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I-WWIII Climate Wars P1: I-2 degrees izoholela kanjani empini yezwe

ISIKWELETU SOMTHETHO: Quantumrun

I-WWIII Climate Wars P1: I-2 degrees izoholela kanjani empini yezwe

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
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(Izixhumanisi zalo lonke uchungechunge lokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu zibalwe ekugcineni kwalesi sihloko.)

Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Yindaba sonke esizwe kakhulu ngayo kule minyaka eyishumi edlule. Kuphinde kube yisihloko iningi lethu elingakaze licabange ngakho empilweni yethu yansuku zonke. Futhi, empeleni, kungani thina? Ngaphandle kobusika obufudumele lapha, izivunguvungu ezinamandla lapho, azizange zithinte izimpilo zethu kangako. Eqinisweni, ngihlala eToronto, eCanada, futhi kulobu busika (2014-15) buye bancipha kakhulu. Ngichithe izinsuku ezimbili nginyakazisa isikibha ngoDisemba!

Kodwa njengoba ngisho lokho, ngiyaqaphela futhi ukuthi ubusika obupholile njengalobu akubona bemvelo. Ngikhule ngineqhwa lasebusika lafika okhalweni. Futhi uma iphethini yeminyaka embalwa edlule iqhubeka, kungase kube khona unyaka lapho ngiba nobusika obungenaqhwa. Nakuba lokho kungase kubonakale kungokwemvelo kumuntu waseCalifornian noma waseBrazil, kimina lokho akukona okwaseCanada.

Kodwa kukhona okungaphezu kwalokho ngokusobala. Okokuqala, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungadida kakhulu, ikakhulukazi kulabo abangawutholi umehluko phakathi kwesimo sezulu nesimo sezulu. Isimo sezulu sichaza ukuthi kwenzekani umzuzu nomzuzu, usuku nosuku. Iphendula imibuzo efana nalena: Ingabe likhona ithuba lemvula kusasa? Mangaki amasentimitha eqhwa esingawalindela? Ingabe likhona igagasi lokushisa elizayo? Empeleni, isimo sezulu sichaza isimo sezulu noma kuphi phakathi kwesikhathi sangempela nezibikezelo ezifika ezinsukwini eziyi-14 (okungukuthi, izikali zesikhathi esifushane). Khonamanjalo, “isimo sezulu” sichaza lokho umuntu alindele ukuba kwenzeke phakathi nenkathi ende yesikhathi; umugqa wokuthambekela; isibikezelo sezulu sesikhathi eside esibukeka (okungenani) iminyaka eyi-15 kuye kwengama-30.

Kodwa inkinga leyo.

Ubani ngempela ocabanga iminyaka eyi-15 kuye kwengama-30 kulezi zinsuku? Eqinisweni, esikhathini esiningi sokuziphendukela kwemvelo komuntu, siye safakwa esimweni sokukhathalela isikhathi esifushane, ukukhohlwa ngomlando okudala, nokunaka indawo esizungezile. Yilokho okwasivumela ukuba siphile phakathi nenkulungwane yeminyaka. Kodwa futhi yingakho ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyinselelo enkulu emphakathini wanamuhla ukubhekana nayo: imiphumela yako emibi kakhulu ngeke isithinte eminye iminyaka engamashumi amabili kuya kwamathathu (uma sinenhlanhla), imiphumela ihamba kancane, kanye nobuhlungu obuzobubangela. izozwakala emhlabeni jikelele.

Ngakho-ke nali udaba lwami: isizathu sokuthi kungani ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzwakala njengesihloko esinjalo sezinga lesithathu yingoba kungabiza kakhulu kulabo abaphethe namuhla ukukusingatha kusasa. Lezo ngwevu ezisezikhundleni ezikhethiwe namuhla cishe zizobe sezifile emashumini amabili kuya kwamathathu eminyaka—azinaso isisusa esikhulu sokunyakazisa isikebhe. Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi-ngaphandle kokubulawa okunyantisayo, uhlobo lwe-CSI-ngisazoba khona emashumini amabili kuya kwamathathu eminyaka. Futhi kuzobiza isizukulwane sami okuningi kakhulu ukuqondisa umkhumbi wethu kude nempophoma ama-boomers asiholela kulokho ngasekupheleni komdlalo. Lokhu kusho ukuthi impilo yami yesikhathi esizayo empunga ingase ibize kakhulu, ibe namathuba amancane, futhi ngingajabuli kakhulu kunezizukulwane ezedlule. Kuyavunguza lokho.

Ngakho-ke, njenganoma yimuphi umbhali okhathalela imvelo, ngizobhala ngokuthi kungani ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kubi. …Ngiyazi ukuthi ucabangani kodwa ungakhathazeki. Lokhu kuzohluka.

Lolu chungechunge lwezihloko luzochaza ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kumongo wezwe langempela. Yebo, uzofunda izindaba zakamuva ezichaza ukuthi imayelana nani, kodwa uzofunda nokuthi zizozithinta kanjani izingxenye ezihlukene zomhlaba ngendlela ehlukile. Uzofunda ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungayithinta kanjani impilo yakho mathupha, kodwa uzofunda futhi ukuthi kungaholela kanjani empini yomhlaba ezayo uma inganakwa isikhathi eside. Futhi ekugcineni, uzofunda izinto ezinkulu nezincane ongazenza ukuze wenze umehluko.

Kodwa kulolu chungechunge oluvulayo, ake siqale ngezinto eziyisisekelo.

Kuyini ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu ngempela?

Incazelo ejwayelekile (ye-Googled) yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu esizobhekisela kuyo kulo lonke lolu chungechunge ithi: ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu somhlaba wonke noma sesifunda ngenxa yokufudumala kwembulunga yonke–ukwanda kancane kancane kwezinga lokushisa eliphelele lomkhathi womhlaba. Lokhu ngokuvamile kubangelwa umphumela we-greenhouse obangelwa amazinga engeziwe e-carbon dioxide, i-methane, i-chlorofluorocarbons, nezinye izinto ezingcolile, ezikhiqizwa imvelo kanye nabantu ikakhulukazi.

Eesh. Kwaba umlomo. Kodwa ngeke sikuguqule lokhu kube ikilasi lesayensi. Into ebalulekile okufanele siyazi “i-carbon dioxide, i-methane, i-chlorofluorocarbon, nezinye izinto ezingcolisa umoya” okuhlelelwe ukucekela phansi ikusasa lethu ngokuvamile zivela emithonjeni elandelayo: uwoyela, igesi namalahle asetshenziselwa ukubasa yonke into emhlabeni wethu wanamuhla; ikhiphe i-methane evela ku-permafrost encibilikayo e-arctic nolwandle olufudumalayo; kanye nokuqhuma okukhulu okuvela ezintaba-mlilo. Kusukela ngo-2015, singakwazi ukulawula umthombo owodwa futhi ngokungaqondile silawule umthombo wesibili.

Enye into okufanele siyazi ukuthi lezi zinto ezingcolisa umoya zigcwala kakhulu emkhathini wethu, lapho iplanethi yethu izoshisa kakhulu. Pho simi kuphi nalokho?

Iningi lezinhlangano zamazwe omhlaba ezinomthwalo wemfanelo wokuhlela umzamo womhlaba wonke mayelana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ziyavuma ukuthi ngeke sivumele ukuhlangana kwamagesi abamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini wethu ukuthi akhe ngaphezu kwezingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi (ppm). Khumbula ukuthi inombolo engu-450 ngenxa yokuthi ilingana noma ngaphansi kwezinga lokushisa elilingana namadigri amabili e-Celsius ekhuphukayo esimweni sethu sezulu—iyaziwa nangokuthi “umkhawulo wama-degree angu-2-Celsius.”

Kungani lowo mkhawulo ubalulekile? Ngoba uma siyidlulisa, impendulo yemvelo (okuchazwe kamuva) endaweni yethu izokhula ngesivinini esingaphezu kwamandla ethu, okusho ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoba kubi kakhulu, ngokushesha, okungenzeka kuholele emhlabeni lapho sonke siphila ezweni. Mad Max imuvi. Siyakwamukela ku-Thunderdome!

Ngakho-ke ingakanani ukugxiliswa kwe-GHG yamanje (ikakhulukazi i-carbon dioxide)? Ngokusho kwe Isikhungo Sokuhlaziya Ulwazi Lwe-Carbon Dioxide, kusukela ngoFebhruwari 2014, ukugxilisa ingqondo ezingxenyeni ngesigidi kwaba … 395.4. Eesh. (O, futhi ngokomongo nje, ngaphambi kwenguquko yezimboni, inombolo ibingu-280ppm.)

Kulungile, ngakho-ke asikho kude kangako nomkhawulo. Ingabe kufanele sithuke? Hhayi-ke, lokho kuya ngokuthi uhlala kuphi eMhlabeni.

Kungani amadigri amabili eyinto enkulu kangaka?

Komunye umongo ngokusobala ongewona owesayensi, yazi ukuthi izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile lomzimba womuntu omdala licishe libe ngu-99°F (37°C). Unomkhuhlane lapho izinga lokushisa lomzimba wakho likhuphuka lifika ku-101-103°F—lowo umehluko wamadigri amabili kuya kwamane kuphela.

Kodwa kungani izinga lokushisa lethu lenyuka nhlobo? Ukushisa izifo, njengamabhaktheriya noma amagciwane, emizimbeni yethu. Kunjalo nangoMhlaba wethu. Inkinga ukuthi, uma kushisa, THINA isifo esizama ukusibulala.

Ake sikubhekisise lokho osopolitiki bakho abangakutsheli kona.

Lapho osopolitiki nezinhlangano zezemvelo bekhuluma ngomkhawulo ongu-2-degrees-Celsius, abangakusho ukuthi isilinganiso—akushisi ngamadigri amabili yonke indawo ngokulinganayo. Izinga lokushisa ezilwandlekazini zoMhlaba livame ukubanda kunasemhlabeni, ngakho-ke ama-degree amabili angase abe ngaphezu kuka-1.3 degrees. Kodwa izinga lokushisa liya lishisa kakhulu lapho uqhubeka ungena ezweni futhi ushisa kakhulu ezindaweni eziphakeme lapho izigxobo zikhona—lapho izinga lokushisa lingafinyelela kumadigri amane noma amahlanu ngokushisa. Lelo phuzu lokugcina limunca okubi kakhulu, ngoba uma kushisa kakhulu e-arctic noma e-Antarctic, lonke lelo qhwa lizoncibilika ngokushesha okukhulu, okuholela ku-loops yempendulo eyesabekayo (futhi, echazwe kamuva).

Pho yini ngempela engenzeka uma isimo sezulu sishisa kakhulu?

Izimpi zamanzi

Okokuqala, yazi ukuthi nge-degree Celsius eyodwa yokufudumala kwesimo sezulu, inani eliphelele lokuhwamuka likhuphuka cishe ngamaphesenti ayi-15. Lawo manzi engeziwe emkhathini aholela engcupheni eyengeziwe “yemicimbi yamanzi,” njengeziphepho zezinga le-Katrina ezinyangeni zasehlobo noma iziphepho zeqhwa ebusika obujulile.

Ukufudumala okwandayo kuholela nasekuncibilikeni ngokushesha kwezinguzunga zeqhwa e-arctic. Lokhu kusho ukwanda kwezinga lolwandle, kokubili ngenxa yomthamo wamanzi olwandle ophakeme futhi ngenxa yokuthi amanzi anda emanzini afudumele. Lokhu kungaholela ezigamekweni ezinkulu nezivamile zezikhukhula nama-tsunami ahlasela amadolobha asogwini emhlabeni jikelele. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, amadolobha angamachweba aphansi kanye nezizwe eziyiziqhingi zisengozini yokunyamalala ngokuphelele ngaphansi kolwandle.

Futhi, amanzi ahlanzekile azoba yinto maduze. Amanzi ahlanzekile (amanzi esiwaphuzayo, esigeza kuwo, nesinisela ngawo izitshalo zethu) akukhulunywa kakhulu ngawo kwabezindaba, kodwa lindela ukuthi lokho kuzoshintsha emashumini amabili eminyaka azayo, ikakhulukazi njengoba aya entuleka kakhulu.

Uyabona, njengoba umhlaba ufudumala, izinguzunga zeqhwa ezisezintabeni zizoncipha kancane noma zinyamalale. Lokhu kubalulekile ngoba imifula eminingi (imithombo yethu eyinhloko yamanzi ahlanzekile) umhlaba wethu oncike kuyo ivela emanzini asezintabeni. Futhi uma imifula eminingi yomhlaba ishwabana noma yome ngokuphelele, ungavalelisa emandleni amaningi okulima emhlabeni. Lokho kungaba yizindaba ezimbi kwabakwa abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye kulindeleke ukuthi ibe khona ngo-2040. Futhi njengoba ubonile ku-CNN, i-BBC noma i-Al Jazeera, abantu abalambile bavame ukuphelelwa yithemba futhi bangabi nangqondo uma kuziwa ekusindeni kwabo. Abantu abalambile abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye ngeke kube isimo esihle.

Okuhlobene namaphuzu angenhla, ungase ucabange ukuthi uma amanzi engeziwe ehwamuka olwandle nasezintabeni, ngeke yini ibe nemvula eningi enisela amapulazi ethu? Yebo, ngokuqinisekile. Kodwa isimo sezulu esifudumele siphinde sisho ukuthi inhlabathi yethu esilinywa kakhulu nayo izobhekana namazinga aphezulu okuhwamuka, okusho ukuthi izinzuzo zokuna kwemvula enkulu zizoqedwa ngenxa yezinga elisheshayo lokuhwamuka kwenhlabathi ezindaweni eziningi emhlabeni jikelele.

Kulungile, kwakungamanzi lawo. Manje ake sikhulume ngokudla sisebenzisa isihlokwana sesihloko esikhulu kakhulu.

Izimpi zokudla!

Uma kuziwa ezitshalweni nasezilwaneni esizidlayo, imithombo yezindaba yethu ivame ukugxila endleleni ekwenziwa ngayo, kubiza malini, noma ukuthi ilungiswa kanjani ngena esiswini sakho. Nokho, akuvamile ukuthi abezindaba bethu bakhulume ngokutholakala kwangempela kokudla. Kubantu abaningi, lokho kuyinkinga yomhlaba wesithathu.

Nokho, njengoba umhlaba ufudumala, ikhono lethu lokukhiqiza ukudla lizoba sengcupheni enkulu. Ukwenyuka kwezinga lokushisa kwedigri elilodwa noma amabili ngeke kulimaze kakhulu, sizovele sishintshe ukukhiqizwa kokudla siye emazweni asezindaweni eziphakeme, njengeCanada neRussia. Kodwa ngokusho kukaWilliam Cline, isikhulu esiphezulu e-Peterson Institute for International Economics, ukunyuka kwama-degree Celsius amabili kuya kwamane kungaholela ekulahlekeni kokuvunwa kokudla ngo-20-25 wamaphesenti e-Afrika naseLatin America, kanye nama-30 isenti noma ngaphezulu eNdiya.

Enye inkinga ukuthi, ngokungafani nesikhathi esidlule, ukulima kwesimanje kuvame ukuthembela ezinhlobonhlobo zezitshalo ezimbalwa ukuze zikhule esikalini sezimboni. Sikhulise izitshalo zasekhaya, phakathi kwezinkulungwane zeminyaka zokuzalanisa ngesandla noma inqwaba yeminyaka yokukhohliswa kofuzo, ezingachuma kuphela uma izinga lokushisa lilungile i-Goldilocks.

Ngokwesibonelo, izifundo eziqhutshwa yi-University of Reading ezinhlotsheni ezimbili zerayisi ezitshalwa kakhulu, i-lowland indica futhi i-upland japonica, bathole ukuthi bobabili basengozini kakhulu emazingeni okushisa aphezulu. Ngokukhethekile, uma amazinga okushisa edlula ama-degree angu-35 ngesikhathi sokuqhakaza, izitshalo zizoba yinyumba, zinikeze okusanhlamvu okumbalwa, uma kukhona. Amazwe amaningi asezindaweni ezishisayo nase-Asia lapho irayisi liwukudla okuyisisekelo okuyinhloko kakade esemaphethelweni ale ndawo yokushisa ye-Goldilocks, ngakho noma yikuphi ukufudumala okwengeziwe kungase kusho inhlekelele. (Funda kabanzi esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokudla uchungechunge.)

Izihibe zempendulo: Ekugcineni kuchazwe

Ngakho-ke izinkinga zokuntuleka kwamanzi ahlanzekile, ukuntuleka kokudla, ukwanda kwezinhlekelele zemvelo, nokushabalala kwezitshalo nezilwane eziningi yilokho bonke laba sosayensi abakhathazeke ngakho. Kodwa noma kunjalo, uthi, okubi kakhulu kwalezi zinto, njengokuthi, okungenani iminyaka engamashumi amabili kude. Kungani kufanele ngikhathazeke ngakho manje?

Nokho, ososayensi bathi amashumi amabili kuya kwamathathu eminyaka ngokusekelwe ekhonweni lethu lamanje lokukala amathrendi okukhiphayo kawoyela, igesi, namalahle esiwashisa unyaka nonyaka. Senza umsebenzi ongcono wokulandelela lezo zinto manje. Esingakwazi ukukulandelela kalula imithelela yokufudumala evela ezihibeni zempendulo ngokwemvelo.

Izihibe zempendulo, esimweni sokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, inoma yimuphi umjikelezo ngokwemvelo othi kahle (usheshisa) noma omubi (wehlise izinga) uthinte izinga lokufudumala emkhathini.

Isibonelo se-negative loop kungaba ukuthi lapho iplanethi yethu ifudumala kakhulu, kulapho amanzi ehwamuka khona emkhathini wethu, nokudala amafu engeziwe abonisa ukukhanya okuvela elangeni, okwehlisa izinga lokushisa elijwayelekile lomhlaba.

Ngeshwa, kunezimpendulo ezinhle kakhulu kunezibi. Nalu uhlu lwezibaluleke kakhulu:

Njengoba umhlaba ufudumala, izingqimba zeqhwa enyakatho naseningizimu ziyoqala ukuncipha, zincibilike. Lokhu kulahlekelwa kusho ukuthi kuzoba neqhwa elimhlophe elibenyezelayo, elineqhwa elizobonisa ukushisa kwelanga emuva emkhathini. (Khumbula ukuthi izigxobo zethu zibonakalisa kufika kumaphesenti angama-70 okushisa kwelanga emuva emkhathini.) Njengoba kuncipha ukushisa okuchezukile, izinga lokuncibilika lizokhula ngokushesha unyaka nonyaka.

Okuhlobene nezinguzunga zeqhwa ezincibilikayo, iqhwa elincibilikayo, inhlabathi osekungamakhulu eminyaka ilokhu ivaleleke ngaphansi kwamazinga okushisa abandayo noma igqitshwe ngaphansi kwezinguzunga zeqhwa. I-tundra ebandayo etholakala enyakatho yeCanada naseSiberia iqukethe inqwaba ye-carbon dioxide evaleleke ne-methane okuthi-uma sekufudunyeziwe-ibuyiselwe emkhathini. I-methane ikakhulukazi imbi kakhulu izikhathi ezingaphezu kuka-20 kune-carbon dioxide futhi ayikwazi ukumuncwa kalula ibuyele emhlabathini ngemva kokuba isikhishiwe.

Okokugcina, izilwandle zethu: zingamasinki ethu amakhulu ekhabhoni (njengama-vacuum cleaner omhlaba amunca ikhabhoni dioxide emkhathini). Njengoba umhlaba ufudumala unyaka nonyaka, amandla olwandle ethu okubamba isikhutha ayancipha, okusho ukuthi izodonsa kancane kancane isikhutha emkhathini. Kungokufanayo nakwamanye amasinki ethu amakhulu ekhabhoni, amahlathi ethu kanye nenhlabathi yethu, amandla awo okudonsa ikhabhoni emkhathini ayancipha lapho umkhathi wethu ungcoliswa kakhulu ngezinto ezifudumeza umzimba.

I-Geopolitics nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungaholela kanjani empini yomhlaba

Ngethemba, lokhu kubuka konke okwenziwe lula kwesimo samanje sezulu sikunikeze ukuqonda okungcono kwezinkinga esibhekene nazo ezingeni lesayensi-y. Into ewukuthi, ukuqonda kangcono isayensi ebangela inkinga akulethi ngaso sonke isikhathi umlayezo ekhaya usezingeni lomzwelo. Ukuze umphakathi uqonde umthelela wokuguquka kwesimo sezulu, kufanele uqonde ukuthi kuzoba nomthelela kanjani ezimpilweni zawo, izimpilo zemindeni yawo, kanye nezwe lawo ngendlela yangempela.

Yingakho lonke lolu chungechunge luzobheka ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoyilungisa kanjani kabusha ezombusazwe, ezomnotho, kanye nezimo zokuphila kwabantu kanye namazwe emhlabeni jikelele, kucatshangwa ukuthi akukho okungaphezu kokukhuluma ngomlomo okuzosetshenziswa ukubhekana nalolu daba. Lolu chungechunge luqanjwe ngokuthi 'I-WWIII: Izimpi Zesimo Sezulu' ngoba ngendlela yangempela, izizwe emhlabeni wonke zizolwela ukusinda kwendlela yazo yokuphila.

Ngezansi kunohlu lwezixhumanisi kulo lonke uchungechunge. Ziqukethe izindaba eziqanjiwe ezibekwe emashumini amabili kuya kwamathathu eminyaka kusukela manje, ezigqamisa ukuthi umhlaba wethu ungase ubukeke kanjani ngolunye usuku nge-lens yabalingiswa abangaba khona ngelinye ilanga. Uma ungekho ezindabeni ezixoxwayo, kukhona futhi izixhumanisi zaleyo mininingwane (ngolimi olulula) imiphumela yezwe yokuguquka kwesimo sezulu njengoba ihlobana nezingxenye ezahlukene zomhlaba. Izixhumanisi ezimbili zokugcina zizochaza konke ohulumeni bomhlaba abangakwenza ukulwa nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu, kanye neziphakamiso ezingajwayelekile mayelana nokuthi yini ongayenza ukulwa nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu empilweni yakho.

Futhi khumbula, yonke into (KONKE) ozoyifunda ingavinjelwa usebenzisa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla nesizukulwane sethu.