Uyophela nini ngempela Umhlaba?

Ukuphela koMhlaba kanye nokuphela kwesintu imiqondo emibili ehlukene. Kunezinto ezintathu kuphela ezingacekela phansi ukuphila eMhlabeni: i-asteroid enobukhulu obanele ishaya iplanethi, ilanga liyakhula libe i-Red Giant, liguqule iplanethi ibe yinkangala encibilikisiwe, noma umgodi omnyama uthwebula iplanethi.

Kusemqoka ukuqaphela, nokho, ukuthi la mathuba mancane kakhulu; okungenani, hhayi esikhathini sethu sokuphila nasezizukulwaneni ezizayo. Isibonelo, ezinyangeni ezedlule, izazi zezinkanyezi zase-Ukraine zithi i-asteroid enkulu, ebizwa ngokuthi i-2013 TV135, izoshaya uMhlaba ngo-Agasti 26, 2032, kodwa i-NASA kamuva yawuchitha lo mbono, yathi kukhona isiqiniseko esingamaphesenti angu-99.9984 sokuthi izolahlekelwa umjikelezo weplanethi. njengoba amathuba okuba nomthelela woMhlaba angu-1 kokungu-63000.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, le miphumela ayikho ezandleni zethu. Ngisho noma kungenzeka ukuthi isibhakabhaka sishaye uMhlaba, iLanga liwudle, noma imbobo emnyama iwugwinye, akukho nhlobo emandleni ethu ukuvimbela imiphumela enjalo. Ngokuphambene, nakuba kunezizathu ezingaphansi kwedlanzana zokuphela koMhlaba, ziningi, eziningi cishe amathuba angabhubhisa esintwini emhlabeni njengoba siwazi. Futhi singakwazi bavimbele.

Lokhu kuwa kwachazwa iphephabhuku lesayensi, i-Proceedings of the Royal Society, “njengokuwohloka kancane kancane [ngenxa] yendlala, izifo eziwumshayabhuqe kanye nokushoda kwezinsiza [okubangela] ukuhlakazeka kokulawula okuphakathi kwezizwe, ekhonsathini nokuphazamiseka kwezohwebo nezingxabano. phezu kwezidingo ezisabisayo ngokwandayo”. Ake sibhekisise ithiyori ngayinye ekholekayo.

Sonke isakhiwo esiyisisekelo nesimo somphakathi wethu sinephutha

Ngokocwaningo olusha olubhalwe nguSafa Motesharrei, isazi sezibalo seNational Socio-Environmental Synthesis Centre (SESYNC) kanye nethimba lososayensi bemvelo nezenhlalo, impucuko izohlala amashumi ambalwa eminyaka ngaphambi kokuthi “konke esikwaziyo nesikuthanda kakhulu ukuwa. ”.

Umbiko usola ukuphela kwempucuko esakhiweni esiyisisekelo nesimo somphakathi wethu. Ukuwa kwezinhlaka zomphakathi kuzolandela lapho izici zokuwohloka komphakathi - inani labantu, isimo sezulu, amanzi, ezolimo namandla - kuhlangana. Lokhu kuhlangana kuzoholela, ngokuka-Motesharrei, “ekunwetshweni kwezinsiza ngenxa yobunzima obubekwe emandleni okuthwala imvelo” kanye “nokuhlukaniswa kwezomnotho komphakathi ube [ocebile] kanye [ompofu]”.

Abacebile, abaqanjwe ngokuthi “ama-Elite”, balinganisela izinsiza ezifinyeleleka kwabampofu, ezaziwa nangokuthi “AmaMisa”, okubuye kushiye izinsiza ezengeziwe kwabacebile eziphakeme ngokwanele ukubacindezela (ukusebenzisa ngokweqile). Ngakho-ke, ngokusetshenziswa kwezinsiza okukhawulelwe, ukwehla kweMisa kuzokwenzeka ngokushesha okukhulu, kulandelwa ukuwa kwama-Elites, lawo, ekuqaleni aphumelele, azogcina enqotshwe ukuwa futhi.

Ubuchwepheshe bunephutha

Ngaphezu kwalokho, uMotesharei uthi ubuchwepheshe buzoyilahla impucuko ngokuqhubekayo: “Ushintsho lwezobuchwepheshe lungakhuphula ukusebenza kahle kokusetshenziswa kwezinsiza, kodwa futhi luthambekele ekukhuphuleni kokubili ukusetshenziswa kwensiza ngomuntu ngamunye kanye nesilinganiso sokukhishwa kwezinsiza, ukuze, imiphumela engekho yenqubomgomo, ukwanda ukusetshenziswa ngokuvamile kunxephezela ukwanda kokusebenza kahle kokusetshenziswa kwezinsiza”.

Ngakho-ke, lesi simo esicatshangelwayo esibi kakhulu sihilela ukuwa okungazelelwe ngenxa yendlala noma ukuwohloka komphakathi ngenxa yokusetshenziswa ngokweqile kwemithombo yemvelo. Ngakho liyini ikhambi? Ucwaningo lufuna ukuqashelwa kwenhlekelele eseduze ngabacebile kanye nokuhlelwa kabusha komphakathi ube yilungiselelo elilinganayo.

Ukungalingani kwezomnotho kuyadingeka ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukusatshalaliswa okufanele kwezinsiza kanye nokunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwezinsiza ngokusebenzisa izinsiza ezingavuseleleki kancane kanye nokunciphisa ukukhula kwenani labantu. Nokho, lokhu kuba inselele enzima. Inani labantu liyaqhubeka landa ngezinga elishaqisayo. Cishe kubantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-7.2 ngokwewashi Elidumile Lomhlaba, ukuzalwa okukodwa kwenzeka njalo ngemizuzwana eyisishiyagalombili Emhlabeni, okwandisa izimfuno zemikhiqizo namasevisi nokudala ukulahlwa okwengeziwe kanye nokuncipha kwezinsiza.

Ngalesi silinganiso, inani labantu emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi likhuphuke ngezigidigidi ezingu-2.5 ngo-2050. Futhi kusukela ngonyaka odlule, abantu basebenzisa izinsiza ezingaphezu kwalokho uMhlaba ongakwazi ukugcwalisa (izinga lezinsiza ezidingekayo ukuze kusekelwe isintu manje licishe libe yi-1.5 Earths, liya phezulu. kuya ku-2 Earths ngaphambi maphakathi naleli khulu leminyaka) kanye nokusatshalaliswa kwezinsiza ngokusobala akulingani futhi sekunesikhathi eside.

Thatha amacala amaRoma namaMeya. Ukwaziswa okungokomlando kubonisa ukuthi ukukhula nokuwohloka kwempucuko kuwumjikelezo ophindaphindayo: “Ukuwa koMbuso WaseRoma, kanye noMbuso WaseMesophothamiya owawuthuthuke ngokulinganayo (uma ungekho ngaphezulu) olinganayo (uma ungekho) nowakwaGupta, kanye nemibuso eminingi ethuthuke kangaka yaseMesophothamiya. bonke ubufakazi beqiniso lokuthi impucuko ethuthukile, eyinkimbinkimbi, eyinkimbinkimbi, futhi enobuciko ingaba kokubili intekenteke futhi ingapheli”. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lo mbiko uthi, “ukuwohloka komlando kwakuvunyelwe ukuba kwenzeke ngabathile ababonakala benganakile umkhondo wenhlekelele”. Isisho esithi, umlando uzoziphinda, ngokungangabazeki kufanelekile futhi nakuba izimpawu eziyisixwayiso zicacile, azibonwa ngenxa yokungazi, ukungazi, noma nganoma yisiphi esinye isizathu.

Izinkinga eziningi zemvelo, kuhlanganise nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni wonke, ziyiphutha

Ukuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu emhlabeni wonke nakho kuyindaba ekhulayo. Ochwepheshe esihlokweni se-Proceedings of the Royal Society besaba ukuthi ukuphazamiseka kwesimo sezulu okwandayo, ukugcwala kwe-asidi olwandle, izindawo ezifile olwandle, ukuphela kwamanzi angaphansi komhlaba kanye nokushabalala kwezitshalo nezilwane nakho kuyimbangela yokuwa kwesintu okuzayo.

Isazi sezinto eziphilayo saseCanada Wildlife Service, uNeil Dawe, siphawula ukuthi “ukukhula komnotho kuwumbhidli omkhulu wemvelo. Labo bantu abacabanga ukuthi ungaba nomnotho okhulayo kanye nendawo enempilo abalungile. Uma singanciphisi izibalo zethu, imvelo izosenzela yona … Konke kubi kakhulu futhi senza izinto ezifanayo. Ngenxa yokuthi i-ecosystem iyakwazi ukuqina, ayizijezisi ngokushesha iziphukuphuku”.

Ezinye izifundo, ezenziwe yi-KPMG kanye neHhovisi Likahulumeni Lesayensi lase-UK ngokwesibonelo, ziyavumelana nokutholwe nguMotesharei futhi ziye zaxwayisa ngokufanayo ukuthi ukuhlangana kokudla, amanzi namandla kungase kubangele izinkinga. Obunye ubufakazi bezingozi ezingase zibe khona ngonyaka wezi-2030, ngokwe-KPMG, bumi kanje: Cishe kuzoba nokwanda okungama-50% kokukhiqizwa kokudla ukuze kondle abantu abakhulayo besigaba esiphakathi; Kuzoba negebe elilinganiselwa ku-40% emhlabeni jikelele phakathi kokuhlinzekwa kwamanzi kanye nesidingo; I-Ejensi Yezamandla Yamazwe Ngamazwe ihlela ukukhuphuka okungama-40% kwamandla omhlaba; isidingo, esiqhutshwa ukukhula komnotho, ukwanda kwabantu, kanye nentuthuko kwezobuchwepheshe; Cishe abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-1 bazohlala ezindaweni ezinokucindezeleka kwamanzi; Izintengo zokudla emhlabeni wonke zizophindeka kabili; Imiphumela yokucindezelwa kwemithombo izobandakanya izingcindezi zokudla nezolimo, ukwanda kwesidingo samanzi, ukukhuphuka kwesidingo samandla kagesi, ukuncintisana ngezinsimbi namaminerali, kanye nokwanda kobuzwe bemithombo yobungozi; Ukuze ufunde kabanzi, landa umbiko ogcwele lapha.

Ngakho-ke uzobe unjani uMhlaba ngasekupheleni kwempucuko?

NgoSepthemba, i-NASA yathumela ividiyo edlula isikhathi ekhombisa ukuthi isimo sezulu esishintshayo kulindeleke ukuthi sibe nomthelela eMhlabeni kusukela manje kuze kube sekupheleni kwekhulu lama-21. Ukuze ubone ividiyo, chofoza lapha. Kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi le mibono ayizona izindaba ezihlukene; zisebenzisana zibe izinhlelo ezimbili eziyinkimbinkimbi - i-biosphere kanye nesistimu yezenhlalo-zomnotho yabantu - futhi "ukubonakaliswa okungekuhle kwalokhu kusebenzisana" "isimo esibucayi somuntu" esiqhutshwa ukugcwala ngokweqile, ukusetshenziswa ngokweqile kwemithombo yemvelo kanye nokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe obulimaza imvelo.