Umnotho wamandla aluhlaza: Ukuchaza kabusha i-geopolitics nebhizinisi

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• July 12, 2023

Amaphuzu avelele okuqonda

Umkhakha wamandla avuselelekayo kulindeleke ukuthi ukhule kakhulu kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo ngenxa yokwenyuka kwezibonelelo zikahulumeni kanye nokuqanjwa kabusha kwezobuchwepheshe okwehlisa izindleko. Abaholi bezimboni bakholelwa ukuthi amandla avuselelekayo ashintshele kunqubomgomo emaphakathi yezomnotho nengqalasizinda, eqhutshwa ohulumeni namakhasimende akhetha izixazululo zamandla angangeni emvelweni nezongayo. Kodwa-ke, uguquko olunezifiso oluya ekusaseni likagesi ngokugcwele luncike kakhulu ekufinyeleleni kumaminerali amaningana omhlaba ayivelakancane. Njengomphumela walokho, ukushoda kokunikezwa okulindelekile kungase kumise kabusha ukuguquguquka komhlaba wonke futhi kudale isimo esisha se-geopolitical landscape esizungeze amaminerali abalulekile kubuchwepheshe obuluhlaza.

Umongo wezomnotho wamandla aluhlaza

Ngokusho kwe-New York Times, ochwepheshe bezimboni bakhombisa ukuthi umkhakha wamandla avuselelekayo kulindeleke ukuthi ugcine amazinga okukhula okuthembekile phakathi nawo wonke ama-2020. Umkhakha wamandla avuselelekayo ube nomthelela omncane wemikhawulo ye-COVID uma uqhathaniswa nezinye izimboni, izinkampani ezimbalwa kuphela ezibe nokuphazamiseka okuncane. Izinto ezibalulekile ezinomthelela kulokhu kuqina zihlanganisa ukuhlanganiswa kwamabhizinisi, okuholele ekutheni kube nabadlali abanamandla kulo mkhakha. Isibonelo i-Siemens Gamesa, eyasungulwa ngo-2017 kusukela ekuhlanganisweni phakathi kwe-behemoth yezimboni yaseJalimane i-Siemens kanye nenkampani yaseSpain i-Gamesa.

Ukwengeza, imizamo eqhubekayo yemboni yokwehlisa izindleko iye yabonakala iphumelela kakhulu. Isibonelo, izinjini zomoya epulazini lomoya elingasogwini lolwandle i-East Anglia One zinamandla aphindwe kashumi nanhlanu kunalawo aqala ukufakwa cishe emashumini amathathu eminyaka edlule, angenisa imali eningi kakhulu ngeyunithi ngayinye. Amandla omoya ase-US, isibonelo, ngokuvamile alinganisa njengomthombo kagesi ongabizi kakhulu ezweni.

Abaholi bemboni baphikisa ngokuthi amandla avuselelekayo ashintshile asuka ekubeni yingxenye yabaphambili ekutshalweni kwezimali komkhakha wezamandla, okungawunikeza ithuba elingcono lokubhekana ngokuphumelelayo nale nkinga. Uma kuziwa emandleni kagesi—isici esibalulekile kuwo wonke umnotho—ohulumeni namakhasimende baya ngokuya bekhetha izixazululo zamandla ahambisana nemvelo, hhayi nje ngenxa yamandla abo okwehlisa ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kodwa futhi ngenxa yokuthi ngokuvamile bayonga kakhulu. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba ukukhiqiza nokuthutha kuqhubeka nokunikezwa amandla kagesi ngokwandayo, isidingo samandla avuselelekayo kulindeleke ukuthi sikhuphuke kakhulu.

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Kodwa-ke, isifiso sekusasa eligcwele ugesi sincike kakhulu kwikhopha, futhi ukushoda kokunikezwayo okulindelekile kungase kubeke engcupheni imigomo yamazwe yokuzuza ukukhishwa kwe-net-zero ngo-2050, ngokombiko we-S&P Global. Lo mbiko uxwayisa ngokuthi ngaphandle kokutheleka okuningi kokunikezwayo okusha, izinjongo zesimo sezulu zingaphazamiseka futhi zihlale zingafinyeleleki. I-Copper ibalulekile ezimotweni zikagesi, amandla elanga nawomoya, namabhethri okugcina amandla. 

Izimoto zikagesi, isibonelo, zidinga ithusi eliphindwe izikhathi ezingu-2.5 kunezimoto ezinezinjini ezivuthayo zangaphakathi. Ukwengeza, uma kuqhathaniswa namandla akhiqizwa kusetshenziswa igesi yemvelo noma amalahle, amandla omoya elanga nasogwini adinga ithusi eliphindwe kabili nakahlanu ngemegawathi ngayinye yomthamo ofakiwe, ngokulandelana. I-Copper iphinde ibambe iqhaza elibalulekile engqalasizinda eletha amandla avuselelekayo, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuguquguquka kwawo kagesi kanye nokusebenza kabusha okuphansi. 

Isidingo esikhulayo sezinsimbi nezimbiwa zomhlaba eziyivelakancane sesimi ngomumo ukubumba kabusha ukuguquguquka komhlaba wonke njengoba izizwe zilwela ukuvikela izinsiza ezifana nethusi, i-lithium, ne-nickel. Kungase kuvele indawo entsha ye-geopolitical egxile kumaminerali afana nekhopha, ikakhulukazi njengoba uchungechunge lokuhlinzeka ngethusi lugxile kakhulu kunezinye izinto zokusetshenziswa, okuhlanganisa nowoyela. I-China isisungule ngokuqhubekayo isikhundla esiphezulu emaketangeni okuhlinzeka ngezimbiwa ezibalulekile ukuze kuzuzwe i-net-zero carbon. Ngokuphambene, ukukhiqizwa kwethusi kwase-US kwehle cishe ngesigamu kule minyaka engu-25 edlule.

Imithelela yezomnotho zamandla aluhlaza

Imithelela ebanzi yezomnotho wamandla aluhlaza ingabandakanya: 

• Ohulumeni babeka eqhulwini izinqubomgomo zamandla avuselelekayo kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali, okuholela ekushintsheni kwezombusazwe. Ukubambisana kwamazwe ngamazwe mayelana nezinhlelo zamandla aluhlaza kungaqinisa ubudlelwano bezokuxhumana futhi kukhuthaze imizamo yokusebenzisana ukulwa nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Okunye, amazwe akhethiwe anokuqukethwe kwamaminerali angavamile angakhetha ukuhlangana ngaphansi kwebhulokhi (elifana ne-OPEC) ukuze alawule ukuhlinzekwa nezintengo zalezi zinsiza zomkhakha oluhlaza.
• Ukwenyuka kwezindleko nobunzima bochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla okuhambisana nokusebenzisa izimbiwa phansi eziyivelakancane okuholela ezenzweni ezintsha zemboni ezimele ezivumela ukwakhiwa kobuchwepheshe obuvuselelekayo obusebenzisa izimbiwa phansi ezingandile noma ukushintshela kumaminerali atholakala kabanzi.
• Ukuphumelela ekugcineni amandla, ukuhlanganiswa kwegridi, nobuchwepheshe begridi ehlakaniphile, ukuguqula umkhakha wezamandla nokuvula amathuba ebhizinisi engeziwe.
• Amazwe kancane kancane ayakwazi ukuzimela ngokwawo ekuhlangabezaneni nezidingo zawo zamandla, okuholela kumnotho womhlaba ozinzile futhi oqinile. Ngeminyaka yawo-2040, ukusetshenziswa kwezindlu nezimboni kugesi kungase kwehle ngenxa yobuningi bamandla avuselelekayo, okuholela enkathini entsha yokwehliswa kwemali yezimpahla ezishibhile namasevisi.
• Ukwakhiwa kwamathuba emisebenzi kanye nokukhula komnotho njengoba umkhakha wezamandla avuselelekayo uzoqhubeka nokwandisa isidingo sawo sabasebenzi abanamakhono ukuze bafake, banakekele futhi benze ubuchwepheshe bamandla ahlanzekile.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Izwe lakini lizilungiselela kanjani izinguquko zamandla aluhlaza?
• Kungaba yini ukungezwani kwezwe okungase kube umphumela wokukhiqizwa kwamandla avuselelekayo?