Amatekisi asemkhathini: Ukuhamba kancane kwentando yeningi emkhathini?

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• April 8, 2022

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Ukuqala kokuhamba emkhathini kwezentengiselwano, okuphawulwa izinkampani ezizimele zasemkhathini ezethula amalungu ezisebenzi ezivamile, kuye kwavula iminyango yemakethe entsha kanokusho kanye nethuba lokuhlala isikhathi eside enyangeni naseMars. Lo mkhuba ungalungisa kabusha izici ezihlukahlukene zomphakathi, kusukela ekudaleni amathuba ezinsizakalo ezisezingeni eliphezulu kuye ekubekeni izinselele ekungalinganini kwezenhlalo, ukusimama kwendawo ezungezile, inkimbinkimbi yezomthetho, kanye namandla okusebenza. Imithelela yamatekisi asemkhathini idlulela ngalé kwezokuvakasha, okuba nomthelela wokubambisana kwamazwe ngamazwe, izinhlaka zokuphatha, intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe, kanye nokushintshashintsha kwabantu.

Umongo wetekisi lasemkhathini

Ngo-2021, izinkampani zasemkhathini ezizimele ezifana ne-Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, kanye ne-SpaceX zonke zaqala izindiza zezentengiselwano ezihlanganisa amalungu ezisebenzi. Ikakhulukazi, ngoSepthemba 2021 i-SpaceX yabona i-SpaceX yethula i-Inspiration4, i-rocket ye-SpaceX eyayithwele izisebenzi zasemkhathini. Irokhethi yasuka eKennedy Space Center eFlorida e-US futhi yachitha izinsuku ezintathu ku-orbit ngaphambi kokuhlala. Lezi yizinsuku zokuqala zokuhamba emkhathini wezakhamuzi.

Abasebenzi ababegibele irokhethi ye-Inspiration4 bahlolwe bezokwelapha futhi bachitha izinyanga eziyisithupha beziqeqeshela ukulingisa kanye namagumbi adonsela phansi ayiziro, okuhlanganisa nokuqeqeshwa ngaphakathi kwecapsule ye-SpaceX Dragon. Ukwethulwa kwathwala abantu kanye nempahla yesayensi ngezinjongo zocwaningo ngesikhathi esifanayo kuqoqwa imali yesibhedlela socwaningo. Ngaphandle kwalezi zici, lokhu kundiza kwe-orbital bekuhluke ngempela ekunqamuleni izithiyo ezimbalwa.   

Ngaleso sikhathi, iningi labasebenzi bezindiza ze-Blue Origin kanye ne-Virgin Galactic babedinga ukuqeqeshwa okuncane kakhulu njengoba zombili lezo zindiza zithathe isikhathi esingaphansi kwehora iyinye. Ukuvakasha kwasemkhathini kwesikhathi esizayo kanye nokuhamba emkhathini kwezakhamuzi cishe kuzofana nalezi zinhlobo zakamuva zezindiza, kokubili ngokwesikhathi nezidingo zokuqeqeshwa kwabagibeli. Njengoba amamethrikhi okuphepha alezi zindiza zamarokhethi efakazelwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lolu hlobo lokuhamba luzothola ukudlondlobala kokuduma okuzofakazela ukusebenza kahle kwezomnotho kwezindiza zasemkhathini futhi kuxhaswe ukuthuthukiswa kwazo esikhathini eside.

Umthelela ophazamisayo

I-SpaceX's Inspiration4 izungeza ngamamayela angu-360 ngaphezu komhlaba, ngamamayela angu-100 ukuphakama kune-International Space Station, ezungeza ngamamayela angu-250 futhi idlule amabanga azungezwe izinhlelo zokuqalisa ezihambisana nazo ezifana ne-Virgin Galactic (50 miles) kanye neBlue Origin (66 miles). Impumelelo yokwethulwa kwe-SpaceX's Inspiration4 ibe nomthelela kwezinye izinkampani ezizimele ze-aerospace ukuthi zihlele uhambo oluya e-International Space Station ngasekupheleni kuka-2022, kuyilapho abanye osozigidi behlela ukuyisa abaculi abakhethiwe enyangeni ngo-2023.

I-SpaceX yasungulwa ngesikhathi esifanayo nangenkathi i-NASA iqala ukucabangela amathuba okuhamba emkhathini wezohwebo. Ngawo-2010, i-NASA yatshala ama-USD ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-6 ezinkampanini ezizimele ukuze kuthuthukiswe ubuchwepheshe basemkhathini, kuthuthukiswe imboni yasemkhathini, futhi ekugcineni yenze abantu bansuku zonke bakwazi ukufinyelela emkhathini. Ngasekuqaleni kwawo-2020 wabona lokhu kutshalwa kwezimali kukhokha izinzuzo njengoba izinkampani zasemkhathini zase-US zabonakala ziphumelela ekwehliseni ngendlela emangalisayo izindleko zokwethulwa kwamarokhethi, ngaleyo ndlela zenza umnotho wohlu lwezinto ezintsha eziqanjiwe zasemkhathini zifinyeleleke ekuqalisweni komkhathi okusha.

Futhi ngeminyaka yawo-2030s, yonke imvelo yeziqalo nezimboni ezihlobene nesikhala zizovela ezisekelweni zokuqalisa ezingabizi kakhulu ezigqugquzelwa yilaba basunguli bakuqala bendawo yangasese. Kodwa-ke, izimo zokusetshenziswa zangaphambi kwesikhathi nezisobala zibandakanya uhambo lwezokuvakasha lwasemkhathini oluzungeza Umhlaba, kanye nohambo lwerokhethi olusuka endaweni ukuya kwelinye olungathutha abantu noma kuphi emhlabeni ngaphansi kwehora.

Imithelela yamatekisi asemkhathini

Imithelela ebanzi yamatekisi asemkhathini ingafaka: 

• Izindiza zokuvakasha zasemkhathini zangaphambi kwesikhathi ngamathikithi abiza kufika ku-USD $500,000 kanye nezindali zezihlalo ezifika ku-USD $28 wezigidi, okuholela emakethe entsha kanokusho ebhekelela abacebile kuphela, edala amathuba ezinkonzo ezisezingeni eliphezulu nolwazi.
• Ukuhlala isikhathi eside kwenyanga ne-Mars, okuholela ekusungulweni kwemiphakathi emisha nemiphakathi ezodinga ukubusa, ingqalasizinda, nezinhlelo zezenhlalakahle.
• Izinkampani zakuqala zamarokhethi asemkhathini zishintshela ezinsizakalweni zezokuthutha noma izinkundla zezinkampani ezikhula njalo ze-niche space ezifuna ukuthutha impahla yazo emkhathini, okuholela ekwakhiweni kwamamodeli ebhizinisi amasha kanye nokusebenzisana okuzothuthukisa ukukhula embonini yasemkhathini.
• Ukudayiswa kohambo lwasemkhathini okuhlala kunomnotho kuphela kubantu abaphezulu amashumi eminyaka ambalwa, okuholela ekungalinganini kwezenhlalo kanye neziyaluyalu ezingase zibe khona njengoba ezokuvakasha zasemkhathini ziba uphawu lokungafani kwezomnotho.
• Ukwanda kwesidingo sokuhamba emkhathini kanye nokuhlaliswa kwesikhathi eside kwamanye amaplanethi, okuholela ezinseleleni zemvelo ezingaba khona eMhlabeni, njengokwenyuka kokusetshenziswa kwamandla kanye nokukhiqizwa kwemfucuza, okudinga imithetho emisha nezinqubo ezizinzile.
• Ukuthuthukiswa kwezindawo zokuhlala zasemkhathini kanye nokuhamba emkhathini wezohwebo, okuholela ezinseleleni eziyinkimbinkimbi zomthetho nezepolitiki ezizodinga izivumelwano ezintsha zamazwe ngamazwe, imithethonqubo, nezinhlaka zokuphatha ukuze kuphathwe amalungelo nezibopho zezinkanyezi.
• Ukukhula kokuvakasha kwasemkhathini kanye nemisebenzi yezentengiselwano yasemkhathini, okuholela ezindabeni zabasebenzi ezingase zibe khona njengesidingo sokuqeqeshwa okukhethekile, ukususwa kwamathuba emisebenzi ezimbonini zendabuko, nokudalwa kwamathuba emisebenzi emisha emikhakheni ehlobene nendawo.
• Ukwenyuka kwemisebenzi yezentengiselwano emkhathini, okuholela ekushintsheni okungaba khona kwezibalo zabantu njengoba abantu bethuthela ezindaweni ezihlala emkhathini, okungase kube nomthelela ekusabalaleni kwabantu eMhlabeni futhi kudale amandla amasha omphakathi emiphakathini yasemkhathini.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Ukuhamba emkhathini ishibhile namuhla kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi emlandweni. Kodwa-ke, yini okufanele yenziwe ukuze izindiza zasemkhathini zezentengiselwano zifinyeleleke nakakhulu, ikakhulukazi kubantu abaphakathi nendawo nabaphezulu? 
• Uma unganikwa ithuba lokungena emkhathini, ungavuma yini?