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Ukufa okuhamba kancane kwenkathi ye-carbon energy | Ikusasa Lamandla P1

ISIKWELETU SOMTHETHO: Quantumrun

Ukufa okuhamba kancane kwenkathi ye-carbon energy | Ikusasa Lamandla P1

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
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Amandla. Kuyinto enkulu. Nokho, yinto esingavamisile ukuyicabanga kakhulu. Njenge-inthanethi, uthuthumela kuphela lapho ulahlekelwa ukufinyelela kuyo.

Kodwa eqinisweni, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi afika esesimweni sokudla, ukushisa, ugesi, nanoma yiziphi izinhlobo zawo eziningi, amandla angamandla ashukumisayo abangela ukwanda komuntu. Ngaso sonke isikhathi lapho isintu senza uhlobo olusha lwamandla (umlilo, amalahle, uwoyela, kanye nelanga ngokushesha), inqubekelaphambili iyashesha futhi inani labantu liyakhuphuka.

Ungangikholwa? Ake sigijime ngokushesha emlandweni.

Amandla kanye nokwanda kwabantu

Abantu bokuqala babengabazingeli. Bakhiqiza amandla ama-carbohydrate ababewadinga ukuze baphile ngokuthuthukisa amasu abo okuzingela, bathuthukele endaweni entsha, futhi kamuva, ngokukwazi ukusebenzisa umlilo ukuze bapheke futhi bagaye kangcono inyama yabo abazingelwe kanye nezitshalo eziqoqiwe. Le ndlela yokuphila yavumela abantu bokuqala ukuthi bakhule baba yisibalo sabantu abangaba yisigidi emhlabeni wonke.

Kamuva, cishe ngo-7,000 BCE, abantu bafunda ukufuya nokutshala imbewu eyayibavumela ukuba bakhulise ama-carbohydrates (amandla). Futhi ngokugcina lawo ma-carbs ezilwaneni (ukondla imihlambi ngesikhathi sasehlobo nokuwadla ebusika), isintu sasikwazi ukukhiqiza amandla anele ukuze siqede ukuphila kwaso kokuzulazula. Lokhu kwabavumela ukuba bagxilise ingqondo emaqenjini amakhulu amadolobhana, amadolobhana, namadolobha; kanye nokuthuthukisa izakhi zobuchwepheshe kanye namasiko okwabelwana ngawo. Phakathi kuka-7,000 1700 BCE kuya cishe ngo-XNUMX CE, inani labantu emhlabeni landa laba yizigidi eziyinkulungwane.

Phakathi neminyaka yawo-1700, ukusetshenziswa kwamalahle kwaqhuma. E-UK, abaseBrithani baphoqeleka ukumba amalahle ukuze basebenzise amandla, ngenxa yokugawulwa kwamahlathi okukhulu. Ngenhlanhla emlandweni womhlaba, amalahle ashisa kakhulu kunokhuni, engagcini nje ngokusiza izizwe ezisenyakatho ukuba ziphile ebusika obunzima, kodwa futhi azivumela ukuba zikhulise kakhulu inani lensimbi azikhiqizayo, futhi okubaluleke kakhulu, ziphembelela ukusungulwa kwenjini yesitimu. Inani labantu emhlabeni wonke lakhula laba yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili phakathi kweminyaka yawo-1700 no-1940.

Ekugcineni, kwenzeka uwoyela (petroleum). Ngenkathi yaqala ukusetshenziswa kancane ngeminyaka yawo-1870 futhi yanda phakathi kwawo-1910-20s ngokukhiqizwa ngobuningi kweModel T, yaqala ukusebenza ngemva kweWWII. Kwakuwuphethiloli okahle wokuthutha owasiza ukukhula kwezimoto ekhaya futhi wehlisa nezindleko zohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe. I-Petroleum nayo yashintshwa yaba umanyolo oshibhile, imithi yokubulala ukhula, nezibulala-zinambuzane, okwathi ngokwengxenye, kwasungula i-Green Revolution, eyanciphisa indlala emhlabeni. Ososayensi bayisebenzisela ukusungula imboni yesimanje yemithi, basungula uhide lwemithi eyelapha izifo eziningi ezibulalayo. Osozimboni bayisebenzisela ukwakha uhla lwamapulasitiki amasha nemikhiqizo yezingubo. Oh yebo, futhi ungashisa amafutha ukuze uthole ugesi.

Sekukonke, uwoyela ubumele ibonanza yamandla ashibhile avumela isintu ukuthi sikhule, sakhe, futhi sixhase ngezimali izimboni ezintsha nentuthuko yamasiko. Futhi phakathi kuka-1940 no-2015, inani labantu emhlabeni liye laqhuma lafinyelela ngaphezu kwezigidigidi eziyisikhombisa.

Amandla kumongo

Osanda kukufunda kwakuyinguqulo eyenziwe lula yeminyaka engaba ngu-10,000 yomlando wesintu (wamukelekile), kodwa ngethemba ukuthi umlayezo engizama ukuwudlulisela ucacile: noma nini lapho sifunda ukulawula umthombo omusha, oshibhile, futhi omningi. amandla, ubuntu bukhula kwezobuchwepheshe, kwezomnotho, ngokwamasiko, kanye nezibalo zabantu.

Ngemva kwalesi sitimela somcabango, lo mbuzo udinga ukubuzwa: Kwenzekani lapho isintu singena ezweni elizayo eligcwele amandla avuselelekayo acishe abe mahhala, angenamkhawulo, nahlanzekile? Uzobukeka kanjani lo mhlaba? Izowumisa kanjani kabusha umnotho wethu, amasiko ethu, nendlela yethu yokuphila?

Lelikusasa (emashumini amabili kuya kwamathathu kuphela eminyaka) alinakugwenywa, kodwa futhi yilelo isintu esingakaze sibe nalo. Le mibuzo neminye izozama ukuphendula lolu chungechunge lwekusasa Lamandla.

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi sihlole ukuthi lizobukeka kanjani ikusasa lamandla avuselelekayo, kufanele siqale siqonde ukuthi kungani sishiya iminyaka yezinto ezimbiwa phansi. Futhi iyiphi indlela engcono yokwenza lokho ngaphandle kwesibonelo sonke esisijwayele, umthombo wamandla oshibhile, ochichimayo, futhi ongcole ngokwedlulele: amalahle.

Amalahle: uphawu lokuluthwa kwethu uphethiloli

Kushibhile. Kulula ukuyikhipha, ukuthumela nokushiswa. Ngokusekelwe emazingeni okusetshenziswa kwanamuhla, kuneminyaka engu-109 yeziqiwi eziqinisekisiwe ezingcwatshwe ngaphansi koMhlaba. Amadiphozithi amakhulu kunawo wonke asemazweni entando yeningi azinzile, ambiwa izinkampani ezithembekile ezinamashumi eminyaka okuhlangenwe nakho. Ingqalasizinda (izimboni zikagesi) sezivele zikhona, iningi lazo ezizohlala amashumi eminyaka ambalwa ngaphambi kokuba zidinga ukushintshwa. Ebusweni balo, amalahle azwakala njengenketho enhle yokuphatha umhlaba wethu.

Nokho, ine-drawback eyodwa: kunjalo engcolile njengesihogo.

Izitshalo zamandla aphehlwa ngamalahle zingomunye wemithombo emikhulu nengcolile kakhulu yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni engcolisa umkhathi wethu njengamanje. Yingakho ukusetshenziswa kwamalahle kwehla kancane engxenyeni enkulu yeNyakatho Melika naseYurophu—ukwakha amandla amaningi okukhiqiza amandla amalahle akuhambisani nezinjongo zokunciphisa ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni othuthukile.

Sekushiwo lokho, amalahle asephakathi kwemithombo emikhulu kagesi e-US (ngamaphesenti angu-20), i-UK (amaphesenti angu-30), i-China (amaphesenti angu-70), i-India (amaphesenti angu-53), nezinye izizwe eziningi. Ngisho noma singashintshela ngokuphelele ezintweni ezivuselelekayo, kungathatha amashumi eminyaka ukushintsha ucezu lwamalahle kaphayi wamandla olumele manje. Yingakho futhi amazwe asathuthuka emanqikanqika ukumisa ukusetshenziswa kwawo kwamalahle (ikakhulukazi iShayina neNdiya), njengoba ukwenza kanjalo kungase kusho ukushaya amabhuleki emnothweni wawo futhi kubuyisele amakhulu ezigidi ebuphofini.

Ngakho esikhundleni sokuvala izimboni zamalahle ezikhona, ohulumeni abaningi bazama ukuzenza zihlanzeke. Lokhu kuhilela ubuchwepheshe obuhlukahlukene bokuhlola obuzungeza umqondo wokubamba kanye nokugcinwa kwekhabhoni (CCS): ukushisa amalahle nokukhuhla igesi yokukhishwa kwekhabhoni engcolile ngaphambi kokuba ifinyelele emkhathini.

Ukufa kancane kwezibaseli ezimbiwa phansi

Nakhu okubambekayo: ukufaka ubuchwepheshe be-CCS ezitshalweni zamalahle ezikhona kakade kungabiza kufika kuhhafu webhiliyoni lamadola esitshalweni ngasinye. Lokho kungenza ugesi okhiqizwa kulezi zitshalo ubize kakhulu kunezitshalo zamalahle zendabuko (ezingcolile). “Kubiza malini?” uyabuza. I-Economist kubika endaweni entsha, yamadola ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-5.2 yase-US Mississippi CCS yokuphehla amandla amalahle, izindleko zayo ezimaphakathi nge-kilowatt zingu-$6,800—lokho uma kuqhathaniswa cishe ne-$1,000 evela embonini ephehla igesi.

Uma i-CCS ikhishwe kuwo wonke ama- 2300 izitshalo eziphehla amandla kagesi ngamalahle emhlabeni wonke, izindleko zingaba ngaphezulu kwesigidi sezigidi zamarandi.

Ekugcineni, ngenkathi ithimba le-PR lemboni yamalahle likhuthaza ngenkuthalo amandla e-CCS emphakathini, ngaphandle kweminyango evaliwe, imboni iyazi ukuthi uma ike yatshala imali ukuze ibe luhlaza, izobakhipha ebhizinisini-izonyusa izindleko. kagesi wabo kuze kube seqophelweni lapho okuvuselelekayo kuzoba yinketho eshibhile.

Kuleli qophelo, singasebenzisa ezinye izigaba ezimbalwa sichaza ukuthi kungani le nkinga yezindleko manje isiholela ekukhuphukeni kwegesi yemvelo esikhundleni samalahle—sibona ukuthi ihlanzekile ekushiseni, ayidali umlotha noma izinsalela ezinobuthi, isebenza kahle kakhulu, futhi ikhiqiza okwengeziwe. ugesi ngekhilogremu.

Kodwa eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo, amalahle akhona manje abhekene nengqinamba efanayo, igesi yemvelo nayo izoba khona—futhi iyindikimba ozoyifunda kaningi kulolu chungechunge: umehluko oyinhloko phakathi kwezinto ezivuselelekayo kanye nemithombo yamandla asekelwe kukhabhoni (njengamalahle). kanye nowoyela) ukuthi enye iwubuchwepheshe, kanti enye iwukubasa izinto ezimbiwa phansi. Ubuchwepheshe buyathuthuka, buba ishibhile futhi bunikeze inzuzo enkulu ngokuhamba kwesikhathi; kuyilapho ngamafutha ezinsalela ezimbiwa phansi, ezimweni eziningi, inani lawo liyakhuphuka, lintengantenge, liguquke, futhi ekugcineni liyehla ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.

Iphoyinti lokufika kuhlelo lomhlaba omusha wamandla

Unyaka wezi-2015 wawungunyaka wokuqala lapho umnotho womhlaba ukhule ngenkathi ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni kungakhulanga-lokhu kuhoxiswa komnotho kanye nokukhishwa kwekhabhoni ikakhulukazi kuwumphumela wezinkampani nohulumeni abatshala imali eningi ezintweni ezivuselelekayo kunokukhiqiza amandla asuselwa kukhabhoni.

Futhi lokhu kuyisiqalo nje. Iqiniso liwukuthi sisele ishumi leminyaka kuphela kubuchwepheshe obuvuselelekayo obufana nelanga, umoya, nobunye obufinyelela endaweni lapho buba inketho eshibhe kakhulu, esebenza kahle kakhulu. Leso phuzu lokuphetha lizomela ukuqala kwenkathi entsha ekukhiqizeni amandla, futhi okungenzeka, inkathi entsha emlandweni wesintu.

Emashumini ambalwa eminyaka ambalwa nje, sizongena emhlabeni ozayo ogcwele amandla avuselelekayo amahhala, angenamkhawulo, nahlanzekile. Futhi kuzoshintsha konke.

Ngokuqhubeka kwalolu chungechunge lwekusasa Lamandla, uzofunda okulandelayo: Kungani iminyaka yezibaseli ezingcolile ifika esiphethweni; kungani uwoyela kulindeleke ukuthi ubangele futhi ukuwa komnotho kule minyaka eyishumi ezayo; kungani izimoto zikagesi namandla elanga zizosiholela emhlabeni we-post-carbon; ukuthi ezinye izinto ezivuselelekayo ezifana nomoya kanye ne-algae, kanye ne-thorium yokuhlola namandla e-fusion, kuzothatha isekhondi eliseduze nelanga; bese ekugcineni, sizohlola ukuthi izwe lethu lesikhathi esizayo lamandla angenamkhawulo ngempela liyoba njani. (Ukusikisela: kuzobukeka kumnandi kakhulu.)

Kodwa ngaphambi kokuthi siqale ukukhuluma ngokujulile mayelana nezinto ezivuselelekayo, okokuqala kufanele sikhulume ngokungathí sina ngomthombo wamandla wanamuhla obaluleke kakhulu: amafutha.