I-Strategic Foresight
Ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu kuyindlela ehlelekile yokusebenzisa imibono ngekusasa ukuze ubikezele futhi ulungiselele kangcono ushintsho.
Umhlahlandlela Ophelele Wokulungela Ikusasa
Ngenkathi ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 luhlasela ngo-2020, umhlaba wawungakayilungeli imiphumela yawo. Noma sesike sabhekana nezifo eziningi eziwumshayabhuqe futhi sacabanga ukuthi sinombono wokuthi singabhekana kanjani nalezi zinkinga zokunakekelwa kwezempilo, i-coronavirus ibonakale iyingqayizivele, inamaqhinga, futhi iqinile. Lo bhubhane uyisibonelo esisodwa sokuthi izehlakalo ezingavamile zingaguqula kanjani umhlaba, ziphazamise amabhizinisi, imisebenzi, kanye nezimboni zonke.
Kule nkathi yoshintsho olusheshayo kanye nokungaqiniseki okukhulayo, amasu okubona kusengaphambili sekuphenduke ithuluzi elibalulekile ezinhlanganweni nakohulumeni. Kuyindlela ehlelekile yokusebenzisa imibono ngekusasa ukuze ubikezele futhi ulungiselele kangcono ushintsho. Ngokuhlola ikusasa elingenzeka elihlukile kanye namathuba nezinselele abangazethula, ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu kusivumela ukuba senze izinqumo ezingcono futhi senze okuthile. manje.
Yini i-Strategic Foresight?
Ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu, kwesinye isikhathi okubizwa ngokuthi izifundo zekusasa, kuyindlela yokuthi izinhlangano ziqoqe futhi ziqonde ulwazi mayelana nendawo yazo yokusebenza yesikhathi esizayo. Lolu lwazi lungabandakanya izinguquko kwezombusazwe, ezomnotho, umphakathi, ubuchwepheshe, kanye nemithetho.
Ngenkathi i-Market Intelligence kade ikhona, i-Strategic Foresight yinto entsha emabhizinisini nasemaqenjini omphakathi. Ngenxa yalokhu, abantu abaningi abawazi amagama asetshenziswa kulo mkhakha. Kodwa emhlabeni oguquguqukayo, ongaqinisekile, oyinkimbinkimbi, futhi ongaqondakali (VUCA), ukungabi nohlelo oluhle lokubona izinto kusengaphambili kungaholela ezinkingeni ezinkulu kuzo zonke izinhlobo zezinhlangano.
Ochwepheshe abaningi bakholelwa ukuthi bangabikezela izinguquko embonini noma endaweni yabo, okungenani iminyaka embalwa ezayo. Nokho, izinsongo ezinkulu noma amathuba ngokuvamile avela kwezinye izimboni kuqala. Amathrendi amasha noma izinguquko zingavela ezindaweni ezihlobene noma emphakathini obanzi. Ekuqaleni, lezi zingase zibonakale zingahlobene, kodwa ngokuvamile ziqhuba ushintsho oluzogcina luthinte ikusasa lomuntu, ngezinye izikhathi ngezindlela ezimangalisayo.
Kungakho kubalulekile ukuqonda isithombe esikhulu sezinguquko embonini nasemphakathini. Kodwa ukuqonda lezi zinguquko akwanele. Nakuba ungaba nombono omuhle wezinguquko ezenzekayo phakathi neminyaka emibili kuya kwemithathu ezayo, kuba nzima ukubheka izinguquko ezikude. Njengoba ubheka phambili esikhathini esizayo, maningi amathuba okuba.
Ngokusho kwe-CEO yonyaka we-PwC Ucwaningo, abaphathi abakhulu bayakubona ukusongelwa kokuphazamiseka, kodwa bavume ukuthi ukulungiselela kungaba inselele. Cishe amaphesenti angu-40 abo akholelwa ukuthi inkampani yabo ngeke ikwazi ukusimama ngokwezimali eminyakeni eyi-10 kusukela manje uma igcina indlela yayo yamanje. Lo mbono uzwakala ezimbonini ezahlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa ubuchwepheshe (amaphesenti angama-41), ezokuxhumana (amaphesenti angama-46), ezempilo (amaphesenti angama-42), kanye nokukhiqiza (amaphesenti angama-43).
Iqhaza Lokubonela Phambili Kwamasu
Ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu kuya kuduma ezinkampanini ezinkulu, kohulumeni, nezinhlangano ezingenzi nzuzo. Muva nje, ochwepheshe bebelokhu bedingida ukuthi ukubona izinto kusengaphambili kanye nokuphathwa kokusungula kuxhumene kanjani.
Ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu kungasetshenziswa ngezindlela ezahlukene. Kubantu ngabanye, kumayelana nokubeka imigomo yomuntu siqu neyomsebenzi nokwenza izinhlelo zokufinyelela lezi zinhloso. Ezinhlanganweni, kumayelana nokuthuthukisa indlela ezenza ngayo ibhizinisi. Emphakathini, kumayelana nokubona ngeso lengqondo isigaba esilandelayo sempucuko esidlula umhlaba wethu wamanje ogxile kubuchwepheshe.
Ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu kumayelana nokudala umbono ocacile nowusizo wekusasa nokusebenzisa lowo mbono ngezindlela eziwusizo. Lolu hlelo lokusebenza lungasho ukubona izinkinga ngaphambi kokuthi zenzeke, inqubomgomo eqondisayo, isu lokubumba, noma ukuthola izimakethe ezintsha, imikhiqizo, namasevisi. Kuyingxube yezindlela zokucabanga ngekusasa nokuphathwa kwamasu.
Isibonelo sezinhlangano ezisebenzisa i-Strategic Foresight yi-European Commission, eshicilela njalo ngonyaka umbiko wayo we-Strategic Foresight Report. Ngoba 2023, kugxilwe ekungabini hlangothi kwesimo sezulu futhi esimeme, inguquko ezothuthukisa ukuzimela kwesu le-EU, ukuncintisana, kanye nobuholi bomhlaba.
Nokho, lolu shintsho luzoletha izinselele futhi ludinga izinqumo ezizoba nomthelela ngokushesha nangokuphawulekayo emiphakathini nakwezomnotho. Umbiko wango-2023 uveza lezi zinselele, uphakamisa izindawo zokusebenza ukuze kube noshintsho oluyimpumelelo, futhi uncoma ukulungiswa kwesamba somkhiqizo wasekhaya (GDP) ukuze sifake izici ezifana nempilo kanye nemvelo.
Ukubaluleka Kokubona kusengaphambili Kwamasu
Ngaphandle kwe-Strategic Foresight, inhlangano ingase ikwazi ukuqonda kahle izitayela zesikhathi esifushane embonini yayo noma ngisho nezimo zesikhathi eside ezivamile emphakathini. Kodwa, kudingeka okwengeziwe emhlabeni oxhumene lapho ushintsho lwenzeka ngokushesha, futhi imingcele phakathi kwemikhakha ifiphalisa.
Okwenzeka ngakolunye uhlangothi lomhlaba kunomthelela kwenye indawo. Ukuqala okuncane namuhla kungase kwehlise inkampani enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni kusasa. Ukungazinzi kwezombusazwe kungashintsha amandla futhi kube nemiphumela esabalele emhlabeni wonke. Ingasaphathwa ukuthi akekho owaziyo ukuthi kuzosiyisa kuphi ubuhlakani bokufakelwa (AI), i-automation, nezinye izindawo ezithuthuka ngokushesha.
Ngenhlanhla, umsebenzi wokubona izinto kusengaphambili ohlelekile uzuze umfutho, lezi zihloko zibusa izingqungquthela nemihlangano yebhizinisi. Ziyanda izinhlangano ezifuna ukuqonda ukuthi umhlaba ushintsha kanjani nokuthi zingasebenzisa kanjani lezi zinguquko. Inhloso ye-Strategic Foresight iwukubasiza ngalo msebenzi oyinselele kanye nokuqinisekisa ukuthi izinhlangano zenza izinqumo ezisekelwe emibonweni ehlaziywe ngokucophelela yezinye izimo zesikhathi esizayo.
Ngokusho kwe-2017 cwaningo, izinkampani ezilungele ikusasa (“ziqaphile”) zinenzuzo ephakeme ngamaphesenti angu-33, futhi inani lazo lemakethe lakhula ngamaphesenti angu-200 ngaphezu kwesilinganiso. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, amafemu abengakalungiselelwa ikusasa abone ukusebenza kwawo kwehle ngamaphesenti angama-37 kuya kwayi-108.
Izinzuzo Zokubona kusengaphambili Kwamasu
Lungela ukuphatha ushintsho.
Enye yezinzuzo eziyinhloko zokubona kusengaphambili kwamasu ukuthi kukusiza ukuthi ulungele ushintsho. Ngokubona amathrendi amasha kanye nokuphazamiseka okungenzeka kusenesikhathi, izinkampani zingalungisa amasu azo kanye nokusebenza kusenesikhathi esikhundleni sokusabela kushintsho ngemuva kokwenzeka. Le ndlela yokubheka phambili isiza izinhlangano ukuthi zihlale isinyathelo esisodwa ngaphambi kwezimbangi futhi zibambe amathuba amasha njengoba ziqhamuka.
Thuthukisa imibono emisha nokudala.
Ukubona kusengaphambili okunamasu kungakhuthaza imibono emisha nokudala ngaphakathi kwenhlangano ngokubheka ikusasa elihlukile nokubuza izinkolelo ezifanayo. Njengoba izinkampani zibona izitayela ezintsha futhi zicabanga ngezimpendulo ezingaba khona, ziphoqeleka ukuba zicabange ngobuciko futhi zithuthukise imibono emisha, imikhiqizo, kanye nezinsizakalo. Le ndlela yokucabanga yokudala isiza amabhizinisi ukuthi ahlale phambili futhi agcine ukuncintisana kwawo emakethe.
Gwema izinkinga futhi uthathe amathuba.
Ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu kusiza izinkampani ziqonde kangcono ubungozi namathuba ezimo ezahlukene zesikhathi esizayo. Ngokutadisha nokuqonda imiphumela engaba khona, izinhlangano zingenza izinqumo ezihlakaniphile mayelana nokutshalwa kwezimali kwazo kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezinsiza. Futhi ngokukhuthala ngokulawula ubungozi, izinkampani zingagwema amaphutha abizayo futhi zisebenzise amathuba okungenzeka aphuthelwe ngenye indlela.
Khuthaza isiko lokufunda nokuvumelana nezimo.
Ukusebenzisa amasu okubona kusengaphambili ezinhlelweni zenhlangano yakho kukhuthaza isiko lokufunda nokuvumelana nezimo. Abasebenzi bafunda kabanzi mayelana namandla abumba imboni yabo ngokuqhubekayo ngokuhlola amathuba esikhathi esizayo kanye nokwenza ngcono ekusingatheni izinguquko. Lokhu kuvumelana nezimo nokuqina kubaluleke kakhulu ezweni lebhizinisi eliba yinkimbinkimbi futhi elingaqinisekile.
Izindlela Zokubona kusengaphambili Zamasu
Nazi ezinye zezindlela ezisetshenziswa kakhulu ku-Strategic Foresight, kuye ngezinhloso zenhlangano.
Ukuhlaziywa Kwezimpawu
- Ukuhlaziywa kwesignali kumayelana nokubona izimpawu zezinguquko zesikhathi esizayo esikhathini samanje.
Lezi zimpawu zingaba imikhiqizo, izinqubomgomo, izehlakalo, nolwazi olusibonisa ukuthi umhlaba ushintsha kanjani. - Amasignali ahlukile kubashayeli, okuyizitayela ezinkulu, zesikhathi eside ezizoba nomthelela omkhulu esikhathini esizayo, njengokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu noma inani labantu abaguga.
- Ngokubona kusengaphambili, amasignali abuthakathaka ayizimpawu zokuqala zezinguquko zesikhathi esizayo ezingase zibe khona ezingaqinisekile futhi ezinomthelela omncane. Izimpawu eziqinile ziyizimpawu eziqinisekile zezinguquko zesikhathi esizayo ezizoba nomthelela omkhulu.
Injongo
- Izinhlangano zisebenzisa ukuhlaziywa kwesignali ukuze zilungiselele ikusasa ngokubona izinguquko ezingaba khona futhi zenze izinqumo zamasu ezisekelwe kulolo lwazi.
- Kodwa amasignali angase angahlali ecacile noma ethembekile, futhi kungase kube nzima ukusho ukuthi yiziphi izimpawu eziyizimpawu zangempela zezinguquko zesikhathi esizayo futhi iziphi eziwumsindo nje.
Indlela yokusebenzisa
- Uhlaka lwe-STEEP (lwezenhlalakahle, ezobuchwepheshe, ezomnotho, ezemvelo, ezombusazwe) luyindlela ewusizo yokuhlaziya amasignali. Ihlola izimpawu zezenhlalo, ezobuchwepheshe, ezomnotho, ezemvelo, nezombusazwe.
- Lapho uhlaziya amasignali, kubalulekile ukubheka emaphethelweni enkambu noma imboni, uqaphele ukuchema, futhi ucabangele izinguquko ezingaphandle komkhakha womuntu.
Ukuskena kwe-Horizon
- Ukuskena kwe-Horizon kuyindlela yokubona izimpawu zakuqala zezinsongo ezingaba khona noma amathuba.
- Kubandakanya ukubheka ngendlela ehlelekile ukuthuthukiswa okungenzeka okungakacatshangelwa kabanzi.
Injongo
- Izinhlangano zisebenzisa le ndlela ukuhlonza amasignali abonisa izinguquko zamanje noma ezizayo. Lezi zimpawu zingaxoxwa futhi zihlolwe ukuze kubonwe izinkinga ezivelayo okungenzeka ukuthi bezingakaqashelwa okwamanje.
- Izinzuzo zokuskena komkhathizwe zihlanganisa ukulangazelela kangcono izinkinga namathuba, ukwenziwa kwezinqumo okuthuthukisiwe, ukulungela okwengeziwe, kanye nekhono lokubona amathrendi.
Indlela yokusebenzisa
- Indlela yokuskena yokuhlola iqoqa ukukhathazeka okungaba khona emithonjeni ehlukahlukene yedatha.
- Inqubo egxile endabeni ihlonza amadokhumenti abalulekile anikeza ulwazi olubalulekile mayelana nezindaba ezingase zibe khona.
- Inhlanganisela engcono kakhulu yamasu incike ezinhlosweni zenhlangano, ukuqwashisa umphakathi, izingozi ezingaba khona, kanye nomthelela wenkinga.
Ukuhlaziywa kwesimo
- Ukuhlaziywa kwesimo akuphathelene nokubikezela okuqondile kodwa kumayelana nokucabangela ikusasa elingenzeka elihlukile kanye nokukhetha nemiphumela engase ize nazo.
- Le ndlela yasungulwa ngawo-1950 futhi manje isetshenziswa emikhakheni eminingi, kuhlanganise nenqubomgomo yomphakathi kanye nokuvikela.
Injongo
Izinhlangano zisebenzisa ukuhlaziya isimo ukuze zizisize zihlelele ikusasa, ziqonde isizinda sesiginali kanye nemiphumela yazo engaba khona, zihlole izimo ezingaba khona zesikhathi esizayo, ziqaphe izimbangi, futhi zenze izinqumo ezingcono.
Indlela yokusebenzisa
- Inqubo ngokuvamile ihilela ukukhomba inkinga ethile noma isinqumo, ukuhlonza nokuhlaziya abashayeli abayinhloko, ukukala laba bashayeli ngokusekelwe ekubalulekeni nasekungaqinisekini, ukukhetha ukucabanga kwesimo, ukusungula imigqa yezindaba, kanye nokuhlola imithelela yalezi zimo.
- Kubalulekile ukubandakanya iqembu elihlukahlukene labathatha izinqumo ababalulekile, ochwepheshe bangaphandle, nabanye abanemibono ebalulekile enqubweni yokwakha isimo.
- Leli qembu lingabandakanya abantu abavela ezizindeni ezihlukene, njengesayensi nobuchwepheshe, isayensi yezenhlalo, isayensi yezemvelo, ezomnotho, kanye nezibalo zabantu.
Izizathu eziseduze zokusebenzisa ukubona kusengaphambili
Umbono womkhiqizo
Qoqa ugqozi oluvela kumathrendi wesikhathi esizayo ukuze udizayine imikhiqizo emisha, amasevisi, izinqubomgomo, namamodeli ebhizinisi inhlangano yakho engatshala kuwo namuhla.
I-Cross-industry market intelligence
Qoqa ubuhlakani bemakethe mayelana nokuthrendayo okuvelayo okwenzeka ezimbonini ezingaphandle kwendawo yobuchwepheshe yethimba lakho ezingase zibe nomthelela ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile ekusebenzeni kwenhlangano yakho.
Ukwakhiwa kwesimo
Hlola izimo zebhizinisi zesikhathi esizayo (emihlanu, eyi-10, engu-20+) inhlangano yakho engase isebenze kuzo futhi uhlonze amasu asebenzayo empumelelo kulezi zindawo ezizayo.
Izinhlelo zokuxwayisa zakuqala
Sungula izinhlelo zokuxwayisa kusenesikhathi ukuze ulungiselele ukuphazamiseka kwemakethe.
Ukuhlelwa kwamasu nokuthuthukiswa kwenqubomgomo
Thola izixazululo zesikhathi esizayo ezinseleleni ezinzima zanamuhla. Sebenzisa le mininingwane ukuze usebenzise izinqubomgomo zokusungula kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza osukwini lwamanje.
Ukuhlola ubuchwepheshe kanye nokuqalisa
Cwaninga ngobuchwepheshe neziqalo/ozakwethu abadingekayo ukuze kwakhiwe futhi kuqalwe umbono webhizinisi wesikhathi esizayo noma isu lokunweba lesikhathi esizayo lemakethe eqondiwe.
Ukubeka phambili ngezimali
Sebenzisa izivivinyo zokwakha isimo ukuze uhlonze izinto ezibalulekile ocwaningweni, uhlele uxhaso lwesayensi nobuchwepheshe, futhi uhlele izindleko zomphakathi ezinkulu ezingaba nemiphumela yesikhathi eside (isb, ingqalasizinda).
Yini eyenza uhlelo lwe-Strategic Foresight lube yimpumelelo?
Ukuze usebenzise ngempumelelo ukubona kwangaphambili kwamasu, udinga ukuhlela okuhle, ukwenza, nokuhlola okuvamile. Nazi izinto ezibalulekile okufanele uzikhumbule:
Ukusekelwa ngabaholi
Abaholi abaphezulu kumele bazinikele ekusebenziseni amasu okubona kusengaphambili. Kufanele bakulungele ukunikeza isikhathi, izinsiza, nokusekelwa okudingekayo ukuze kusebenze kahle enhlanganweni.
Ukwakha ithimba elihle lokubona izinto kusengaphambili
Iqembu kufanele libe nabantu abanamakhono nezizinda ezahlukene. Kufanele bakwazi ukucwaninga, ukubona izitayela, ukuhlaziya idatha, futhi baguqule abakufundayo kube izinhlelo ezingase zisetshenziswe.
Ukusebenza nabanye ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwenhlangano
Ukubona kusengaphambili akunakwenziwa uwedwa. Kubalulekile ukusebenzisana nabanye enhlanganweni ukuze uqinisekise ukuthi ulwazi oluvela ekuboneni kusengaphambili luwusizo futhi lungasetshenziswa. Le nqubo ihlanganisa ukusebenzisana neminyango eyahlukene kanye nababambiqhaza bangaphandle ukuze babone izitayela namathuba amasha.
Ukuvumelana nezimo
Ikusasa lihlala lishintsha, ngakho ithimba elibona izinto kusengaphambili lidinga ukulungele ukushintsha izinhlelo zalo lapho kudingeka. Kufanele bakulungele ukuvuselela imibono yabo futhi benze izinguquko lapho izinto zingahambi njengoba bekulindelekile.
Ukuhlala uhililekile
Wonke umuntu udinga ukuhlala ebambe iqhaza ekuboneni izinto kusengaphambili. Akuyona into oyenza kanye ukhohlwe ngayo. Kudinga ukuzibophezela kuwo wonke umuntu kuwo wonke amazinga.
Ihlola imiphumela
Kubalulekile ukubheka ukuthi ukubona kusengaphambili kusebenza kahle kangakanani, okuhlanganisa nokugcina irekhodi lokuthi izinhlelo zokubona kusenesikhathi zisetshenziswa kanjani nokuthi zisiza kanjani inhlangano.
Amathuluzi
Amathuluzi amaningi angasiza ngokubona izinto kusengaphambili, njengesofthiwe yokubuka idatha ngeso lengqondo, ukubona amathrendi, kanye nezimo zokuhlela.
Ukubona kusengaphambili kwamasu kumayelana nokubumba ikusasa, hhayi nje ukuphendula kulo. Kuyithuluzi elibalulekile lanoma iyiphi inhlangano noma uhulumeni ofuna ukulungela ikusasa. Alikho ibhola elicwebezelayo ukuze sibone ikusasa, kodwa singaba nekhampasi yokuyizulazula.
Imayelana nokwenza izinqumo ezingcono namuhla ezisekelwe ekuqondeni okujulile kwalokho okungase kuphathe kusasa. Futhi emhlabeni oshintshayo ngokushesha kunangaphambili, ukuqina nokulungela kungasho umehluko phakathi kokuvela kwenhlangano noma ukushabalala.
