idalola kuti iwononge ndalama zomwe ingakwanitse kwazaka zambiri ndikulola dziko lonse lapansi kuti lisankhe.

Ndi zambiri. Komabe, ndi imodzi yomwe imadalira kupitiriza kufunikira kwa mafuta. Malingana ngati kufunikira kwa mafuta kumakhalabe kolimba, momwemonso kufunikira kwa madola aku US kuti agule mafuta. Kutsika pamtengo ndi kufunikira kwa mafuta, pakapita nthawi, kumachepetsa mphamvu zomwe US amagwiritsa ntchito, ndipo pamapeto pake adzayimilira ngati ndalama yosungika padziko lonse lapansi. Ngati chuma cha US chikalowa pansi, momwemonso dziko lapansi lidzagwa (mwachitsanzo onani 2008-09).

Zitsanzozi ndi zochepa chabe mwa zopinga zomwe zili pakati pathu ndi tsogolo la mphamvu zopanda malire, zoyera-ndiye bwanji tisinthane magiya ndikuyang'ana tsogolo loyenera kulimbana nalo.

Kuthetsa imfa ya kusintha kwa nyengo

Chimodzi mwazabwino zodziwikiratu za dziko loyendetsedwa ndi zongowonjezera ndikuphwanya njira yowopsa ya hockey yotulutsa mpweya womwe timatulutsa mumlengalenga. Talankhula kale zakuwopsa kwakusintha kwanyengo (onani mndandanda wathu wapamwamba kwambiri: Tsogolo la Kusintha kwa Nyengo), kotero ine sinditikokera ife mu zokambirana zazitali za izo apa.

Mfundo zazikuluzikulu zomwe tiyenera kukumbukira ndi zoti mpweya wochuluka umene umawononga mpweya wathu umachokera ku mafuta oyaka zinthu zakale oyaka moto komanso kuchokera ku methane yotulutsidwa ndi madzi osungunuka a Arctic permafrost ndi nyanja zotentha. Posamutsa mphamvu zopangira magetsi padziko lonse lapansi kupita ku solar ndi zombo zathu zoyendera kupita kumagetsi, tidzasuntha dziko lathu kukhala dziko lopanda mpweya wa carbon - chuma chomwe chimakwaniritsa zosowa zake zamphamvu popanda kuwononga mlengalenga wathu.

Mpweya womwe tauponyera kale mumlengalenga (Magawo 400 pa miliyoni pofika chaka cha 2015, 50 wamanyazi pa mzere wofiira wa UN) adzakhala m'mlengalenga kwa zaka zambiri, mwina zaka mazana ambiri, mpaka matekinoloje amtsogolo adzayamwa mpweya umenewo kuchokera mumlengalenga.

Izi zikutanthauza kuti kusintha kwamphamvu komwe kukubwera sikungachiritse chilengedwe chathu, koma kumayimitsa magazi ndikulola kuti dziko lapansi liyambe kudzichiritsa lokha.

Kutha kwa njala

Ngati muwerenga mndandanda wathu pa Tsogolo la Chakudya, ndiye kuti mudzakumbukira kuti pofika chaka cha 2040, tidzalowa m'tsogolo lomwe liri ndi malo ochepa komanso osalima chifukwa cha kusowa kwa madzi komanso kutentha kwakukulu (komwe kumayambitsidwa ndi kusintha kwa nyengo). Panthaŵi imodzimodziyo, tili ndi chiŵerengero cha anthu padziko lonse chimene chidzafikira anthu mabiliyoni asanu ndi anayi. Unyinji wa chiŵerengero cha anthu kumeneko udzachokera m’maiko otukuka kumene—dziko lotukuka kumene limene chuma chake chidzachuluka m’zaka makumi aŵiri zikubwerazi. Zopeza zazikuluzikulu zomwe zitha kutayidwa zikunenedwa kuti zipangitsa kuti pakhale kufunikira kwa nyama yomwe ingadye mbewu zapadziko lonse lapansi, zomwe zimabweretsa kusowa kwa chakudya komanso kukwera kwamitengo komwe kungasokoneze maboma padziko lonse lapansi.

Chabwino, kumeneko kunali kukamwa. Mwamwayi, dziko lathu lamtsogolo la mphamvu zaulere, zopanda malire, komanso zowonjezedwanso zaukhondo zitha kupewa izi m'njira zingapo.

Choyamba, chigawo chachikulu cha mtengo wa chakudya chimachokera ku feteleza, mankhwala ophera udzu, ndi mankhwala opangidwa ndi petrochemicals; pochepetsa kufunikira kwathu kwamafuta (mwachitsanzo, kupita ku magalimoto amagetsi), mtengo wamafuta udzatsika, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti mankhwalawa akhale otsika mtengo.
Feteleza otsika mtengo komanso mankhwala ophera tizilombo amachepetsa mtengo wambewu zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito podyetsa nyama, motero amachepetsa mtengo wamtundu uliwonse wa nyama.
Madzi ndi chinthu china chachikulu pakupanga nyama. Mwachitsanzo, pamafunika malita 2,500 a madzi kuti apange kilogalamu imodzi ya ng’ombe. Kusintha kwanyengo kudzazama madzi ambiri asanu ndi limodzi, koma pogwiritsa ntchito ma solar ndi zinthu zina zongowonjezera, titha kumanga ndi kuthira magetsi m'mafakitale akuluakulu ochotsa mchere kuti asandutse madzi a m'nyanja kukhala madzi akumwa motchipa. Izi zidzatipangitsa kuthirira madzi minda yomwe simagwanso mvula kapena yomwe ilibenso malo osungira madzi.
Pakalipano, zombo zoyendera zoyendetsedwa ndi magetsi zidzachepetsa mtengo wonyamula chakudya kuchokera kumalo A kupita kumalo B pakati.
Pomaliza, ngati mayiko (makamaka omwe ali m'madera ouma) asankha kuyikapo ndalama minda ofukula kuti alime chakudya chawo, mphamvu ya dzuwa imatha mphamvu nyumbazi kwathunthu, kuchepetsa mtengo wa chakudya.

Zopindulitsa zonsezi za mphamvu zopanda malire sizingatiteteze ku tsogolo la kusowa kwa chakudya, koma zidzatigulira nthawi mpaka asayansi apanga zatsopano. Green Revolution.

Chilichonse chimakhala chotsika mtengo

Zoona zake, si chakudya chokha chomwe chidzakhala chotsika mtengo mu nthawi ya mphamvu ya carbon-chilichonse chidzatero.

Taganizirani izi, ndi ndalama zotani zomwe zimafunika popanga ndi kugulitsa chinthu kapena ntchito? Tili ndi mtengo wazinthu, antchito, zofunikira zamaofesi/mafakitale, mayendedwe, kasamalidwe, kenako ndimitengo yoyang'anizana ndi ogula pakutsatsa ndi kugulitsa.

Ndi mphamvu zotsika mtengo mpaka zaulere, tiwona kupulumutsa kwakukulu pazinthu zambiri izi. Zopangira migodi zidzakhala zotsika mtengo pogwiritsa ntchito zongowonjezera. Mtengo wamagetsi pakugwiritsira ntchito maloboti/makina utsika kwambiri. Kuchepetsa mtengo wogwiritsa ntchito ofesi kapena fakitale pazowonjezera ndizodziwikiratu. Ndiyeno kuchotsera mtengo wonyamula katundu kudzera m’mavani oyendera magetsi, malole, masitima apamtunda, ndi ndege kudzachepetsa ndalama zochulukirapo.

Kodi izi zikutanthauza kuti zonse mtsogolomu zidzakhala zaulere? Inde sichoncho! Mtengo wa zipangizo, ntchito ya anthu, ndi mabizinesi zidzawonongabe kanthu, koma pochotsa mtengo wa mphamvu pa equation, chirichonse m'tsogolomu. nditero kukhala otchipa kwambiri kuposa zomwe tikuziwona lero.

Ndipo imeneyo ndi nkhani yabwino kwambiri poganizira za kuchuluka kwa kusowa kwa ntchito komwe tidzakhala nako mtsogolo chifukwa cha kukwera kwa maloboti omwe amaba ntchito za kolala yabuluu komanso ma algorithms anzeru kwambiri omwe amaba ntchito za kolala yoyera (tikulemba izi m'mabuku athu. Tsogolo la Ntchito mndandanda).

Kudziyimira pawokha kwamagetsi

Ndi mawu omwe andale padziko lonse lapansi amalira nthawi iliyonse pakagwa vuto lamagetsi kapena kukangana pazamalonda pakati pa ogulitsa mphamvu kunja (mwachitsanzo, mayiko olemera mafuta) ndi ogulitsa mphamvu kunja: ufulu wodziyimira pawokha.

Cholinga cha ufulu wodziyimira pawokha ndikuletsa dziko kuchoka kudziko lomwe limadziwika kapena kudalira kwenikweni dziko lina pazosowa zake zamagetsi. Zifukwa zomwe izi zilili zazikuluzikuluzi ndizodziwikiratu: Kudalira dziko lina kuti likupatseni zothandizira zomwe mukufunikira kuti mugwire ntchito ndizoopseza chuma cha dziko lanu, chitetezo, ndi bata.

Kudalira chuma chakunja koteroko kumachititsa maiko osauka kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zochuluka kwambiri kuitanitsa mphamvu kuchokera kunja m’malo mopereka ndalama zoyendetsera ntchito zapakhomo. Kudalira kumeneku kumakakamizanso mayiko omwe alibe mphamvu kuti athe kuthana ndi kuthandizira mayiko otumiza mphamvu kunja omwe sangakhale ndi mbiri yabwino pazaufulu ndi ufulu wa anthu (ahem, Saudi Arabia ndi Russia).

Zowonadi, dziko lililonse padziko lonse lapansi lili ndi zida zokwanira zongowonjezedwanso - zosonkhanitsidwa kudzera mudzuwa, mphepo kapena mafunde - kuti mphamvu zake zonse zizifunikira. Ndi ndalama zachinsinsi komanso zaboma zomwe tiwona zomwe zayikidwa muzongowonjezera zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi, maiko padziko lonse lapansi tsiku lina adzakumana ndi vuto lomwe safunikiranso kutaya ndalama kumayiko omwe akutumiza mphamvu kunja. M'malo mwake, azitha kugwiritsa ntchito ndalama zomwe zasungidwa kuchokera kumagetsi obwera kuchokera kunja kumapulogalamu omwe akufunika kwambiri.

Dziko lotukuka limalumikizana ndi mayiko otukuka ngati ofanana

Pali lingaliro lakuti kuti omwe akukhala m'mayiko otukuka apitirize kukhala ndi moyo wamakono wogula zinthu, mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene sangaloledwe kufika pa moyo wathu. Palibe zinthu zokwanira. Zingatenge chuma cha mayiko anayi kuti akwaniritse zosowa za anthu mabiliyoni asanu ndi anayi omwe akuyembekezeka kugawana dziko lathu pofika 2040.

Koma kuganiza kotereku ndi 2015. M'tsogolo lokhala ndi mphamvu zambiri zomwe tikupita, zovuta zazinthuzo, malamulo achilengedwe awo, malamulowo amatayidwa pawindo. Potengera mphamvu za dzuwa ndi zina zowonjezera, titha kukwaniritsa zosowa za aliyense wobadwa m'zaka makumi zikubwerazi.

M’chenicheni, maiko otukuka adzafika pa mlingo wa moyo wa maiko otukuka mofulumira kwambiri kuposa momwe akatswiri ambiri angalingalire. Ganizilani izi motere, pakubwera mafoni a m’manja, mayiko amene akutukuka kumene adatha kudumphadumpha pakufunika koika mabiliyoni ambiri kuti agwiritse ntchito matelefoni apamtunda. Zidzakhalanso chimodzimodzi ndi mphamvu, m'malo moyika mabiliyoni ambiri ku gridi yamagetsi yapakati, mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene angagwiritse ntchito ndalama zochepa kwambiri kuti azigwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zowonjezera zowonjezereka.

Ndipotu, zikuchitika kale. Ku Asia, China ndi Japan ayamba kuyika ndalama zambiri pazatsopano kuposa magwero amphamvu monga malasha ndi nyukiliya. Ndipo m'mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene, malipoti zawonetsa kuwonjezeka kwa 143 peresenti muzongowonjezera. Mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene ayika mphamvu zokwana 142 gigawatts pakati pa 2008-2013 - kutengera kwakukulu komanso kofulumira kuposa mayiko olemera.

Kuchepetsa mtengo komwe kumachokera kunjira yopita ku gridi yamagetsi yongowonjezwdwa kudzatsegula ndalama kuti mayiko omwe akutukuka apitirire kumadera ena ambiri, monga ulimi, thanzi, mayendedwe, ndi zina zambiri.

M'badwo wotsiriza wolembedwa ntchito

Nthawi zonse padzakhala ntchito, koma pofika zaka za m'ma XNUMX, pali mwayi wabwino kuti ntchito zambiri zomwe tikudziwa lero zitha kukhala zosankha kapena kuleka kukhalapo. Zifukwa zomwe zachititsa izi - kukwera kwa maloboti, makina odzipangira okha, ma data akulu a AI, kuchepa kwakukulu kwa mtengo wamoyo, ndi zina zambiri - zidzafotokozedwa m'nkhani yathu ya Tsogolo la Ntchito, yomwe idzatulutsidwe m'miyezi ingapo. Komabe, zongowonjezedwanso zitha kukhala ntchito yayikulu yomaliza yazaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi.

Misewu yathu yambiri, milatho, nyumba za anthu, zomangamanga zomwe timadalira tsiku lililonse zidamangidwa zaka makumi angapo zapitazo, makamaka m'ma 1950 mpaka 1970. Ngakhale kukonza nthawi zonse kwapangitsa kuti chida ichi chizigwira ntchito, chowonadi ndichakuti zida zathu zambiri zidzafunika kumangidwanso kwathunthu pazaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi. Ndi ntchito yomwe idzawononge mabiliyoni ambiri ndipo mayiko onse otukuka padziko lonse lapansi adzamva. Gawo limodzi lalikulu la kukonzanso kwachitukuko ndi gridi yathu yamagetsi.

Monga tafotokozera mu gawo linayi za mndandandawu, pofika chaka cha 2050, dziko lapansi liyenera kusinthiratu gululi lamphamvu ndi zida zamagetsi, kotero kuti m'malo mwa zomangamanga izi ndi zotsika mtengo, zotsukidwa, komanso zowonjezera mphamvu zowonjezera zimangopangitsa ndalama. Ngakhale kusintha kwachitukuko ndi zongowonjezera kumawononga ndalama zofananira ndikusintha ndi magwero amagetsi achikhalidwe, zongowonjezera zimapambanabe - amapewa ziwopsezo zachitetezo cha dziko chifukwa cha zigawenga, kugwiritsa ntchito mafuta onyansa, kukwera mtengo kwachuma, kuwonongeka kwanyengo ndi thanzi, komanso chiwopsezo cha kuzimitsa kwakukulu.

Zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi tiwona chimodzi mwazinthu zazikulu kwambiri zantchito m'mbiri yaposachedwa, zambiri mwazomanga ndi zongowonjezera. Izi ndi ntchito zomwe sizingatumizidwe kunja ndipo zomwe zidzafunike kwambiri panthawi yomwe anthu ambiri adzakhala pachimake. Nkhani yabwino ndiyakuti ntchito izi zidzakhazikitsa maziko a tsogolo lokhazikika, limodzi la kuchuluka kwa anthu onse.

Dziko lamtendere kwambiri

Tikayang’ana m’mbuyo m’mbiri yonse, mikangano yambiri ya padziko lapansi pakati pa maiko inayambika chifukwa cha ndawala zakugonjetsa zotsogozedwa ndi mafumu ndi olamulira ankhanza, mikangano ya madera ndi malire, ndipo, ndithudi, kumenyera ulamuliro wa chilengedwe.

M'dziko lamakono, tidakali ndi maufumu ndipo tikadali ndi olamulira ankhanza, koma mphamvu zawo zogonjetsa mayiko ena ndikugonjetsa theka la dziko lapansi zatha. Pakalipano, malire a mayiko akhazikitsidwa kwambiri, ndipo pambali pa zochitika zochepa zapakati pa zodzipatula ndikumenyana pazigawo zing'onozing'ono ndi zilumba, nkhondo yolimbana ndi nthaka kuchokera ku mphamvu yakunja sikulinso pakati pa anthu, kapena yopindulitsa pazachuma. . Koma nkhondo zolimbana ndi chuma, zikadali zotchuka kwambiri.

M’mbiri yaposachedwapa, palibe gwero limene lakhala lamtengo wapatali, kapena mwangozi zadzetsa nkhondo zambiri, monga mafuta. Tonse taziwona nkhani. Tonse tawona kuseri kwa mitu yankhani ndikulankhula kawiri kwa boma.

Kusintha chuma chathu ndi magalimoto athu kuchoka ku kudalira mafuta sikuthetsa nkhondo zonse. Palinso mitundu yosiyanasiyana yazinthu ndi mchere wosowa padziko lapansi womwe ungathe kumenyana nawo. Koma pamene maiko adzipeza ali m’malo mmene angathe kukwaniritsa zosoŵa zawo zamphamvu kotheratu ndi motchipa, kuwalola kusungitsa ndalamazo m’mapulogalamu a ntchito za anthu, kufunika kwa mikangano ndi mayiko ena kudzachepa.

Padziko lonse komanso pa munthu aliyense payekha, chilichonse chimene chimatichotsa pakusowa ndi kuchulukira chimachepetsa kufunikira kwa mikangano. Kuchoka ku nthawi yakusowa mphamvu kupita ku nthawi ya mphamvu zambiri kudzachita zomwezo.