Ngemuva kweminyaka yokungasebenzi kwabantu abaningi: Ikusasa Lomsebenzi P7

Eminyakeni eyikhulu edlule cishe amaphesenti angama-70 abantu bakithi ayesebenza emapulazini ukuze akhiqize ukudla okwanele kwezwe. Namuhla, lelo phesenti lingaphansi kwamaphesenti amabili. Siyabonga ngokuza inguquko ye-automation siqhutshwa imishini enamandla kanye nobuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI), ngo-2060, singazithola sesingena ezweni lapho amaphesenti angama-70 emisebenzi yanamuhla ephethwe ngamaphesenti amabili abantu.

Kwabanye benu, lokhu kungase kube umcabango owesabisayo. Wenzani umuntu ngaphandle komsebenzi? Umuntu usinda kanjani? Usebenza kanjani umphakathi? Ake siyihlafune ndawonye leyo mibuzo kulezi zigaba ezilandelayo.

Imizamo yokugcina yokulwa ne-automation

Njengoba inani lemisebenzi liqala ukwehla kakhulu ekuqaleni kwawo-2040, ohulumeni bazozama izindlela ezihlukahlukene zokulungisa ngokushesha ukuzama ukunqanda ukopha.

Ohulumeni abaningi bazotshala imali eningi ezinhlelweni “zokwenza umsebenzi” eziklanyelwe ukudala amathuba emisebenzi nokufukula umnotho, njengalezo ezichazwe ku. isahluko sesine yalolu chungechunge. Ngeshwa, ukusebenza kahle kwalezi zinhlelo kuzoncipha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, kanjalo nenani lamaphrojekthi amakhulu ngokwanele ukuthi adinge ukuhlangana okukhulu kwabasebenzi.

Abanye ohulumeni bangase bazame ukulawula kakhulu noma ukuvimba ngokuqondile ubuchwepheshe obuthile bokubulala imisebenzi kanye nokuqalwa ukuthi kusebenze ngaphakathi kwemingcele yabo. Sesivele sikubona lokhu ngezinkampani ezimelana nazo ezifana ne-Uber ezibhekene nazo njengamanje uma zingena emadolobheni athile nezinyunyana ezinamandla.

Kodwa ekugcineni, ukuvinjelwa okuqondile cishe kuzohlale kwehliswa ezinkantolo. Futhi nakuba ukulawulwa okunzima kungase kubambezele ukuthuthuka kobuchwepheshe, ngeke kubuvimbele unomphela. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ohulumeni abakhawulela ukuqanjwa kabusha ngaphakathi kwemingcele yabo bazozikhubaza bona kuphela ezimakethe zomhlaba ezincintisanayo.

Enye indlela ohulumeni abazozama ngayo ukukhuphula iholo elincane. Inhloso kuzoba ukulwa nokuntenga kwamaholo okuzwakala njengamanje kulezo zimboni ezilungiswa kabusha ngobuchwepheshe. Yize lokhu kuzothuthukisa izinga lempilo yabasebenzi abaqashiwe, ukwenyuka kwezindleko zabasebenzi kuzokhuphula umfutho wamabhizinisi ukuthi atshale imali emshinini oshintshashintshayo, okuqhubekisela phambili ukulahleka kwemisebenzi emikhulu.

Kodwa kunenye inketho esele kohulumeni. Amanye amazwe ayazama nanamuhla.

Ukunciphisa isonto lomsebenzi

Ubude bosuku lwethu lokusebenza nesonto abukaze bubekwe etsheni. Ezinsukwini zethu zokuzingela, sasivame ukuchitha amahora angu-3-5 ngosuku sisebenza, ikakhulukazi ukuzingela ukudla kwethu. Lapho siqala ukwakha amadolobha, ukulima amasimu, nokuthuthukisa imisebenzi ekhethekile, usuku lomsebenzi lwakhula lwaqondana namahora okukhanya kwasemini, ngokuvamile sisebenza izinsuku eziyisikhombisa ngesonto inqobo nje uma isikhathi sokulima sasivuma.

Khona-ke izinto zaba namandla phakathi nenguquko yezimboni lapho kwenzeka ukusebenza unyaka wonke kuze kube sebusuku ngenxa yokukhanyisa kokwenziwa. Ngokuhambisana nokushoda kwezinyunyana kule nkathi kanye nemithetho entekenteke yezabasebenzi, kwakungeyona into engavamile ukusebenza amahora angu-12 kuya kwangu-16, izinsuku eziyisithupha kuya kweziyisikhombisa ngesonto.

Kodwa njengoba imithetho yethu ikhula kanye nobuchwepheshe besivumela ukuthi sikhiqize kakhudlwana, lawo masonto angamahora angama-70 kuye kwangama-80 ehla afinyelela emahoreni angama-60 ngekhulu le-19, abese eqhubeka nesonto elijwayelekile lamahora angama-40 elithi “9-to-5” phakathi kwawo-1940-60s.

Uma kubhekwa lo mlando, kungani kungaba impikiswano engaka ukufushanisa isonto lethu lomsebenzi ngokuqhubekayo? Sesivele sibona ukukhula okukhulu emsebenzini wetoho, i-flextime, kanye ne-telecommuting—yonke imiqondo emisha ngokwayo ekhomba ikusasa lomsebenzi omncane kanye nokulawula okwengeziwe amahora omuntu. Futhi ngokungananazi, uma ubuchwepheshe bungakwazi ukukhiqiza izimpahla eziningi, ezishibhile, ngezisebenzi ezingabantu, ekugcineni, ngeke sidinge sonke isibalo sabantu ukuthi sisebenze.

Kungakho ngasekupheleni kwawo-2030, amazwe amaningi anezimboni azobe esenciphise isonto lawo lomsebenzi lamahora angu-40 laba amahora angu-30 noma angu-20—ikakhulukazi kuncike ekutheni lelo zwe lithuthuke kanjani ngezimboni phakathi nalolu shintsho. Eqinisweni, iSweden isivele izama nge- amahora ayisithupha osuku lokusebenza, ngocwaningo lwangaphambi kwesikhathi oluthola ukuthi abasebenzi banamandla engeziwe nokusebenza okungcono ngamahora ayisithupha okugxilwe kuwo kunayisishiyagalombili.

Kodwa nakuba ukunciphisa isonto lomsebenzi kungase kwenze imisebenzi eyengeziwe itholakale kubantu abaningi, lokhu ngeke kwanele ukuvala igebe lokuqashwa elizayo. Khumbula, ngo-2040, inani labantu emhlabeni lizofinyelela ibhaluni kubantu ABILILIYONI eziyisishiyagalolunye, ikakhulukazi abavela e-Afrika nase-Asia. Lokhu kuthutheleka okukhulu kubasebenzi bomhlaba wonke abazobe befuna imisebenzi njengoba nje umhlaba uzoyidinga kancane kancane.

Nakuba ukuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda nokwenza umnotho wezwekazi lase-Afrika nelase-Asia kube ngesimanje kungase kunikeze lezi zifunda imisebenzi eyanele ukuze zilawule lokhu kuthutheleka kwabasebenzi abasha, amazwe asevele athuthukile/asebekhulile azodinga inketho ehlukile.

Imali Eyisisekelo Eyisisekelo Yomhlaba Wonke kanye nenkathi yenala

Uma ufunda isahluko sokugcina yalolu chungechunge, uyazi ukuthi i-Universal Basic Income (UBI) izobaluleka kangakanani ekusebenzeni okuqhubekayo komphakathi wethu kanye nomnotho wonxiwankulu uwonke.

Lokho okungenzeka sikuchazile leso sahluko ukuthi i-UBI izokwanela yini ukunikeza abamukeli bayo izinga lokuphila lekhwalithi. Cabangela lokhu: 

• Ngo-2040, intengo yezimpahla eziningi ezithengwayo izokwehla ngenxa yokukhiqiza okuzenzakalelayo okukhulayo, ukukhula komnotho wokwabelana (we-Craigslist), kanye nabathengisi abanemali encane enephepha bazodinga ukusebenza ukuze badayisele abantu abaningi abangaqashiwe noma abangaqashiwe ngokugcwele. imakethe.
• Izinsizakalo eziningi zizozwa ingcindezi efanayo yokwehla kumanani azo, ngaphandle kwalezo zinsizakalo ezidinga isici somuntu esisebenzayo: cabanga abaqeqeshi bomuntu siqu, abelaphi bemasaji, abanakekeli, njll.
• Imfundo, cishe kuwo wonke amazinga, izokhululeka—ikakhulukazi umphumela kahulumeni wokusabela kwangaphambi kwesikhathi (2030-2035) emiphumeleni ye-automation enkulu kanye nesidingo sabo sokuqhubeka nokuqeqesha abantu ukuze bathole izinhlobo ezintsha zemisebenzi nemisebenzi. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lemfundo chungechunge.
• Ukusetshenziswa okubanzi kwamaphrinta esikali sokwakha e-3D, ukukhula kwezinto zokwakha eziyinkimbinkimbi ezakhiwe ngaphambilini kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni ezindlini eziningi ezithengekayo, kuzoholela ekwehleni kwentengo yezindlu (irenti). Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lamadolobha chungechunge.
• Izindleko zokunakekelwa kwezempilo zizokwehla ngenxa yezinguquko eziqhutshwa ubuchwepheshe ekulandeleleni impilo okuqhubekayo, imithi yomuntu siqu (ukunemba), kanye nokunakekelwa kwezempilo okunqanda isikhathi eside. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lempilo chungechunge.
• Ngo-2040, amandla avuselelekayo azodla ngaphezu kwesigamu sezidingo zikagesi zomhlaba, ehlise kakhulu izikweletu zezinsiza kumthengi ojwayelekile. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lamandla chungechunge.
• Inkathi yezimoto eziphethwe ngabanye izophetha ngokuvuna izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ngokugcwele, ezizishayelayo eziqhutshwa izinkampani ezithengisa izimoto kanye nezinkampani zamatekisi—lokhu kuzokonga ababengabanikazi bezimoto isilinganiso sama-$9,000 ngonyaka. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lezokuthutha chungechunge.
• Ukukhuphuka kwe-GMO nezinto ezithatha indawo yokudla kuzokwehlisa izindleko zokudla okuyisisekelo kubantu abaningi. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lokudla chungechunge.
• Okokugcina, ukuzijabulisa okuningi kuzolethwa ngentengo ephansi noma mahhala kusetshenziswa amadivayisi wokubonisa anikwe amandla iwebhu, ikakhulukazi nge-VR ne-AR. Funda okwengeziwe esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa le-inthanethi chungechunge.

Noma ngabe izinto esizithengayo, ukudla esikudlayo, noma uphahla phezu kwamakhanda ethu, izinto ezibalulekile umuntu ojwayelekile azozidinga ukuze aphile zizokwehla ngentengo emhlabeni wethu wesikhathi esizayo onikwe amandla ezobuchwepheshe, umhlaba ozishintshayo. Kungakho i-UBI yonyaka ngisho nama- $24,000 ingaba namandla okuthenga afanayo njengeholo lika-$50-60,000 ngo-2015.

Uma kubhekwa zonke lezi zimo ezihlanganayo (ne-UBI ephonswe engxubeni), kulungile ukusho ukuthi ngo-2040-2050, umuntu ovamile ngeke esakhathazeka ngokudinga umsebenzi ukuze aphile, futhi umnotho ngeke ukhathazeke ngakho. ukungabi nabathengi abenele ukuze basebenze. Kuyoba ukuqala kwenkathi yenala. Futhi nokho, kufanele kube okungaphezu kwalokho, akunjalo?

Siyoyithola kanjani incazelo ezweni elingenamisebenzi?

Okuza ngemuva kwe-automation

Kuze kube manje ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lomsebenzi, sixoxile ngezinkambiso ezizoqhubeza ukuqashwa kwabantu abaningi ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yawo-2030 kuya ekuqaleni kwawo-2040, kanye nezinhlobo zemisebenzi ezizosinda ngokuzenzakalelayo. Kodwa kuzofika isikhathi phakathi kuka-2040 no-2060, lapho izinga lokucekelwa phansi kwemisebenzi ye-automation lizohamba kancane, lapho imisebenzi engabulawa yi-automation ekugcineni inyamalala, nalapho imisebenzi embalwa yendabuko esele isebenzisa kuphela abagqame kakhulu, abanesibindi noma abaningi. exhumene abambalwa.

Bonke abanye abantu bazozixakekisa kanjani?

Umbono ophambili ochwepheshe abaningi abadonsela ukunaka kuwo ukukhula kwekusasa kwemiphakathi yomphakathi, okuvame ukubonakala izinhlangano ezingenzi nzuzo kanye nezinhlangano ezingekho ngaphansi kukahulumeni (NGOs). Injongo eyinhloko yalo mkhakha iwukudala izibopho zomphakathi ngokusebenzisa izikhungo ezihlukahlukene nemisebenzi esiyithanda kakhulu, okuhlanganisa: izinkonzo zezenhlalakahle, izinhlangano zezenkolo namasiko, ezemidlalo neminye imisebenzi yokuzijabulisa, imfundo, ukunakekelwa kwezempilo, izinhlangano zokumela, njll.

Nakuba abaningi behlisa umthelela wezinhlangano zomphakathi njengomncane uma uqhathaniswa nohulumeni noma umnotho wonkana, a Ukuhlaziywa komnotho ka-2010 okwenziwe yi-Johns Hopkins Centre for Civil Society Studies ukuhlola amazwe angaphezu kwamashumi amane kubike ukuthi umphakathi:

• Ibalelwa ku-$2.2 trillion ezindlekweni zokusebenza. Emazweni amaningi anezimboni, izinhlangano zomphakathi zenza cishe amaphesenti amahlanu e-GDP.
• Iqasha abasebenzi abalingana ngokugcwele nabasebenza ngokugcwele abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-56 emhlabeni jikelele, cishe amaphesenti ayisithupha abantu abaneminyaka yobudala esebenzayo kulawo mazwe ahlolwayo.
• Iwumkhakha okhula ngokushesha kakhulu kulo lonke elaseYurophu, omele ngaphezu kwamaphesenti ayishumi omsebenzi emazweni afana neBelgium, iNetherlands, iFrance, ne-UK. Ngaphezu kwamaphesenti ayisishiyagalolunye e-US kanye ne-10 eCanada.

Njengamanje, ungase ucabange, 'Lokhu kuzwakala kumnandi, kodwa umphakathi awukwazi ukuqasha wonke umuntu. Futhi, akuwona wonke umuntu ozofuna ukusebenzela inhlangano engenzi nzuzo.'

Futhi kuzo zombili izici, uzobe ulungile. Yingakho kubalulekile futhi ukucabangela esinye isici sale ngxoxo.

Ukushintsha inhloso yomsebenzi

Kulezi zinsuku, esikubheka njengomsebenzi yinoma yini esikhokhelwa ukuyenza. Kodwa esikhathini esizayo lapho okuzenzakalelayo kwemishini nedijithali kungahlinzeka ngezidingo zethu eziningi, okuhlanganisa ne-UBI ukuze sizikhokhele, lo mqondo awusadingeki usebenze.

Eqinisweni, a Umsebenzi yilokho esikwenzayo ukuze senze imali esiyidingayo ukuze siphile futhi (kwezinye izimo) ukusinxephezela ngokwenza imisebenzi esingayithandi. Umsebenzi wona awuhlangene nemali; yilokho esikwenzayo ukusebenzela izidingo zethu zomuntu siqu, kungaba ngokomzimba, ngokwengqondo, noma ngokomoya. Uma kubhekwa lo mehluko, nakuba singase singene esikhathini esizayo esinemisebenzi engaphansi isiyonke, ngeke singene naphakade ngena ezweni elinomsebenzi omncane.

Umphakathi kanye nohlelo olusha lwabasebenzi

Kulo mhlaba wesikhathi esizayo lapho umsebenzi womuntu uhlukaniswa nenzuzo yokukhiqiza nengcebo yomphakathi, sizokwazi:

• Ubuhlakani bamahhala bomuntu namandla ngokuvumela abantu abanemibono emisha yobuciko noma ucwaningo lwamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane noma imibono yokuqala isikhathi nenethi yokuphepha kwezezimali ukuze baphishekele izifiso zabo.
• Phishekela umsebenzi obalulekile kithi, kungaba kwezobuciko nokuzijabulisa, ezamabhizinisi, ucwaningo, noma isevisi yomphakathi. Njengoba isisusa senzuzo sinciphile, noma yiluphi uhlobo lomsebenzi owenziwa abantu abanothando lomsebenzi wabo wezandla luzobhekwa ngokulinganayo.
• Qaphela, unxephezele, futhi wazise umsebenzi ongakhokhelwa emphakathini wethu, njengokukhulisa izingane kanye nokunakekelwa kwabagula ekhaya kanye nabadala.
• Chitha isikhathi esiningi nabangane nomndeni, ulinganisela kangcono izimpilo zethu zomphakathi nezifiso zethu zomsebenzi.
• Gxila emisebenzini yokwakha umphakathi kanye nezinhlelo, okuhlanganisa ukukhula komnotho ongakahleleki ohlobene nokwabelana, ukuphana izipho, nokuhwebelana.

Nakuba inani eliphelele lemisebenzi lingase lehle, kanye nenani lamahora esiwanikela kuwo ngesonto, kuyohlale kunomsebenzi owanele ozothatha wonke umuntu.

Ukucinga incazelo

Le nkathi entsha, echichimayo esingena kuyo yileyo ezogcina ibone ukuphela kwezisebenzi eziholelwa abantu abaningi, njengoba nje inkathi yezimboni yabona ukuphela kokugqilazwa kwabantu abaningi. Kuyoba inkathi lapho icala lamaPuritan lokuzibonakalise ngokuzikhandla kanye nokuqongelela ingcebo liyothathelwa indawo izimiso zokuziphatha zobuntu zokuzithuthukisa futhi zibe nomthelela emphakathini womuntu.

Kukho konke, ngeke sisachazwa yimisebenzi yethu, kodwa ngendlela esiyithola ngayo injongo ekuphileni kwethu. 

Ikusasa lochungechunge lomsebenzi

Ukusinda Endaweni Yakho Yokusebenzela Yekusasa: Ikusasa Lomsebenzi P1

Ukufa Komsebenzi Wesikhathi Esigcwele: Ikusasa Lomsebenzi P2

Imisebenzi Eyosinda I-Automation: Ikusasa Lomsebenzi P3   

Izimboni Zokugcina Zokudala Umsebenzi: Ikusasa Lomsebenzi P4

I-Automation Ukukhishwa Okusha: Ikusasa Lomsebenzi P5

Iholo Lomhlaba Wonke Eliyisisekelo Lilapha Ukungasebenzi Okuningi: Ikusasa Lomsebenzi P6