I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Abantu bazophakama kanjani ngo-2030: Ikusasa lobugebengu P4

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 08:52

Sonke singabasebenzisi bezidakamizwa. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi utshwala, ugwayi, nokhula noma izidambisi zezinhlungu, izidambisi, namaphilisi okucindezeleka, ukubhekana nezimo ezishintshile kube yingxenye yokuhlangenwe nakho komuntu izinkulungwane zeminyaka. Umehluko kuphela phakathi kokhokho bethu nanamuhla ukuthi sinokuqonda kangcono isayensi ngemuva kokukhuphuka.

Kodwa liyini ikusasa lalokhu kuzijabulisa kwasendulo? Ingabe siyongena enkathini lapho izidakamizwa zishabalala, izwe lapho wonke umuntu ekhetha ukuphila ukuphila okuhlanzekile?

Cha. Ngokusobala akunjalo. Lokho kungaba kubi kakhulu.

Akukhona nje ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwezidakamizwa kuzokhula emashumini eminyaka ezayo, izidakamizwa ezinikeza ukuphakama okuhle kakhulu ayikasungulwa. Kulesi sahluko sochungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lobugebengu, sihlola isidingo kanye nekusasa lezidakamizwa ezingekho emthethweni.

Amathrendi azobhebhethekisa ukusetshenziswa kwezidakamizwa zokuzijabulisa phakathi kuka-2020-2040

Uma kuziwa ezidakamizweni zokungcebeleka, izitayela eziningi zizosebenzisana ukuze kwandiswe ukusetshenziswa kwazo phakathi komphakathi. Kodwa izitayela ezintathu ezizoba nomthelela omkhulu zibandakanya ukufinyelela ezidakamizweni, imali engenayo etholakalayo yokuthenga izidakamizwa, kanye nesidingo esijwayelekile sezidakamizwa.

Uma kuziwa ekufinyeleleni, ukukhula kwezimakethe ezimnyama eziku-inthanethi kuthuthukise kakhulu ikhono labasebenzisi bezidakamizwa ngabanye (abavamile nabaluthekile) lokuthenga izidakamizwa ngokuphepha nangokuqonda. Lesi sihloko bese kuxoxiwe ngaso esahlukweni sesibili salolu chungechunge, kodwa ukufingqa: amawebhusayithi afana ne-Silkroad kanye nabalandelayo anikeza abasebenzisi isipiliyoni sokuthenga esifana ne-Amazon ngamashumi ezinkulungwane zohlu lwezidakamizwa. Lezi zimakethe ezimnyama eziku-inthanethi aziyi ndawo maduzane, futhi ukuthandwa kwazo kuzokhula njengoba amaphoyisa eba ngcono ekuvaleni izindandatho eziphusha izidakamizwa.

Lokhu kutholakala kalula okusha kuzophinde kugqugquzelwe ukwenyuka kwemali engenayo etholakalayo esikhathini esizayo phakathi komphakathi jikelele. Lokhu kungase kuzwakale njengokuhlanya namuhla kodwa cabangela lesi sibonelo. Okokuqala kuxoxwe ngayo esahlukweni sesibili sethu Ikusasa Lezokuthutha uchungechunge, izindleko zobunikazi ezimaphakathi zemoto yabagibeli base-US cishe $ 9,000 njalo ngonyaka. Ngokusho kukaProffered CEO Zack Kanter, "Sekuvele konga kakhulu ukusebenzisa isevisi yokwabelana ngokugibela uma uhlala edolobheni futhi ushayela ngaphansi kwamamayela angu-10,000 ngonyaka." Ukukhishwa okuzayo kwezinsiza ezisebenza ngogesi wonke, amatekisi azishayelayo kanye nezinsiza zokwabelana ngabagibeli kuzosho ukuthi abantu abaningi basemadolobheni ngeke besadinga ukuthenga imoto, ingasaphathwa eyokuthi umshwalense wanyanga zonke, ukunakekelwa, kanye nezindleko zokupaka. Kwabaningi, lokhu kungangeza ekongeni phakathi kuka-$3,000 kuya ku-$7,000 ngonyaka.

Futhi lokho nje ezokuthutha. Ukuphumelela okunhlobonhlobo kwezobuchwepheshe nesayensi (ikakhulukazi lezo ezihlobene nokuzenzakalela) zizoba nemiphumela efanayo yokwehla kwamandla emali kuyo yonke into kusukela ekudleni, ukuya ekunakekelweni kwezempilo, ezimpahleni zokudayisa nokunye okuningi. Imali eyongiwe kulezi zindleko zokuphila ingaphambukiselwa kwezinye izinto ezisetshenziswa umuntu siqu, futhi kwabanye, lokhu kuzohlanganisa nezidakamizwa.

Amathrendi azobhebhethekisa ukusetshenziswa kwemithi okungekho emthethweni phakathi kuka-2020-2040

Yiqiniso, izidakamizwa azizona zodwa abantu abazisebenzisa kabi. Abaningi baphikisa ngokuthi isizukulwane sanamuhla yiso esinemithi eminingi kakhulu emlandweni. Ingxenye yesizathu ukuthi kungani ukukhula kokukhangisa kwezidakamizwa emashumini amabili eminyaka adlule okukhuthaza iziguli ukuthi zisebenzise imithi eminingi kunaleyo ebezingayenza emashumini ambalwa eminyaka ngaphambili. Esinye isizathu ukwakhiwa kohlu lwemithi emisha engalapha izifo eziningi kakhulu kunalokho obekungenzeka esikhathini esidlule. Ngenxa yalezi zici ezimbili, ukuthengiswa kwemithi emhlabeni jikelele kungaphezu kwethriliyoni eyodwa yamadola USD futhi kukhula ngamaphesenti amahlanu kuya kwayisikhombisa ngonyaka.

Kodwa-ke, kukho konke lokhu kukhula, i-Big Pharma idonsa kanzima. Njengoba kuxoxwe ngakho esahlukweni sesibili sethu Ikusasa Lempilo uchungechunge, kuyilapho ososayensi bechaze ukwakheka kwamangqamuzana ezifo ezingaba ngu-4,000, sinokwelashwa cishe kwezingu-250 zazo. Isizathu singenxa yokuqaphela okubizwa ngokuthi uMthetho we-Eroom ('Moore' emuva) lapho inani lezidakamizwa eligunyazwe ngebhiliyoni ngayinye ngamadola e-R&D liba ngohhafu njalo eminyakeni eyisishiyagalolunye, elungiselelwa ukukhuphuka kwamanani emali. Abanye basola lokhu kwehla okukhubazayo kokukhiqizwa kwemithi ngendlela izidakamizwa ezixhaswa ngayo, abanye basola uhlelo lwelungelo lobunikazi olucindezela ngokweqile, izindleko ezeqile zokuhlola, iminyaka edingekayo ukuze kugunyazwe umthetho—zonke lezi zici zidlala indima kule modeli ephukile.

Emphakathini jikelele, lokhu kuncipha kokukhiqiza kanye nezindleko ezikhuphukayo ze-R&D kugcina kukhuphule intengo yemithi, futhi lapho amanani entengo ekhuphuka kakhulu, abantu abaningi bazophendukela kubathengisi nasezimakethe ezimnyama eziku-inthanethi ukuze bathenge imithi abayidingayo ukuze baqhubeke bephila. .

Esinye isici esibalulekile okufanele sikhumbule ukuthi kuwo wonke amazwe aseMelika, eYurophu, nasezingxenyeni ezithile ze-Asia, inani labantu asebekhulile libikezelwa ukuthi lizokhula ngendlela emangalisayo phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili ezayo. Futhi kubantu abadala, izindleko zabo zokunakekelwa kwezempilo zivame ukukhula kakhulu lapho behamba bejula phakathi neminyaka yabo yobumnyama. Uma laba bantu abadala bengalondolozi ngendlela efanele imali yabo yokuthatha umhlalaphansi, izindleko zemithi yesikhathi esizayo zingabaphoqa, kanye nezingane ezithembele kuzo, ukuthi bathenge izidakamizwa ngaphandle kwemakethe.

Ukwehliswa kwezidakamizwa

Elinye iphuzu elinemithelela ebanzi ekusetshenzisweni komphakathi kokubili kwezidakamizwa zokungcebeleka kanye nemithi ukuthambekela okwandayo ekuyekisweni kokulawulwa.

Njengoba kuhlolwa ku isahluko sesithathu bakithi Ikusasa Lomthetho uchungechunge, ngeminyaka yawo-1980 yaqala "impi yezidakamizwa" eyafika nezinqubomgomo zesigwebo ezinokhahlo, ikakhulukazi isikhathi sasejele esiyisibopho. Umphumela oqondile walezi zinqubomgomo kwaba ukuqhuma kweziboshwa zase-US zisuka ngaphansi kuka-300,000 ngo-1970 (cishe iziboshwa eziyi-100 kweziyi-100,000) zaya ezigidini ezingu-1.5 ngo-2010 (ngaphezu kweziboshwa ezingu-700 kweziyi-100,000) kanye nokukhululwa ngeshwele kwezigidi ezine. Lezi zinombolo azibali ngisho nezigidi eziboshiwe noma ezibulewe emazweni aseNingizimu Melika ngenxa yethonya lase-US kuzinqubomgomo zabo zokusebenzisa izidakamizwa.

Futhi nokho abanye bangaphikisa ukuthi izindleko zangempela zazo zonke lezi zinqubomgomo ezinzima zezidakamizwa kwakuyisizukulwane esilahlekile kanye nophawu olumnyama kwikhampasi yokuziphatha yomphakathi. Khumbula ukuthi iningi lalabo ababoshelwe emajele kwakuyimilutha kanye nabadayisi bezidakamizwa abasezingeni eliphansi, hhayi izinduna zezidakamizwa. Ngaphezu kwalokho, iningi lalezi zigebengu livela ezindaweni ezimpofu, ngaleyo ndlela zengeza ukucwasa ngokobuhlanga kanye nezimpi zezigaba ezingaphansi kwesicelo sokuboshwa esivele sinempikiswano. Lezi zindaba zobulungiswa bezenhlalakahle zinomthelela ekugudlukeni kwesizukulwane ekusekelweni okungaboni kokulutheka kanye nokuya ekuxhaseni ngezimali izikhungo zokwelulekwa nokwelashwa ezibonakale zisebenza kangcono.

Yize engekho usopolitiki ofuna ukubukeka ebuthakathaka ebugebengwini, lokhu kuguquguquka kancane kancane emibonweni yomphakathi ekugcineni kuzobona ukuhoxiswa nokulawulwa kwensangu emazweni amaningi athuthukile ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020. Lokhu kuhoxiswa kuzokwenza ukuthi ukusetshenziswa kwensangu kujwayelekile phakathi komphakathi jikelele, kufane nokuphela kokwenqatshelwa, okuzoholela ekukhishweni kwezidakamizwa eziningi njengoba isikhathi sihamba. Nakuba lokhu kungeke ngempela kuholele ekwenyukeni okukhulu kokusetshenziswa kwezidakamizwa, nakanjani kuzoba nokushayisana okubonakalayo okuzosetshenziswa phakathi komphakathi wonke.

Izidakamizwa zesikhathi esizayo kanye nokuphakama kwesikhathi esizayo

Manje sekuza ingxenye yalesi sahluko ekhuthaze iningi lenu ukuthi lifunde (noma leqe) kuwo wonke umongo ongenhla: izidakamizwa zesikhathi esizayo ezizokunikeza ikusasa ukuphakama kwakho kwekusasa!

Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020 kanye nasekuqaleni kwawo-2030, intuthuko ekuthuthukisweni kwakamuva okufana ne-CRISPR (kuchazwe ku- isahluko sesithathu yochungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lezempilo) luzokwenza ososayensi baselabhorethri kanye nososayensi basegaraji bakwazi ukukhiqiza uhla lwezitshalo namakhemikhali akhiqizwe ngofuzo anezici ezithinta ingqondo. Le mithi ingasungulwa ukuze iphephe, futhi ibe namandla kakhulu kunalokho okumakethe namuhla. Le mithi ingabuye yenziwe ukuthi ibe nezitayela ezicaciswe ngokwedlulele zokuphakama okuphezulu, futhi ingaklanywa ngisho ne-physiology ehlukile noma i-DNA yomsebenzisi (umsebenzisi ocebile ikakhulukazi ukuthi abe neqiniso).

Kepha ngeminyaka yawo-2040s, ukuphakama okususelwa kumakhemikhali kuzobe sekuphelelwe yisikhathi ngokuphelele.

Khumbula ukuthi zonke izidakamizwa zokuzilibazisa ezenziwayo zivula noma zivimbele ukukhululwa kwamakhemikhali athile ngaphakathi kobuchopho bakho. Lo mphumela ungenziwa kalula ngokufakwa kobuchopho. Futhi sibonga inkambu evelayo ye-Brain-Computer Interface (echazwe ku isahluko sesithathu bakithi Ikusasa Lamakhompyutha series), leli kusasa alikude njengoba ubungacabanga. Izimila ze-Cochlear sezisetshenziswe iminyaka njengekhambi eliphelele lokungezwa, kuyilapho izimila ezijulile zokuvuselela ubuchopho ziye zasetshenziswa ukwelapha isithuthwane, i-Alzheimer's, kanye nesifo sika-Parkinson.

Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, sizoba nezimila zobuchopho ze-BCI ezingalawula isimo sakho sengqondo—okuhle kubantu abaphethwe ukucindezeleka okungapheli, futhi kuhle ngokulinganayo kubasebenzisi bezidakamizwa abathanda ukuswayipha uhlelo lokusebenza ocingweni lwabo ukuze benze kusebenze umuzwa wenjabulo noma wenjabulo wemizuzu engu-15. . Noma ungathini ngokuvula uhlelo lokusebenza olukunikeza i-orgasm esheshayo. Noma mhlawumbe ngisho nohlelo lokusebenza olungcolisa ukubona kwakho okubonakalayo, okufana nezihlungi zobuso be-Snapchat khipha ifoni. Okungcono nokho, lokhu kuphakama kwedijithali kungahlelwa ukuthi kuhlale kukunikeza i-premium ephezulu, kuyilapho futhi kuqinisekiswe ukuthi awusebenzisi ngokweqile.

Sekukonke, isiko le-pop noma i-counterculture craze yama-2040s izogqugquzelwa izinhlelo zokusebenza eziklanywe ngokucophelela, zedijithali, ezithinta ingqondo. Futhi yingakho abashisekeli bezidakamizwa bakusasa bengeke baqhamuke eColombia noma eMexico, bazophuma eSilicon Valley.

Khonamanjalo, ngasohlangothini lwemithi, amalebhu ezokwelapha azoqhubeka nokuphuma nezinhlobo ezintsha zamaphilisi ezinhlungu kanye namaphilisi okulalisa okungenzeka ahlukunyezwe yilabo abaphethwe yizimo ezingapheli. Ngokunjalo, amalebhu ezokwelapha axhaswe ngasese azoqhubeka nokukhiqiza inqwaba yezidakamizwa ezithuthukisa ukusebenza kahle ezizothuthukisa izici zomzimba ezifana namandla, isivinini, ukubekezela, isikhathi sokululama, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, kwenze lokho konke kuyilapho kuba nzima kakhulu ukubonwa ngama-anti- ama-ejensi wokudotshwa—ungaqagela okungenzeka ukuthi le mithi izoheha amakhasimende.

Bese kuza intandokazi yami yomuntu siqu, ama-nootropics, inkambu ezongena endaweni ejwayelekile maphakathi nawo-2020. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ukhetha isitaki se-nootropic esilula njenge-caffeine ne-L-theanine (ifav yami) noma okuthile okuthuthuke kakhulu njenge-piracetam ne-choline combo, noma imithi kadokotela efana ne-Modafinil, i-Adderall, ne-Ritalin, amakhemikhali athuthuke kakhulu azovela emakethe athembisa ukuthuthukiswa. ukugxila, isikhathi sokuphendula, ukugcinwa kwenkumbulo, nokudala. Kunjalo, uma sesivele sikhuluma ngokufakelwa kobuchopho, khona-ke inyunyana yesikhathi esizayo yobuchopho bethu ne-inthanethi izokwenza zonke lezi zithuthukisi zamakhemikhali ziphelelwe yisikhathi futhi ... kodwa leso isihloko solunye uchungechunge.

Sekukonke, uma lesi sahluko sikufundisa okuthile, kungukuthi ikusasa ngeke libulale izinga lakho eliphezulu. Uma usezifundeni ezishintshile, izinketho zezidakamizwa ozothola kuzo emashumini eminyaka ezayo zizoshibhile, zibe ngcono, ziphephe, zibe ziningi, futhi zifinyeleleke kalula kunanoma isiphi isikhathi emlandweni wesintu.