Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle: Usongo lwesikhathi esizayo kubantu basogwini

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE:
Isikweletu sezithombe
iStock

Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle: Usongo lwesikhathi esizayo kubantu basogwini

Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle: Usongo lwesikhathi esizayo kubantu basogwini

Umbhalo wesihlokwana
Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle kubonisa inkinga yobuntu esikhathini sokuphila kwethu.
    • About the Author:
    • Igama lomlobi
      I-Quantumrun Foresight
    • January 21, 2022

    Isifinyezo sokuqonda

    Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle, okuqhutshwa izici ezifana nokwanda kokushisa kanye nokugcinwa kwamanzi emhlabeni okubangelwa abantu, kubangela usongo olukhulu emiphakathini egudle ugu naseziqhingini. Le nselelo yezemvelo kulindeleke ukuthi ilungise kabusha umnotho, ezombusazwe kanye nemiphakathi, kube nemithelela engaba khona kusukela ekulahlekeni kwezindlu ezisogwini namasimu kuya ekushintsheni ezimakethe zemisebenzi kanye nokwanda kwesidingo semizamo yokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu. Naphezu kombono ongemuhle, lesi simo siphinde sinike amathuba okuzivumelanisa nomphakathi, okuhlanganisa ukuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe obumelana nezikhukhula, ukwakhiwa kwezindawo zokuvikela ugu, kanye nethuba lendlela esimeme yemisebenzi yezomnotho neyezimboni.

    Ukuphakama kwezinga lolwandle umongo

    Emashumini eminyaka amuva nje, amazinga olwandle aye enyuka. Amamodeli amasha nezilinganiso zithuthukise idatha esetshenziselwa ukubikezela ukuphakama kwezinga lolwandle, konke okuqinisekisa izinga elisheshayo lokukhuphuka. Emashumini eminyaka azayo, lokhu kukhuphuka kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu emiphakathini yasogwini, imizi yayo nomhlaba ungase wehle unomphela ngaphansi komugqa ophakeme wamagagasi uma lokhu kuqhubeka.

    Idatha eyengeziwe ivumele ososayensi ukuthi baqonde kangcono abashayeli ababangela ukunyuka kwezinga lolwandle. Umshayeli omkhulu kunawo wonke ukunwebeka okushisayo, lapho ulwandle lufudumala khona, okuholela emanzini olwandle aminyene kancane; lokhu kubangela ukuthi amanzi ande, futhi kanjalo, akhuphule amazinga olwandle. Ukwenyuka kwamazinga okushisa emhlabeni nakho kube nomthelela ekuncibilikiseni izinguzunga zeqhwa emhlabeni wonke futhi kuncibilikisa amaqhwa eGreenland nase-Antarctica.

    Kukhona futhi indawo yokugcina amanzi, lapho ukungenelela komuntu emjikelezweni wamanzi kuholela emanzini amaningi ekugcineni eya olwandle, esikhundleni sokuhlala emhlabathini. Lokhu kunomthelela omkhulu ekukhuphukeni kwamazinga olwandle ngisho nangaphezu kwamaqhwa e-Antarctica ancibilikayo, ngenxa yokuxhashazwa komuntu amanzi angaphansi komhlaba ukuze aniselwe.

    Bonke laba bashayeli babe negalelo ekunyukeni okubonakalayo ngo-3.20mm ngonyaka phakathi kuka-1993-2010. Ososayensi basasebenza kumamodeli abo, kodwa kuze kube manje (kusukela ngo-2021), izibikezelo zifiphele emhlabeni wonke. Ngisho nokuqagela okunethemba elikhulu kusabonisa ukuthi ukuphakama kwezinga lolwandle kuzofinyelela cishe ku-1m ngonyaka ngo-2100.

    Umthelela ophazamisayo

    Abantu abahlala eziqhingini nasezindaweni ezisogwini bazobhekana nethonya elikhulu kakhulu, njengoba kudlula isikhathi ngaphambi kokuba balahlekelwe umhlaba nemizi yabo olwandle. Amanye amazwe aseziqhingini angase anyamalale ebusweni beplanethi. Abantu abangaba yizigidi ezingu-300 bangaphila ngaphansi kwezinga lesikhukhula sonyaka ngo-2050.

    Ziningi izimpendulo ezingenzeka kuleli kusasa. Enye inketho ukuthuthela endaweni ephakeme, uma ikhona, kodwa lokho kuthwala izingozi zakho. Izivikelo zasogwini, njengezindonga zolwandle, zingase zivikele izindawo ezikhona eziphansi, kodwa lokhu kuthatha isikhathi nemali ukuze kwakhiwe futhi kungase kube sengozini njengoba amazinga olwandle eqhubeka nokukhuphuka.

    Ingqalasizinda, umnotho, nepolitiki konke kuzothinteka, ezindaweni ezisengozini nasezindaweni ezingeke zibone ngisho nesentimitha elilodwa lokuphakama kwezinga lolwandle. Zonke izingxenye zomphakathi zizozwa imiphumela enzima evela ngenxa yezikhukhula zasogwini, noma ngabe imiphumela yezomnotho elula noma ecindezelayo eyengeziwe yokusiza abantu. Ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle kuzoletha inkinga enkulu yobuntu phakathi nesikhathi sokuphila komuntu ovamile namuhla.

    Imithelela yokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle

    Imithelela ebanzi yokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle ingase ihlanganise: 

    • Isidingo esikhulayo sezinsizakalo zezimboni zokwakha noma ukugcina izindonga zasolwandle nezinye izivikelo zasogwini. 
    • Izinkampani zomshwalense zinyusa amanani azo ezakhiwo ezihlala eduze kwezifunda ezisogwini eziphansi kanye nezinye izinkampani ezinjalo eziphuma ngokuphelele kulezo zindawo. 
    • Abantu abahlala ezindaweni ezisengozini enkulu bathuthela kwelinye izwe, okwenza amanani ezindawo ezithengiswayo ezindaweni ezisogwini ehle kanye nezintengo zezakhiwo ezingaphakathi kwezwe.
    • Ukuchitha imali ocwaningweni lwesayensi nengqalasizinda yokulwa nokushisa komhlaba kukhuphuka kakhulu.
    • Izimboni, njengezokuvakasha nezokudoba, ezithembele kakhulu ezifundeni ezisogwini, ezibhekana nokulahlekelwa okukhulu, kuyilapho imikhakha efana neyokwakha kanye neyokulima emaphakathi nezwe ingabona ukukhula ngenxa yesidingo sengqalasizinda entsha nokukhiqizwa kokudla.
    • Iphuzu elibalulekile ekwenziweni kwenqubomgomo kanye nobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe, njengoba amazwe ebhekene nezinselelo zokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, amasu okuzivumelanisa nezimo, kanye namandla okufuduka okubangelwa isimo sezulu.
    • Ukuthuthukiswa nokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe bokumelana nezikhukhula kanye nokuphathwa kwamanzi, okuholela ekushintsheni ekugxilweni kwemizamo yocwaningo lwesayensi nentuthuko.
    • Ukwehla kwemisebenzi yasogwini kanye nokwenyuka kwemisebenzi ehlobene nokuthuthukiswa kwezwe, ukunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kanye nemizamo yokuzivumelanisa nezimo.
    • Ukulahlekelwa kwemvelo yasogwini kanye nezinhlobonhlobo zezinto eziphilayo, kuyilapho kwakhiwa izindawo ezintsha zasemanzini, kushintsha ukulingana kwezilwane zasolwandle futhi okungase kuholele ekuveleni kwezindawo ezintsha zemvelo.

    Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

    • Yiziphi izinhlobo zezinyathelo okufanele zenziwe ukuze kuhlaliswe ababaleki abasuswa ezindaweni zabo ngenxa yamazinga olwandle akhuphukayo?
    • Ingabe ukholelwa ukuthi izivikelo zasogwini njengama-dikes nama-levees zinganele ukuvikela ezinye zezindawo ezisengozini kakhulu ekukhuphukeni kwezinga lolwandle?
    • Ingabe ukholelwa ukuthi izinhlelo zamanje zokunciphisa ukungcola kanye nokufudumala komhlaba okuhamba kancane zanele ukunciphisa izinga lokukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle?