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Inani eliphakeme likawoyela oshibhile libangela inkathi evuselelekayo: Ikusasa Lamandla P2

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 09:39

Awukwazi ukukhuluma ngamandla ngaphandle kokukhuluma ngamafutha (petroleum). Kuwumgogodla wempilo yomphakathi wethu wanamuhla. Eqinisweni, umhlaba njengoba siwazi namuhla ubungeke ube khona ngaphandle kwawo. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwawo-1900, ukudla kwethu, imikhiqizo yethu yabathengi, izimoto zethu, nakho konke okuphakathi, kunikwe amandla noma kukhiqizwe ngokuphelele kusetshenziswa uwoyela.

Nokho njengoba lo mthombo ubuwunkulunkulu wokuthuthukiswa komuntu, izindleko zawo endaweni yethu manje seziqala ukusongela ikusasa lethu elihlangene. Phezu kwalokho, kuphinde kube yinsiza esiqala ukuphela.

Siphile enkathini kawoyela emakhulwini amabili eminyaka adlule, kodwa manje sekuyisikhathi sokuqonda ukuthi kungani efika ekupheleni (oh, futhi asikwenze ngaphandle kokukhuluma ngokushintsha kwesimo sezulu njengoba lokho sekukhulunywe ngakho ukufa manje).

Iyini i-Peak Oil noma kunjalo?

Uma uzwa ngowoyela ophakeme, imvamisa ibhekisa ithiyori ye-Hubbert Curve kusukela kudala ngo-1956, nguShell geologist, M. King Hubbert. Umongo walo mbono uthi Umhlaba unenani elilinganiselwe likawoyela umphakathi ongawusebenzisela izidingo zawo zamandla. Lokhu kunengqondo njengoba, ngeshwa, asiphili ezweni lemilingo ye-elven lapho zonke izinto zingenamkhawulo.

Ingxenye yesibili yethiyori ithi njengoba kunenani elilinganiselwe likawoyela emhlabathini, ekugcineni kuzofika isikhathi lapho sizoyeka khona ukuthola imithombo emisha kawoyela kanye nenani likawoyela esimunca emithonjeni ekhona "lizokhuphuka" futhi ekugcineni kwehle ku-zero.

Wonke umuntu uyazi ukuthi i-peak oil izokwenzeka. Lapho ochwepheshe bengavumelani khona nini kuzokwenzeka. Futhi akunzima ukubona ukuthi kungani kunenkulumompikiswano mayelana nalokhu.

Amanga! Amanani kawoyela ayehla!

NgoZibandlela wezi-2014, intengo ekhuphukayo kawoyela ongahluziwe yenyuka. Ngenkathi ihlobo lika-2014 labona uwoyela undiza ngentengo elinganiselwa ku-$115 emgqonyeni ngamunye, ubusika obulandelayo bawubona wehla wafinyelela ku-$60, ngaphambi kokuthi wehle cishe ku-$34 ekuqaleni kuka-2016.

Ochwepheshe abahlukahlukene bahlolisisa izizathu ezenze lokhu kuwa—I-Economist, ikakhulukazi, ibone ukwehla kwentengo kwakungenxa yezizathu ezihlukahlukene, okuhlanganisa umnotho obuthakathaka, izimoto ezisebenza kahle kakhulu, ukuqhubeka nokuphuma kukawoyela eMpumalanga Ephakathi enezinkinga, kanye ukuqhuma kokukhiqizwa kukawoyela wase-US ngenxa yokunyuka kwe ukukhwabanisa.

Lezi zenzakalo zikhanyisele iqiniso elingalungile: uwoyela ophezulu, ngokwencazelo yawo evamile, ngeke kwenzeke noma nini maduze. Siseneminye iminyaka eyi-100 kawoyela esele emhlabeni uma besiwufuna ngempela—okubambekayo wukuthi, kuzodingeka sisebenzise ubuchwepheshe nezinqubo ezibizayo kakhulu ukuze siwukhiphe. Njengoba amanani kawoyela emhlabeni ezinza ekupheleni kuka-2016 futhi eqala ukukhuphuka futhi, kuzodingeka sibuyekeze futhi silinganisele incazelo yethu kawoyela ophakeme.

Empeleni, kufana nePeak Cheap Oil

Kusukela ekuqaleni kweminyaka yawo-2000, amanani omhlaba kawoyela ongahluziwe aye akhuphuka kancane kancane cishe unyaka nonyaka, ngaphandle kokuthi kube yinkinga yezimali ka-2008-09 kanye nokuphahlazeka okungaqondakali kowezi-2014-15. Kodwa intengo ishayisa eceleni, inkambiso iyonke ayinakuphikwa: uwoyela ongahluziwe usubiza kakhulu.

Isizathu esiyinhloko salokhu kukhuphuka ukukhathala kwezinqolobane zikawoyela ezishibhile emhlabeni (uwoyela oshibhile uwoyela ongamuncwa kalula emanzini amakhulu angaphansi komhlaba). Okuningi okusele namuhla uwoyela ongakhishwa ngezindlela ezibiza kakhulu. Slate ishicilele igrafu (ngezansi) ebonisa ukuthi kubizani ukukhiqiza uwoyela kusuka kule mithombo ehlukahlukene ebizayo nokuthi uwoyela kufanele ube ngaliphi inani ngaphambi kokumba uwoyela uthe unamandla ngokwezomnotho:

Njengoba amanani kawoyela ebuya (futhi azobuya), le mithombo kawoyela ebizayo izobuya ku-inthanethi, igcwale imakethe ngowoyela obiza kakhulu. Eqinisweni, akuwona uwoyela ophakeme we-geological okudingeka sisabe-lokho ngeke kwenzeke emashumini amaningi eminyaka ezayo-okudingeka sikwesabe ukuthi isiqongo amafutha ezishibhile. Kuzokwenzekani uma sesifike ezingeni lapho abantu kanye namazwe ewonke bengasakwazi ukukhokhela uwoyela ngokweqile?

'Kodwa kuthiwani nge-fracking?' uyabuza. 'Lobu buchwepheshe ngeke yini bugcine izindleko zehla unomphela?'

Yebo futhi cha. Ubuchwepheshe obusha bokumba uwoyela buhlala buholela ekuzuzweni kokukhiqiza, kodwa lezi zinzuzo nazo zihlala zesikhashana. Uma kwenzeka kuba ukukhwabanisa, indawo ngayinye entsha yokumba ikhiqiza i-bonanza kawoyela ekuqaleni, kodwa ngokwesilinganiso, phakathi neminyaka emithathu, amazinga okukhiqiza asuka kuleyo bonanza ehla ngamaphesenti afika kwangu-85. Ekugcineni, i-fracking ibe yisisombululo esihle kakhulu sesikhathi esifushane sentengo ephezulu kawoyela (inganaki iqiniso lokuthi ifaka ubuthi emanzini angaphansi komhlaba nokwenza imiphakathi eminingi yase-US iyagula), kodwa ngokusho kwesazi sokuma komhlaba saseCanada uDavid Hughes, ukukhiqizwa kwe-US kwegesi ye-shale kuzokhuphuka cishe ngo-2017 futhi kubuyele emazingeni ka-2012 cishe ngo-2019.

Kungani kubalulekile uwoyela oshibhile

'Kulungile,' uzitshela, 'ngakho intengo yegesi iyakhuphuka. Intengo yakho konke ikhuphuka ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Lokho nje yi-inflation. Yebo, kuyangikhathaza ukuthi kufanele ngikhokhe imali ethe xaxa empompini, kodwa kungani lokhu kuyindaba enkulu kangaka?'

Izizathu ezimbili eziyinhloko:

Okokuqala, izindleko zikawoyela zifihliwe ngaphakathi kuyo yonke ingxenye yempilo yakho yomthengi. Ukudla okuthengayo: uwoyela usetshenziselwa ukwakha umanyolo, imithi yokubulala ukhula, kanye nezibulala-zinambuzane ezifuthwa emapulazini okutshalwe kuwo. Amagajethi akamuva owathengayo: uwoyela usetshenziselwa ukukhiqiza iningi lepulasitiki yawo nezinye izingxenye zokwenziwa. Ugesi owusebenzisayo: izingxenye eziningi zomhlaba zishisa uwoyela ukuze zigcine izibani zikhanya. Futhi ngokusobala, ingqalasizinda yezokuthutha yomhlaba wonke, ukuthola ukudla, imikhiqizo, nabantu ukusuka endaweni A ukuya endaweni B noma kuphi emhlabeni, nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, kuxhaswe kakhulu yintengo kawoyela. Ukwenyuka kwentengo kungazelelwe kungabangela ukuphazamiseka okukhulu ekutholakaleni kwemikhiqizo namasevisi othembele kuwo.

Okwesibili, umhlaba wethu usaxhumene kakhulu nowoyela. Njengoba kuphawuliwe ephuzwini elidlule, wonke amaloli ethu, imikhumbi yethu yezimpahla, izindiza zethu, izimoto zethu eziningi, amabhasi ethu, amaloli ethu amakhulu—konke kugijima kuwoyela. Sikhuluma ngezigidigidi zezimoto lapha. Sikhuluma ngayo yonke ingqalasizinda yezokuthutha yomhlaba wonke nokuthi konke kusekelwe kanjani kubuchwepheshe obuzophelelwa yisikhathi maduze (injini evuthayo) obusebenzisa insiza (uwoyela) manje ebiza kakhulu futhi eyanda ngamafuphi. hlinzeka. Ngisho noma izimoto zikagesi zigqama emakethe, kungase kuthathe amashumi eminyaka ngaphambi kokuthi zithathe indawo yemikhumbi yethu evuthayo. Sekukonke, umhlaba ubanjwe yi-crack futhi izoba yinja ukuze iphume.

Uhlu lokungajabulisi emhlabeni ongenawo amafutha ashibhile

Iningi lethu liyakhumbula ukuwohloka komnotho emhlabeni wonke ngo-2008-09. Abaningi bethu bayakhumbula futhi ukuthi ochwepheshe basole ukuwa kwebhamuza le-mortgage yase-US eqhumayo. Kodwa iningi lethu lijwayele ukukhohlwa okwenzekile ngaphambi kwalokho kubhidlika: intengo ye-crude yenyuka yaya cishe ku-$150 umphongolo ngamunye.

Cabanga emuva ukuthi yayinjani impilo ku-$150 emgqonyeni ngamunye nokuthi yonke into yabiza kangakanani. Kanjani, kwabanye abantu, kwabiza kakhulu ngisho nokushayela ukuya emsebenzini. Ungakwazi yini ukusola abantu ngokungazelelwe ukungakwazi ukukhokha izinkokhelo zabo zezindlu ngesikhathi?

Kulabo abangazange babhekane ne-embargo kawoyela ye-OPEC yango-1979 (futhi sibaningi bethu, masikhulume iqiniso lapha), u-2008 kwaba ukunambitheka kwethu kokuqala kwalokho esikuzwayo ukuphila ngaphansi kokucindezeleka komnotho—ikakhulukazi uma intengo yegesi ike yenyuka. ngaphezu komkhawulo othile, 'isiqongo' esithile uma uthanda. U-$150 umphongolo ngamunye uphenduke iphilisi lethu lokuzibulala ngokomnotho. Ngokudabukisayo, kuthathe ukwehla okukhulu komnotho ukuhudulela amanani entengo kawoyela emhlabeni wonke.

Kodwa lokho kukhahlela: $150 umphongolo ngamunye uzokwenzeka futhi phakathi nawo-2020s njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwegesi ye-shale evela e-US fracking kuqala ukwehla. Uma lokho kwenzeka, sizobhekana kanjani nokuwohloka komnotho okuzolandela nakanjani? Singena ohlotsheni lokufa kwabantu lapho noma nini lapho umnotho uqina, amanani kawoyela enyuka enyuka, kodwa uma ekhuphuka phakathi kwama- $ 150-200 umgqomo ngamunye, kuba nokuwohloka komnotho, okudonsela phansi umnotho kanye nentengo yegesi, kuphela ukuqala cubungula futhi. Hhayi lokho kuphela, kodwa isikhathi phakathi komjikelezo omusha ngamunye sizoncipha ukusuka ekuwohlokeni komnotho kuye ekuwohlokeni komnotho kuze kube uhlelo lwethu lwezomnotho lwanamuhla luthatha amandla ngokuphelele.

Ngethemba, konke lokho bekunengqondo. Ngempela, engizama ukukuthola ukuthi uwoyela uyigazi eligijima emhlabeni, ukuqhela kuwo kushintsha imithetho yomnotho wethu womhlaba. Ukuze ushayele leli khaya, nalu uhlu lwalokho ongakulindela emhlabeni ka-$150-200 ngomgqomo ongcolile:

Intengo yegesi izokhuphuka phakathi neminyaka ethile futhi inyuke kweminye, okusho ukuthi ezokuthutha zizoshisa amaphesenti akhulayo omholo wonyaka womuntu ovamile.
Izindleko zamabhizinisi zizokhuphuka ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali ezindlekweni zomkhiqizo nezokuthutha; futhi, njengoba izisebenzi eziningi zingase zingakwazi ukukhokhela uhambo lwabo lokuya emsebenzini olude, amanye amabhizinisi angase aphoqeleke ukuba ahlinzeke ngezinhlobo ezahlukene zendawo yokuhlala (isb. ezocingo noma imali yezokuthutha).
Konke ukudla kuzokhuphuka intengo cishe ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ngemuva kokukhuphuka kwentengo kaphethiloli, kuye ngesimo senkathi yokukhula lapho ukwanda kukawoyela kwenzeka.
Yonke imikhiqizo izokhuphuka intengo ngokuphawulekayo. Lokhu kuzobonakala ikakhulukazi emazweni ancike kakhulu ekuthengeni kwamanye amazwe. Ngokuyisisekelo, bheka zonke izinto ozithengile enyangeni edlule noma ezimbili, uma zonke zithi 'Made in China,' uzokwazi ukuthi isikhwama sakho semali singenxa yomhlaba wokulimala.
Izindleko zezindlu nezakhiwo eziphakeme zizoqhuma njengoba ukhuni oluningi nensimbi esetshenziswa ekwakheni kuthengwa kwamanye amazwe ngokuhamba amabanga amade.
Amabhizinisi e-E-commerce azothola i-punch to gut njengoba ukulethwa kosuku olulandelayo kuzoba okunethezeka okungathengeki kwesikhathi esidlule. Noma yiliphi ibhizinisi eliku-inthanethi elincike kusevisi yokudiliva ukuze ilethe izimpahla kuzodingeka libuyekeze iziqinisekiso zalo zokulethwa nezintengo.
Ngokunjalo, wonke amabhizinisi esimanje azobona ukwenyuka kwezindleko ezihambisana nokwehla kokusebenza kahle kwengqalasizinda yezokuthutha. Amasistimu okulethwa okufika ngesikhathi ancike emandleni ashibhile (uwoyela) ukuze asebenze. Ukwenyuka kwezindleko kuzokwethula uhla lokungazinzi ohlelweni, okungase kubuyisele izinto zesimanje emuva ngeminyaka eyishumi noma amabili.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali sekukonke kuzokwenyuka ngaphezu kwamandla ohulumeni.
Ukushoda kwezifunda zokudla kanye nemikhiqizo kuzovama kakhulu.
Intukuthelo yomphakathi izokhula emazweni asentshonalanga, ifake ingcindezi kosopolitiki ukuthi balawule intengo kawoyela. Ngaphandle kokuvumela ukuwohloka komnotho ukuthi kwenzeke, kuzoba nokuncane abangakwenza ukwehlisa intengo kawoyela.
Emazweni ampofu nalawo anemali ephakathi, ukucasuka komphakathi kuzophenduka izibhelu ezinodlame ezizoholela ekwandeni kwezigameko zomthetho wezempi, ukubusa kobushiqela, imibuso ehlulekile, kanye nokuntengantenga kwezifunda.
Ngaleso sikhathi, amazwe akhiqiza uwoyela angenabungane kangako, njengeRussia kanye namazwe ahlukahlukene aseMpumalanga Ephakathi, azojabulela insada yamandla ezombusazwe asanda kutholwa kanye nemali engenayo azoyisebenzisela izinjongo ezingezona izithakazelo zaseNtshonalanga.
Oh, futhi ukuze kucace, lolo uhlu olufushane nje lwentuthuko embi. Kwadingeka nginciphise uhlu ukuze ngigweme ukwenza lesi sihloko sicindezeleke kakhulu.

Lokho uhulumeni wakho azokwenza mayelana nenani eliphakeme likawoyela oshibhile

Mayelana nokuthi ohulumeni bomhlaba bazokwenzani ukuze bathole isibambo kulesi simo sikawoyela oshibhile, kunzima ukusho. Lo mcimbi uzothinta isintu ngezinga elifanayo nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Kodwa-ke, njengoba umphumela omkhulu kawoyela oshibhile uzokwenzeka ngesikhathi esifushane kakhulu kunokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, ohulumeni bazothatha isinyathelo ngokushesha kakhulu ukukuxazulula.

Lokhu esikhuluma ngakho ukungenelela kukahulumeni okushintsha umdlalo ohlelweni lwemakethe yamahhala ngezinga elingakaze libonwe kusukela kuWWII. (Ngeshwa, ubukhulu balokhu kungenelela kuzoba ukubuka kuqala kwalokho ohulumeni bomhlaba abangakwenza kukho ukubhekana nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu iminyaka eyishumi noma emibili ngemva kowoyela oshibhile ophakeme.)

Ngaphandle kokuchitha isikhathi, nalu uhlu lokushiwo ohulumeni bokungenelela may sebenzisa ukuvikela uhlelo lwethu lwamanje lomnotho womhlaba:

Abanye ohulumeni bazozama ukukhulula izingxenye zengcebo yabo kawoyela ukuze behlise amanani kawoyela wezizwe zabo. Ngeshwa, lokhu kuzoba nomthelela omncane njengoba amazwe amaningi agcina uwoyela ezohlala izinsuku ezimbalwa nje.
Ukulinganisa kuzobe sekuphoqelelwa-okufana nalokho okwasetshenziswa yi-US ngesikhathi sokuvinjelwa kukawoyela we-OPEC ngo-1979-ukuze kukhawulwe ukusetshenziswa kanye nokubeka abantu ukuthi bangone kakhulu ngokusetshenziswa kwabo kwegesi. Ngeshwa, abavoti abathandi kakhulu ukonga ngensiza eyayishibhile uma kuqhathaniswa. Osopolitiki abafuna ukugcina imisebenzi yabo bazokubona lokhu bese becindezela ezinye izinketho.
Ukulawulwa kwamanani kuzozanywa amazwe amaningana ampofu kuya kwanemali ephakathi ukuze kubonakale sengathi uhulumeni uthatha isinyathelo futhi uyalawula. Ngeshwa, izilawuli zentengo azisebenzi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi futhi zihlala ziholela ekushodeni, ukulinganisa, kanye nemakethe emnyama ekhulayo.
Ukwenziwa kwemithombo kawoyela kuzwelonke, ikakhulukazi kulawo mazwe asakhiqiza uwoyela kalula, kuzovama kakhulu, kukhubaze ingxenye enkulu yemboni Kawoyela Enkulu. Ohulumeni balawo mazwe asathuthuka akhiqiza ingxenye yengonyama kawoyela otholakala kalula emhlabeni kuzodingeka babonakale belawula imithombo yabo yezwe futhi bangase baphoqelele ukulawulwa kwentengo kawoyela wabo ukuze kugwenywe izibhelu ezweni lonke.
Inhlanganisela yokulawulwa kwamanani entengo kanye nokufakwa kuzwelonke kwengqalasizinda kawoyela ezingxenyeni ezihlukene zomhlaba kuzosebenza kuphela ukuqhubekisela phambili ukuntengantenga kwentengo kawoyela emhlabeni. Lokhu kungazinzi ngeke kwamukeleke emazweni amakhulu asethuthukile (njenge-US), azothola izizathu zokungenelela kwezempi ukuze avikele impahla ekhipha uwoyela yemboni yawo yangasese kawoyela phesheya.
Abanye ohulumeni bangase baphoqelele ukwenyuka okukhulu kwentela ekhona kanye nentsha eqondiswe kwabaphezulu (futhi ikakhulukazi izimakethe zezimali), abangasetshenziswa njengezimbuzi ezibhekwa njengokukhohlisa amanani entengo kawoyela ukuze kuzuze ngasese.
Amazwe amaningi athuthukile azotshala imali eningi ezinhlelweni zekhefu lentela kanye noxhaso lwezimoto zikagesi nengqalasizinda yezokuthutha zomphakathi, aphushe umthetho ogunyaza futhi uzuzise izinsizakalo zokwabelana ngezimoto, kanye nokuphoqa abakhiqizi bezimoto zabo ukuthi basheshise izinhlelo zabo zentuthuko yazo zonke izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi nezizimele. Sihlanganisa la maphuzu ngokuningiliziwe kwethi yethu Ikusasa Lezokuthutha chungechunge.

Kunjalo, akukho nokukodwa kwalokhu kungenelela kukahulumeni okungenhla okuzokwenza lukhulu ekudambiseni amanani entengo aphezulu empompini. Isinyathelo esilula kakhulu kohulumeni abaningi sizomane sibukeke simatasa, ukugcina izinto zizolile ngokusebenzisa amaphoyisa asekhaya asebenzayo futhi ahlome kahle, bese ulinda ukwehla komnotho noma ukucindezeleka okuncane kuqale, ngaleyo ndlela kubulale isidingo sokusetshenziswa nokubuyisela amanani kawoyela. phansi—okungenani kuze kufike ukukhuphuka kwentengo okulandelayo eminyakeni embalwa kamuva.

Ngenhlanhla, kunenhlansi yethemba eyodwa ekhona namuhla ebingatholakali ngesikhathi sokushaqeka kwentengo kawoyela ngo-1979 nango-2008.

Ngokuphazima kweso, okuvuselelekayo!

Kuzofika isikhathi, ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020, lapho izindleko eziphakeme zikawoyela ongahluziwe zizobe zingasabizi kakhulu ukuze umnotho wethu womhlaba usebenze kuwo. Lokhu kushintsha komhlaba jikelele kuzophusha ubudlelwano obukhulu (futhi ikakhulukazi obungekho emthethweni) phakathi kwezinkampani ezizimele kanye nohulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kutshalwe izizumbulu zemali ezingakezwakali emithonjeni yamandla evuselelekayo. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lokhu kuzoholela ekwehleni kwesidingo sikawoyela, kuyilapho okuvuselelekayo kuba umthombo omusha wamandla ohamba phambili emhlabeni. Ngokusobala, lolu shintsho olumangalisayo ngeke lwenzeke ngobusuku obubodwa. Kunalokho, kuzokwenzeka ngezigaba ngokubandakanyeka kwezimboni ezahlukene.

Izingxenye ezimbalwa ezilandelayo zochungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lamandla zizohlola imininingwane yalolu shintsho oluyingqophamlando, ngakho-ke lindela izimanga.