Abantu bazozivikela kanjani ku-Artificial Superintelligence: Ikusasa le-Artificial Intelligence P5

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Abantu bazozivikela kanjani ku-Artificial Superintelligence: Ikusasa le-Artificial Intelligence P5

    Unyaka 65,000 BCE, futhi njengoba a I-Thylacoleo, wena kanye nohlobo lwakho naningabazingeli abakhulu base-Australia yasendulo. Uzulazule ezweni ngokukhululekile futhi uhlala ngokulingana nezinye izilwane ezidla ezinye kanye nempango ethathe izwe eduze nawe. Izinkathi zonyaka zaletha ushintsho, kodwa isimo sakho ezilwaneni sahlala singenakuphikiswa isikhathi eside wena nokhokho bakho nisakhumbula. Kwathi ngolunye usuku kwavela abasanda kuhlanganyela.

    Amahemuhemu athi zafika zivela odongeni olukhulu lwamanzi, kodwa lezi zilwane zazibonakala zikhululekile ukuhlala emhlabeni. Kwakumele uzibonele lezi zidalwa.

    Kuthathe izinsuku ezimbalwa, kodwa ekugcineni wafinyelela ogwini. Umlilo esibhakabhakeni wawubathile, isikhathi esikahle sokuhlola lezi zilwane, mhlawumbe uze uzame ukudla esisodwa ukuze ubone ukuthi zinambitha kanjani.

    Ubona eyodwa.

    Yayihamba ngemilenze emibili futhi ingenabo uboya. Yayibukeka ibuthakathaka. Ayihlaba umxhwele. Alukufanele neze ukwesaba okwakubangela phakathi kombuso.

    Uqala ukwenza indlela yakho ngokucophelela njengoba ubusuku buxosha ukukhanya. Uyasondela. Bese uyabanda. Kuzwakala imisindo emikhulu bese kuqhamuka ezinye ezine ziphuma ehlathini elingemuva kwalo. Bangaki?

    Isidalwa silandela ezinye emgqeni wesihlahla, bese uyalandela. Futhi lapho wenza okwengeziwe, yilapho uzwa khona imisindo engavamile uze ubone eziningi zalezi zidalwa. Ulandela kude njengoba bephuma ehlathini beyongena endaweni evulekile ngasogwini. Ziningi zazo. Kodwa okubaluleke nakakhulu, bonke bahlezi ngokuthula bezungeze umlilo.

    Uke wayibona le mililo ngaphambilini. Ngenkathi eshisayo, umlilo esibhakabhakeni ngezinye izikhathi wawuvakashela umhlaba futhi ushise wonke amahlathi. Lezi zidalwa, ngakolunye uhlangothi, zaziwulawula ngandlela thize. Hlobo luni lwezidalwa ezingaba namandla anjalo?

    Ubheka kude. Ezinye ziyeza phezu kodonga olukhulu lwamanzi.

    Uthatha isinyathelo emuva.

    Lezi zidalwa azifani nezinye embusweni. Bayinto entsha ngokuphelele.

    Unquma ukuhamba futhi uxwayise izihlobo zakho. Uma amanani abo ekhula kakhulu, ngubani owaziyo ukuthi yini engenzeka.

    ***

    Kukholakala ukuthi i-Thylacoleo yashabalala isikhashana nje ngemva kokufika kwabantu, kanye neningi lamanye ama-megafauna ezwekazini lase-Australia. Azikho ezinye izilwane ezidla ezinye ezincelisayo ezithathe indawo yazo—ngaphandle kwalapho ubala abantu abakuleso sigaba.

    Ukudlala lo mfanekiso okuyingqikithi yalesi sahluko sochungechunge: Ingabe i-artificial superintelligence (ASI) yesikhathi esizayo izosenza sonke sibe amabhethri bese isixhuma ku-Matrix noma ingabe abantu bazoyithola indlela yokugwema ukuba yisisulu se-sci-fi, Icebo losuku lwenhlekelele ye-AI?

    Kuze kube manje ochungechungeni lwethu ku Ikusasa Le-Artificial Intelligence, sihlole zonke izinhlobo ze-AI, okuhlanganisa amandla amahle ohlobo oluthile lwe-AI, i-ASI: isidalwa sokwenziwa ubuhlakani baso besikhathi esizayo obuzosenza sibukeke njengezintuthwane uma siqhathaniswa.

    Kodwa ubani ongasho ukuthi isidalwa esihlakaniphile singavuma ukuthatha ama-oda kubantu unomphela. Sizokwenzenjani uma izinto zihambela eningizimu? Sizovikela kanjani ku-ASI ekhohlakele?

    Kulesi sahluko, sizonqamula izinkulumo mbumbulu—okungenani njengoba zihlobene nezingozi 'zezinga lokushabalala kwabantu'—futhi sigxile ezindleleni ezingokoqobo zokuzivikela ezitholakala kohulumeni bamazwe ngamazwe.

    Singakwazi yini ukumisa lonke ucwaningo olwengeziwe ku-superintelligence yokwenziwa?

    Uma kubhekwa ubungozi obungase bubangelwe i-ASI esintwini, umbuzo wokuqala osobala okufanele uwubuze uthi: Asikwazi yini ukumisa lonke ucwaningo olwengeziwe nge-AI? Noma okungenani wenqabele noma yiluphi ucwaningo olungase lusisondeza ngokuyingozi ekudaleni i-ASI?

    Impendulo emfushane: Cha.

    Impendulo ende: Ake sibheke abadlali abahlukene abathintekayo lapha.

    Ezingeni locwaningo, baningi kakhulu abacwaningi be-AI namuhla abavela kwaqalwa, izinkampani, namanyuvesi amaningi emhlabeni jikelele. Uma inkampani eyodwa noma izwe linquma ukunciphisa imizamo yabo yocwaningo lwe-AI, bazoqhubeka kwenye indawo.

    Ngaleso sikhathi, izinkampani ezibaluleke kakhulu emhlabeni zenza ingcebo ngokusebenzisa izinhlelo ze-AI emabhizinisini azo athile. Ukubacela ukuthi bamise noma bakhawulele ukuthuthukiswa kwamathuluzi e-AI kufana nokubacela ukuthi bamise noma banciphise ukukhula kwabo kwekusasa. Ngokwezimali, lokhu kungasongela ibhizinisi labo lesikhathi eside. Ngokomthetho, izinkampani zinesibopho sokwethembeka ngokuqhubekayo ukwakha inani lababambe iqhaza; lokho kusho ukuthi noma isiphi isenzo esingakhawulela ukukhula kwalelo nani singaholela enkantolo. Futhi uma noma yimuphi usopolitiki ezama ukukhawulela ucwaningo lwe-AI, lezi zinkampani ezinkulu zizovele zikhokhe imali edingekayo yokunxenxa ukuze ziguqule imiqondo yazo noma izingqondo zozakwabo.

    Empini, njengamaphekula nabalweli benkululeko emhlabeni jikelele basebenzise amaqhinga okuvukela umbuso ukulwa namasosha axhaswa kangcono, amazwe amancane azoba nesisusa sokusebenzisa i-AI njengenzuzo yeqhinga elifanayo ngokumelene nezizwe ezinkulu ezingaba nenani lezinzuzo zempi. Ngokunjalo, emabuthweni aphezulu, njengalawo aseMelika, eRussia naseChina, ukwakha i-ASI yezempi kuhambisana nokuba nenqolobane yezikhali zenuzi ephaketheni lakho elingemuva. Ngamanye amazwi, wonke amasosha azoqhubeka nokuxhasa ngezimali i-AI ukuze nje ihlale ibalulekile esikhathini esizayo.

    Kuthiwani ngohulumeni? Eqinisweni, osopolitiki abaningi kulezi zinsuku (2018) abakwazi ukufunda nokubhala kwezobuchwepheshe futhi banokuqonda okuncane kokuthi i-AI iyini noma amandla ayo esikhathi esizayo—lokhu kubenza kube lula ukuxhaphaza izithakazelo zezinkampani.

    Futhi ezingeni lomhlaba wonke, cabanga ukuthi kwakunzima kangakanani ukukholisa ohulumeni bomhlaba ukuthi basayine i-2015 Isivumelwano Paris ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu—futhi lapho sekusayinwe, izibopho eziningi zazingabopheleli. Akukhona lokho kuphela, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuyindaba abantu ababhekana nayo ngokomzimba emhlabeni jikelele ngenxa yezehlakalo zesimo sezulu ezivame ukwanda nezibi kakhulu. Manje, uma sikhuluma ngokuvuma imikhawulo ku-AI, le yinkinga engabonakali futhi engaqondakali emphakathini, ngakho-ke sikufisela inhlanhla yokuthenga nganoma yiluphi uhlobo 'lweSivumelwano SaseParis' sokukhawulela i-AI.

    Ngamanye amazwi, ziningi kakhulu izithakazelo ezicwaninga nge-AI ngezinjongo zazo ukumisa noma yiluphi ucwaningo olungagcina luholele ku-ASI. 

    Singakwazi yini ukufaka i-superintelligence yokwenziwa?

    Umbuzo olandelayo ophusile ukuthi singayibamba noma siyilawule i-ASI uma sesiyidale ngokungenakugwenywa? 

    Impendulo emfushane: Futhi, cha.

    Impendulo ende: Ubuchwepheshe abukwazi ukuquleka.

    Okokuqala, cabanga nje izinkulungwane kuya ezigidini zabathuthukisi bewebhu nososayensi bamakhompiyutha emhlabeni abahlala bekhipha isofthiwe entsha noma izinguqulo ezintsha zesofthiwe ekhona. Singasho ngokweqiniso ukuthi yonke isoftware yabo ekhishwayo ayinazo iziphazamisi ezingamaphesenti ayi-100? Lezi ziphazamisi yizo izigebengu ezichwepheshile ezizisebenzisayo ukuze zintshontshe ulwazi lwekhadi lesikweletu lezigidi noma izimfihlo ezihlukanisiwe zezizwe—futhi lezi izigebengu ezingabantu. Ku-ASI, kucatshangwa ukuthi inesisusa sokubalekela ikheji layo ledijithali, khona-ke inqubo yokuthola izimbungulu kanye nokugqekeza isoftware ingaba mnandi.

    Kepha noma ngabe ithimba labacwaningi be-AI lithole indlela yokufaka i-ASI, lokho akusho ukuthi amaqembu ayinkulungwane alandelayo azoyithola noma azogqugquzelwa ukuthi ayisebenzise.

    Kuzothatha izigidigidi zamaRandi futhi mhlawumbe ngisho namashumi eminyaka ukudala i-ASI. Izinkampani noma ohulumeni abatshala lolu hlobo lwemali nesikhathi bazolindela imbuyiselo ebalulekile ekutshalweni kwabo. Futhi ukuze i-ASI inikeze lolo hlobo lwembuyiselo—noma ngabe lokho kuwumdlalo wemakethe yamasheya noma ukusungula umkhiqizo omusha wamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane noma ihlele isu lokuwina ukuze ilwe nebutho elikhulu—izodinga ukufinyelela kwamahhala kusethi yedatha enkulu noma i-Intanethi imbala. uqobo ukukhiqiza lezo zinzuzo.

    Futhi uma i-ASI isikwazi ukufinyelela amanethiwekhi omhlaba, azikho iziqinisekiso zokuthi singayibuyisela ekhejini layo.

    Ingabe i-supertelligence yokwenziwa ingafunda ukuba muhle?

    Njengamanje, abacwaningi be-AI abakhathazekile ngokuthi i-ASI iba yimbi. Ububi bonke, i-AI sci-fi trope imane nje i-anthropomorphizing yabantu futhi. I-ASI yesikhathi esizayo ngeke ibe yinhle noma ibe yimbi—imibono yabantu—imane ibe neyokuziphatha okuhle.

    Umcabango wemvelo-ke uwukuthi uma kunikezwe lesi silayidi sokuziphatha esingenalutho, abacwaningi be-AI bangahlela amakhodi ezimiso ze-ASI okuqala ahambisana nawethu ukuze ingagcini isikhiphele ama-Terminator kithi noma isiphendule sonke sibe amabhethri e-Matrix.

    Kepha lo mcabango uvela emcabangweni wesibili wokuthi abacwaningi be-AI nabo bangochwepheshe bezimiso zokuziphatha, ifilosofi, kanye nesayensi yokusebenza kwengqondo.

    Eqinisweni, abaningi abanjalo.

    Ngokusho kwesazi sokusebenza kwengqondo nombhali, uSteven Pinker, leli qiniso lisho ukuthi umsebenzi wokubhala amakhodi ungahamba kabi ngezindlela ezihlukahlukene ezahlukene.

    Isibonelo, ngisho nabacwaningi be-AI abanezinhloso ezinhle kakhulu bangase bafake ikhodi kulawa makhodi e-ASI acatshangelwe kabi okuthi ezimeni ezithile angabangela i-ASI yenze njengesociopath.

    Ngokufanayo, kunethuba elilinganayo lokuthi umcwaningi we-AI ahlele amakhodi okuziphatha ahlanganisa ukuchema komcwaningi okungokwemvelo. Isibonelo, i-ASI ingaziphatha kanjani uma yakhiwe ngezimiso zokuziphatha ezithathwe ekubukeni okuqinile uma kuqhathaniswa nenkululeko, noma kusiko lwamaBuddha uma liqhathaniswa nelobuKristu noma lobuSulumane?

    Ngicabanga ukuthi uyayibona inkinga lapha: Alikho iqoqo lezimiso zokuziphatha lomuntu elitholakala emhlabeni wonke. Uma sifuna i-ASI yethu isebenze ngekhodi yokuziphatha, izovelaphi? Imiphi imithetho esiyihlanganisayo nesingayifaki? Ubani onqumayo?

    Noma ake sithi laba bacwaningi be-AI benza i-ASI ehambisana ngokuphelele nezinkambiso nemithetho yamasiko yesimanje. Sibe sesisebenzisa le ASI ukuze sisize iziphathimandla zikahulumeni, zesifunda/zezifundazwe, kanye nomasipala zisebenze kahle futhi zisebenzise kangcono le mikhuba nemithetho (indlela okungenzeka ukuthi isebenzise i-ASI). Nokho, kwenzekani lapho isiko lethu lishintsha?

    Cabanga nje ukuthi i-ASI yasungulwa iBandla lamaKhatholika ngesikhathi inamandla amakhulu ngesikhathi se-Medieval Europe (1300-1400s) ngenhloso yokusiza ibandla ukuthi lilawule inani labantu kanye nokuqinisekisa ukubambelela ngokuqinile emfundisweni yenkolo yangaleso sikhathi. Emakhulwini eminyaka kamuva, ingabe abesifazane babeyojabulela amalungelo afanayo nawanamuhla? Ingabe abantu abambalwa babezovikelwa? Ingabe inkululeko yokukhuluma ingathuthukiswa? Ingabe ukuhlukaniswa kwesonto nombuso kwakuzophoqelelwa? Isayensi yesimanje?

    Ngamanye amazwi, ingabe sifuna ukubophela ikusasa ezimpahleni zokuziphatha namasiko anamuhla?

    Enye indlela eyabelwe uColin Allen, umbhali-kanye wale ncwadi, Imishini Yokuziphatha: Ukufundisa Amarobhothi Alungile Nakungalungile. Esikhundleni sokuzama ukufaka ikhodi yemithetho yokuziphatha eqinile, sine-ASI efunda izimiso zokuziphatha nokuziphatha ngendlela efanayo abantu benza ngayo, ngolwazi nokusebenzelana nabanye.

    Inkinga lapha, nokho, iwukuthi uma abacwaningi be-AI bengatholi nje kuphela ukuthi bangafundisa kanjani i-ASI izinkambiso zethu zamanje zamasiko nezimiso zokuziphatha, kodwa nokuthi bazivumelanisa kanjani nezinkambiso zamasiko ezintsha njengoba ziphakama (into ebizwa ngokuthi 'indirect normativity'), pho-ke kanjani le-ASI inquma ukuguqula ukuqonda kwayo kwezinkambiso zamasiko nezokuziphatha iba yinto engalindelekile.

    Futhi lokho kuyinselele.

    Ngakolunye uhlangothi, abacwaningi be-AI bangazama ukufaka amakhodi izindinganiso eziqinile zokuziphatha noma imithetho ku-ASI ukuze bazame ukulawula ukuziphatha kwayo, kodwa engozini imiphumela engalindelekile yethulwe kusukela ekubhaleni amakhodi budlabha, ukuchema okungahlosiwe, kanye nezinkambiso zomphakathi ezingase ziphelelwe yisikhathi ngelinye ilanga. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, singazama ukuqeqesha i-ASI ukuze ifunde ukuqonda izimiso zokuziphatha nokuziphatha komuntu ngendlela elingana noma ephakeme kunokuqonda kwethu bese sethemba ukuthi ingashintsha ngokunembile ukuqonda kwayo izimiso zokuziphatha nokuziphatha njengoba umphakathi wesintu uthuthuka. phambili emashumini eminyaka namakhulu eminyaka ezayo.

    Noma iyiphi indlela, noma yimuphi umzamo wokuqondanisa izinjongo ze-ASI nezethu uletha ubungozi obukhulu.

    Kuthiwani uma abadlali ababi bedala ubuhlakani bokwenziwa okubi ngamabomu?

    Uma kubhekwa isitimela somcabango esishiwo kuze kube manje, umbuzo ofanelekile ukubuza ukuthi kungenzeka yini ukuthi iqembu lamaphekula noma isizwe esikhohlakele sidale i-ASI 'embi' yezinhloso zabo.

    Lokhu kungenzeka kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngemuva kokuthi ucwaningo olubandakanyeka ekudaleni i-ASI lutholakala ku-inthanethi ngandlela thile.

    Kodwa njengoba kuphawuliwe ngaphambili, izindleko nobungcweti obuhilelekile ekudaleni i-ASI yokuqala kuzoba kukhulu, okusho ukuthi i-ASI yokuqala cishe izodalwa inhlangano elawulwa noma ethonywe kakhulu izwe elithuthukile, cishe i-US, i-China, ne-Japan. IKorea kanye nelinye lamazwe ahamba phambili e-EU amashothi amade).

    Wonke lawa mazwe, ngenkathi encintisana, ngalinye linesisusa esinamandla sezomnotho sokugcina ukuhleleka komhlaba—ama-ASI awadalayo azobonisa leso sifiso, nakuba ethuthukisa izithakazelo zezizwe azihlanganisa nazo.

    Phezu kwalokho, ubuhlakani namandla etiyetha ye-ASI alingana namandla ekhompyutha ekwazi ukuwafinyelela, okusho ukuthi ama-ASI avela emazweni athuthukile (angakwazi ukukhokhela inqwaba yezigidigidi zamadola. ama-supercomputers) izoba nenzuzo enkulu kunama-ASI avela ezizweni ezincane noma amaqembu ezigebengu azimele. Futhi, ama-ASI akhula ahlakaniphe kakhulu, ngokushesha okukhulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

    Ngakho-ke, uma kubhekwa lesi siqalo sekhanda, kuhlanganiswe nokufinyelela okukhulu kwamandla ekhompyutha aluhlaza, uma inhlangano/isizwe esinethunzi sidala i-ASI eyingozi, ama-ASI avela ezizweni ezithuthukile azoyibulala noma ayifake ekhejini.

    (Lokhu kucabanga futhi kungani abanye abacwaningi be-AI bekholelwa ukuthi kuzoba ne-ASI eyodwa kuphela emhlabeni, njengoba i-ASI yokuqala izoba nesiqalo esinjalo phezu kwawo wonke ama-ASI aphumelelayo ukuze ibone i-ASI yesikhathi esizayo njengezinsongo zokubulawa. Lesi ngesinye isizathu esenza amazwe axhase ucwaningo oluqhubekayo ku-AI, uma kwenzeka luba umncintiswano 'wendawo yokuqala noma lutho'.)

    Ubuhlakani be-ASI ngeke busheshise noma buqhume njengoba sicabanga

    Asikwazi ukumisa i-ASI ukuthi idalwe. Asikwazi ukukulawula ngokuphelele. Ngeke siqiniseke ukuthi izohlala yenza ngokuvumelana nemikhuba yethu eyabiwe. Hhawu, sesiqala ukuzwakala njengabazali bendiza enophephela emhlane lapha!

    Kodwa okuhlukanisa isintu nomzali wakho ovikela ngokweqile ukuthi sizala isidalwa esizohlakanipha kakhulu ngaphezu kokwethu. (Futhi cha, akufani nalapho abazali bakho bekucela ukuthi ulungise ikhompuyutha yabo noma nini lapho ufika ekhaya ukuvakasha.) 

    Ezahlukweni ezedlule zalolu chungechunge lwekusasa lobuhlakani bokwenziwa, sihlole ukuthi kungani abacwaningi be-AI becabanga ukuthi ubuhlakani be-ASI buzokhula ngendlela engenakulawuleka. Kodwa lapha, sizoqhumisa lelo bhamuza ... uhlobo. 

    Uyabona, ubuhlakani abuzidali nje ngomoya omncane, buthuthukiswa ngolwazi olulolongwa yizisusa zangaphandle.  

    Ngamanye amazwi, singahlela i-AI nge okungenzeka ukuze sibe nobuhlakani obukhulu, kodwa ngaphandle kwalapho silayisha kuyo ithoni yedatha noma siyinikeze ukufinyelela okungakhawulelwe ku-inthanethi noma siyinikeze umzimba werobhothi, ngeke ifunde lutho ukufinyelela lawo mandla. 

    Futhi ngisho noma ikwazi ukufinyelela kokukodwa noma ngaphezulu kwalezo zishukumiso, ulwazi noma ukuhlakanipha kuhilela okungaphezu nje kokuqoqa idatha, kuhilela indlela yesayensi—ukwenza umbono, ukwakha umbuzo, inkolelo-mbono, ukwenza izivivinyo, ukwenza isiphetho, hlambulula. futhi uphinde unomphela. Ikakhulukazi uma lokhu kuhlola kuhilela izinto ezibonakalayo noma ukubheka abantu, imiphumela yokuhlola ngakunye ingathatha amasonto, izinyanga, noma iminyaka ukuqoqwa. Lokhu akukhathaleli ngisho nemali nezinsiza ezingavuthiwe ezidingekayo ukuze kwenziwe lokhu kuhlola, ikakhulukazi uma kuhilela ukwakha isibonakude esisha noma imboni. 

    Ngamanye amazwi, yebo, i-ASI izofunda ngokushesha, kodwa ubuhlakani akuwona umlingo. Awukwazi ukumane uxhume i-ASI ku-supercomputer ulindele ukuthi kwazi konke. Kuzoba nezingqinamba ezingokomzimba ekutholweni kwedatha kwe-ASI, okusho ukuthi kuzoba nezingqinamba ezingokomzimba ejubaneni lokuthi ikhule ihlakaniphe kakhulu. Lezi zingqinamba zizonikeza isintu isikhathi esisidingayo sokubeka izilawuli ezidingekayo kule ASI uma iqala ukwenza ngokungahambisani nemigomo yomuntu.

    I-superintelligence yokwenziwa iyingozi kuphela uma iphumela emhlabeni wangempela

    Elinye iphuzu elilahlekile kuyo yonke le mpikiswano yengozi ye-ASI ukuthi lawa ma-ASI ngeke abe khona nakuwo. Bayoba nesimo somzimba. Futhi noma yini enesimo somzimba ingalawuleka.

    Okokuqala, ukuze i-ASI ifinyelele amandla ayo obuhlakani, ayikwazi ukugcinwa ngaphakathi kwerobhothi elilodwa, njengoba lo mzimba ungakhawulela amandla awo okukhula kwekhompyutha. (Yingakho imizimba yamarobhothi izofaneleka kakhulu kuma-AGI noma ubuhlakani obujwayelekile bokwenziwa buchazwe esahlukweni sesibili yalolu chungechunge, njengeDatha evela ku-Star Trek noma i-R2D2 evela ku-Star Wars. Izidalwa ezihlakaniphile nezinekhono, kodwa njengabantu, zizoba nomkhawulo wokuthi zingahlakanipha kangakanani.)

    Lokhu kusho ukuthi lawa ma-ASI esikhathi esizayo cishe azoba khona ngaphakathi kwekhompuyutha enkulu noma inethiwekhi yamakhompiyutha amakhulu agcinwe ezakhiweni ezinkulu zezakhiwo. Uma i-ASI iphenduka isithende, abantu bangakwazi ukuvala amandla kulezi zakhiwo, bazinqamule ku-inthanethi, noma bavele babhomule lezi zakhiwo ngokuqondile. Kuyabiza, kodwa kuyenzeka.

    Kodwa-ke ungase ubuze, ingabe lawa ma-ASI awakwazi ukuziphindaphinda noma azisekele? Yebo, kodwa usayizi wefayela ongahluziwe walawa ma-ASI cishe uzoba mkhulu kangangokuthi amaseva kuphela angakwazi ukuwaphatha awezinkampani ezinkulu noma ohulumeni, okusho ukuthi ngeke kube nzima ukuzingela.

    Ingabe i-superintelligence yokwenziwa ingavusa impi yenuzi noma inhlupho entsha?

    Kuleli qophelo, kungenzeka ukuthi ucabanga emuva kuyo yonke imibukiso ye-sci-fi yosuku lwembubhiso namamuvi owabukele usakhula futhi ucabanga ukuthi lawa ma-ASI awazange ahlale ngaphakathi kwamakhompuyutha awo amakhulu, enze umonakalo wangempela emhlabeni wangempela!

    Awu, ake sihlukanise lezi.

    Isibonelo, kuthiwani uma i-ASI isongela umhlaba wangempela ngokushintsha into efana ne-Skynet ASI evela ku-franchise yefilimu, i-Terminator. Kulokhu, i-ASI izodinga ngasese dupe yonke inkimbinkimbi yezimboni zamasosha kusuka esizweni esithuthukile ukwakha izimboni ezinkulu ezingakhipha izigidi zamarobhothi abulalayo ukuze enze ukubhida kwawo okubi. Kulolu suku nenkathi, lokho kuyinto elula.

    Amanye amathuba ahlanganisa i-ASI esongela abantu ngempi yenuzi kanye nezikhali ze-bioweapons.

    Isibonelo, i-ASI ngandlela thize ikhohlisa o-opharetha noma igebenga amakhodi okuqalisa ayala izikhali zenuzi zesizwe esithuthukisiwe futhi iqalise isiteleka sokuqala esizophoqa amazwe aphikisanayo ukuthi aphindiselele ngezinketho zawo zenuzi (futhi, ukuhlehlisa kabusha isiphetho se-Terminator). Noma uma i-ASI igqekeza elebhu yemithi, iphazamise inqubo yokukhiqiza, futhi ifake ubuthi ezigidini zamaphilisi ezokwelapha noma ikhiphe ukuqubuka okubulalayo kwegciwane elithile elikhulu.

    Okokuqala, inketho yenuzi ivaliwe. Amakhompiyutha anamandla esimanje nawesikhathi esizayo ahlala akhiwe eduze kwezikhungo (amadolobha) ethonya ngaphakathi kwanoma yiliphi izwe, okungukuthi okuqondiwe kokuqala ukuhlaselwa nganoma iyiphi impi ethile. Ngisho noma amakhompiyutha amakhulu anamuhla ancipha aze afike kusayizi wamadeskithophu, lawa ma-ASI asazoba khona ngokomzimba, okusho ukuthi abe khona futhi akhule, adinga ukufinyelela okungaphazamiseki kudatha, amandla ekhompyutha, ugesi, nezinye izinto zokusetshenziswa, konke okungaba nzima kakhulu. umonakalo ngemva kwempi yenuzi yomhlaba wonke. (Uma sikhuluma iqiniso, uma i-ASI idalwe ngaphandle 'kwemvelo yokusinda,' khona-ke lolu songo lwenuzi luyingozi yangempela.)

    Lokhu kusho—futhi, kucatshangwa ukuthi i-ASI ihlelelwe ukuzivikela—ukuthi izosebenza ngenkuthalo ukugwema noma isiphi isigameko esiyinhlekelele yenuzi. Uhlobo olufana nemfundiso yokubhujiswa okuqinisekisiwe (MAD), kodwa isetshenziswe ku-AI.

    Futhi endabeni yamaphilisi anoshevu, mhlawumbe abantu abangamakhulu ambalwa bazofa, kodwa izinhlelo zesimanje zokuphepha kwemithi zizobona amabhodlela amaphilisi angcolile ekhishwa emashalofini phakathi nezinsuku. Khonamanjalo, izindlela zesimanje zokulawula ukubheduka kwezifo ziyinkimbinkimbi futhi ziba ngcono unyaka ngamunye odlulayo; ukugqashuka okukhulu kokugcina, ukugqashuka kwe-Ebola eNtshonalanga Afrika yango-2014, akuzange kube ngaphezu kwezinyanga ezimbalwa emazweni amaningi futhi ngaphansi kweminyaka emithathu emazweni angathuthukile kangako.

    Ngakho-ke, uma kuyinhlanhla, i-ASI ingase isule izigidi ezimbalwa ngokuqubuka kwegciwane, kodwa emhlabeni wezigidigidi eziyisishiyagalolunye ngo-2045, lokho bekungaba yinto engasho lutho futhi engafanele ubungozi bokususwa.

    Ngamanye amazwi, unyaka ngamunye odlulayo, umhlaba uthuthukisa izivikelo ezengeziwe ezinhlobonhlobo ezilokhu zikhula njalo zezinsongo ezingase zibe khona. I-ASI ingenza inani elikhulu lomonakalo, kodwa ngeke iqede ubuntu ngaphandle uma sisiza ngokukhuthele ukwenza kanjalo.

    Ukuvikela ngokumelene nobuhlakani bokwenziwa obukhohlakele

    Kuleli qophelo, sesikhulume ngemibono eyiphutha nehaba mayelana nama-ASI, kodwa abagxeki basazoqhubeka. Ngokujabulisayo, ngokwezilinganiso eziningi, sinamashumi eminyaka ngaphambi kokuthi i-ASI yokuqala ingene emhlabeni wethu. Futhi uma kubhekwa inani lezingqondo ezinhle ezisebenza manje kule nselele, amathuba okuthi sizofunda ukuzivikela kuma-ASI akhohlakele ukuze sizuze kuzo zonke izixazululo i-ASI enobungani engasidalela yona.

    Ngokombono we-Quantumrun, ukuvikela esimweni esibi kakhulu se-ASI kuzobandakanya ukuvumelanisa izintshisekelo zethu nama-ASI.

    I-MAD ye-AI: Ukuvikela ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu, izizwe zidinga (1) ukudala 'umuzwa ongokwemvelo wokusinda' kuma-ASI azo ezempi; (2) yazise i-ASI yabo yezempi eyahlukene ukuthi ababodwa emhlabeni, futhi (3) bathole wonke amakhompuyutha amakhulu kanye nezikhungo zeseva ezingasekela i-ASI eduze nogu ekufinyeleleni kalula kwanoma yikuphi ukuhlasela kwe-ballistic okuvela esizweni esiyizitha. Lokhu kuzwakala kuwuhlanya, kepha kufana nemfundiso ye-Mutually Assured Destruction evimbe impi yenuzi phakathi kwe-US namaSoviets, ngokubeka ama-ASI ezindaweni ezisengozini, singasiza ekuqinisekiseni ukuthi zivimbela izimpi zomhlaba eziyingozi kuphela, hhayi kuphela bavikele ukuthula komhlaba wonke kodwa nabo ngokwabo.

    Amalungelo e-AI asemthethweni: Ubuhlakani obuphakeme nakanjani buzovukela inkosi ephansi, yingakho kudingeka sisuke ekufuneni ubudlelwano benceku eyinhloko nalawa ma-ASI siye kokuthile okufana nokubambiswano okuzuzisayo. Isinyathelo esihle esibheke kulo mgomo ukunikeza isimo sesikhathi esizayo se-ASI sobuntu esibaqaphela njengezidalwa eziphilayo ezihlakaniphile nawo wonke amalungelo ahambisana nalokho.

    Isikole se-ASI: Noma yisiphi isihloko noma ubungcweti kuzoba lula ukuthi i-ASI ifunde, kodwa izifundo ezibaluleke kakhulu esifuna ukuthi i-ASI ibe yingcweti ezokuziphatha nokuziphatha. Abacwaningi be-AI badinga ukusebenzisana nezazi zokusebenza kwengqondo ukuze bakhe uhlelo olubonakalayo lokuqeqesha i-ASI ukuze izibonele yona ngokwayo izimiso zokuziphatha ezinhle nokuziphatha ngaphandle kwesidingo sokufaka amakhodi okunzima kwanoma yiluphi uhlobo lomyalo noma umthetho.

    Imigomo efinyelelekayo: Qeda yonke inzondo. Qeda konke ukuhlupheka. Lezi izibonelo zezinhloso ezididayo ezesabekayo ezingenaso isixazululo esicacile. Futhi ziyimigomo eyingozi yokunikeza i-ASI njengoba ingase ikhethe ukuyihumusha nokuyixazulula ngezindlela eziyingozi ekuphileni komuntu. Esikhundleni salokho, sidinga ukunika i-ASI imisebenzi enenjongo echazwe ngokucacile, eyenziwa kancane kancane futhi efinyelelekayo uma kubhekwa ubuhlakani bayo besikhathi esizayo. Ukudala imisebenzi echazwe kahle ngeke kube lula, kodwa uma ibhalwe ngokucabangela, izogxila i-ASI emgomweni ongagcini nje ukugcina isintu siphephile, kodwa othuthukisa isimo somuntu kubo bonke.

    Ukubethela kwe-Quantum: Sebenzisa i-ANI ethuthukisiwe (ubuhlakani bokwenziwa obuncane uhlelo oluchazwe esahlukweni sokuqala) ukwakha amasistimu okuvikela edijithali angenaphutha/angenaziphazamisi ezizungeze ingqalasizinda yethu ebalulekile nezikhali, bese iwavikela ngokwengeziwe ngemva kokubethela kwe-quantum okungenakugqekezwa ukuhlasela kwebutho elinonya. 

    Iphilisi lokuzibulala le-ANI. Dala uhlelo oluthuthukisiwe lwe-ANI okuwukuphela kwenhloso yalo ukufuna nokucekela phansi i-ASI ekhohlakele. Lezi zinhlelo zenhloso eyodwa zizosebenza "njengenkinobho yokuvala" okuthi, uma iphumelele, izogwema ohulumeni noma amasosha ukuthi akhubaze noma aqhumise izakhiwo ezihlala ama-ASI.

    Yebo, lena imibono yethu nje. I-infographic elandelayo idalwe ngu U-Alexey Turchin, ukubona ngeso lengqondo a ucwaningo iphepha ngu-Kaj Sotala kanye no-Roman V. Yampolskiy, abafingqa uhlu lwamanje lwamasu abacwaningi be-AI abawacabangelayo uma kuziwa ekuvikeleni ngokumelene ne-ASI ekhohlakele.

     

    Isizathu sangempela sesaba ubuhlakani bokwenziwa

    Ngokuhamba kwempilo, abaningi bethu bagqoka imaski efihla noma ecindezela izifiso zethu ezijulile, izinkolelo kanye nokwesaba ukuze sihlanganyele kangcono futhi sisebenzisane ngaphakathi kwemibuthano ehlukahlukene yezenhlalo nomsebenzi ebusa izinsuku zethu. Kodwa ezikhathini ezithile empilweni yawo wonke umuntu, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi okwesikhashana noma unomphela, kukhona okwenzekayo okusivumela ukuba sigqashule amaketanga futhi sikhumule imaski yethu.

    Kwabanye, la mandla angenelelayo angaba lula njengokuphakama noma ukuphuza kakhulu. Kwabanye, kungase kuvele emandleni atholwe ngokuphromotha emsebenzini noma ukungqubuzana okungazelelwe kwesimo sakho senhlalo ngenxa yokufeza okuthile. Futhi kwabambalwa abanenhlanhla, kungavela ekutholeni isikebhe semali yelotho. Futhi yebo, imali, amandla, nezidakamizwa ngokuvamile kungenzeka ndawonye. 

    Iphuzu liwukuthi, okuhle noma okubi, noma ngabe singobani emnyombweni uyakhuliswa lapho imingcele yempilo incibilika.

    Lokho yilokho okushiwo ubuhlakani bokwenziwa ohlotsheni lwabantu—ikhono lokuncibilikisa imikhawulo yobuhlakani bethu obuhlangene ukuze sinqobe noma iyiphi inselele yezinga lezinhlobo zezilwane eyethulwa phambi kwethu.

    Ngakho-ke umbuzo wangempela uwukuthi: Uma i-ASI yokuqala isikhulula ekulinganiselweni kwethu, sizoziveza ukuthi singobani?

    Uma thina njengohlobo lwezilwane sisebenzela ekuthuthukisweni kozwelo, inkululeko, ubulungisa, kanye nenhlalakahle ehlangene, khona-ke imigomo esibekela i-ASI yethu kuyo izobonisa lezo zimfanelo ezinhle.

    Uma thina njengezilwane senza ngenxa yokwesaba, ukungathembani, ukuqoqwa kwamandla nezinsiza, khona-ke i-ASI esiyidalayo izoba mnyama njengalezo ezitholakala ezindabeni zethu ezimbi kakhulu ezesabekayo ze-sci-fi.

    Ekupheleni kosuku, thina njengomphakathi sidinga ukuba abantu abangcono uma sithemba ukudala i-AI engcono.

    Ikusasa lochungechunge lwe-Artificial Intelligence

    I-Artificial Intelligence ingugesi wakusasa: Ikusasa le-Artificial Intelligence series P1

    I-Artificial General Intelligence yokuqala izowushintsha kanjani umphakathi: Ikusasa lochungechunge lwe-Artificial Intelligence P2

    Sizoludala kanjani uchungechunge lokuqala lwe-Artificial Superintelligenc: Ikusasa lobuhlakani be-Artificial Intelligence P3

    Ngabe i-Artificial Superintelligence izoqeda isintu: Ikusasa lochungechunge lwe-Artificial Intelligence P4

    Ingabe abantu bazophila ngokuthula esikhathini esizayo esibuswa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa?: Ikusasa lochungechunge lwe-Artificial Intelligence P6

    Isibuyekezo esilandelayo esihleliwe salesi sibikezelo

    2023-04-27

    Izithenjwa zesibikezelo

    Izixhumanisi ezilandelayo ezidumile nezikhungo zibhekiselwe kulesi sibikezelo:

    Sifika kanjani kokulandelayo

    Izixhumanisi ezilandelayo ze-Quantumrun zibalulwe kulesi sibikezelo: