Ukuphela kwenyama ngo-2035: Ikusasa Lokudla P2

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Ukuphela kwenyama ngo-2035: Ikusasa Lokudla P2

    Kunesisho sakudala engasiqamba esihamba kanje: Ngeke ube nokushoda kokudla ngaphandle kokuba nemilomo eminingi ukuthi uphakele.

    Ingxenye yakho inomuzwa wokuthi isisho siyiqiniso. Kodwa akusona sonke leso sithombe. Eqinisweni, akulona inani eleqile labantu elibangela ukusweleka kokudla, kodwa uhlobo lwezifiso zabo. Ngamanye amazwi, ukudla kwezizukulwane ezizayo okuzoholela ekusaseni lapho ukusweleka kokudla kuzoba yinsakavukela.

    In the ingxenye yokuqala yalolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lokudla, sikhulume ngokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzoba nomthelela omkhulu kanjani enanini lokudla esitholakalayo emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Ezigabeni ezingezansi, sizonweba kuleyo threndi ukuze sibone ukuthi inani labantu elikhulayo labantu emhlabeni wonke lizoba nomthelela kanjani ezinhlotsheni zokudla esizokujabulela kumapuleti ethu okudla kwakusihlwa eminyakeni ezayo.

    Ukufinyelela inani eliphakeme labantu

    Ukholwa noma ungakholwa, kunezindaba ezinhle lapho sikhuluma ngezinga lokukhula kwenani labantu: Liyancipha ijubane lonke. Nokho, inkinga isalokhu iwukuthi umfutho wokwanda kwenani labantu emhlabeni wonke kusukela ekuqaleni, izizukulwane ezithanda izingane, uzothatha amashumi eminyaka ukuba uphele. Kungakho ngisho nokwehla kwezinga lethu lokuzalwa emhlabeni wonke, esibikezelwe inani labantu abangu-2040 kuyoba nje unwele phezu kwabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye. IZIGIDI EZIyisishiyagalolunye.

    Kusukela ngo-2015, okwamanje sihlezi ku-7.3 billion. Izigidigidi ezimbili ezengeziwe kulindeleke ukuthi zizalwe e-Afrika nase-Asia, kuyilapho inani labantu baseMelika naseYurophu kulindeleke ukuthi lihlale limile noma lizokwehla ezindaweni ezithile. Inani labantu emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke lifinyelele ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane eziyi-11 ngasekupheleni kwekhulu leminyaka, ngaphambi kokuba lehle kancane libuyele ekulinganeni okuqhubekayo.

    Manje phakathi kokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kucekele phansi ingxenye enkulu yendawo yethu yokulima yesikhathi esizayo kanye nenani labantu elikhula ngezinye izigidigidi ezimbili, uzobe ulungile ukucabanga okubi kakhulu—ukuthi ngeke sikwazi ukondla abantu abaningi kangako. Kodwa akusona sonke leso sithombe.

    Izixwayiso ezifanayo ezimbi zenziwa ekuqaleni kwekhulu lamashumi amabili. Ngaleso sikhathi inani labantu emhlabeni lalibalelwa ezigidini eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili futhi sasicabanga ukuthi yayingekho indlela esasingondla ngayo abengeziwe. Ochwepheshe abaphambili nabakhi benqubomgomo bangaleso sikhathi bancome uxhaxha lwezilinganiso zokulinganisa kanye nokulawula inani labantu. Kodwa qagela ukuthi yini, thina bantu abanobuqili sasebenzisa ama-noggins ethu ukusungula indlela yethu yokuphuma kulezo zimo ezimbi kakhulu. Phakathi kweminyaka yawo-1940 no-1060, uchungechunge lwezinhlelo zocwaningo, ukuthuthukiswa, kanye nokudluliselwa kobuchwepheshe kwaholela ekutheni Green Revolution eyasuthisa izigidi futhi yabeka isisekelo sensalela yokudla ejatshulelwa iningi lezwe namuhla. Manje yini ehlukile kulokhu?

    Ukudlondlobala kwamazwe asathuthuka

    Kunezigaba zokuthuthuka zamazwe asemancane, izigaba eziwasusa ekubeni yisizwe esimpofu aye ezweni elivuthiwe elijabulela isilinganiso esiphezulu semali engenayo ngomuntu ngamunye. Ezicini ezinquma lezi zigaba, phakathi kwezinkulu kakhulu, isilinganiso seminyaka yabantu bezwe.

    Izwe elinabantu abasebasha—lapho iningi labantu lingaphansi kweminyaka engu-30 ubudala—livame ukukhula ngokushesha kakhulu kunamazwe anabantu abadala. Uma ucabanga ngakho ezingeni elikhulu, lokho kunengqondo: Inani labantu abasha ngokuvamile lisho abantu abaningi abakwaziyo nabazimisele ukusebenza amaholo aphansi, imisebenzi yezandla; lolo hlobo lwezibalo luheha abantu bamazwe ngamazwe abasungula izimboni kula mazwe ngenhloso yokunciphisa izindleko ngokuqasha abasebenzi abashibhile; lokhu kugcwala kokutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe kuvumela amazwe amancane ukuthi athuthukise ingqalasizinda yawo futhi anikeze abantu bayo imali engenayo ukuze bondle imindeni yabo futhi bathenge amakhaya nezimpahla ezidingekayo ukuze bakhuphuke ngezinga lezomnotho. Siyibonile le nqubo kaningi e-Japan ngemva kwe-WWII, kwase kuba iNingizimu Korea, kwase kuba yi-China, i-India, izifunda ze-Southeast Asian Tiger, futhi manje, emazweni ahlukahlukene e-Afrika.

    Kodwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, njengoba izibalo zabantu nomnotho wezwe zikhula, futhi isigaba esilandelayo sokuthuthuka siqala. Lapha iningi labantu lingena eminyakeni yalo engu-30 no-40 futhi liqala ukufuna izinto thina baseNtshonalanga esizithatha kalula: iholo elingcono, izimo zokusebenza ezithuthukisiwe, ukubusa okungcono, kanye nazo zonke ezinye izinto umuntu angazilindela ezweni elithuthukile. Kunjalo, lezi zimfuno zenyusa izindleko zokwenza ibhizinisi, okuholela ekutheni abantu bamazwe ngamazwe baphume bayosungula izitolo kwenye indawo. Kodwa kungalolu shintsho lapho kuzobe sekusungulwe isigaba esiphakathi ukuze sisimamise umnotho wasekhaya ngaphandle kokuthembela ekutshalweni kwezimali kwangaphandle kuphela. (Yebo, ngiyazi ukuthi ngenza izinto zibe lula.)

    Phakathi kweminyaka yama-2030 no-2040, ingxenye enkulu ye-Asia (ngokugcizelela okuthile eShayina) izongena kulesi sigaba esivuthiwe sokuthuthuka lapho iningi labantu bayo lizobe lingaphezu kweminyaka engama-35 ubudala. Ngokukhethekile, ngo-2040, i-Asia izobe isinabantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezinhlanu, amaphesenti angu-53.8 kubo ayoba ngaphezu kweminyaka engu-35 ubudala, okusho ukuthi abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-2.7 bazongena enkingeni yezezimali yokuphila kwabo kwabathengi.

    Futhi kulapho esizozwa khona ukucindezelwa—enye yezinto ezifunwa kakhulu abantu abavela emazweni asathuthuka umklomelo wokudla kwaseNtshonalanga. Lokhu kusho inkathazo.

    Inkinga ngenyama

    Ake sibheke ukudla okudliwayo umzuzwana: Engxenyeni enkulu yamazwe asathuthuka, isilinganiso sokudla sihlanganisa kakhulu irayisi noma okusanhlamvu okuyisisekelo, okudliwa ngezikhathi ezithile amaprotheni abiza kakhulu ezinhlanzi noma imfuyo. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, emazweni athuthukile, ukudla okujwayelekile kubona ukudla okuphezulu kakhulu nokuvame kakhulu kwenyama, kokubili ngezinhlobonhlobo namaprotheni.

    Inkinga ukuthi imithombo yendabuko yenyama, njengenhlanzi nemfuyo-iyimithombo yamaprotheni engasebenzi ngendlela emangalisayo uma iqhathaniswa namaprotheni atholakala ezitshalweni. Ngokwesibonelo, kudinga amakhilogremu angu-13 (amakhilogremu angu-5.6) okusanhlamvu namalitha angu-2,500 9,463 (amalitha angu-XNUMX XNUMX) amanzi ukuze kukhiqizwe ikhilogremu elilodwa lenyama yenkomo. Cabanga ukuthi bangaki abantu abengeziwe abangaphakelwa futhi bafakwe amanzi uma inyama ibingakhishwa esilinganisweni.

    Kodwa ake sibe ngokoqobo lapha; iningi lomhlaba alisoze lakufuna lokho. Sibekezelela ukutshala imali eningi ngokweqile ekufuyweni kwemfuyo ngoba iningi lalabo abahlala emazweni athuthukile bayayiqakathekisa inyama njengengxenye yokudla kwabo kwansuku zonke, kuyilapho iningi lalabo abasemazweni asathuthuka babelana ngalezo zimiso futhi bafisa ukwandisa ukudla kwabo. ukudla inyama kukhuphuka isitebhisi sezomnotho esikhuphukayo.

    (Qaphela ukuthi kuzoba khona okuhlukile ngenxa yezindlela zokupheka zendabuko eziyingqayizivele, kanye nokwehluka kwamasiko nezinkolo zamazwe athile asathuthuka. I-India, isibonelo, idla inyama ephansi kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nenani labantu bayo, njengoba amaphesenti angama-80 ezakhamuzi zakhona edla inyama ephansi kakhulu. Hindu bese ukhetha ukudla kwemifino ngezizathu zamasiko nezenkolo.)

    I-crunch yokudla

    Njengamanje ungase uqagele ukuthi ngiya kuphi nalokhu: Singena emhlabeni lapho isidingo senyama sizodla kancane kancane ingxenye enkulu yemithombo yethu yokusanhlamvu yomhlaba.

    Ekuqaleni, sizobona intengo yenyama ikhuphuka ngokuphawulekayo unyaka nonyaka kusukela ngo-2025-2030—intengo yokusanhlamvu izokhuphuka nayo kodwa ngejika elikhuphuka kakhulu. Lo mkhuba uzoqhubeka kuze kube unyaka owodwa oshisa ngendlela eyisiphukuphuku ngasekupheleni kwawo-2030 lapho ukukhiqizwa kokusanhlamvu komhlaba kuzophahlazeka (khumbula esikufunde engxenyeni yokuqala). Uma lokhu kwenzeka, intengo yokusanhlamvu nenyama izokhuphuka kakhulu, okufana nenguqulo eyinqaba yokuphahlazeka kwezimali kwango-2008.

    Umphumela Wokuthuthumela Kwenyama ka-2035

    Uma lokhu kwenyuka kwezintengo zokudla kufinyelela ezimakethe zomhlaba, i-shit izothinta abalandeli ngendlela enkulu. Njengoba ungacabanga, ukudla kuwuhlobo lwento enkulu uma kungenakwanele ukuhamba, ngakho ohulumeni emhlabeni wonke bazothatha isinyathelo ngesivinini esinqunyiwe ukuze baxazulule le nkinga. Okulandelayo umugqa wesikhathi wephuzu lokukhuphuka kwentengo yokudla ngemva kwemiphumela, kucatshangwa ukuthi kwenzeka ngo-2035:

    ● 2035-2039 - Izindawo zokudlela zizobona izindleko zazo zikhuphuka eduze nohlu lwazo lwamatafula angenalutho. Izindawo zokudlela eziningi ezinamanani aphakathi nendawo namaketanga okudla okusheshayo azovala; izindawo zokudla okusheshayo ezisezingeni eliphansi zizokhawulela amamenyu nokwanda kancane kwezindawo ezintsha; izindawo zokudlela ezibizayo zizohlala zingathinteki kakhulu.

    ● 2035-kuqhubeke - Amaketanga egrosa nawo azozwa ubuhlungu bokushaqisa kwentengo. Phakathi kwezindleko zokuqasha kanye nokushoda kokudla okungapheli, izindawo zabo ezivele zincane zizoba ncane, kuthikameze kakhulu inzuzo; iningi lizohlala ebhizinisini ngezimali mboleko zikahulumeni eziphuthumayo futhi njengoba abantu abaningi bengakwazi ukukugwema ukuzisebenzisa.

    ● 2035 - Ohulumeni bomhlaba bathatha isinyathelo esiphuthumayo sokunikeza ukudla kwesikhashana. Amazwe asathuthuka asebenzisa umthetho wezempi ukuze alawule izakhamuzi zawo ezilambile nezivukelayo. Ezindaweni ezithile zase-Afrika, eMpumalanga Ephakathi, naseNingizimu-mpumalanga Asia, izibhelu zizoba nodlame kakhulu.

    ● 2036 - Ohulumeni bagunyaza uxhaso olubanzi lwembewu entsha ye-GMO ekwazi ukumelana nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu.

    ● 2036-2041 - Ukuzalaniswa okuthuthukisiwe kwezitshalo ezintsha ezixubile kuqinisiwe.

    ● 2036 - Ukuze kugwenywe ukushoda kokudla ezintweni eziyisisekelo ezifana nokolweni, irayisi, nesoya, ohulumeni bomhlaba baphoqelela izilawuli ezintsha kubalimi bemfuyo, balawule inani eliphelele lezilwane abavunyelwe ukuba nazo.

    ● 2037 - Zonke izibonelelo ezisele zama-biofuels zikhanseliwe futhi konke kuqhubeke ukulima kwe-biofuels kuvinjelwe. Lesi senzo sisodwa sikhulula cishe amaphesenti angama-25 okusanhlamvu okusanhlamvu kwase-US ukuze kudliwe abantu. Abanye abakhiqizi abakhulu be-biofuel abafana ne-Brazil, Germany, ne-France babona ukuthuthuka okufanayo ekutholakaleni kokusanhlamvu. Izimoto eziningi zisebenza ngogesi ngaleli phuzu noma kunjalo.

    ● 2039 - Imithetho emisha kanye noxhaso lwenziwa ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukuhanjiswa kokudla emhlabeni wonke ngenhloso yokunciphisa inani lemfucuza ebangelwa ukudla okubolile noma okonakele.

    ● 2040 - Ohulumeni baseNtshonalanga ikakhulukazi bangase babeke yonke imboni yezolimo ngaphansi kolawulo oluqinile lukahulumeni, ukuze balawule kangcono ukutholakala kokudla futhi bagweme ukuntengantenga kwasekhaya ngenxa yokushoda kokudla. Kuzoba nengcindezi enkulu yomphakathi yokuqeda ukuthunyelwa kokudla emazweni acebile athenga ukudla njengeChina kanye nezifundazwe ezicebe ngowoyela eMiddle East.

    ● 2040 - Sekukonke, lezi zinhlelo zikahulumeni zisebenzela ukugwema ukushoda kokudla okukhulu emhlabeni wonke. Amanani okudla okuhlukahlukene azinza, bese eqhubeka nokukhuphuka kancane kancane unyaka nonyaka.

    ● 2040 - Ukuze ulawule kangcono izindleko zasekhaya, inzalo yokungadli inyama izokhuphuka njengoba inyama yesintu (inhlanzi nemfuyo) isiba ukudla kwezigaba eziphezulu unomphela.

    ● 2040-2044 - Izinhlobonhlobo ezinkulu zamaketanga ezindawo zokudlela ze-vegan kanye nemifino ziyavuleka futhi zibe intukuthelo. Ohulumeni baxhasa ukukhula kwabo ngekhefu lentela elikhethekile ukuze bakhuthaze ukwesekwa okubanzi kokudla okungabizi, okusekelwe ezitshalweni.

    ● 2041 - Ohulumeni batshala uxhaso olukhulu ekwakheni amapulazi esizukulwane esilandelayo ahlakaniphile, aqondile, nangaphansi komhlaba. Kuleli qophelo, iJapan neSouth Korea bazobe bengabaholi kulezi ezimbili zokugcina.

    ● 2041 - Ohulumeni batshala izimali ezengeziwe zoxhaso kanye nezimvume ze-FDA ezisheshayo ezinhlobonhlobo zezinye izindlela zokudla.

    ● 2042-kuqhubeke - Ukudla kwesikhathi esizayo kuzoba nemisoco kanye namaprotheni, kodwa ngeke kuphinde kufane nokweqisa kwekhulu lama-20.

    Side note mayelana nezinhlanzi

    Kungenzeka ukuthi uqaphele ukuthi angizange ngikhulume izinhlanzi njengomthombo wokudla omkhulu phakathi nale ngxoxo, futhi lokho kungesizathu esihle. Namuhla, izindawo zokudoba emhlabeni wonke sezincishwa ngokuyingozi. Eqinisweni, sesifinyelele endaweni lapho iningi lezinhlanzi ezithengiswa ezimakethe zifuywa emathangeni asemhlabeni noma (okungcono kancane) amakheji olwandle oluvulekile. Kodwa lokho kumane kuyisiqalo.

    Ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yawo-2030, ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu kuzolahla ikhabhoni eyanele olwandle ukuze kukhule kube ne-asidi, kunciphise amandla azo okusekela ukuphila. Kufana nokuhlala edolobheni elikhulu laseShayina lapho ukungcola okuvela ezitshalweni zamandla amalahle kwenza kube nzima ukuphefumula—yilokho izinhlanzi zomhlaba kanye nezinhlobo zamakhorali zizobhekana. Bese kuthi uma ubheka ukwanda kwenani labantu bethu, kulula ukubikezela ukuthi izinhlanzi zomhlaba wonke zizogcina zivunwe zibe sezingeni elibucayi—kwezinye izifunda zizophonswa onqenqemeni lokuwohloka, ikakhulukazi eMpumalanga Asia. Lezi zindlela ezimbili zizosebenza ndawonye ukuze kwenyuse amanani, ngisho nezinhlanzi ezifuywayo, okungase kususe sonke isigaba sokudla ekudleni okuvamile komuntu ojwayelekile.

    Njengomnikeli we-VICE, u-Becky Ferreira, ngobuhlakani okushiwo: isisho esithi 'izinhlanzi ziningi olwandle' ngeke zisaba iqiniso. Ngokudabukisayo, lokhu kuzophinde kuphoqe abangani abakhulu emhlabeni wonke ukuthi beze nama-line-liners amasha ukuze baduduze ama-BFF abo ngemuva kokulahlwa yi-SO yabo.

    Ukubeka konke ndawonye

    Ah, awuthandi yini lapho ababhali befingqa izindatshana zabo zefomu elide—abagqilaze ngazo isikhathi eside kakhulu—esifinyezweni esifushane esilingana nokuluma! Ngonyaka wezi-2040, sizongena ekusaseni elinomhlaba omncane (wokulima) ongalimeki ngenxa yokushoda kwamanzi kanye nokukhuphuka kwamazinga okushisa okubangelwa ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, sinenani labantu emhlabeni wonke elizofinyelela ibhaluni kubantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye. Iningi lalokho kukhula kwenani labantu lizovela emazweni asathuthuka, izwe elisathuthuka elinotho yalo ezokhuphuka kakhulu eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo. Lezo zimali ezinkulu ezilahlwayo kubikezelwa ukuthi zizoholela ekwandeni kwesidingo senyama. Ukwanda kwesidingo senyama kuzodla ukudla okusanhlamvu emhlabeni wonke, ngaleyo ndlela kuholele ekuswelekeni kokudla kanye nokwenyuka kwentengo okungase kuthuntubeze ohulumeni emhlabeni wonke.

    Ngakho manje njengoba usuqonda kangcono ukuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kanye nokukhula kwenani labantu kanye nezibalo zabantu kuzolilolonga kanjani ikusasa lokudla. Okunye kwalolu chungechunge kuzogxila kulokho okuzokwenziwa isintu ukuze sisungule indlela yethu yokuphuma kulolu bishi ngethemba lokulondoloza ukudla kwethu okunenyama isikhathi eside ngangokunokwenzeka. Okulandelayo: Ama-GMO kanye nokudla okuphezulu.

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