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Molao o ntseng o putlama oa Moore oa ho tsosa monahano oa mantlha oa li-microchips: Bokamoso ba Likhomphutha P4

David Tal, Mohatisi, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lumela, 09 / 15 / 2020 - 15: 39

Lik'homphieutha-ke mofuta oa ntho e kholo. Empa ho ananela mekhoa e hlahang eo re seng re e hlalositse ho fihlela joale letotong la rona la Bokamoso ba Likhomphutha, re boetse re hloka ho utloisisa liphetoho tse thellang liphaephe tsa computational, kapa ka mokhoa o bonolo: bokamoso ba li-microchips.

Ho tlosa lintho tsa motheo tseleng, re tlameha ho utloisisa Molao oa Moore, molao o tsebahalang hona joale Dr. Gordon E. Moore o thehiloe ka 1965. Ha e le hantle, seo Moore a ileng a se hlokomela lilemong tse mashome tse fetileng ke hore palo ea li-transistors ka potoloho e kopantsoeng e imena habeli. likhoeli tse ling le tse ling tse 18 ho isa ho tse 24. Ke ka lebaka leo komporo e tšoanang eo u e rekang kajeno bakeng sa $1,000 e tla u jella $500 lilemo tse peli ho tloha joale.

Ka lilemo tse fetang mashome a mahlano, indasteri ea semiconductor e phetse ho latela mokhoa o kopanyang oa molao ona, e bula tsela bakeng sa lits'ebetso tse ncha tsa ts'ebetso, lipapali tsa video, video e phallelang, lisebelisoa tsa mehala, le theknoloji e 'ngoe le e 'ngoe ea dijithale e hlalositseng setso sa rona sa sejoale-joale. Empa leha tlhokahalo ea kholo ena e bonahala eka e tla lula e tsitsitse bakeng sa halofo e 'ngoe ea lekholo la lilemo, silicon - thepa ea bethe ea li-microchips tsohle tsa sejoale-joale ha e bonahale eka e tla fihlela tlhoko eo nako e telele e fetileng 2021 - ho latela tlaleho ea ho qetela e tsoang ho Tsela ea Machabeng ea Theknoloji bakeng sa li-Semiconductors (ITRS)

Ke 'nete ea fisiks: indasteri ea semiconductor e fokotsa li-transistors ho isa tekanyong ea athomo, silicon e tla tloha e sa tšoanelehe. 'Me ha indasteri ena e ntse e leka ho fokotsa silicon ho feta meeli ea eona e nepahetseng, ke moo phetoho e' ngoe le e 'ngoe ea microchip e tla ba e theko e boima haholo.

Ke mona moo re leng teng kajeno. Ka lilemo tse 'maloa, silicon ha e sa tla hlola e e-ba thepa e theko e tlaase ho haha moloko o latelang oa li-microchips tse tsoetseng pele. Moeli ona o tla qobella phetoho ho lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki ka ho qobella indasteri ea semiconductor (le sechaba) ho khetha pakeng tsa likhetho tse 'maloa:

Khetho ea pele ke ho liehisa, kapa ho felisa, nts'etsopele e theko e boima ho tsoela pele ho fokotsa silicon, molemong oa ho fumana mekhoa e mecha ea ho qapa li-microchip tse hlahisang matla a mangata a ho sebetsa ntle le miniaturization e eketsehileng.
Taba ea bobeli, fumana lisebelisoa tse ncha tse ka sebelisoang ka sekala se nyane haholo ho feta silicon ho kenya palo e kholo ea li-transistors ho li-microchips tse teteaneng.
Ntlha ea boraro, ho e-na le ho tsepamisa maikutlo ho miniaturization kapa ntlafatso ea tšebeliso ea matla, sheba hape lebelo la ts'ebetso ka ho theha li-processor tse khethehileng bakeng sa linyeoe tse khethehileng tsa tšebeliso. Sena se ka bolela ho fapana le ho ba le chip e le 'ngoe ea generalist, likhomphutha tsa kamoso li ka ba le sehlopha sa li-chips tse ikhethang. Mehlala e kenyelletsa likhafi tsa litšoantšo tse sebelisoang ho ntlafatsa lipapali tsa video ho Selelekela sa Google ea chip ea Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) e sebetsanang ka ho khetheha le lits'ebetso tsa ho ithuta ka mochini.
Qetellong, qapa lisebelisoa tse ncha tsa software le maru tse ka sebetsang ka potlako le ka mokhoa o atlehileng ntle le ho hloka li-microchips tse teteaneng / tse nyane.

Ke khetho efe eo indasteri ea rona ea theknoloji e tla e khetha? Ka 'nete: kaofela ha bona.

Mokhoa oa bophelo oa Molao oa Moore

Lenane le latelang ke tlhase e khuts'oane ea bahlolisani ba nako e telele le ba nako e telele ba indasteri ea semiconductor ba tla e sebelisa ho boloka Molao oa Moore o phela. Karolo ena e batla e teteane, empa re tla leka ho e boloka e balehe.

Li-nanomaterials. Likhamphani tse etellang pele tsa semiconductor, joalo ka Intel, li se li phatlalalitse hore li tla etsa joalo tlosa silicon hang ha ba fihla sekala sa miniaturization sa li-nanometer tse supileng (7nm). Bakhethoa ba tla nkela silicon sebaka ba kenyelletsa indium antimonide (InSb), indium gallium arsenide (InGaAs), le silicon-germanium (SiGe) empa thepa e ntseng e hlasimolla haholo e bonahala e le carbon nanotubes. E entsoe ka graphite - ka boeona e le qubu ea lintho tse makatsang, graphene - carbon nanotubes e ka etsoa liathomo tse teteaneng, li sebetsa hantle haholo, 'me ho hakanngoa hore li tla etsa hore li-microchips tsa nakong e tlang li potlake ka makhetlo a mahlano ka 2020.

Khomphutha ea optical. E 'ngoe ea liqholotso tse kholo ka ho fetisisa mabapi le ho rala li-chips ke ho netefatsa hore lielektrone ha li tlole ho tloha ho transistor e' ngoe ho ea ho e 'ngoe - maikutlo a ba thata le ho feta hang ha o kena boemong ba athomo. Theknoloji e hlahang ea optical computing e shebahala e nkela li-electrone sebaka ka photons, moo leseli (eseng motlakase) le fetisoang ho tloha transistor ho ea ho transistor. a 2017, bafuputsi ba ile ba nka bohato bo boholo ba ho finyella pakane ena ka ho bontša bokhoni ba ho boloka boitsebiso bo thehiloeng khanyeng (lifoton) e le maqhubu a molumo k’homphieutheng. Ka mokhoa ona, li-microchips li ka sebetsa haufi le lebelo la khanya ka 2025.

Spintronics. Ho feta lilemo tse mashome a mabeli ho nts'etsopele, li-spitronic transistors li leka ho sebelisa 'spin' ea elektronike ho e-na le tefiso ea eona ho emela tlhahisoleseding. Ha e ntse e le hōle le khoebo, haeba e rarolloa, mofuta ona oa transistor o tla hloka feela 10-20 millivolts ho sebetsa, ka makhetlo a makholo a manyenyane ho feta li-transistors tse tloaelehileng; sena se tla boela se tlose mathata a ho chesa haholo lik'hamphani tsa semiconductor li tobana le ha li hlahisa lichifi tse nyane.

Khomphutha ea Neuromorphic le memristors. Mokhoa o mong o mocha oa ho rarolla bothata bona bo ntseng bo atamela o teng bokong ba motho. Bafuputsi ba IBM le DARPA, haholo-holo, ke bona ba etellang pele nts'etsopele ea mofuta o mocha oa microchip - chip eo lipotoloho tsa eona tse kopaneng li etselitsoeng ho etsisa mokhoa oa boko o arolelanoang le o sa tsamaisaneng le komporo. (Sheba sena Sengoloa sa ScienceBlogs ho utloisisa hamolemo phapang pakeng tsa boko ba motho le lik'homphieutha.) Liphetho tsa pele li bontša hore li-chips tse etsisang boko ha li sebetse hantle feela, empa li sebetsa li sebelisa metsi a fokolang ka mokhoa o makatsang ho feta li-microchip tsa kajeno.

U sebelisa mokhoa ona oa ho etsa mohlala oa boko, transistor ka boeona, karolo ea maele e hahang ea microchip ea komporo ea hau, haufinyane e ka nkeloa sebaka ke memristor. Ha re qala mehla ea "ionics", memristor e fana ka melemo e mengata e khahlisang ho feta transistor ea setso:

Ntlha ea pele, li-memristors li ka hopola phallo ea elektronike e fetang ho tsona-le haeba matla a khaotsoe. E fetoletsoe, sena se bolela hore ka letsatsi le leng u ka bulela komporo ea hau ka lebelo le ts'oanang le lebone la hau.
Li-transistors li binary, ebang ke 1 kapa 0s. Memristors, ho sa le joalo, e ka ba le maemo a fapaneng pakeng tsa maemo a feteletseng, joalo ka 0.25, 0.5, 0.747, joalo-joalo Sena se etsa hore memristors e sebetse joalo ka li-synapse bokong ba rona, 'me ke taba e kholo kaha e ka bula mefuta e mengata ea likhomphutha tse tlang. menyetla.
Ka mor'a moo, li-memristors ha li hloke silicon ho sebetsa, ho bula tsela bakeng sa indasteri ea semiconductor ho leka ho sebelisa lisebelisoa tse ncha ho tsoela pele ho fokotsa li-microchips (joalo ka ha ho boletsoe pejana).
Qetellong, tse tšoanang le liphuputso tse entsoeng ke IBM le DARPA ho computing ea neuromorphic, li-microchips tse thehiloeng ho li-memristors li potlakile, li sebelisa matla a fokolang, 'me li ka boloka boitsebiso bo phahameng ho feta li-chips tse teng hona joale 'marakeng.

Li-chips tsa 3D. Li-microchips tsa setso le li-transistors tse li matlafatsang li sebetsa sefofaneng se bataletseng, se mahlakore a mabeli, empa mathoasong a lilemo tsa bo-2010, lik'hamphani tsa semiconductor li ile tsa qala ho leka ho eketsa karolo ea boraro ho li-chips tsa bona. Li bitsoa 'finFET', li-transistors tsena tse ncha li na le mocha o khomarelang holimo ho chip, o li fa taolo e betere holim'a se etsahalang liteisheneng tsa tsona, e leng se li lumellang ho matha ka lebelo le ka etsang liphesente tse 40, le ho sebetsa ka halofo ea matla. Taba e nyahamisang, leha ho le joalo, ke hore li-chips tsena li thata haholo (li bitsa chelete e ngata) ho li hlahisa hajoale.

Empa ntle le ho hlophisa bocha transistors ka bomong, bokamoso Li-chips tsa 3D e boetse e ikemiselitse ho kopanya likhomphutha le polokelo ea data ka har'a mekhahlelo e otlolohileng. Hona joale, lik'homphieutha tsa setso li boloka lithupa tsa memori ea li-centimeters ho tloha ho processor ea eona. Empa ka ho kopanya memori le likarolo tsa ts'ebetso, sebaka sena se theoha ho tloha ho lisenthimithara ho isa ho li-micrometer, se nolofalletsang ntlafatso e kholo ea lebelo la ho sebetsa le tšebeliso ea matla.

Likhomphutha tsa quantum. Ha re sheba bokamoso, karolo e kholo ea komporo ea boemo ba khoebo e ka sebetsa tlasa melao e makatsang ea fisiks ea quantum. Leha ho le joalo, ka lebaka la bohlokoa ba mofuta ona oa komporo, re e file khaolo ea eona qetellong ea letoto lena.

Super microchips ha se khoebo e ntle

Ho lokile, kahoo seo u se balileng ka holimo se hantle ebile se setle - re bua ka li-microchips tse sebetsang hantle ka matla ho latela boko ba motho bo ka mathang ka lebelo la leseli - empa taba ke hore indasteri ea ho etsa li-semiconductor ha e joalo. tjantjello e feteletseng ea ho fetola maikutlo ana hore e be 'nete e hlahisitsoeng ka bongata.

Linatla tsa theknoloji, tse kang Intel, Samsung, le AMD, li se li tsetetse libilione tsa lidolara ho theosa le mashome a lilemo ho hlahisa li-microchips tsa setso, tse thehiloeng ka silicon. Ho fetohela ho efe kapa efe ea menahano e mecha e boletsoeng ka holimo ho tla bolela ho lahla matsete ao le ho sebelisa limilione tse likete ho aha lifeme tse ncha ho hlahisa mefuta e mecha ea li-microchip tse nang le rekoto ea thekiso ea zero.

Ha se matsete a nako le chelete feela a ts'oereng lik'hamphani tsena tsa semiconductor. Tlhokahalo ea bareki ea li-microchip tse matla le ho feta e ntse e fokotseha. Nahana ka sena: Nakong ea 90s le boholo ba 00s, ho ne ho batla ho fanoe ka hore u ka rekisa k'homphieutha kapa fono ea hau, haeba e se selemo se seng le se seng, ebe selemo se seng le se seng. Sena se ne se tla u lumella ho tsamaisana le software le lits'ebetso tse ncha tse neng li tsoa ho etsa hore bophelo ba hau ba lapeng le mosebetsing bo be bobebe hape bo be betere. Matsatsing ana, ke hangata hakae u ntlafatsang ho mofuta oa morao-rao oa komporo kapa oa laptop 'marakeng?

Ha u nahana ka smartphone ea hau, ka pokothong ea hau ho ka be ho nkuoe e le komporo e kholo lilemong tse 20 tse fetileng. Ntle le litletlebo mabapi le bophelo ba betri le mohopolo, lifono tse ngata tse rekiloeng ho tloha ka 2016 li khona ho tsamaisa sesebelisoa kapa papali ea selefouno, ea ho hasanya video efe kapa efe ea 'mino kapa nako e mpe ea SO, kapa eng kapa eng eo u ka ratang ho e etsa ho uena. mohala. Na u hlile u hloka ho sebelisa $1,000 kapa ho feta selemo se seng le se seng ho etsa lintho tsee hantle ka liperesente tse 10-15? Na u ne u tla hlokomela phapang?

Ho batho ba bangata, karabo ke che.

Bokamoso ba Molao oa Moore

Nakong e fetileng, lichelete tse ngata tsa matsete ho theknoloji ea semiconductor li ne li tsoa tšebelisong ea chelete ea sesole. E ile ea nkeloa sebaka ke baetsi ba lisebelisoa tsa elektroniki tsa bareki, 'me ka 2020-2023, matsete a etellang pele ntlafatsong ea microchip e tla fetoha hape, lekhetlong lena ho tsoa liindasteri tse sebetsanang le tse latelang:

Litaba tsa Next-Gen. Kenyelletso e tlang ea lisebelisoa tsa 'nete tsa holographic, tse bonoang le tse matlafalitsoeng sechabeng ka kakaretso e tla tsosa tlhokahalo e kholo ea ho hasanya data, haholoholo ha mahlale ana a ntse a hola le ho hola ka botumo mafelong a bo-2020.
leru dikhomphiutha. E hlalositsoe karolong e latelang ea letoto lena.
Likoloi tse ikemetseng. E hlalositsoe ka botlalo bukeng ea rona Bokamoso ba Lipalangoang letoto lena.
Internet ea lintho. E hlalositsoe bukeng ea rona Internet Lintho Tse khaolo ea rona Bokamoso ba Marang-rang letoto lena.
Lintlha tse kholo le analytics. Mekhatlo e hlokang ho hlakoloa ha data khafetsa-e nahana hore sesole, tlhahlobo ea sebaka, litsebi tsa boemo ba leholimo, meriana, thepa, joalo-joalo-e tla tsoela pele ho batla lik'homphieutha tse matla ka ho fetisisa ho hlahloba lihlopha tsa tsona tse ntseng li atoloha tsa boitsebiso bo bokeletsoeng.

Lithuso tsa lichelete bakeng sa R&D ho li-microchip tsa moloko o latelang li tla lula li le teng, empa potso ke hore na boemo ba lichelete bo hlokehang bakeng sa mefuta e rarahaneng ea li-microprocessors bo ka tsamaisana le litlhoko tsa kholo tsa Molao oa Moore. Ha ho nahanoa ka litšenyehelo tsa ho fetohela le ho rekisa mefuta e mecha ea li-microchips, hammoho le tlhokahalo e liehang ea bareki, ho putlama ha lichelete tsa mmuso le ho putlama ha moruo, monyetla ke hore Molao oa Moore o tla lieha kapa o eme hanyane mathoasong a bo-2020, pele o khutlisa morao. 2020s, mathoasong a 2030s.

Mabapi le hore na ke hobaneng ha Molao oa Moore o tla nyoloha ka lebelo hape, ha re re feela li-microchips tse tsamaisoang ke turbo ha se eona feela phetoho e tlang ho theosa le pompo ea komporo. E latelang letotong la rona la Bokamoso ba Likhomphutha, re tla hlahloba mekhoa e matlafatsang kholo ea likhomphutha tsa maru.