Ingabe i-Artificial Superintelligence izosiqeda isintu? Ikusasa le-artificial intelligence P4

Kunezizwe ezisunguliwe ezithile ezingena kuzo zonke. Lezi izinto eziqanjiwe lapho yonke into incike ekubeni ngowokuqala, futhi noma yini encane ingasho usongo lwamasu nolubulalayo ekusindeni kwesizwe.

Lezi zinto eziqanjiwe ezichaza umlando aziveli njalo, kodwa uma zenzeka, umhlaba uyama futhi ikusasa elibikezelwayo liba lifiphele.

Ukusungulwa kokugcina okunjalo kwavela phakathi neMpi Yezwe II. Ngenkathi amaNazi ezuza umhlaba kuzo zonke izinhlangothi ezweni elidala, ezweni elisha, ikakhulukazi ngaphakathi kwesizinda sebutho eliyimfihlo ngaphandle kwe-Los Alamos, ama-Allies ayesebenza kanzima esikhalini sokuqeda zonke izikhali.

Lo msebenzi wawumncane ekuqaleni, kodwa wabe usukhula wasebenzisa abantu abangu-130,000 abavela e-US, UK, naseCanada, kuhlanganise nongqondongqondo abaningi abakhulu emhlabeni ngaleso sikhathi. I-Codenamed i-Manhattan Project futhi yanikezwa isabelomali esingenamkhawulo-cishe ama-dollar ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-23 ngamadola ka-2018-leli butho lobuhlakani bomuntu ekugcineni liphumelele ekwakheni ibhomu lenuzi lokuqala. Ngokushesha ngemva kwalokho, i-WWII yaphela ngama-athomu amabili.

Lezi zikhali zenuzi zangenisa inkathi ye-athomu, zaveza umthombo wamandla omusha ngokujulile, futhi zanikeza isintu ikhono lokuziqothula ngemizuzu emingaki—into esayigwema naphezu kweMpi Yomshoshaphansi.

Ukudalwa kwe-artificial superintelligence (ASI) kusengomunye umlando ochaza okusunguliwe okunamandla (okubili okuhle nokubhubhisayo) adlula kude ibhomu lenuzi.

Esahlukweni sokugcina sochungechunge lwe-Future of Artificial Intelligence, sihlole ukuthi iyini i-ASI nokuthi abacwaningi bahlela kanjani ukwakha usuku olulodwa. Kulesi sahluko, sizobheka ukuthi yiziphi izinhlangano ezihola ucwaningo lwe-Artificial Intelligence (AI), ukuthi i-ASI izofunani uma isithole ukwazi okufana nomuntu, nokuthi ingasabisa kanjani isintu uma ingaphathwa kahle noma uma umuntu ewela ngaphansi kwethonya lobuhlakani. imibuso engemihle kangako.

Ubani osebenzela ukwakha ubuhlakani bokwenziwa?

Uma kucatshangelwa ukuthi ukudalwa kwe-ASI kuzoba okubaluleke kangakanani emlandweni wesintu nokuthi kuzonikeza umdali wayo inzuzo enkulu kangakanani, akufanele kumangaze ukuzwa ukuthi amaqembu amaningi asebenza ngokungaqondile kule phrojekthi.

(Ngokungaqondile, sisho ukusebenza ocwaningweni lwe-AI oluzogcina ludale olokuqala ubuhlakani obujwayelekile bokwenziwa (AGI), lokho kuzoholela ku-ASI yokuqala maduze nje.)

Ukuqala, uma kuziwa ezihlokweni, abaholi abacacile ocwaningweni oluthuthukisiwe lwe-AI yizinkampani eziphezulu zobuchwepheshe e-US naseChina. Ngaphambili e-US, lokhu kufaka phakathi izinkampani ezifana ne-Google, IBM, ne-Microsoft, futhi e-China, lokhu kuhlanganisa izinkampani ezifana ne-Tencent, i-Baidu, ne-Alibaba. Kodwa njengoba ukucwaninga nge-AI kubiza kakhulu uma kuqhathaniswa nokwakha okuthile okubonakalayo, njenge-reactor yenuzi engcono, lena futhi inkundla izinhlangano ezincane ezingaqhudelana kuyo, njengamanyuvesi, iziqalo, kanye ... Leyo).

Kepha ngemuva kwezigcawu, ukusunduza kwangempela ngemuva kocwaningo lwe-AI kuvela kohulumeni namasosha abo. Umklomelo wezomnotho nezempi wokuba ngowokuqala ukudala i-ASI mikhulu kakhulu (echazwe ngezansi) ukubeka engcupheni yokusalela emuva. Futhi izingozi zokuba ngowokugcina azamukelekile, okungenani emibusweni ethile.

Uma kubhekwa lezi zici, izindleko eziphansi zokucwaninga i-AI, ukusetshenziswa okungenamkhawulo kwezentengiselwano kwe-AI ethuthukisiwe, kanye nenzuzo yezomnotho nezempi yokuba ngowokuqala ukudala i-ASI, abacwaningi abaningi be-AI bakholelwa ukuthi ukwakhiwa kwe-ASI akunakugwenywa.

Sizokwakha nini i-superintelligence yokwenziwa

Esahlukweni sethu esimayelana nama-AGI, sishilo ukuthi inhlolovo yabacwaningi be-AI abaphezulu bakholelwa kanjani ukuthi sizoyidala i-AGI yokuqala ngethemba ngo-2022, ngokweqiniso ngo-2040, futhi ngokungenathemba ngo-2075.

Futhi empilweni yethu isahluko sokugcina, sichaze ukuthi ukudala i-ASI ngokuvamile kuwumphumela wokuyalela i-AGI ukuthi izithuthukise ngokungapheli futhi iyinikeze izinsiza nenkululeko yokwenza kanjalo.

Ngalesi sizathu, ngenkathi i-AGI isengathatha amashumi ambalwa eminyaka ukuyisungula, ukwakha i-ASI kungathatha iminyaka embalwa nje ngaphezulu.

Leli phuzu lifana nomqondo 'we-computing overhang,' okuphakanyiswe kuyo iphepha, ebhalwe ngokuhlanganyela abacabangi be-AI abahamba phambili u-Luke Muehlhauser no-Nick Bostrom. Ngokuyisisekelo, uma ukwakhiwa kwe-AGI kuqhubeka nokusilela emuva kwenqubekelaphambili yamanje kumthamo wekhompiyutha, ogunyazwa uMthetho kaMoore, lapho abacwaningi sebesungula i-AGI, kuzoba namandla amaningi ekhompuyutha ashibhile atholakalayo kangangokuthi i-AGI izoba namandla. idinga ukugxumela ngokushesha ezingeni le-ASI.

Ngamanye amazwi, lapho ekugcineni ufunda izihloko zezindaba ezimemezela ukuthi inkampani ethile yezobuchwepheshe isungule i-AGI yokuqala yeqiniso, bese ulindela ukumenyezelwa kwe-ASI yokuqala kungekudala.

Ngaphakathi engqondweni ye-superintelligence yokwenziwa?

Kulungile, ngakho-ke sithole ukuthi abadlali abaningi abakhulu abanamaphakethe ajulile bacwaninga i-AI. Bese kuthi ngemuva kokusungulwa kwe-AGI yokuqala, sizobona ohulumeni bomhlaba (amasosha) bekhanyisa ngokuluhlaza ukuphushela ku-ASI maduze nje ngemuva kwalokho ukuze babe ngowokuqala ukuwina umjaho wezikhali we-AI (ASI) womhlaba wonke.

Kodwa uma le ASI isidaliwe, izocabanga kanjani? Lizofunani?

Inja enobungane, indlovu enakekelayo, irobhothi elihle—njengabantu, sinomkhuba wokuzama ukuhlobana nezinto ngokusebenzisa i-anthropology yazo, okungukuthi, ukusebenzisa izici zomuntu ezintweni nasezilwaneni. Kungakho umcabango wokuqala wemvelo abantu ababa nawo lapho becabanga nge-ASI ukuthi uma ngandlela thize ithola ukwazi, izocabanga futhi iziphathe ngendlela efanayo nathi.

Hhayi-ke, akunjalo.

ukubona. Kokunye, iningi elivame ukukhohlwa ukuthi umbono uhlobene. Izindlela esicabanga ngazo zilolongwa indawo esihlala kuyo, ulwazi lwethu, futhi ikakhulukazi yisayensi yezinto eziphilayo. Kuqale kuchazwe ku isahluko sesithathu bakithi Ikusasa Lokuziphendukela Kwabantu uchungechunge, cabangela isibonelo sobuchopho bethu:

Ubuchopho bethu busisiza ukuba siqonde umhlaba osizungezile. Futhi akwenzi lokhu ngokuntanta ngaphezu kwamakhanda ethu, siqalaze, futhi asilawule ngesilawuli se-Xbox; ikwenza lokhu ngokuvaleleka ngaphakathi kwebhokisi (ama-noggins ethu) futhi icubungule noma yiluphi ulwazi olunikezwa ezithweni zethu zezinzwa—amehlo ethu, ikhala, izindlebe, njll.

Kodwa njengoba izithulu noma izimpumputhe ziphila izimpilo ezincane kakhulu uma ziqhathaniswa nabantu abanamandla, ngenxa yemikhawulo yokukhubazeka kwabo kubeka endleleni abangawubona ngayo umhlaba, kungashiwo okufanayo kubo bonke abantu ngenxa yokulinganiselwa kwethu okuyisisekelo. isethi yezitho zezinzwa.

Cabanga ngalokhu: Amehlo ethu abona amaza okukhanya angaphansi kwengxenye yezigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyishumi. Asikwazi ukubona imisebe ye-gamma. Asikwazi ukubona ama-x-ray. Asikwazi ukubona ukukhanya kwe-ultraviolet. Futhi ungangiqalisi nge-infrared, ama-microwaves, namaza omsakazo!

Konke kuhlehlisela eceleni, cabanga ukuthi impilo yakho izoba njani, ukuthi ungawubona kanjani umhlaba, indlela ingqondo yakho engasebenza ngayo uma ubungabona okungaphezu kokukhanya okuncane amehlo akho akuvumelayo njengamanje. Ngokufanayo, cabanga ukuthi ubungawubona kanjani umhlaba ukube inzwa yakho yokuhogela ingalingana neyenja noma inzwa yakho yokuzwa ilingana neyendlovu.

Njengabantu, empeleni sibona umhlaba ngembobo yokubuka, futhi lokho kubonakala emiqondweni esiyiguqulile ukuze senze umqondo walowo mbono olinganiselwe.

Ngaleso sikhathi, i-ASI yokuqala izozalwa ngaphakathi kwe-supercomputer. Esikhundleni sezitho, okokufaka ezokufinyelela kufaka phakathi amasethi edatha amakhulu, okungenzeka (okungenzeka) ngisho nokufinyelela ku-inthanethi ngokwayo. Abacwaningi bangayinikeza ukufinyelela kumakhamera we-CCTV nemakrofoni yedolobha lonke, idatha yezinzwa evela kuma-drones namasathelayithi, ngisho nohlobo lomzimba werobhothi noma imizimba.

Njengoba ungase ucabange, ingqondo ezalwa ngaphakathi kwe-supercomputer, enokufinyelela okuqondile ku-inthanethi, ezigidini zamehlo nezindlebe zika-elekthronikhi kanye nohlu lonke lwezinye izinzwa ezithuthukisiwe ngeke nje icabange ngendlela ehlukile kunathi, kodwa ingqondo engenza umqondo. kuzo zonke lezo zinzwa kuzofanele zibe ngaphezu kwethu ngokungenamkhawulo. Lona umqondo ongeke uhluke ngokuphelele kowethu kanye nanoma iyiphi enye indlela yokuphila emhlabeni.

Imigomo. Enye into abantu abayicabangayo ukuthi uma i-ASI isifinyelele izinga elithile lobuhlakani obumangalisayo, izobona ngokushesha isifiso sokuqhamuka nezinhloso nezinhloso zayo. Kodwa lokho akulona iqiniso ngempela.

Abacwaningi abaningi be-AI bakholelwa ukuthi ubuhlakani be-ASI kanye nezinhloso zayo “zingokwe-orthogonal,” okusho ukuthi, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ihlakaniphe kangakanani, imigomo ye-ASI izohlala injalo. 

Ngakho-ke noma ngabe i-AI yadalelwa ekuqaleni ukuze idizayine inabukeni elingcono, ikhulise imbuyiselo emakethe yamasheya, noma ihlele izindlela zokunqoba isitha enkundleni yempi, uma isifinyelele ezingeni le-ASI, umgomo wasekuqaleni ngeke ushintshe; okuzoshintsha ukusebenza kahle kwe-ASI ukuze kufinyelelwe leyo migomo.

Kodwa nansi ingozi. Uma i-ASI ezithuthukisa ifinyelele umgomo othile, khona-ke kungcono siqiniseke ukuthi ifinyelela umgomo ohambisana nemigomo yomuntu. Uma kungenjalo, imiphumela ingaphenduka ibulale.

Ingabe i-superintelligence yokwenziwa ibeka ingozi ekhona esintwini?

Manje kuthiwani uma i-ASI idedelwa emhlabeni? Uma ilungiselela ukubusa imakethe yamasheya noma ukuqinisekisa ukuphakama kwezempi yase-US, ngeke yini i-ASI izibambele yona ngaphakathi kwaleyo migomo ethile?

Ngokunokwenzeka.

Kuze kube manje sixoxile ngokuthi i-ASI izokhathazeka kanjani ngemigomo eyabelwe yona ekuqaleni futhi inekhono elingenabuntu ekuphishekeleni leyo migomo. Okubambekayo ukuthi i-ejenti ephusile izophishekela izinjongo zayo ngezindlela eziphumelela kakhulu ngaphandle uma inikezwe isizathu sokungakwenzi lokho.

Isibonelo, umenzeli ophusile uzoqhamuka nohlu lwamagoli amancane (okungukuthi izinjongo, izinjongo zamathuluzi, amatshe okunyathela) azoyisiza endleleni yayo yokufinyelela umgomo wayo omkhulu. Kubantu, umgomo wethu oyinhloko wokungazi lutho uwukukhiqiza kabusha, ukudlulisa ufuzo lwakho (okungukuthi ukungafi okungaqondile). Amagoli amancane aleso siphetho ngokuvamile angahlanganisa:

• Ukusinda, ngokuthola ukudla namanzi, ukukhula okukhulu nokuba namandla, ukufunda ukuzivikela noma ukutshala izimali ezinhlotsheni ezihlukahlukene zokuvikela, njll. 
• Ukuheha umngane womshado, ngokuzikhandla, ukuthuthukisa ubuntu obuhehayo, ukugqoka isitayela, njll.
• Ukuthola inzalo, ngokuthola imfundo, ukuthola umsebenzi okhokha kakhulu, ukuthenga izingibe zokuphila ezisezingeni eliphakathi, njll.

Kwabaningi bethu, sizoyigqilaza yonke le migomo emincane, kanye nabanye abaningi, ngethemba lokuthi ekugcineni, sizowufeza lo mgomo wokugcina wokukhiqiza kabusha.

Kodwa uma lo mgomo omkhulu, noma eminye yemigomo ebaluleke kakhulu, ibisongelwa, iningi lethu lingathatha izinyathelo zokuzivikela ngaphandle kwezindawo zethu zokunethezeka zokuziphatha—okuhlanganisa ukukopela, ukweba, noma ngisho nokubulala.

Ngokufanayo, ezilwaneni, ngaphandle kwemingcele yokuziphatha kwabantu, izilwane eziningi ngeke zicabange kabili ngokubulala noma yini esongela zona noma inzalo yazo.

I-ASI yesikhathi esizayo ngeke ihluke.

Kodwa esikhundleni senzalo, i-ASI izogxila emgomweni wokuqala eyadalelwa yona, futhi ekuphishekeleni lo mgomo, uma ithola iqembu elithile labantu, noma ngisho sonke isintu, iyisithiyo ekuphishekeleni izinhloso zayo. , bese ... izokwenza isinqumo esiphusile.

(Lapha yilapho ungaxhuma khona noma yisiphi isimo esihlobene ne-AI, usuku lwembubhiso ofunde ngaso ebhukwini lakho eliyintandokazi le-sci-fi noma ifilimu.)

Lesi yisimo esibi kakhulu abacwaningi be-AI abakhathazeke kakhulu ngaso. I-ASI ngeke yenze ngenxa yenzondo noma ububi, ukungabi nandaba nje nokuthi ithimba labakhi ngeke licabange kabili mayelana nokubhuqa igquma lezintuthwane ngesikhathi sokwakha umbhoshongo omusha we-condo.

Inothi eseceleni. Kuleli qophelo, abanye benu bangase bazibuze, "Abakwazi yini abacwaningi be-AI ukuhlela imigomo eyinhloko ye-ASI ngemva kweqiniso uma sithola ukuthi iyasebenza?"

Akunjalo Empeleni.

Uma i-ASI isivuthiwe, noma yimuphi umzamo wokuhlela i(izinjongo) zayo zangempela ungase ubonakale njengosongo, futhi ongadinga izenzo ezeqisayo ukuze izivikele kuwo. Usebenzisa sonke isibonelo sokuzala komuntu sangaphambili, kucishe kube sengathi isela lisongela ukweba umntwana esibelethweni sikamama okhulelwe—ungaqiniseka ukuthi umama ubengathatha izinyathelo ezeqisayo ukuze avikele ingane yakhe.

Futhi, asikhulumi ngesibali lapha, kodwa ‘ngokuphila’, kanye nalowo oyoba ngohlakaniphe kakhulu kunabo bonke abantu emhlabeni behlangene.

Okungaziwa

Ngemuva kwenganekwane ethi Ibhokisi likaPandora kuyiqiniso elincane elaziwa abantu abavame ukulikhohlwa: ukuvula ibhokisi akunakugwenywa, uma kungenjalo nguwe kunomunye umuntu. Ulwazi olunqatshelwe lusilingo kakhulu ukuba luhlale luvalelwe unomphela.

Yingakho ukuzama ukufinyelela esivumelwaneni somhlaba wonke sokumisa lonke ucwaningo ku-AI olungase luholele ku-ASI kungenangqondo—ziningi nje izinhlangano ezisebenza kulobu buchwepheshe kokubili ngokusemthethweni nasethunzini.

Ekugcineni, asinalo ulwazi lokuthi le nhlangano entsha, le ASI izosho ukuthini emphakathini, kwezobuchwepheshe, kwezombusazwe, ukuthula nempi. Thina bantu sesizosungula umlilo futhi futhi ukuthi le ndalo isiholela kuphi akwaziwa nhlobo.

Uma sibheka emuva esahlukweni sokuqala salolu chungechunge, into eyodwa esiyazi ngokuqinisekile ukuthi ukuhlakanipha kungamandla. Ubuhlakani buwukulawula. Abantu bangavakashela izilwane eziyingozi kakhulu emhlabeni kuma-zoo abo asendaweni hhayi ngoba sinamandla ngokomzimba ukwedlula lezi zilwane, kodwa ngoba sihlakaniphe kakhulu.

Uma kubhekwa izinto ezingaba khona ezihilelekile, ze-ASI isebenzisa ubuhlakani bayo obukhulu ukwenza izenzo ezingasongela ukusinda kwesintu ngokuqondile noma ngokungaqondile, sinesibopho kithi okungenani ukuzama ukuklama izivikelo ezizovumela abantu ukuthi bahlale endaweni yomshayeli. isihlalo-lokhu yisihloko sesahluko esilandelayo.

Ikusasa lochungechunge lwe-Artificial Intelligence

I-P1: I-Artificial Intelligence ingugesi wakusasa

I-P2: I-Artificial General Intelligence yokuqala izowushintsha kanjani umphakathi

I-P3: Sizokudala kanjani i-Artificial Superintelligence yokuqala

I-P5: Abantu bazovikela kanjani ku-Artificial Superintelligence

I-P6: Ingabe abantu bayophila ngokuthula esikhathini esizayo esibuswa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa?