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Ukwahlulela okuzenzakalelayo kwezigebengu: Ikusasa lomthetho P3

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

Msombuluko, 09/14/2020 - 11:02

Kunezinkulungwane zamacala emhlabeni wonke, minyaka yonke, amajaji akhipha izinqumo zenkantolo ezingabazekayo, ukusho okuncane. Ngisho namajaji angabantu angcono kakhulu angabhekana nezinhlobo ezihlukahlukene zokucwasa nokuchema, zokungabhekelwa kahle namaphutha ngenxa yokuzabalaza ukuhlala ekhona nesimiso sezomthetho esithuthuka ngokushesha, kuyilapho okubi kakhulu konakaliswa ukufunjathiswa nokufunjathiswa. ezinye izikimu zokufuna inzuzo ezinemininingwane.

Ingabe ikhona indlela yokugwema lokhu kuhluleka? Ukusungula uhlelo lwezinkantolo olungenayo inkohlakalo? Ngokombono, okungenani, abanye banomuzwa wokuthi amajaji amarobhothi angenza izinkantolo ezingachemi zibe ngokoqobo. Eqinisweni, umbono wesistimu yokwahlulela ezenzakalelayo usuqala ukudingidwa ngokungathi sína ngabasunguli bezinto ezintsha kuwo wonke umhlaba wezomthetho nobuchwepheshe.

Amajaji wamarobhothi ayingxenye yomkhuba wokuzenzakalela ongena kancane kancane cishe kuzo zonke izigaba zesistimu yethu yezomthetho. Isibonelo, ake sibheke ngokushesha umsebenzi wamaphoyisa.

Ukugcinwa komthetho okuzenzakalelayo

Sikhava umsebenzi wamaphoyisa ozenzakalelayo ngokugcwele kuhlelo lwethu Ikusasa Lamaphoyisa uchungechunge, kodwa kulesi sahluko, sicabange ukuthi kungaba usizo ukusampula ubuchwepheshe obumbalwa obuvelayo obusethwe ukuze kwenziwe ukuphoqelelwa komthetho okuzenzakalelayo kwenzeke eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo:

Ukubhekwa kwevidiyo yedolobha lonkece. Lobu buchwepheshe sebuvele busetshenziswa kabanzi emadolobheni emhlabeni jikelele, ikakhulukazi e-UK. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukwehla kwezindleko zamakhamera evidiyo anencazelo ephezulu ahlala isikhathi eside, ahlukene, amelana nesimo sezulu futhi anikwe amandla kuwebhu, kusho ukuthi ukusabalala kwamakhamera okuqapha emigwaqweni yethu nasezakhiwo zomphakathi nezizimele kuzokhula ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Kuzovela futhi amazinga amasha kanye nemithetho yedolobha ezovumela izikhungo zamaphoyisa ukuthi zifinyelele kalula izithombe zekhamera ezithathwe endaweni yangasese.

Ukuqashelwa kobuso okuthuthukisiwe. Ubuchwepheshe obuhambisanayo kumakhamera e-CCTV edolobha lonke isofthiwe ehlonishwayo yobuso ethuthukisiwe ethuthukiswayo njengamanje emhlabeni jikelele, ikakhulukazi e-US, Russia, nase-China. Lobu buchwepheshe maduzane buzovumela ukukhonjwa kwesikhathi sangempela kwabantu abathwetshulwe ngamakhamera—isici esizokwenza kube lula ukuxazululwa kwabantu abalahlekile, ababaleki, kanye nezinhlelo zokulandelela umsolwa.

I-Artificial intelligence (AI) nedatha enkulu. Ukuhlanganisa lobu buchwepheshe obubili ndawonye i-AI inikwa amandla idatha enkulu. Kulokhu, idatha enkulu izoba inani elikhulayo levidiyo ye-CCTV ebukhoma, ehambisana nesofthiwe yokuqaphela ubuso ehlala ihlanganisa ubuso balabo abatholakala esithombeni se-CCTV esishiwo.

Lapha i-AI izokwengeza inani ngokuhlaziya okuqoshiwe, ukubona ukuziphatha okusolisayo noma ukuhlonza abahlukumezi abaziwayo, bese ibeka ngokuzenzakalelayo amaphoyisa endaweni ukuze aphenye kabanzi. Ekugcineni, lobu buchwepheshe buzolandelela ngokuzenzakalelayo umsolwa ukusuka kolunye uhlangothi lwedolobha kuye kolunye, kuqoqwe ubufakazi bevidiyo bokuziphatha kwabo ngaphandle kokuthi umsolwa enolwazi lokuthi bebebukwa noma bayalandelwa.

Indiza yamaphoyisa. Ukwengeza zonke lezi zindlela ezintsha kuzoba i-drone. Cabangela lokhu: Amaphoyisa e-AI okukhulunywe ngawo ngenhla angasebenzisa inqwaba yezindiza ezingenayo ezindizayo ukuze athwebule izithombe zasemoyeni zezindawo okusolwa ukuthi kunezenzo zobugebengu. Amaphoyisa e-AI angabese esebenzisa lawa ma-drones ukulandelela abasolwa kulo lonke idolobha futhi, ezimeni eziphuthumayo lapho iphoyisa elingabantu likude kakhulu, lawa ma-drones angase asetshenziselwe ukujaha nokuthobisa abasolwa ngaphambi kokuba badale umonakalo noma ukulimala okubi ngokomzimba. Kulesi simo sokugcina, ama-drones azohlonywa ngama-tasers nezinye izikhali ezingabulali-isici. eseyahlolwa. Futhi uma uhlanganisa izimoto zamaphoyisa ezizishayelayo ekuxubeni ukuze zithathe i-perp, khona-ke lawa ma-drones angase aqedele ukuboshwa ngaphandle kwephoyisa elilodwa elingumuntu elihilelekile.

Izinto ezingazodwana zesistimu yamaphoyisa ezenzakalelayo echazwe ngenhla sezivele zikhona; okusele ukusetshenziswa kwezinhlelo ze-AI ezithuthukisiwe ukukuhlanganisa konke ku-juggernaut yokumisa ubugebengu. Kodwa uma leli zinga le-automation lingenzeka ngokusebenza komthetho emigwaqweni, ingabe lingasetshenziswa nasezinkantolo? Kuhlelo lwethu lokugwetshwa?

Ama-algorithms athatha indawo yamajaji ukuze agwebe izigebengu

Njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili, abahluleli abangabantu basengozini yokungenwa amaphutha abantu ahlukahlukene angonakalisa izinga lezinqumo abazikhiphayo nganoma yiluphi usuku. Futhi yilokhu kuthambekela okwenza ukuthi umqondo werobhothi elahlulela amacala angokomthetho ube nzima kunalokho owawuyikho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ubuchwepheshe obungenza ijaji elizenzakalelayo lenzeke abukho kude kangako. I-prototype yokuqala izodinga okulandelayo:

Ukuqashelwa kwezwi nokuhumusha: Uma ungumnikazi we-smartphone, cishe manje usuvele uzame ukusebenzisa isevisi yomsizi womuntu siqu njenge-Google Now ne-Siri. Lapho usebenzisa lezi zinsizakalo, bekufanele uqaphele futhi ukuthi unyaka nonyaka lezi zinsizakalo ziba ngcono kakhulu ekuqondeni imiyalo yakho, ngisho nephimbo eliwugqinsi noma phakathi kwengemuva elinomsindo. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, amasevisi afana umhumushi we-Skype banikeza ukuhumusha kwesikhathi sangempela nakho okuba ngcono unyaka nonyaka.

Ngo-2020, ochwepheshe abaningi babikezela ukuthi lobu buchwepheshe buzobe busondele ekupheleleni, futhi esimweni senkantolo, ijaji elizisebenzelayo lizosebenzisa lobu buchwepheshe ukuze liqoqe ukuqulwa kwamacala omlomo adingekayo ukuze kuqulwe icala.

Ukuhlakanipha okungekhona okwangempela. Ngokufanayo naleli phuzu elingenhla, uma usebenzise isevisi yomsizi womuntu siqu efana ne-Google Now ne-Siri, kufanele ngabe uqaphele ukuthi unyaka nonyaka lezi zinsizakalo ziba ngcono kakhulu ekunikezeni izimpendulo ezifanele noma eziwusizo emibuzweni oyibuza yona. . Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi izinhlelo zobuhlakani bokwenziwa ezinikeza lezi zinsizakalo amandla zithuthuka ngesivinini sombani.

Njengoba kukhonjisiwe ku isahluko sokuqala kulolu chungechunge, senze iphrofayili ye-Microsoft Ross Uhlelo lwe-AI olwakhelwe ukuba lube uchwepheshe wezomthetho wedijithali. Njengoba iMicrosoft ikuchaza, abameli sebengakwazi manje ukubuza imibuzo kaRoss ngesiNgisi esilula bese uRoss ezoqhubeka nokuhlanganisa "indikimba yomthetho futhi abuyisele impendulo ecashuniwe kanye nokufundwa kwezihloko ezivela emthethweni, umthetho wamacala, kanye nemithombo yesibili."

Uhlelo lwe-AI lwalolu hlobo lusasele iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi ukuthi luthuthuke ngaphezu komsizi wezomthetho lube umxazululi onokwethenjelwa wezomthetho, abe ijaji. (Ukuqhubekela phambili, sizosebenzisa igama elithi 'ijaji le-AI' esikhundleni 'sejaji elizenzakalelayo.')

Isistimu yezomthetho ekhokhwa ngedijithali. Isisekelo esikhona somthetho, okwamanje esibhalelwe amehlo nezingqondo zomuntu, sidinga ukushintshwa sibe ifomethi ehlelekile, efundeka ngomshini (enokubuzwa). Lokhu kuzovumela abameli be-AI namajaji ukuthi bafinyelele ngempumelelo amafayela ecala afanele kanye nobufakazi benkantolo, bese becubungula konke ngohlobo lohlu lokuhlola noma uhlelo lokuthola amaphuzu (ukwenza lula ngokweqile) oluzoyivumela ukuthi inqume ngesahlulelo/isigwebo esinobulungiswa.

Nakuba le phrojekthi yokufometha kabusha isaqhubeka, lena inqubo okwamanje engenziwa kuphela ngesandla futhi, ngakho-ke, kungathatha iminyaka ukuqedwa endaweni ngayinye esemthethweni. Okuhle, njengoba lezi zinhlelo ze-AI sezisetshenziswa kabanzi kuwo wonke umsebenzi wezomthetho, zizogqugquzela ukwakhiwa kwendlela emisiwe yokubhala umthetho ofundeka umuntu nomshini, ofana nendlela izinkampani namuhla ezibhala ngayo idatha yazo yewebhu ukuze ifundeke. Izinjini zokusesha ze-Google.

Uma kubhekwa iqiniso lokuthi lobu buchwepheshe obuthathu nemitapo yolwazi yedijithali izovuthwa ngokugcwele ukuze isetshenziswe ngokomthetho phakathi neminyaka emihlanu kuya kweyi-10 ezayo, umbuzo manje uba ukuthi amajaji e-AI azosetshenziswa kanjani ngempela yizinkantolo, uma kunjalo?

Izicelo zomhlaba wangempela zamajaji e-AI

Ngisho noma i-Silicon Valley ithuthukisa ubuchwepheshe ngemuva kwamajaji e-AI, kuzothatha amashumi eminyaka ngaphambi kokuba sibone umuntu ezama ngokuzimela futhi egweba othile enkantolo yomthetho ngezizathu ezihlukahlukene:

Okokuqala, kuzoba nokuhlehla okusobala okuvela kumajaji amisiwe anezinhlangano zezepolitiki ezixhumene kahle.
Kuzoba nokududulana okuvela emphakathini wezomthetho obanzi ozokhankasa ukuthi ubuchwepheshe be-AI abuthuthukisiwe ngokwanele ukuze buzame amacala angempela. (Ngisho noma bekungenjalo, abameli abaningi bebengakhetha izinkantolo eziphethwe ijaji elingumuntu, njengoba benethuba elingcono lokukholisa ubandlululo oluzalwa nalo kanye nokuchema kwalelo jaji elingumuntu ngokumelene ne-algorithm engenamizwa.)
Abaholi bezenkolo, nezinhlangano ezimbalwa zamalungelo abantu, bazophikisana ngokuthi akuwona umthetho ngomshini ukunquma isiphetho somuntu.
Izinhlelo zikamabonakude zesikhathi esizayo ze-sci-fi namamuvi zizoqala ukufaka amajaji e-AI ngendlela engeyinhle, kuqhutshekwe nerobhothi elibulalayo liqhudelana neqembu lamasiko eliye lathusa abathengi bezinganekwane amashumi eminyaka.

Uma kubhekwa zonke lezi zivimbamgwaqo, isimo esiseduze kakhulu samajaji e-AI kuzoba ukuzisebenzisa njengosizo kumajaji angabantu. Ecaleni lenkantolo lesikhathi esizayo (maphakathi nawo-2020), ijaji elingumuntu lizophatha ukuqulwa kwecala lasenkantolo futhi lilalele izinhlangothi zombili ukuze linqume ubumsulwa noma icala. Khonamanjalo, ijaji le-AI lizoqapha icala elifanayo, libuyekeze wonke amafayela wamacala futhi lilalele bonke ubufakazi, bese lethula ijaji elingumuntu ngedijithali ngokuthi:

Uhlu lwemibuzo ebalulekile yokulandelela okufanele uyibuze ngesikhathi sokuqulwa kwecala;
Ukuhlaziywa kobufakazi obuhlinzekwe ngaphambi kwesikhathi nangesikhathi sokuqulwa kwecala;
Ukuhlaziywa kwezimbobo kukho kokubili ukuvikela kanye nesethulo sabashushisi;
Umehluko obalulekile ebufakazini bofakazi kanye nasebufakazini bommangalelwa; futhi
Uhlu lokuchema ijaji lithambekele kukho lapho lizama uhlobo oluthile lwecala.

Lezi izinhlobo zemininingwane yesikhathi sangempela, ehlaziyayo, esekelayo amajaji amaningi angayamukela phakathi nokuphatha kwawo icala. Futhi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, njengoba amajaji eyanda esebenzisa futhi encika ekwazisweni kwalaba majaji be-AI, umqondo wamajaji e-AI azama amacala ngokuzimela uzokwamukelwa kakhulu.

Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yawo-2040 kuya maphakathi nawo-2050, sasikwazi ukubona amajaji e-AI ezama amacala alula ezinkantolo afana nokuphulwa kwemithetho yomgwaqo (ambalwa azobe esekhona ngaleso sikhathi ngenxa yezimoto ezizishayelayo), ukudakwa komphakathi, ukweba, kanye nobugebengu obunobudlova. enobufakazi obucacile, obumnyama nomhlophe kanye nesigwebo. Futhi ngaleso sikhathi, kufanele ososayensi baphelelise ubuchwepheshe bokufunda ingqondo obuchazwe ku isahluko esedlule, khona-ke lawa majaji e-AI angase asetshenziswe emacaleni anzima kakhulu ahlanganisa izingxabano zebhizinisi nomthetho womndeni.

Sekukonke, uhlelo lwethu lwezinkantolo luzobona ushintsho oluningi emashumini ambalwa eminyaka azayo kunalokho olubonwe emakhulwini ambalwa eminyaka adlule. Kodwa lesi sitimela asigcini ezinkantolo. Ukuthi sizibopha futhi sizilungise kanjani izigebengu zizobhekana namazinga afanayo oshintsho futhi yilokho kanye esizokufunda kabanzi esahlukweni esilandelayo salolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lomthetho.