Imboni yamandla elanga: Ehamba phambili ekukhiqizeni amandla avuselelekayo

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• July 22, 2022

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Ukufinyeleleka okukhulayo kukagesi welanga kulungisa isimo samandla omhlaba, kukhuthaze ukushintshela emithonjeni evuselelekayo futhi kube nomthelela ezingxenyeni ezihlukahlukene zomphakathi. Intuthuko kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nezindleko ezinciphayo zenza amandla elanga afinyeleleke kakhudlwana, kuthonya izinqubomgomo zikahulumeni, izinqubo zemboni, nokuziphatha kwabathengi kumandla asimeme. Lolu shintsho lukhuthaza amathuba amasha emisebenzi, luqhubekisela phambili ukukhula komnotho, futhi lukhuthaze impilo yezemvelo, lubeka amandla kagesi elanga njengomdlali oyinhloko ezisombululweni zamandla zesikhathi esizayo.

Umongo wemboni yamandla elanga

Ukukwazi ukuthengeka kukagesi welanga kwaba ngcono kakhulu ngo-2022, kwadlula izilinganiso ze-International Energy Agency kusukela ngo-2019. Lokhu kwehliswa kwentengo kuye kwabhebhethekisa isasasa elikhulu ngendima yobuchwepheshe belanga embonini yamandla kanye namandla ayo okusiza ukwehlisa ukukhishwa kwesikhutha emhlabeni jikelele. Ukuphumelela kwezindleko zamandla elanga kuba isici esibalulekile emizamweni yomhlaba wonke yokushintshela emithonjeni yamandla ahlanzekile. Lokhu kuthambekela kubaluleke kakhulu njengoba izizwe nezinhlangano ziqinisa ukugxila kwazo ekwehliseni imithelela yemvelo nokuhambisana namasu okunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.

I-Wood Mackenzie, inkampani yocwaningo, ibonisa ukuthi izindleko zamandla elanga kulindeleke ukuthi ziqhubeke nokwehla kwazo kuze kube okungenani ngo-2030. Ukushayela lokhu kunciphisa izindleko kuyintuthuko eminingana ebalulekile yezobuchwepheshe. Lokhu kufaka phakathi ama-trackers elanga asebenza kahle kakhulu, amamojula we-bifacial akhulisa ukuthwebula amandla, ama-inverter amakhulu, kanye nokwanda kokuzenzakalela ezinhlelweni zamandla elanga. Lezi zindlela ezintsha zenza amandla elanga afinyeleleke kalula futhi akwazi ukuthengeka, okubalulekile ekusetshenzisweni kwawo emhlabeni jikelele.

Ukubusa okukhulayo kwamandla elanga emkhakheni wamandla avuselelekayo kuholela ekuthuthukisweni okuthakazelisayo ekuphathweni kwamandla. Ochwepheshe bemboni basikisela ukuthi kwezinye izimo, kungase kube ukonga kakhulu ukumosha amandla elanga engeziwe kunokutshala izisombululo zokulondoloza izinto ezinkulu. Lolu shintsho lubonisa ukuthi izindleko zokusebenza nezokufakwa kwezinhlelo zamandla elanga zehla kakhulu. Ngakho-ke, amabhizinisi emhlabeni jikelele angase akuthole kuya ngokuya kuba nokwenzeka ukusebenzisa amandla elanga, azuze ezindlekweni ezincishisiwe zokusebenza futhi abe neqhaza emizamweni ebanzi yokuqeda ikhabhoni, ikakhulukazi kumaphrojekthi asekelwa uxhaso lukahulumeni olushibhile.

Umthelela ophazamisayo

Ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwamanani entengo yamandla elanga, kuhambisana nesidingo esikhulayo sokushintsha izinto ezibaswayo, kungenzeka kuqhubekisele phambili ukwamukelwa okusabalele kwamandla elanga emhlabeni jikelele. Lokhu kuthambekela kungase kugqugquzele ukutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe emithonjeni yamandla avuselelekayo ahlukahlukene kanye nengqalasizinda edingekayo ukuyisekela. Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2030, kulindeleke ukuthi kube noshintsho olukhulu lapho izinkampani zamandla endabuko, okwamanje ezithembele kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi, cishe zizokwaba ingxenye enkulu yezinsiza zazo kumandla avuselelekayo. Lokhu kushintshwa kwamasu akusona nje isinqumo sezemvelo kodwa futhi kuyisinqumo sezezimali, njengoba ukuhlukahluka emithonjeni evuselelekayo kungase kunikeze imali ezinzile futhi esimeme lapho kubhekwana nokuncipha kwezinqolobane zamafutha ezinsalela kanye nomthetho okhulayo.

Njengoba imithombo yamandla elanga neminye evuselelekayo yanda kakhulu, kungase kube nokukhuphuka okuhambisanayo kokutshalwa kwezimali ukuze kuthuthukiswe nokwenza amagridi kagesi abe yisimanjemanje. Lawa magridi esimanje kulindeleke ukuthi ahlukaniseke kakhulu futhi asheshe, akwazi ukuhlanganisa imithombo yamandla ehlukahlukene kuyilapho egcina ibhalansi ohlelweni lukagesi. Intuthuko enjalo ingase ihlanganise ukuthuthukiswa kanye nokuqaliswa kobuchwepheshe bokugcina obuthuthukisiwe. Lobu buchwepheshe bubalulekile ekulawuleni izikhawu zemithombo yamandla avuselelekayo njengelanga nomoya, ukuqinisekisa ukutholakala kwamandla okuzinzile nokuthembekile.

Ukuvela kwamagridi kagesi ukuya ezinhlelweni ezisabalalise kakhulu kusho uguquko endleleni amandla asatshalaliswa futhi aphathwe ngayo. Lokhu kuthambekela kungaholela ekubambeni iqhaza kwemakethe yamandla, lapho abathengi bengaba abakhiqizi bamandla, bafake isandla samandla asalayo emuva kugridi. Ukwengeza, ukuhlanganiswa kwezixazululo zesitoreji esithuthukisiwe kanye nobuchwepheshe begridi ehlakaniphile kungase kuthuthukise ukusebenza kahle nokuthembeka kokusatshalaliswa kwamandla, kunciphise ukumosheka kwamandla nokwehlisa izindleko kubasebenzisi bokugcina. 

Imithelela yokuqhubeka nokukhula komkhakha wamandla elanga

Imithelela ebanzi yemboni yelanga ekhula ngokuba isizinda sokutshalwa kwezimali komkhakha wezamandla esikhathini esizayo ingase ihlanganise:

• Izinkampani zamandla avuselelekayo nabatshalizimali abalungisa amasu abo ukuze afake indima ekhulayo yamandla elanga, okuholela kumaphothifoliyo okutshala izimali ahlukahlukene futhi okungenzeka azinze kakhudlwana.
• Izizwe ezinemisebe yelanga ephezulu, ikakhulukazi lezo ezinezinsiza zemvelo ezimbalwa, ezitshala imali kwingqalasizinda emikhulu yelanga, ezishintsha zibe abathumeli bamandla ngaphandle futhi zilungise kabusha amandla omhlaba.
• Izakhiwo zokuhlala nezohwebo ziya ngokuya zifaka amaphaneli elanga njengesici esijwayelekile, okuholela ekwehleni kwezindleko zamandla kanye nokwenyuka kwezakhiwo ezikwazi ukuziphilisa, ezingekho kugridi.
• Izinkampani zobuchwepheshe bebhethri ziqinisa ucwaningo ukuze zehlise izindleko zebhethri, kuhloswe ngazo ukuthuthukisa indawo yokugcina amandla elanga, ngaleyo ndlela kuqinisekiswe ukutholakala kwamandla okungaguquki ngalé kwamahora okukhanya kwasemini.
• Amazwe e-G7 kanye namaqembu esifunda abalulekile abeka phambili amandla elanga ekuhleleni ingqalasizinda, ukushayela ukutshalwa kwezimali ekukhiqizweni kwendawo kwamaphaneli elanga kanye nobuchwepheshe obuhlobene ukuze kuvikeleke ukuzimela kwamandla.
• Izinzuzo zezomnotho zesikhathi eside njengoba ukwanda kokusetshenziswa kwamandla elanga kuholela ekwehleni kwezindleko zikagesi, okungenzeka kunciphise izindleko zizonke zezimboni futhi kukhuphule ukukhula komnotho.
• Ohulumeni abakha izinqubomgomo nemithetho emisha ukuze basekele futhi balawule ukushintshela kumandla elanga, okuhlanganisa nezinzuzo zokwamukelwa kanye nemihlahlandlela yokuhlanganisa igridi.
• Ukuguqulwa kwemakethe yemisebenzi ngamathuba amasha okukhiqiza amaphaneli elanga, ukufakwa, ukunakekelwa, kanye nokuhlanganiswa kwegridi, okuhambisana nokwehla kwemisebenzi evamile ehlobene nophethiloli wezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi.
• Izinzuzo zemvelo ezivela ekuncishisweni kokwethembela kumafutha ezinto ezimbiwa phansi, okuholela ekwehliseni ukukhishwa kwesisi esibamba ukushisa kanye nomthelela omuhle kukhwalithi yomoya nempilo yomphakathi.
• Ukushintsha kwezenhlalo njengoba imiphakathi ithola ukufinyelela kugesi welanga othengekayo futhi othembekile, ukukhuthaza ukulingana kwamandla kanye nokushintsha amaphethini okufudukela emadolobheni nokuthuthukiswa kwezindawo zasemakhaya.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Inani lamandla elanga liyehla minyaka yonke. Ingabe ukholelwa ukuthi amandla elanga azoba umthombo wamandla oyinhloko emhlabeni wonke esikhathini esizayo?
• Isiphi isimo esingaba khona esingasongela ukukhula kwesikhathi esizayo kanye/noma ukubusa kokutholwa kwamandla elanga?