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Dokar Moore mai dusashewa don haifar da ingantaccen tunani na microchips: Makomar Kwamfuta P4

David Tal, Mawallafi, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Talata, 09/15/2020 - 15:39

Kwamfuta - suna da wani babban abu. Amma don jin daɗin abubuwan da suka kunno kai da muka yi ishara da su zuwa yanzu a cikin shirinmu na gaba na Kwamfuta, muna kuma buƙatar fahimtar juyin juya halin da ke raguwa bututun lissafi, ko kuma a sauƙaƙe: makomar microchips.

Don samun asali daga hanya, dole ne mu fahimci Dokar Moore, sanannen doka a yanzu Dr. Gordon E. Moore wanda aka kafa a 1965. Ainihin, abin da Moore ya gane duk waɗannan shekarun da suka wuce shi ne cewa adadin transistors a cikin haɗin haɗin gwiwa ya ninka sau biyu. kowane watanni 18 zuwa 24. Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa kwamfutocin da ka saya yau akan $1,000 za su ci $ 500 shekaru biyu yanzu.

Fiye da shekaru hamsin, masana'antar semiconductor ta rayu har zuwa tsarin wannan doka, tana ba da hanya don sabbin tsarin aiki, wasannin bidiyo, bidiyo mai yawo, aikace-aikacen hannu, da duk sauran fasahar dijital da ta bayyana al'adunmu na zamani. Amma yayin da buƙatun wannan haɓakar ya bayyana kamar zai tsaya tsayin daka har zuwa wani rabin karni, silicon-kayan bedrock duk microchips na zamani an gina su da su - ba ya bayyana kamar zai dace da wannan buƙatar ta wuce 2021 mai tsawo - bisa ga rahoton karshe daga Taswirar Fasaha ta Duniya don Semiconductors (ITRS)

Ilimin kimiyyar lissafi ne da gaske: masana'antar semiconductor tana raguwar transistor zuwa ma'aunin atomic, sikelin siliki ba da jimawa ba zai dace da shi. Kuma yayin da wannan masana'antar ke ƙoƙarin rage silicon ta wuce iyakarta mafi kyau, mafi tsada kowane juyin halittar microchip zai zama.

Wannan shine inda muke a yau. A cikin ƴan shekaru, silicon ba zai ƙara zama abu mai tsada ba don gina ƙarni na gaba na ƙananan ƙananan ƙananan ƙananan. Wannan iyaka zai tilasta juyin juya hali a cikin kayan lantarki ta hanyar tilasta masana'antar semiconductor (da al'umma) don zaɓar tsakanin 'yan zaɓuɓɓuka:

Zaɓin na farko shine a sassauta, ko ƙare, haɓaka mai tsada don ƙara ƙarancin silica, don neman sabbin hanyoyin ƙirƙira microchips waɗanda ke samar da ƙarin ikon sarrafawa ba tare da ƙarin ƙaranci ba.
Na biyu, nemo sabbin kayan da za'a iya sarrafa su da ƙananan ma'auni fiye da siliki zuwa abubuwan da suka fi girma na transistor zuwa maɗaukakiyar microchips.
Na uku, maimakon mayar da hankali kan ƙaranci ko haɓaka amfani da wutar lantarki, sake mayar da hankali kan saurin sarrafawa ta hanyar ƙirƙirar na'urori masu sarrafawa waɗanda suka ƙware don takamaiman yanayin amfani. Wannan na iya nufin maimakon samun guntu na gaba ɗaya, kwamfutoci na gaba suna iya samun gungu na kwakwalwan kwamfuta na ƙwararrun. Misalai sun haɗa da kwakwalwan kwamfuta da ake amfani da su don inganta wasannin bidiyo zuwa Gabatarwar Google na guntuwar Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) wanda ya ƙware a aikace-aikacen koyon injin.
A ƙarshe, ƙirƙira sabbin software da kayan aikin gajimare waɗanda zasu iya aiki da sauri da inganci ba tare da buƙatar ƙananan microchips masu yawa/ƙarana ba.

Wane zaɓi masana'antar fasahar mu za ta zaɓa? Haqiqa: dukkansu.

Hanyar rayuwa don Dokar Moore

Jeri mai zuwa ɗan taƙaitaccen haske ne a cikin kusa-da kuma na dogon lokaci masu fafatawa a cikin masana'antar semiconductor za su yi amfani da su don kiyaye Dokar Moore a raye. Wannan bangare ya dan yi yawa, amma za mu yi kokarin kiyaye shi a iya karanta shi.

Nanomaterials. Manyan kamfanonin semiconductor, kamar Intel, sun riga sun sanar da cewa za su sauke siliki da zarar sun isa ma'auni na ƙaranci na nanometer bakwai (7nm). 'Yan takarar da za su maye gurbin silicon sun haɗa da indium antimonide (InSb), indium gallium arsenide (InGaAs), da silicon-germanium (SiGe) amma kayan da ke samun farin ciki ya bayyana kamar carbon nanotubes. An yi shi daga graphite - shi kansa tarin abubuwan al'ajabi, graphene-carbon nanotubes ana iya yin atoms mai kauri, suna da ƙarfi sosai, kuma ana kiyasin yin microchips na gaba har sau biyar cikin sauri nan da 2020.

Ƙididdigar gani. Ɗaya daga cikin manyan ƙalubalen da ke kewaye da ƙirar kwakwalwan kwamfuta shine tabbatar da cewa electrons ba su tsallake daga wannan transistor zuwa wani - la'akari da ke da wuyar gaske da zarar ka shiga matakin atomic. Fasahar da ke tasowa ta na'urorin kwamfuta na gani tana kama da maye gurbin electrons da photons, ta yadda haske (ba wutar lantarki) ke wucewa daga transistor zuwa transistor. a 2017, Masu bincike sun ɗauki babban mataki zuwa wannan burin ta hanyar nuna ikon adana bayanan tushen haske (hotuna) a matsayin raƙuman sauti akan guntu na kwamfuta. Amfani da wannan hanyar, microchips na iya aiki kusa da saurin haske nan da 2025.

Spintronics. Fiye da shekaru ashirin a cikin haɓakawa, transistors spintronic suna ƙoƙarin yin amfani da 'spin' na lantarki maimakon cajinsa don wakiltar bayanai. Duk da yake har yanzu yana da nisa daga tallace-tallace, idan an warware shi, wannan nau'in transistor zai buƙaci millivolts 10-20 kawai don aiki, sau ɗaruruwan ƙasa da transistor na al'ada; wannan kuma zai kawar da matsalolin zafi fiye da kima da kamfanonin semiconductor ke fuskanta yayin samar da ƙananan kwakwalwan kwamfuta.

Neuromorphic kwamfuta da memristors. Wata sabuwar hanya ta magance wannan rikicin da ke kunno kai yana cikin kwakwalwar mutum. Masu bincike a IBM da DARPA, musamman, suna jagorantar haɓaka wani sabon nau'in microchip- guntu wanda aka ƙera haɗe-haɗen da'irori don yin kwaikwayi tsarin kwakwalwar da ba ta dace ba kuma ba ta hanyar layi ba. (Duba wannan Labarin KimiyyaBlogs don ƙarin fahimtar bambance-bambancen da ke tsakanin kwakwalwar ɗan adam da kwamfutoci.) Sakamakon farko ya nuna cewa kwakwalwan kwamfuta da ke kwaikwayi kwakwalwa ba wai kawai sun fi inganci ba, amma suna aiki ta amfani da ƙarancin wutar lantarki da ba za a iya yarda da su ba fiye da microchips na yau.

Yin amfani da wannan tsarin ƙirar ƙwaƙwalwa ɗaya, transistor da kansa, ginshiƙin ginin microchip na kwamfutarka, na iya nan da nan za a maye gurbinsa da memristor. Yin amfani da lokacin "ionics", memristor yana ba da fa'idodi masu ban sha'awa da yawa akan transistor na gargajiya:

Na farko, memristors na iya tunawa da kwararar lantarki da ke wucewa ta cikin su-ko da an yanke wuta. Fassara, wannan yana nufin wata rana za ku iya kunna kwamfutar ku a daidai gudun da kwan fitilar ku.
Transistor sune binary, ko dai 1s ko 0s. Memristors, a halin yanzu, na iya samun jihohi iri-iri a tsakanin waɗannan matsananci, kamar 0.25, 0.5, 0.747, da dai sauransu. Wannan ya sa memristors aiki kama da synapses a cikin kwakwalwarmu, kuma wannan babban abu ne tun da zai iya buɗe kewayon kwamfuta na gaba. yiwuwa.
Bayan haka, memristors ba sa buƙatar silicon don yin aiki, buɗe hanya don masana'antar semiconductor don gwaji tare da amfani da sabbin kayan don ƙara rage ƙananan microchips (kamar yadda aka bayyana a baya).
A ƙarshe, kama da binciken da IBM da DARPA suka yi a cikin lissafin neuromorphic, microchips dangane da memristors suna da sauri, suna amfani da ƙarancin kuzari, kuma suna iya ɗaukar ƙimar bayanai mafi girma fiye da kwakwalwan kwamfuta a halin yanzu a kasuwa.

3D kwakwalwan kwamfuta. Microchips na al'ada da transistor da ke ba su iko suna aiki a kan wani lebur, jirgin sama mai girma biyu, amma a farkon shekarun 2010, kamfanonin semiconductor sun fara gwaji tare da ƙara girma na uku zuwa guntunsu. Ana kiran su 'finFET', waɗannan sababbin transistor suna da tashar da ke manne daga saman guntu, wanda ke ba su mafi kyawun iko akan abubuwan da ke faruwa a cikin tashoshin su, yana ba su damar gudu kusan kashi 40 cikin sauri, kuma suna aiki ta amfani da rabin makamashi. Rashin ƙasa, duk da haka, shine waɗannan kwakwalwan kwamfuta suna da matukar wahala (mai tsada) don samarwa a yanzu.

Amma bayan sake fasalin mutum transistor, gaba 3D kwakwalwan kwamfuta Hakanan yana nufin haɗa kwamfuta da ma'ajin bayanai a cikin yadudduka da aka tara a tsaye. A halin yanzu, kwamfutoci na gargajiya suna sanya sandunan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya sandunansu daga na'urar sarrafa su. Amma ta hanyar haɗa abubuwan ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya da kayan sarrafawa, wannan nisa yana raguwa daga santimita zuwa micrometers, yana ba da damar haɓaka haɓaka mai girma a cikin saurin sarrafawa da amfani da kuzari.

Umididdigar ƙididdiga. Duban gaba zuwa gaba, ɗimbin ɗimbin ƙididdiga matakin kamfani na iya aiki ƙarƙashin ƙaƙƙarfan ƙa'idodin kimiyyar lissafi. Duk da haka, saboda mahimmancin wannan nau'in na'ura mai kwakwalwa, mun ba shi babin nasa a karshen wannan silsilar.

Super microchips ba su da kyau kasuwanci

Da kyau, don haka abin da kuka karanta a sama yana da kyau kuma yana da kyau-muna magana ƙwararrun microchips masu amfani da makamashi waɗanda aka tsara bayan kwakwalwar ɗan adam wanda zai iya gudana cikin saurin haske-amma abin shine, masana'antar kera guntuwar ba ta kasance ba. tsananin marmarin juya waɗannan ra'ayoyin zuwa gaskiyar da aka samar da yawa.

Kattai masu fasaha, kamar Intel, Samsung, da AMD, sun riga sun kashe biliyoyin daloli a cikin shekarun da suka gabata don samar da microchips na gargajiya, na tushen silicon. Canjawa zuwa kowanne daga cikin ra'ayoyin labari da aka ambata a sama na nufin soke waɗancan jarin da kuma kashe ƙarin biliyoyin akan gina sabbin masana'antu don samar da sabbin nau'ikan microchip waɗanda ke da tarihin tallace-tallace na sifili.

Ba lokaci da kuɗi ba ne kawai ke riƙe waɗannan kamfanonin semiconductor baya. Bukatar mabukaci don ƙara ƙarfin microchips shima yana kan raguwa. Ka yi tunani game da shi: A cikin shekarun 90s da mafi yawan 00s, kusan an ba da cewa za ku yi ciniki a kwamfutarku ko wayarku, idan ba kowace shekara ba, sannan kowace shekara. Wannan zai ba ku damar ci gaba da ci gaba da duk sabbin software da aikace-aikacen da ke fitowa don sauƙaƙe rayuwar ku da aiki mafi sauƙi kuma mafi kyau. A kwanakin nan, sau nawa kuke haɓaka zuwa sabon samfurin tebur ko kwamfutar tafi-da-gidanka a kasuwa?

Lokacin da kake tunanin wayar salularka, kana da abin da za a yi la'akari da shi a matsayin supercomputer shekaru 20 da suka wuce. Baya ga gunaguni game da rayuwar baturi da ƙwaƙwalwar ajiya, yawancin wayoyi da aka saya tun daga 2016 suna da cikakkiyar ikon gudanar da kowane app ko wasan wayar hannu, na watsa duk wani bidiyo na kiɗa ko zaman ɓarna tare da SO, ko kuma duk wani abu da kuke son yi akan ku. waya. Shin da gaske kuna buƙatar kashe $1,000 ko fiye kowace shekara don yin waɗannan abubuwan 10-15 bisa dari mafi kyau? Za ku iya lura da bambancin?

Ga yawancin mutane, amsar ita ce a'a.

Makomar Dokar Moore

A baya, yawancin kuɗaɗen saka hannun jari zuwa fasahar semiconductor sun fito ne daga kashe kuɗin tsaro na soja. Sannan masana'antun na'urorin lantarki na mabukaci ne suka maye gurbinsa, kuma nan da 2020-2023, jagorantar saka hannun jari zuwa ci gaban microchip zai sake canzawa, wannan lokacin daga masana'antu masu ƙware a cikin masu zuwa:

Abun ciki na gaba-Gen. Gabatarwar na'urorin holographic, kama-da-wane da ingantattun na'urori ga jama'a za su haifar da babban buƙatu don yawo da bayanai, musamman yayin da waɗannan fasahohin suka girma kuma suna girma cikin shahara a ƙarshen 2020s.
Ƙididdigar Cloud. An yi bayani a kashi na gaba na wannan silsilar.
Motoci masu zaman kansu. An yi bayani sosai a cikin mu Makomar Sufuri jerin.
Intanit na abubuwa. An bayyana a cikin mu Internet na Things babi a cikin mu Makomar Intanet jerin.
Babban bayanai da nazari. Ƙungiyoyin da ke buƙatar murƙushe bayanai na yau da kullun-tunanin soja, binciken sararin samaniya, masu hasashen yanayi, magunguna, dabaru, da sauransu—za su ci gaba da buƙatar kwamfutoci masu ƙarfi don bincikar tarin bayanan da aka tattara.

Bayar da kuɗi don R&D cikin microchips na gaba zai kasance koyaushe, amma tambayar ita ce ko matakin tallafin da ake buƙata don ƙarin hadaddun nau'ikan microprocessors zai iya ci gaba da buƙatun ci gaban Dokar Moore. Ganin farashin canji zuwa da siyar da sabbin nau'ikan microchips, haɗe tare da rage buƙatun mabukaci, matsalar kasafin kuɗin gwamnati na gaba da koma bayan tattalin arziki, da alama Dokar Moore za ta yi jinkiri ko ta tsaya a ɗan lokaci a farkon 2020s, kafin ta dawo da ƙarshen ƙarshen. 2020s, farkon 2030s.

Dangane da dalilin da ya sa Dokar Moore za ta sake ɗaukar sauri, da kyau, bari mu ce kawai microchips masu amfani da turbo ba shine kawai juyin juya halin da ke saukowa cikin bututun ƙididdiga ba. A gaba a cikin jerin abubuwanmu na gaba na Kwamfuta, za mu bincika abubuwan da ke haifar da haɓakar ƙididdigar girgije.