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Tsiku lokhala ndi galimoto yanu yodziyendetsa nokha: Tsogolo la Maulendo P1

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Tsiku lokhala ndi galimoto yanu yodziyendetsa nokha: Tsogolo la Maulendo P1

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
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Chaka ndi 2033. Ndi nyengo yotentha kwambiri masana, osachepera ndi zomwe kompyuta ya ndegeyo idalengeza kale kuphatikizapo kutentha kwenikweni kwa madigiri 32 Celsius. Kungotentha pang'ono kuposa New York, koma ndinu wamanjenje kwambiri kuti musamasamalire. Misomali yanu imayamba kuluma pamapazi anu.

Ndege yanu ya Porter inali ikuyamba kutsika ku Airport ya Toronto's Island, koma chichokereni pamene anasintha oyendetsa ndege a anthu ndi oyendetsa ndege, simunamve kukhala ophweka pamene mukutera ndege zamalonda za mwezi uliwonse.

Ndege imafika pansi bwino komanso popanda chochitika, monga nthawi zonse. Mumanyamula katundu wanu pamalo osungira katundu pabwalo la ndege, kukwera ndi kutsika pa boti la Porter kuti muwoloke Nyanja ya Ontario, ndikutsika panjira ya Porter's Bathurst Street ku Toronto. Pamene mukutuluka, wothandizira wanu wa AI wayitanitsa kale galimoto kuti ikunyamuleni kudzera pa pulogalamu ya Google rideshare.

Wotchi yanu yanzeru imanjenjemera pakangopita mphindi ziwiri mutafika pamalo onyamula anthu. Ndipamene mumaziwona: Ford Lincoln yachifumu yabuluu ikuyendetsa yokha mumsewu wodutsa. Imayima kutsogolo kwa pomwe mwaimirira, ndikukulandirani ndi dzina, kenako ndikutsegula chitseko chapampando wakumbuyo. Ikalowa, galimotoyo imayamba kulowera chakumpoto kulowera ku Nyanja ya Shore Boulevard panjira yomwe mwakonzedweratu ndi pulogalamu yanu ya rideshare.

Inde, inu kwathunthu splurged. Pakugwa kwachuma kwaposachedwa, maulendo abizinesi ndi amodzi mwa mwayi wotsalira pomwe makampani amakulolani kuti muwononge ndalama zamagalimoto okwera mtengo okhala ndi mwendo wowonjezera ndi chipinda chonyamula katundu. Mumasankhanso njira yotsika mtengo yogulitsira magalimoto, mwalamulo pazifukwa zachitetezo, mosavomerezeka chifukwa mumadana ndi kuyendetsa magalimoto ndi anthu osawadziwa. Mudasankha kukwera popanda zotsatsa.

Kuyendetsa kupita kuofesi yanu ya Bay Street kungangotenga pafupifupi mphindi khumi ndi ziwiri, kutengera mapu a Google omwe ali pachiwonetsero chakumutu kutsogolo kwanu. Mumakhala pansi, kumasuka, ndi kuloza maso anu pa zenera, kuyang'ana pa magalimoto opanda dalaivala ndi magalimoto akuzungulira inu.

Izo kwenikweni sizinali zonse kale choncho, inu mukukumbukira. Zinthu izi zidakhala zovomerezeka ku Canada chaka chonse chomwe mudamaliza maphunziro anu—2026. Poyamba, panali ochepa okha panjira; zinali zodula kwambiri kwa munthu wamba. Zaka zingapo pambuyo pake, mgwirizano wa Uber-Apple pamapeto pake udawona Uber ikusintha madalaivala ake ambiri ndi magalimoto opangidwa ndi Apple, amagetsi, odziyimira pawokha. Google idagwirizana ndi GM kuyambitsa ntchito yake yogawana magalimoto. Opanga magalimoto otsalawo adatsata zomwezo, ndikusefukira mizinda yayikulu ndi ma taxi odziyimira pawokha.

Mpikisanowo unakula kwambiri, ndipo mtengo waulendo unatsika kwambiri, moti kukhala ndi galimoto m’mizinda ndi m’matauni ambiri sikunali kwanzeru pokhapokha mutakhala wolemera, mumafuna kuyenda ulendo wachikale, kapena mumangokonda kuyendetsa galimoto. buku. Palibe mwazosankhazo zomwe zidagwiradi m'badwo wanu. Izi zati, aliyense adalandira kutha kwa dalaivala wosankhidwayo.

Galimotoyo imakwera m'mphepete mwa msewu wa Bay ndi Wellington, mkati mwa chigawo cha zachuma. Pulogalamu yanu yamagalimoto imangolipiritsa akaunti yanu yakampani mukangotuluka mgalimoto. Kutengera maimelo omwe akusefukira foni yanu, zikuwoneka kuti zikhala tsiku lalitali pakusinthanitsa kwa bitcoin. Kumbali yowala, ngati mutadutsa 7pm, makampani adzakulipirani ulendo wanu wopita kunyumba, zosankha zomwe mwasankha zikuphatikizidwa, inde.

Chifukwa chiyani magalimoto odziyendetsa okha ndi ofunika

Ambiri mwa osewera ofunikira pamagalimoto odziyimira pawokha (AVs) amaneneratu kuti ma AV oyambilira apezeka pamalonda pofika chaka cha 2020, adzakhala ofala pofika 2030, ndipo adzalowa m'malo mwa magalimoto ambiri pofika 2040-2045.

Tsogolo lino silitali choncho, koma mafunso atsala: Kodi ma AV awa adzakhala okwera mtengo kuposa magalimoto wamba? Inde. Kodi zidzakhala zosaloledwa kugwira ntchito m'madera akuluakulu a dziko lanu akamayamba? Inde. Kodi anthu ambiri adzawopa kugawana msewu ndi magalimotowa poyamba? Inde. Kodi adzachita ntchito yofanana ndi yoyendetsa galimoto? Inde.

Ndiye pambali pazaukadaulo wapamwamba, chifukwa chiyani magalimoto odziyendetsa okha akupeza hype kwambiri? Njira yolunjika kwambiri yoyankhira izi ndikulemba maubwino oyesedwa a magalimoto odziyendetsa okha, omwe ali ofunikira kwambiri kwa oyendetsa wamba:

Choyamba, adzapulumutsa miyoyo. Chaka chilichonse, ngozi zagalimoto miliyoni sikisi zimalembetsedwa ku US, pafupifupi, kutsatira mu opitilira 30,000 amafa. Chulukitsani chiwerengerochi padziko lonse lapansi, makamaka m'mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene kumene maphunziro oyendetsa galimoto ndi apolisi apamsewu sali okhwima kwambiri. Ndipotu, chiŵerengero cha 2013 chinati anthu 1.4 miliyoni anafa padziko lonse chifukwa cha ngozi zagalimoto.

Nthawi zambiri, kulakwitsa kwa anthu kunali chifukwa: anthu anali kupsinjika, kutopa, kugona, kusokonezedwa, kuledzera, ndi zina zambiri. Maloboti, pakadali pano, sangavutike ndi izi; 360 iwo amakhala tcheru nthawi zonse, amakhala oledzeretsa, amakhala ndi masomphenya angwiro, ndipo amadziwa bwino malamulo a msewu. Ndipotu, Google yayesa kale magalimotowa pamtunda wa 100,000 ndi ngozi za 11 zokha-zonse chifukwa cha oyendetsa anthu, osachepera.

Chotsatira, ngati mudamalizapo wina, mudzadziwa momwe nthawi yochitira anthu imacheperachepera. Ndicho chifukwa chake madalaivala odalirika amasunga mtunda wokwanira pakati pawo ndi galimoto yomwe ili patsogolo pawo pamene akuyendetsa. Vuto ndiloti kuchuluka kwa malo omwe ali ndi udindo kumapangitsa kuti pakhale kuchuluka kwa magalimoto pamsewu (magalimoto) omwe timakumana nawo tsiku ndi tsiku. Magalimoto odziyendetsa okha azitha kulumikizana wina ndi mnzake pamsewu ndikuthandizana kuyendetsa moyandikana wina ndi mnzake, kupatula kuthekera kwa ma fender bender. Izi sizingokwanira magalimoto ambiri pamsewu ndikuwongolera nthawi yoyenda, komanso zithandizira kuyendetsa bwino kwagalimoto yanu, potero kupulumutsa mafuta.

Ponena za mafuta, anthu ambiri sagwiritsa ntchito bwino mafuta awo. Timathamanga pamene sitikufunikira. Timalima mabuleki molimba pang'ono pomwe sitikufuna. Timachita izi pafupipafupi kotero kuti sitizilemba m'maganizo mwathu. Koma imalembetsa, ponse paŵiri m’maulendo athu owonjezereka opita kumalo okwerera mafuta ndi kwa omanga magalimoto. Maloboti adzatha kuwongolera bwino gasi ndi mabuleki kuti atiyendetse bwino, achepetse kugwiritsa ntchito gasi ndi 15 peresenti, komanso kuchepetsa kupsinjika ndi kuvala kwa zida zamagalimoto — komanso chilengedwe chathu.

Pomaliza, pomwe ena a inu mungasangalale ndi nthawi yoyendetsa galimoto yanu paulendo wapamsewu wamlungu wa sabata, anthu oyipa kwambiri okha ndi omwe amasangalala ndi ulendo wawo wa ola limodzi kupita kuntchito. Tangoganizani tsiku lomwe m'malo mongoyang'ana panjira, mutha kupita kuntchito mukawerenga buku, kumvera nyimbo, kuyang'ana maimelo, kusakatula intaneti, kuyankhula ndi okondedwa, ndi zina zambiri.

Waamereka wamba amathera pafupifupi maola 200 pachaka (pafupifupi mphindi 45 patsiku) akuyendetsa galimoto yawo. Ngati mukuganiza kuti nthawi yanu ndiyofunika ngakhale theka la malipiro ocheperako, nenani madola asanu, ndiye kuti izi zitha kukhala $325 biliyoni pakutayika, nthawi yosabereka ku US (potengera ~ 325 miliyoni US 2015). Chulukitsani ndalama zomwe zasungidwa nthawi imeneyo padziko lonse lapansi ndipo titha kuwona mabiliyoni a madola akumasulidwa kuti tipeze phindu.

Zoonadi, monga momwe zilili ndi zinthu zonse, pali zolakwika pamagalimoto odziyendetsa okha. Kodi chimachitika ndi chiyani kompyuta yagalimoto yanu ikawonongeka? Kodi kupanga kuyendetsa mosavuta sikungalimbikitse anthu kuyendetsa galimoto zambiri, motero kuchulukitsa magalimoto ndi kuipitsa? Kodi galimoto yanu ikhoza kubedwa kuti ibe zambiri zanu kapenanso kukuberani patali mumsewu? Momwemonso, kodi magalimoto amenewa angagwiritsidwe ntchito ndi zigawenga kutumiza bomba ku malo omwe akufuna?

Mafunso awa ndi ongoyerekeza ndipo zochitika zawo sizingakhale zachilendo m'malo mozolowera. Ndi kafukufuku wokwanira, zambiri mwazowopsazi zitha kupangidwa kuchokera ku ma AV kudzera pamapulogalamu olimba komanso chitetezo chaukadaulo. Izi zati, chimodzi mwazinthu zazikulu zolepheretsa kukhazikitsidwa kwa magalimoto odziyimira pawokha ndi mtengo wawo.

Kodi imodzi mwa magalimoto odziyendetsa okha idzanditengera ndalama zingati?

Mtengo wa magalimoto odziyendetsa okha udzadalira chatekinoloje yomwe imapita ku mapangidwe awo omaliza. Mwamwayi, zatekinoloje zambiri zomwe magalimotowa adzagwiritse ntchito zayamba kale kukhala zodziwika bwino m'magalimoto ambiri atsopano, monga: kupewa kutengeka kwa kanjira, kudziimika magalimoto, kuwongolera maulendo apanyanja, kusungitsa chitetezo, zidziwitso zochenjeza za akhungu, ndipo posachedwa. galimoto kupita ku galimoto (V2V) mauthenga, omwe amatumiza uthenga wachitetezo pakati pa magalimoto kuti achenjeze madalaivala za ngozi zomwe zachitika posachedwa. Magalimoto odziyendetsa okha adzamanga pazitetezo zamakono kuti achepetse mtengo wawo.

Komabe mopanda chiyembekezo, chatekinoloje yomwe idanenedweratu kuti idzapakidwa m'magalimoto odziyendetsa okha imaphatikizapo masensa ambiri (infrared, radar, lidar, ultrasonic, laser ndi optical) kuti azitha kuyendetsa galimoto (mvula, matalala, tornados), moto wa gehena, ndi zina zotero), makina olimba a wifi ndi GPS, makina atsopano oyendetsa galimoto, ndi mini-supercomputer mu thunthu kuti azitha kuyang'anira zonse zomwe magalimotowa amayenera kusweka poyendetsa.

Ngati zonsezi zikumveka zodula, ndichifukwa chake zili choncho. Ngakhale ukadaulo ukutsika mtengo chaka ndi chaka, ukadaulo wonsewu ukhoza kuyimira mtengo woyambira pakati pa $20-50,000 pagalimoto imodzi (pamapeto pake utsikira pafupifupi $3,000 pomwe ukadaulo wopangira ukukwera). Ndiye izi zikufunsa funso, kupatula ma spoiled trust fund brats, ndani angagule magalimoto odziyendetsa okhawa? Yankho lodabwitsa ndi losinthika la funso ili likufotokozedwa mu gawo lachiwiri za mndandanda wathu wa Future of Transportation.

PS magalimoto amagetsi

Cholemba cham'mbali mwachangu: Kupatula ma AVs, magalimoto magetsi (EVs) ikhala njira yachiwiri yayikulu kwambiri yosinthira malonda amayendedwe. Zotsatira zake zidzakhala zazikulu, makamaka zikaphatikizidwa ndi ukadaulo wa AV, ndipo timalimbikitsadi kuphunzira za ma EV kuti timvetsetse bwino mndandandawu. Komabe, chifukwa cha momwe ma EV adzakhudzidwira pamsika wamagetsi, tidaganiza zolankhula za ma EV mu athu Future of Energy mndandanda m'malo mwake.