Kunezindlela eziningana zokukhomba nokuhlaziya izitayela. Omunye uhilela ngokuqhubekayo ukuskena amasignali ezinguquko ezingaba khona nokusebenzisa izindlela ezifana nezingxoxo ukuze umbe ujule ekuthuthukisweni kwamanje njengezikhombi eziya kuguquko oluzayo. Ngokusekelwe kokuhlangenwe nakho kocwaningo oluthrendayo, amaphethini ayahlonzwa ukuze kulindelwe intuthuko efanele eqondene nomxholo wakho. Ithrendi ngayinye inezincazelo, amasiginali ahlobene, kanye namathuba aseduze kwesikhathi esizayo okufanele uwabheke ku-radar yakho.

Kusetshenziswa enye indlela idatha, imininingwane, izinhlaka, nobungcweti obuvela ngaphakathi nangaphandle kwenhlangano ukuze kwakhiwe amathrendi ahlukile nabalulekile. Le ndlela futhi ihilela ukuskena indawo ezungezile ukuze kutholwe izici ezingaqhuba izinguquko, ukuhlonza izinto ezingenzeka zesikhathi esizayo, kanye nokwakha nokuxhumana nezimo ezingase zenzeke kanye nezindaba ezixoxwayo zesikhathi esizayo. Le ndlela isiza ukulindela kanye nokubumba ikusasa elihle eligxile kumuntu emhlabeni ongaqinisekile.

Kuphinde kube nezindlela ezahlukahlukene ngokuya ngokuthi ufuna izincazelo ezikhethiwe zamathrendi noma uthole izithako zamathrendi. Kumuntu osanda kuqala ngokubona izinto kusengaphambili, amathuluzi amaningi ayatholakala okuhlonza ithrendi nokuhlaziya, njengezinsizakalo zokubuka amathrendi ezisekelwe ku-AI noma izinkundla zokukhetha izitayela. Lezi zinkundla ziqukethe izinkulungwane zamathrendi - ukusuka kumathrendi ama-mega kuye kwancane - kanye nencazelo yawo.

Nazi ezinye zezindlela ezisetshenziswa kakhulu ekuhlaziyeni amathrendi:

Ucwaningo lwamathrendi

Ucwaningo lwamathrendi lubandakanya ukuhlonza nokuhlaziya amaphethini kudatha ukuze ubikezele izehlakalo zesikhathi esizayo. Kuyithuluzi elibalulekile lokuqonda ukuziphatha kwabathengi, ukusebenza kwebhizinisi, kanye nomkhondo ongase ube khona wezimboni ezihlukahlukene.

Kunezindlela ezimbili eziyinhloko ze-methodological ocwaningweni lwethrendi:

• Ucwaningo oluyisisekelo: Lokhu kuhlanganisa ukuxhumana okuqondile namaqembu ahlukahlukene njengamakhasimende, abasebenzisi abaholayo, ochwepheshe abavela emikhakheni yesayensi nezimboni, abasebenzisi abavamile, abasebenzi, nabahlinzeki. Amasu, njengemihlangano yokucobelelana ngolwazi yochwepheshe nababambe iqhaza noma ucwaningo lwe-Delphi, angasetshenziswa ngempumelelo kule ndlela.

• Ucwaningo lwesibili: Le ndlela isebenzisa ulwazi olukhona. Kunemibiko eminingi yethrendi ekhona ezimbonini ezahlukahlukene, ezingasebenza njengezinsiza ezibalulekile nezisekelo zokuhlonza ithrendi.

Ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi

Ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi kukhomba amaphethini avamile phakathi kweqembu elithile labasebenzisi futhi kuqonda ukuthi la maphethini avele kanjani noma angase aguquke ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Le nqubo ibalulekile ekudaluleni amathuba amasha kanye nokukhiqiza imibono yemibono engaba khona noma imikhiqizo, ikwenze kube isu elibalulekile ukulisebenzisa phakathi nezigaba zokuqala zesigaba sokuklama.

Njengendlela yocwaningo ekwakhiweni, ukuhlaziywa kwethrendi kuhlanganisa ukuqoqa idatha ehlobene noma evela kubasebenzisi. Le datha ibe isicutshungulwa ukuze kuhlonzwe ithrendi, kamuva ihlaziywe ukuze kuqondwe ukuqhubeka kwayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Kunezimo, nokho, lapho umcwaningi edinga ukuhlola ithrendi ekhona phakathi kweqembu labasebenzisi. Kulezo zimo, idatha ethile iqoqwa kusukela kumaqembu abasebenzisi ngokubheka ngokucophelela ithrendi ukuze kukhonjwe imbangela yayo. Ukuhlonza imbangela yethrendi ngokuvamile kuyinselele kakhulu kunokuhlonza ithrendi ngokwayo. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi izici ezihlukahlukene, njengesikhathi sosuku, isizini, nendawo yendawo, zingathonya ithrendi, futhi lezi zici kufanele zibhalwe phansi phakathi nenqubo yokuqapha ithrendi.

I-Trend extrapolation

Ukwengezwa kwethrendi kuhlanganisa ukukhomba amaphethini kudatha esikhathini esithile nokusebenzisa lolo lwazi ukuze ubikezele amathrendi wesikhathi esizayo. Le nqubo ivamise ukwenziwa ngokunweba ijika eliwumugqa noma lomchazi wezibikezelo zesikhathi esifushane, kodwa ezinye izici, njengemikhawulo yokukhula, zizocatshangelwa ukubikezela kwesikhathi eside. Le mikhawulo ingabandakanya ukuthi ubuchwepheshe noma inkambiso yamasiko ingasakazeka kangakanani, futhi amajika ethrendi ahlukene angasetshenziswa ukuze kulingane idatha, njengejika lokuhamba. Kodwa-ke, kuyanconywa ukusebenzisa i-extrapolation nezinye izindlela zokubikezela, njengokwahlulela kochwepheshe kanye nokuhlaziya isimo.

I-Trend extrapolation ingase isetshenziselwe ukubikezela izitayela zesikhathi esizayo ezindaweni ezihlukahlukene, njengokuthengisa, ezezimali, ukumaketha, ukusebenza, ukuphathwa kwezinhlekelele, izinsiza zabantu, nokuningi. Ngokuhlonza amaphethini kudatha yomlando, izinhlangano zingasebenzisa ithrendi extrapolation ukuze zilindele izehlakalo zesikhathi esizayo futhi zenze izinqumo ezinolwazi ukuze zithuthukise imisebenzi yazo futhi zifinyelele imigomo yazo.

Kusetshenziswa izindlela ezihlukahlukene ukuze kubikezelwe izitayela zesikhathi esizayo kusetshenziswa idatha yomlando, eyaziwa ngokuthi amasu okubikezela aqinile; nokho, bangase bangacabangi ngaso sonke isikhathi izenzakalo ezingalindelekile.

Okuthrendayo kungenziwa ngeso lengqondo kusetshenziswa amagrafu omugqa, lapho ukuhluka okuncikile kuhlelwa ku-eksisi ka-y kanye nesikhathi ku-eksisi ka-x. Amathrendi angahlukaniswa abe izigaba eziningana:

• njalo - akukho ukukhula noma ukwehla jikelele. Kungase kube nokuguquguquka okuvamile, njengezikhathi zonyaka ezihlukene.

• Linear - ebonakala ngokunyuka okuzinzile nokungaguquguquki noma ukwehla kwedatha. Ulayini oqondile umele lawa mathrendi, futhi umthambeka ungaba umqansa noma kancane kancane, kuye ngokuthi idatha ishintsha ngokushesha kangakanani.

• Exponential - ukukhula noma ukwehla kwedatha kwenzeka ngenani elisheshayo. Esikhundleni sokuqhubeka okuzinzile, lolu hlobo lwethrendi lumelwa ijika, lapho inani lika-x (elifakwe ngokuvundlile) lisetshenziswa njenge-eksponenti kufomula yomugqa wethrendi ukuze kubalwe inani lika-y.

• Damped - isondela ku-asymptote evundlile noma umugqa ovundlile lapho igrafu yomsebenzi esondela kakhulu kuwo kodwa ingalokothi ithinte.