Umkhuhlane ojwayelekile: Ngabe lesi ukuphela kwesifo esingapheli?

• About the Author:
• Igama lomlobi

  I-Quantumrun Foresight
• February 11, 2022

Isifinyezo sokuqonda

Amaphethini ashintshayo ezikhathi zomkhuhlane kanye nezinkinga zawo, okungenzeka ukuthi athonywe yizinyathelo ezithathwe ngesikhathi sodlame lwe-COVID-19 njengokuqhelelana komphakathi, ukugqokisa imaski, kanye nemikhuba eyanda yenhlanzeko, kubone ukwehla kwezifo zomkhuhlane kanye nokushabalala okungenzeka kwezinye izinhlobo. Ukwengeza, njengoba lezi zinguquko zithinta indlela ososayensi ababikezela futhi balwe ngayo nezinhlobo zomkhuhlane ezizayo, isimo somkhuhlane singashintsha, okubangele imithelela emikhakheni eminingi. Le mithelela isukela ekuthuthukisweni kwezempilo yomphakathi kanye nokwanda kokukhiqiza emsebenzini, kuya ekwehleni kokukhiqizwa komuthi wokugomela umkhuhlane okungase kuqondise kabusha ukugxila kwezemithi kugxile ezifweni ezikhethekile kakhulu.

Umongo ojwayelekile womkhuhlane

Minyaka yonke, izinhlobo ezahlukene zomkhuhlane zisabalala emhlabeni wonke, ngokuvamile ngenxa yephethini yesizini yokubanda kanye/noma ukoma. Ngokusho kweCenters for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), isikhathi somkhuhlane sivame ukuba phezulu phakathi kukaDisemba noFebhuwari unyaka ngamunye, okuholela ekuguleni okuyizigidi ezingama-45, ukulaliswa esibhedlela abangama-810,000, kanye nokufa kwabantu abangama-61,000. Ubhubhane lwango-2020 oludalwe yi-SARS-CoV-2 seluthelele okungenani abantu abayizigidi ezingama-67 futhi lwabulala abayizigidi eziyi-1.5 emhlabeni jikelele. Ngasekupheleni kwegagasi lokuqala le-COVID-19 emazweni amaningana, abasebenzi bezempilo babone ukuphela kwangaphambi kwesikhathi futhi kungazelelwe kwesizini yomkhuhlane ka-2019-20 eNyakatho Nenkabazwe.

Ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi lokhu kungenzeka ukuthi kudalwe abantu abambalwa abangena ezilungiselelweni zokunakekelwa kwempilo ukuze bayohlolwa kanye nezinyathelo ezisebenzayo zokulwa nobhubhane njengokugqoka imaskhi, ukuqhelelana nomphakathi, ukuhlanzeka kwezandla okuthuthukisiwe, kanye nokuhamba okulinganiselwe. Ukuhlolwa okuhle kwegciwane lomkhuhlane kwehle ngamaphesenti angama-98 e-US ngemuva kokuqala kobhubhane lwe-COVID, kanti isibalo samasampula athunyelwe ukuyohlolwa sehle ngamaphesenti angama-61. I-CDC ilinganise isizini yomkhuhlane ka-2019-20 e-US ngokuthi "elinganiselayo" ilinganisela ukuthi abantu abayizigidi ezingama-38 baguliswa umkhuhlane, kwathi abangama-22,000 bafa. 
 
Ososayensi banethemba lokuthi izinkathi zonyaka eziphazamisekile zizonikeza ulwazi olusha mayelana nokusulelana nokuziphatha kwegciwane lomkhuhlane. Ngo-2021, sonke isibalo sabantu siyaqhubeka nokugqoka imaski, ukugeza izandla njalo, nokuzihlukanisa ngokomzimba, ngakho-ke lezi zindlela zokuphepha zingasiza ukuthi umkhuhlane ungangeni nango-2021. Imithi yokugoma nayo inomthelela ekuvimbeleni ukutheleleka. I-CDC ibika ukuthi abantu baseMelika abaningi bathole imigomo yomkhuhlane kule sizini kunaseminyakeni emine edlule. Cishe abantu abayizigidi eziyi-193.2 babegonyelwe umkhuhlane ngoJanuwari 2021, uma kuqhathaniswa nezigidi eziyi-173.3 kuphela ngo-2020. 

Umthelela ophazamisayo 

Kuphinde kucatshangelwe ukuthi inkathi yomkhuhlane omncane ingase iqede izinhlobo zomkhuhlane ezingajwayelekile. Emhlabeni jikelele, ososayensi balandelela ukuguqulwa kwamagciwane omkhuhlane ngokuhlola amasampula ezigulini eziqinisekisiwe zomkhuhlane ezivakashela izibhedlela namahhovisi odokotela. Lokhu kuzivumela ukuthi zibikezele inqwaba yezinhlobo ezivamile ezizokwanda ngonyaka olandelayo bese benza imigomo yokulwa nalezo zinhlobo. Le nqubo iphindaphindwa kabili ngonyaka, kucatshangelwa iNyakatho neNingizimu ye-hemispheres. Kodwa-ke, akukho mkhondo wezinhlobo ezimbili zomkhuhlane odlangile okhonjiwe kusukela ngoMashi 2020: amagciwane omkhuhlane B ovela egatsheni lase-Yamagata kanye negciwane lomkhuhlane i-A H3N2 elaziwa nge-3c3. Ngenxa yalokho, kuyacatshangwa, kodwa akuqiniseki, ukuthi lezi zinhlobo kungenzeka seziphelile. 

Njengoba impilo e-US nakwamanye amazwe agonywe kakhulu igcina ibuyela kwesijwayelekile, amathuba okudluliswa komkhuhlane phakathi kwabantu azobuya nawo. Kodwa-ke, isimo samanje singenza ukubikezela ukuthi yiziphi izinhlobo ezizoqhuba isizini yomkhuhlane ibe lula ngoba kungase kube nokuncane ukuhlukahluka komkhuhlane okufanele sikhathazeke ngakho. Uma uhlu lozalo lwe-B/Yamagata luqedwa, imigomo yesikhathi esizayo ingase idinge kuphela ukuvikela ezinhlotsheni ezintathu eziyinhloko zegciwane, kunesu lezinhlobo ezine ezisetshenziswayo manje. 

Ngeshwa, ukungabikho kokuncintisana ngegciwane kubantu abangaba khona kungase kuvule indlela yezinhlobonhlobo ezintsha zomkhuhlane wezingulube esikhathini esizayo. Lawa magciwane ngokuvamile avinjelwa ukungatheleleki kwemvelo. Kungenjalo, uma izinga lomkhuhlane liphansi izinkathi ezimbalwa zonyaka, lokhu kungase kuvumele amagciwane ezingulube ukuthi abe nomthelela omkhulu.

Imiphumela yokuvela komkhuhlane ojwayelekile

Imithelela ebanzi yokuvela komkhuhlane ojwayelekile ingase ihlanganise:

• Ukukhuphuka kwezempilo yomphakathi jikelele, ukunciphisa ubunzima ezinhlelweni zokunakekelwa kwezempilo, ukukhulula izinsiza zokwelapha ezinye izifo.
• Ukwehla kwekhefu lokugula lesizini okuholela ekwandeni komkhiqizo ezindaweni zokusebenza, kukhuphule ukukhula komnotho.
• Ukukhushulwa emuva kokukhiqizwa kokugomela umkhuhlane, okuthinta izinkampani ezenza imithi ngokomnotho, njengomthombo omkhulu wemali engenayo yonyaka uyashabalala.
• Ushintsho embonini yezemithi luye ezifweni ezikhethekile kakhulu noma ezingavamile njengoba umkhuhlane ovamile ungasakuvumeli ukutshalwa kwezimali kocwaningo nentuthuko.
• Zimbalwa izehlakalo zomkhuhlane onzima kubantu abasengozini enomthelela ekwandeni kweminyaka yokuphila.
• Ukuncipha kwesidingo sempahla yezokwelapha ehlobene nomkhuhlane okuholela ekuncipheni kokulahlwa kwemfucuza, okuhlinzeka ngezinzuzo zemvelo ngokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwemfucuza.

Imibuzo okufanele icatshangelwe

• Uma umkhuhlane ungacishe uqedwe ngo-2021, ucabanga ukuthi kungenzeka ukulwa nomkhuhlane kalula kumasizini azayo?
• Yiziphi izinyathelo ocabanga ukuthi zisize kakhulu ukumisa ukubhebhetheka komkhuhlane ngesikhathi sodlame lwe-COVID?