I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

I-United States vs. Mexico: I-Geopolitics of Climate Change

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 10:59

Lesi sibikezelo esingesihle sizogxila kupolitiki yase-United States kanye ne-Mexican geopolitics njengoba ihlobene nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu phakathi konyaka ka-2040 kuya ku-2050. Njengoba uqhubeka ufunda, uzobona i-United States eya ngokuya ilondoloza, ibukeka ngaphakathi, futhi awuhlangene nomhlaba. Uzobona i-Mexico ephume endaweni ye-North American Free Trade Area futhi elwela ukugwema ukuwela esimweni sokwehluleka. Futhi ekugcineni, uzobona amazwe amabili okuzabalaza kwawo kuholela empini yombango eyingqayizivele.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale, ake sicacise ngezinto ezimbalwa. Lesi sithombe esifushane—leli kusasa lezwe lase-United States nase-Mexico—asizange sikhishwe emoyeni omncane. Konke osuzokufunda kusekelwe emsebenzini wezibikezelo zikahulumeni ezitholakala esidlangalaleni ezivela kokubili e-United States nase-United Kingdom, uchungechunge lwezikhungo zokucabanga ezizimele nezihlangene nohulumeni, kanye nomsebenzi wezintatheli ezifana no-Gwynne Dyer, a. umbhali ophambili kulo mkhakha. Izixhumanisi zemithombo eminingi esetshenzisiwe zibalwe ekugcineni.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, lesi sifinyezo sisekelwe nasemicabangweni elandelayo:

Ukutshalwa kwezimali kukahulumeni emhlabeni wonke ukuze kukhawulwe kakhulu noma kuhoxiswe ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzohlala kulinganisiwe kuya kokungekho.
Awukho umzamo owenziwe ngeplanethi ye-geoengineering.
Umsebenzi welanga welanga ayiweli ngezansi isimo sayo samanje, ngaleyo ndlela inciphisa amazinga okushisa embulunga yonke.
Awekho impumelelo ebalulekile eqanjwa ku-fusion energy, futhi akukho mali enkulu etshalwa emhlabeni wonke ekukhishweni kukasawoti emanzini kanye nengqalasizinda yokulima eqondile.
Ngonyaka wezi-2040, ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu kuzobe sekudlulele esigabeni lapho ukugcwala kwegesi ebamba ukushisa (GHG) emkhathini kwedlula izingxenye ezingama-450 ngesigidi.
Ufunda isingeniso sethu sokushintsha kwesimo sezulu kanye nemiphumela engemihle kakhulu esizoba nayo emanzini ethu okuphuza, ezolimo, amadolobha asogwini, nezinhlobo zezitshalo nezilwane uma kungekho zinyathelo ezithathwayo ngokumelene nakho.

Unalokhu kuqagela, sicela ufunde lesi sibikezelo sezulu esilandelayo ngomqondo ovulekile.

Mexico onqenqemeni

Siqala ngeMexico, njengoba isiphetho sayo sizohlangana kakhulu nese-US emashumini eminyaka ezayo. Ngeminyaka yawo-2040, kuzovela izitayela nezigigaba ezimbalwa ezibangelwa yisimo sezulu ezizophazamisa izwe futhi ziliqhubekisele onqenqemeni lokuba umbuso ohlulekile.

Ukudla namanzi

Njengoba isimo sezulu sishisa, imifula eminingi yaseMexico izoba mncane, kanjalo nemvula yayo yaminyaka yonke. Lesi simo sizoholela esomiso esinzima futhi esihlala njalo esizokhubaza umthamo wokukhiqiza ukudla kwezwe kuleli. Ngenxa yalokho, isifunda sizoncika kakhulu ekuthengeni okusanhlamvu okuvela e-US naseCanada.

Ekuqaleni, ngeminyaka yawo-2030, lokhu kuncika kuzosekelwa uma kubhekwa ukufakwa kweMexico esivumelwaneni sase-United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) esinikeza amanani akhethekile ngaphansi kwezinhlinzeko zohwebo lwezolimo zesivumelwano. Kodwa njengoba umnotho waseMexico untengantenga kancane kancane ngenxa yokwenyuka kokuzenzakalela kwe-US kunciphisa isidingo sabasebenzi baseMexico abaphuma ngaphandle, ukusetshenziswa kwayo okulokhu kukhula kokushoda ekuthengisweni kwezolimo kwamanye amazwe kungase kuphoqe izwe ukuthi lihluleke. Lokhu (okuhambisana nezinye izizathu ezichazwe ngezansi) kungase kubeke engcupheni ukuqhubeka kwe-Mexico ku-USMCA, njengoba i-US ne-Canada zingabheka noma yisiphi isizathu sokunqamula ubudlelwano ne-Mexico, ikakhulukazi njengoba kuqala ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu okubi kakhulu ngeminyaka yawo-2040.

Ngeshwa, uma iMexico inganqanyulwa kwizibonelelo zohwebo ezinhle ze-USMCA, ukufinyelela kwayo kokusanhlamvu okushibhile kuzoshabalala, kuphazamise ikhono lezwe lokusabalalisa usizo lokudla ezakhamuzini zalo. Njengoba izimali zikahulumeni ziphansi kakhulu, kuzoba nzima kakhulu ukuthenga ukudla okuncane okusele emakethe evulekile, ikakhulukazi njengoba abalimi base-US naseCanada bezogqugquzelwa ukuthi badayisele i-China amandla abo okungewona asekhaya phesheya kwezilwandle.

Izakhamizi ezixoshiwe

Okwengeza lesi simo esikhathazayo ukuthi inani labantu baseMexico abayizigidi eziyi-131 kulindeleke ukuthi likhule lifinyelele ezigidini eziyi-157 ngo-2040. Njengoba inkinga yokudla iba yimbi, ababaleki besimo sezulu (yonke imindeni) bazosuka ezindaweni eziwugwadule bayohlala emijondolo emikhulu emadolobheni amakhulu. enyakatho lapho usizo lukahulumeni lutholakala kalula. La makamu ngeke nje akhiwe abantu baseMexico, azophinde ahlalise ababaleki besimo sezulu ababalekele enyakatho eMexico bevela emazweni aseMelika Ephakathi njengeGuatemala ne-El Salvador.

Isibalo esingaka, esiphila kulezi zimo, asikwazi ukusimama uma uhulumeni waseMexico engakwazi ukuthola ukudla okwanele ukondla abantu bakhona. Yilapho izinto zizobhidlika khona.

Isimo esihlulekile

Njengoba amandla kahulumeni wobumbano wokuhlinzeka ngezidingongqangi encipha, namandla awo azowohloka. Iziphathimandla zizoshintshela kancane kancane kuma-cartels ezifunda kanye nababusi bezifundazwe. Kokubili ama-cartel kanye nababusi, abazolawula izingxenye ezihlukene zempi yezwe, bazovaleleka ezimpini zezindawo ezidonsiwe, belwela izindawo zokugcina ukudla nezinye izinsiza zamasu.

Kubantu abaningi baseMexico abafuna impilo engcono, kuzosala inketho eyodwa kuphela: ukubaleka bawele umngcele, babalekele e-United States.

I-United States izifihla ngaphakathi kwegobolondo layo

Izinhlungu zesimo sezulu iMexico ezobhekana nazo ngeminyaka yawo-2040 zizozwakala ngokungalingani nase-United States, lapho izifundazwe ezisenyakatho zizoba ngcono kancane kunezifunda eziseningizimu. Kepha njengeMexico, i-US izobhekana nokushoda kokudla.

Ukudla namanzi

Njengoba isimo sezulu sishisa, iqhwa phezu kweSierra Nevada kanye nezintaba zaseRocky lizoncipha futhi ekugcineni lincibilike ngokuphelele. Iqhwa lasebusika lizowa njengemvula yasebusika, ligeleze ngokushesha futhi lishiye imifula igwadule ehlobo. Lokhu kuncibilika kubalulekile ngoba imifula ephakela lezi zintaba iyimifula egelezela eCentral Valley yaseCalifornia. Uma le mifula ihluleka, ezolimo ngaphesheya kwesigodi, okwamanje ezikhula ingxenye yemifino yase-US, zizoyeka ukusebenza, ngaleyo ndlela zinciphise ingxenye eyodwa kwezine yokukhiqizwa kokudla kwezwe. Phakathi naleso sikhathi, ukwehla kwemvula endaweni ephakeme, emathafeni akhula okusanhlamvu entshonalanga ye-Mississippi kuzoba nemiphumela emibi efanayo ekulimeni kuleso sifunda, okuphoqelela ukuqedwa ngokuphelele kwe-aquifer yase-Ogallala.

Ngenhlanhla, ubhasikidi wokudla osenyakatho wase-US (i-Ohio, i-Illinois, i-Indiana, i-Michigan, i-Minnesota, ne-Wisconsin) ngeke ithinteke kabi ngenxa yezindawo zokugcina amanzi ze-Great Lakes. Leso sifunda, kanye nomhlaba olinywayo osemaphethelweni ogu olusempumalanga, kuzokwanela nje ukondla izwe ngokunethezeka.

Imicimbi yesimo sezulu

Ngaphandle kokuvikeleka kokudla, i-2040s izobona i-US ithola izehlakalo zesimo sezulu ezinodlame ngenxa yokukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle. Izifunda eziphansi ngaphesheya kolwandle olusempumalanga zizothinteka kakhulu, kanti izigameko zohlobo lweSiphepho u-Katrina zivame ukucekela phansi iFlorida kanye nayo yonke indawo yaseChesapeake Bay.

Umonakalo odalwe yilezi zehlakalo uzobiza ngaphezu kwanoma iyiphi inhlekelele yemvelo edlule e-US. Ekuqaleni, umongameli wesikhathi esizayo wase-US kanye nohulumeni wobumbano bazothembisa ukwakha kabusha izifunda ezicekeleke phansi. Kodwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, njengoba lezi zifunda ziqhubeka nokuhlushwa yizimo zezulu eziya ziba zimbi kakhulu, usizo lwezezimali luzosuka emizamweni yokwakha kabusha luye emizamweni yokuthutha. I-US ngeke ikwazi ukukhokhela imizamo eqhubekayo yokwakha kabusha.

Ngokunjalo, abahlinzeki bomshwalense bazoyeka ukunikeza izinsiza ezindaweni ezithinteke kakhulu ngenxa yesimo sezulu. Lokhu kuntuleka komshwalense kuzoholela ekufudukeni kwabantu baseMelika abasogwini olusempumalanga banqume ukuya entshonalanga nasenyakatho, ngokuvamile belahlekelwa ngenxa yokungakwazi ukuthengisa izindawo zabo ezisogwini. Inqubo izoba kancane kancane ekuqaleni, kodwa ukwehla ngokuzumayo kwezifunda eziseningizimu nasempumalanga akuyona into engekho. Le nqubo ingase futhi ibone iphesenti elikhulu labantu baseMelika liphenduka ababaleki besimo sezulu abangenamakhaya ngaphakathi kwezwe labo.

Njengoba abantu abaningi kangaka bephonswa onqenqemeni, lesi sikhathi sizophinde sibe yindawo yokuqala yokuzalanisa inguquko yezombangazwe, kungaba ngabakwezenkolo, abesaba ulaka lukaNkulunkulu lwesimo sezulu, noma abasuka kude kwesokunxele, abamele izinqubomgomo ezeqisayo zesocialism ukuze zisekele umbuso. isifunda esikhula ngokushesha sabantu baseMelika abangasebenzi, abangenamakhaya, nabalambile.

United States emhlabeni

Uma ubheka ngaphandle, ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zalezi zenzakalo zesimo sezulu ngeke kuphazamise isabelomali sikazwelonke sase-US kuphela kodwa nekhono lezwe lokulwela impi phesheya kwezilwandle. AbaseMelika bazobuza kufanele ukuthi kungani amadola abo entela esetshenziswa ezimpini zaphesheya kwezilwandle nasezinkingeni zobuntu lapho engasetshenziswa ekhaya. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngokugudluka okungenakugwenywa kwemboni ezimele ezimotweni (izimoto, amaloli, izindiza, njll.) ezisebenza ngogesi, isizathu se-US sokugxambukela eMpumalanga Ephakathi (uwoyela) sizoyeka kancane kancane ukuba indaba yokuphepha kwezwe.

Lezi zingcindezi zangaphakathi zinamandla okwenza i-US ibe nengozi kakhulu futhi ibukeke ngaphakathi. Izohlukana neMpumalanga Ephakathi, ishiye izisekelo ezimbalwa kuphela, kuyilapho igcina ukusekelwa kwe-Israel. Ukuxoxisana okuncane kwezempi kuzoqhubeka, kodwa kuzobandakanya ukuhlasela kwe-drone ngokumelene nezinhlangano zama-jihadi, okuzoba amabutho anamandla kulo lonke elase-Iraq, eSiriya naseLebanon.

Inselelo enkulu engase igcine amasosha ase-US esebenza kuzoba yi-China, njengoba ikhulisa umkhakha wayo wokuba nomthelela emhlabeni jikelele ukondla abantu bayo futhi igweme enye inguquko. Lokhu kubuyekezwa ku- Chinese futhi Russian izibikezelo.

Umngcele

Alukho olunye udaba oluzophazamisa abantu baseMelika njengodaba lomngcele wabo neMexico.

Ngo-2040, cishe amaphesenti angama-20 abantu base-US azobe edabuka e-Hispanic. Lokho ngabantu abangu-80,000,000. Iningi lalaba bantu lizohlala ezifundazweni eziseningizimu ezingomakhelwane nomngcele, izifunda ezazikade zingezaseMexico—iTexas, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, nezinye.

Lapho isimo sezulu sicindezela iMexico ngeziphepho nesomiso esingapheli, ingxenye enkulu yabantu baseMexico, kanye nezakhamuzi zamazwe athile aseNingizimu Melika, bazobheka ukubalekela emngceleni baye e-United States. Futhi ungawasola?

Ukube ubukhulisa umndeni eMexico odonsa kanzima ngenxa yokuntuleka kokudla, udlame lwasemgwaqweni, nezinkonzo zikahulumeni eziwohlokayo, ubuyocishe ungabi nasibopho sokuzama ukuwelela ezweni elicebe kakhulu emhlabeni—izwe lapho okungenzeka ukuthi unenethiwekhi ekhona kakade. yamalungu omndeni owandisiwe.

Cishe ungaqagela inkinga engiqonde kuyo: Kakade ngo-2015, abantu baseMelika bakhononda ngomngcele ovulekile phakathi kweMexico kanye neningizimu ye-United States, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokugeleza kwabantu bokufika ngokungemthetho kanye nezidakamizwa. Ngaleso sikhathi, izifundazwe eziseningizimu zigcina buthule umngcele ungekho amaphoyisa ukuze zisebenzise amathuba ashibhile aseMexico asiza amabhizinisi amancane aseMelika ukuthi enze inzuzo. Kepha lapho ababaleki besimo sezulu beqala ukuwela umngcele ngenani lesigidi ngenyanga, kuzoqhuma ukwethuka phakathi komphakathi waseMelika.

Yebo, abantu baseMelika bayohlale bezwelana nosizi lwabantu baseMexico kulokho abakubona ezindabeni, kodwa umcabango wezigidi eziwela umngcele, ukudla okumangalisayo kwezwe kanye nezinsizakalo zezindlu, ngeke ubekezelelwe. Ngengcindezi evela ezifundazweni eziseningizimu, uhulumeni wobumbano uzosebenzisa amasosha ukuvala umngcele ngenkani, kuze kube yilapho kwakhiwa udonga olubizayo nolwezempi oluwela ubude obugcwele bomngcele wase-US/Mexico. Lolu donga luzodlulela olwandle ngendlela yokuvinjwa okukhulu kweNavy ngokumelene nababaleki besimo sezulu abavela e-Cuba nakwezinye izifundazwe zase-Caribbean, kanye nokungena emoyeni ngendlela yokugada kanye nama-drones ahlaselayo agada ubude obugcwele bodonga.

Okudabukisayo ukuthi udonga ngeke lubamise ngempela laba babaleki kuze kube yilapho sekucaca ukuthi ukuzama ukuwela kusho ukufa okuthile. Ukuvala umngcele ngokumelene nezigidi zababaleki besimo sezulu kusho ukuthi kuzokwenzeka izigameko ezimbi lapho abasebenzi bezempi kanye nezinhlelo zokuzivikela ezizenzakalelayo zizobulala inqwaba yabantu baseMexico okuwubugebengu babo obuwukuphela kwethemba kanye nesifiso sokuwela kwelinye lamazwe ambalwa okugcina anenele nje. indawo yokulima ukuze yondle abantu bayo.

Uhulumeni uzozama ukucindezela izithombe namavidiyo alezi zigameko, kodwa zizoputshuka, njengoba ulwazi luvame ukwenza. Kulapho-ke kuzomele ubuze ukuthi: Bazozizwa kanjani abantu base-Hispanic baseMelika abangu-80,000,000 (iningi labo elizoba isizukulwane sesibili noma sesithathu izakhamizi ezisemthethweni ngeminyaka yama-2040s) ngokubulala amasosha abo ama-Hispanics, okungenzeka amalungu omndeni wabo owandisiwe, njengoba bewela umngcele. umngcele? Kungenzeka ukuthi ngeke kwehle kahle kakhulu ngabo.

Iningi lamaSpanishi aseMelika, ngisho nezakhamizi zesizukulwane sesibili noma sesithathu ngeke zamukele iqiniso lapho uhulumeni wabo edubula izihlobo zabo emngceleni. Futhi kumaphesenti angama-20 abantu, umphakathi waseSpain (ikakhulukazi owakhiwe abantu baseMexico-America) uzoba nenani elikhulu lezombangazwe nezomnotho ezifundazweni eziseningizimu lapho bazobusa khona. Umphakathi uyobe usuvotela inqwaba yosopolitiki base-Hispanic ezikhundleni ezikhethiwe. Ababusi baseSpain bazohola izifundazwe eziningi eziseningizimu. Ekugcineni, lo mphakathi uzoba yindawo yokwamukela izivakashi enamandla, ethonya amalungu kahulumeni ezingeni likahulumeni. Umgomo wabo: Ukuvala umngcele ngezizathu zokusiza abantu.

Lokhu kuphakama kancane kancane emandleni kuzodala ukuzamazama komhlaba, thina uma siqhathanisa nabo behlukana phakathi komphakathi waseMelika-okuyiqiniso elihlukanisayo, elizokwenza ukuthi izinhlangothi zombili ziqubuke ngezindlela ezinodlame. Ngeke kube yimpi yombango ngomqondo ojwayelekile waleli gama, kodwa indaba engenakuxazululeka engeke ixazululwe. Ekugcineni, iMexico izophinde iwubuyise umhlaba eyawulahlekela eMpini yaseMexico naseMelika ka-1846-48, konke ngaphandle kokudubula nokukodwa.

Izizathu zethemba

Okokuqala, khumbula ukuthi lokho osanda kukufunda kuwukubikezela kuphela, hhayi iqiniso. Kuphinde kube isibikezelo esilotshwe ngo-2015. Kuningi okungenzeka futhi okuzokwenzeka phakathi kwamanje nama-2040s ukubhekana nemiphumela yokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu (okuningi kwakho kuzovezwa esiphethweni sochungechunge). Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, izibikezelo ezichazwe ngenhla zingavinjelwa kakhulu kusetshenziswa ubuchwepheshe banamuhla kanye nesizukulwane sanamuhla.

Ukuze ufunde kabanzi mayelana nokuthi ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kungase kube nomthelela kanjani kwezinye izifunda zomhlaba noma ukufunda mayelana nokuthi yini engenziwa ukuze kunciphe futhi ekugcineni kuhoxiswe ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu, funda uchungechunge lwethu oluphathelene nokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu ngokusebenzisa izixhumanisi ezingezansi: