I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

I-China, ukukhuphuka kwe-hegemon entsha yomhlaba wonke: I-Geopolitics of Climate Change

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 11:01

Lesi sibikezelo esingesihle sizogxila kupolitiki yaseShayina njengoba sihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu phakathi konyaka ka-2040 no-2050. Njengoba uqhubeka ufunda, uzobona iShayina esibekelwe onqenqemeni lokuwa ngenxa yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Sesikushilo lokho, uzofunda nangobuholi bayo ekugcineni ohlelweni lokusimamisa isimo sezulu emhlabeni jikelele nokuthi lobu buholi buzobeka kanjani izwe ekungqubuzaneni okuqondile ne-US, okungenzeka kubangele iMpi Yomshoshaphansi entsha.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale, ake sicacise ngezinto ezimbalwa. Lesi sithombe esifushane—leli kusasa lezwe lase-China—asizange sikhishwe emoyeni omncane. Konke osuzokufunda kusekelwe emsebenzini wezibikezelo zikahulumeni ezitholakala esidlangalaleni ezivela kokubili e-United States nase-United Kingdom, uchungechunge lwezikhungo zokucabanga ezizimele nezihlangene nohulumeni, kanye nomsebenzi wezintatheli ezifana no-Gwynne Dyer, a. umbhali ophambili kulo mkhakha. Izixhumanisi zemithombo eminingi esetshenzisiwe zibalwe ekugcineni.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi sifinyezo sisekelwe nasemicabangweni elandelayo:

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kukhawulwe kakhulu noma kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzohlala kulinganisiwe kuya kokungekho.
Awukho umzamo owenziwe ngeplanethi ye-geoengineering.
Umsebenzi welanga welanga ayiweli ngezansi isimo sayo samanje, ngaleyo ndlela inciphisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke.
Awekho impumelelo ebalulekile eqanjwa ku-fusion energy, futhi akukho mali enkulu etshalwa emhlabeni wonke ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima eqondile.
Ngonyaka wezi-2040, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzobe sekudlulele esigabeni lapho ukugcwala kwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini kwedlula izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi.
Ufunda isingeniso sethu sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela engemihle kakhulu esizoba nayo emanzini ethu okuphuza, ezolimo, amadolobha asogwini, nezinhlobo zezitshalo nezilwane uma kungekho zinyathelo ezithathwayo ngokumelene nakho.

Unalokhu kuqagela, sicela ufunde lesi sibikezelo sezulu esilandelayo ngomqondo ovulekile.

I-China empambana mgwaqo

Iminyaka yawo-2040 izoba yishumi leminyaka elibucayi e-People's Republic of China. Izwe lizohlukana libe iziphathimandla zesifunda eziphukile noma liqine libe amandla amakhulu antshontsha umhlaba e-US.

Amanzi nokudla

Ngeminyaka yawo-2040, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzoba nomthelela omubi ezindaweni ezigcina amanzi ahlanzekile eShayina. Amazinga okushisa e-Tibetan Plateau azokhuphuka phakathi kwamadigri amabili namane, anciphise amaqhwa eqhwa futhi anciphise inani lamanzi akhishelwa emifuleni egeleza e-China.

I-Tanggula Mountain Range izophinde ilahlekelwe kakhulu ngenxa yeqhwa layo, okubangele ukuthi inethiwekhi yoMfula i-Yangtze inciphe kakhulu. Ngaleso sikhathi, ama-monsoon asehlobo asenyakatho azobe engasekho, ancipha i-Huang He (Yellow River) ngenxa yalokho.

Lokhu kulahlekelwa kwamanzi ahlanzekile kuzonciphisa kakhulu isivuno sokulima saseShayina saminyaka yonke, ikakhulukazi izitshalo eziyisisekelo ezifana nokolweni nerayisi. Umhlaba wokulima othengwa emazweni angaphandle—ikakhulukazi lawo ase-Afrika— nawo uzophucwa, njengoba iziyaluyalu ezinobudlova ezivela ezakhamuzini zalawo mazwe ezibulawa indlala zizokwenza ukuthunyelwa kokudla kwamanye amazwe kungenzeki.

Ukungazinzi emnyombeni

Isibalo sabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-1.4 ngeminyaka yawo-2040 okuhambisana nokushoda kokudla kakhulu cishe kuzodala iziyaluyalu ezinkulu zombango eChina. Ukwengeza, ishumi leminyaka leziphepho ezinamandla ezibangelwa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokwanda kwamazinga olwandle kuzophumela ekufudukeni okukhulu kwangaphakathi kwababaleki besimo sezulu abangenamakhaya abavela emadolobheni ambalwa angasogwini anabantu abaningi kakhulu ezweni. Uma kwenzeka iqembu elimaphakathi lamaKhomanisi lihluleka ukuhlinzeka usizo olwanele kwababalekile nabalambile, lizolahlekelwa yikho konke ukwethembeka phakathi kwabantu balo futhi, izifundazwe ezicebile zingase ziqhelelane neBeijing.

Amandla ayadlala

Ukuze izinze isimo sayo, i-China izoqinisa ubudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe obukhona njengamanje futhi yakhe obusha ukuze ivikele izinsiza ezidingekayo ukuze yondle abantu bayo futhi ivimbele umnotho wayo ungabhidliki.

Izoqale ibheke ukwakha ubudlelwano obuseduze neRussia, izwe okuzothi ngeminyaka yawo-2040 liphinde libe namandla amakhulu ngokuba ngelinye lamazwe ambalwa akwazi ukuthumela insalela yokudla kwamanye amazwe. Ngokubambisana okunesu elihle, i-China izotshala imali futhi ithuthukise ingqalasizinda yaseRussia ukuze ithole kokubili amanani akhethekile okuthunyelwa kokudla ngaphandle kanye nemvume yokuthutha ababaleki baseShayina abayizimo sezulu abasalayo babayise ezifundazweni ezisanda kuvunda ezisempumalanga yeRussia.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, i-China izophinde isebenzise ubuholi bayo ekukhiqizeni amandla, njengoba ukutshalwa kwezimali kwayo kwesikhathi eside ku-Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors (LFTRs: amandla enuzi aphephile, ashibhile, alandelayo esizukulwane esizayo) ekugcineni kuzokhokha. Ikakhulukazi, ukwakhiwa okusabalele kwama-LFTR kuzozuzisa amakhulukhulu ezitshalo zamandla wamalahle ezweni. Phezu kwalokho, ngokutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu kweShayina kubuchwepheshe begridi evuselelekayo kanye nehlakaniphile, izophinde yakhe enye yengqalasizinda kagesi eluhlaza neshibhe kunazo zonke emhlabeni.

Isebenzisa lobu buchwepheshe, i-China izothekelisa i-LFTR yayo ethuthukisiwe kanye nobuchwepheshe bamandla avuselelekayo emazweni amaningi omhlaba acekelwe phansi yisimo sezulu ukuze ithole amadili avumayo okuthenga impahla. Umphumela: lawa mazwe azohlomula emandleni ashibhile ukuze aqhubekisele phambili ukuchithwa kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima, kuyilapho i-China izosebenzisa izinto ezingavuthiwe ezitholiwe ukuze iqhubeke nokwakha ingqalasizinda yayo yesimanje, kanye neyabaseRussia.

Ngale nqubo, i-China izophinde ikhiphe izimbangi zezinkampani zaseNtshonalanga futhi yenze buthaka ithonya lase-US phesheya, ngenkathi ithuthukisa isithombe sayo njengomholi ohlelweni lokuzinzisa isimo sezulu.

Okokugcina, abezindaba baseShayina bazoqondisa noma iyiphi intukuthelo yasekhaya esele evela esakhamuzini esivamile izimbangi zendabuko zezwe, ezifana ne-Japan ne-US.

Ukukhetha ukulwa neMelika

Njengoba i-China icindezela i-gas pedal emnothweni wayo kanye nobudlelwano bamazwe ngamazwe, ukungqubuzana kwezempi ekugcineni ne-US kungase kungenzeki. Womabili la mazwe azofuna ukusimamisa umnotho wawo ngokuqhudelana ngezimakethe nezinsiza zalawo mazwe asele ezinzile ngokwanele ukuthi angenza ibhizinisi ngawo. Njengoba ukunyakaza kwalezo zinsiza (iningi lempahla eluhlaza) kuzokwenziwa kakhulu phezu kolwandle oluphakeme, ibutho lasolwandle laseShayina kuzodingeka liphumele ngaphandle liye ePacific ukuze livikele imizila yalo yemikhumbi. Ngamanye amazwi, izodinga ukuphuma emanzini alawulwayo aseMelika.

Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2040, ukuhwebelana phakathi kwalawa mazwe womabili kuzobe sekwehlile kwafika ezingeni eliphansi kakhulu emashumini eminyaka. Abasebenzi baseShayina asebekhulile bazomba eqolo kubakhiqizi base-US, okuyothi ngaleso sikhathi bazobe sebeyilungisile ngokuphelele imigqa yabo yokukhiqiza noma badlulele ezindaweni zokukhiqiza ezishibhile e-Afrika naseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia. Ngenxa yalokhu kwehla kwezohwebo, alukho uhlangothi oluzozizwa lubheke ngokweqile komunye ngokuchuma kwalo kwezomnotho, okuholela esimweni esingaba khona esihehayo:

Ukwazi ukuthi ibutho layo lasolwandle alisoze laqhudelana ne-US ngqo (uma kunikezwe uxhaxha lwemikhumbi yezindiza zase-US ezithwala izindiza eziyishumi nambili), i-China ingakhomba umnotho wase-US esikhundleni salokho. Ngokukhukhula ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe ngamadola aseMelika kanye namabhondi omgcinimafa, iShayina ingacekela phansi inani ledola futhi ikhubaze ukusetshenziswa kwe-US kwezimpahla nezinsiza ezivela kwamanye amazwe. Lokhu kuzosusa okwesikhashana umuntu oncintisana naye obalulekile ezimakethe zezimpahla zomhlaba futhi kuziveze ebukhosini baseShayina naseRussia.

Vele, umphakathi waseMelika uzothukuthela, abanye kwesokudla kakhulu bebiza impi yonke. Ngenhlanhla yomhlaba wonke, alukho uhlangothi oluzokwazi ukukukhokhela: I-China izoba nezinkinga ezanele zokondla abantu bayo futhi igweme ukuvukela kwasekhaya, kuyilapho ubuthakathaka bedola laseMelika kanye nenkinga yababaleki engalawuleki kuzosho ukuthi ngeke isakwazi ukukhokhela enye. ende, impi edonsa kanzima.

Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, isimo esinjalo ngeke sivumele noma yiliphi izinhlangothi ukuba zihlehle ngenxa yezizathu zezombangazwe, ekugcineni ziholele eMpini Yomshoshaphansi entsha eyayizophoqa amazwe omhlaba ukuba afole nhlangothi zombili zomugqa ohlukanisayo.

Izizathu zethemba

Okokuqala, khumbula ukuthi lokho osanda kukufunda kuwukubikezela kuphela, hhayi iqiniso. Kuphinde kube isibikezelo esilotshwe ngo-2015. Kuningi okungenzeka futhi kuzokwenzeka phakathi kwamanje nowezi-2040 ukuze kubhekwane nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu (okuningi kwakho kuzovezwa esiphethweni esiwuchungechunge). Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, izibikezelo ezichazwe ngenhla zingavinjelwa kakhulu kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla kanye nesizukulwane sanamuhla.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungase kube nomthelela kanjani kwezinye izifunda zomhlaba noma ukufunda mayelana nokuthi yini engenziwa ukuze kunciphe futhi ekugcineni kuhoxiswe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, funda uchungechunge lwethu oluphathelene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokusebenzisa izixhumanisi ezingezansi: