Tsogolo laumbanda: Tsogolo laupandu P5

The Godfather, Goodfellas, The Sopranos, Scarface, Casino, The Departed, Eastern Promises, chidwi cha anthu ndi umbanda wolinganizidwa chikuwoneka ngati chachilengedwe chifukwa cha ubale wathu wa chidani ndi dziko lapansili. Kumbali ina, timathandizira poyera upandu wolinganizidwa nthaŵi zonse pamene tikugula mankhwala ogodomalitsa kapena mabala amdima, makalabu, ndi malo osungiramo juga; panthawiyi, timatsutsa pamene ndalama zathu zamisonkho zikuimba milandu ya zigawenga. 

Umbava wolinganizidwa umawoneka ngati wopanda pake, komanso wachilengedwe movutikira mdera lathu. Zakhalapo kwa zaka mazana ambiri, mwinanso zaka zikwizikwi, malingana ndi momwe mukuzifotokozera. Monga kachilombo, nkhanza zochitidwa mwachiwembu ndikubera anthu omwe amawathandizira, koma monga valavu yotulutsa, imathandizanso misika yakuda yomwe imapereka zinthu zomwe maboma salola kapena sangakwanitse kupezera nzika zake. M'madera ndi mayiko ena, mabungwe achiwawa ndi zigawenga amatenga udindo wa boma kumene boma lachikhalidwe latha. 

Poganizira zenizeni ziwirizi, tisadabwe kuti mabungwe ena apamwamba kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi amapeza ndalama zambiri kuposa mayiko omwe asankhidwa. Ingoyang'anani Mndandanda wa Fortune mwa magulu asanu apamwamba aupandu wolinganizidwa: 

• Solntsevskaya Bratva (Russian mafia) - Ndalama: $ 8.5 biliyoni
• Yamaguchi Gumi (aka The Yakuza from Japan) - Ndalama: $6.6 biliyoni
• Camorra (mafia aku Italy-America) - Ndalama: $ 4.9 biliyoni
• Ndrangheta (gulu la anthu a ku Italy) - Ndalama: $ 4.5 biliyoni
• Sinaloa Cartel (gulu la anthu aku Mexico) - Ndalama: $ 3 biliyoni 

Kupitilira apo, aku US FBI ikuyerekeza kuti upandu wolinganizidwa padziko lonse umapanga ndalama zokwana madola 1 thililiyoni pachaka.

Ndi ndalama zonsezi, upandu wolinganizidwa sukupita kulikonse posachedwa. M'malo mwake, umbanda wolinganiza udzakhala ndi tsogolo labwino mpaka kumapeto kwa 2030s. Tiyeni tiwone zomwe zidzayendetse kukula kwake, momwe zidzakakamizika kusinthika, ndiyeno tiwona zomwe mabungwe a federal adzagwiritse ntchito powalekanitsa. 

Zochitika zomwe zikukulitsa kuchuluka kwa umbanda wolinganizidwa

Poganizira mitu yapitayi ya Tsogolo la Upandu, mungakhululukidwe kuganiza kuti umbanda, nthawi zambiri, ukupita kutheratu. Ngakhale izi ndi zoona m'kupita kwanthawi, zoona zake zazifupi ndizakuti umbanda, makamaka wamitundu yosiyanasiyana, upindula ndikutukuka kuchokera kuzinthu zingapo zoyipa pakati pa 2020 mpaka 2040. 

Kutsika kwachuma kwamtsogolo. Monga lamulo, kutsika kwachuma kumatanthawuza bizinesi yabwino kwa umbanda wolinganiza. M’nthaŵi zosatsimikizirika, anthu amathaŵira ku kuwonjezereka kwa kumwa mankhwala osokoneza bongo, limodzinso ndi kutenga nawo mbali m’mabwalo obetcha mobisa ndi kutchova njuga, zinthu zimene magulu a zigawenga amachita kwambiri. Kuphatikiza apo, panthawi zovuta ambiri amatembenukira kwa obwereketsa kuti alipire ngongole zadzidzidzi - ndipo ngati mudawonera kanema wamatsenga, mukudziwa kuti lingaliro silimayenda bwino. 

Mwamwayi mabungwe azigawenga, komanso mwatsoka pazachuma padziko lonse lapansi, kutsika kwachuma kudzakhala kofala kwambiri mzaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi makamaka chifukwa cha automation. Monga tafotokozera m'mutu XNUMX wa nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Ntchito nkhani, peresenti 47 ntchito zamasiku ano zidzatha pofika chaka cha 2040, pamene chiwerengero cha anthu padziko lonse chikuyembekezeka kukwera kufika mabiliyoni asanu ndi anayi pofika chaka chomwecho. Ngakhale mayiko otukuka atha kugonjetsa makina pogwiritsa ntchito njira zachitukuko monga Zowonjezera Zachilengedwe, mayiko ambiri amene akutukuka kumene (amene akuyembekezeranso kuwonjezereka kwa chiwerengero cha anthu) sadzakhala ndi ndalama zothandizira boma ngati zimenezi. 

Mpaka pano, popanda kukonzanso kwakukulu kwa kayendetsedwe ka chuma padziko lonse lapansi, theka la anthu azaka zogwira ntchito padziko lapansi akhoza kukhala opanda ntchito ndi kudalira boma. Izi zitha kusokoneza chuma chambiri chotengera kunja, zomwe zingayambitse kutsika kwachuma padziko lonse lapansi. 

Kuzembetsa ndi kuzembetsa. Kaya ndikuzembetsa mankhwala osokoneza bongo ndi kugwetsa katundu, kuzembera anthu othawa kwawo kudutsa malire, kapena kuzembetsa amayi ndi ana, chuma chikalowa m'mavuto, mayiko akagwa (monga Syria ndi Libya), komanso madera akamakumana ndi masoka owononga zachilengedwe, ndipamene magulu a zigawenga amathandizira. mabungwe amapita patsogolo. 

Tsoka ilo, zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi zidzawona dziko lomwe mikhalidwe itatuyi idzakhala yofala. Pakuti pamene kugwa kwachuma kukuchulukirachulukira, momwemonso chiwopsezo cha mayiko kugwa. Ndipo pamene zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo zikuipiraipira, tidzaonanso kuchuluka kwa zinthu zoopsa zokhudzana ndi nyengo zikuchulukirachulukira, zomwe zikuchititsa kuti mamiliyoni ambiri othawa kwawo chifukwa cha kusintha kwa nyengo.

Nkhondo ya ku Syria ndi chitsanzo chake: Kusauka kwachuma, chilala chosatha, komanso kukwera kwa mikangano yamagulu kunayambitsa nkhondo yomwe, kuyambira Seputembara 2016, idapangitsa kuti omenyera nkhondo ndi mabungwe azigawenga kulanda mphamvu m'dziko lonselo. komanso mamiliyoni othaŵa kwawo amene akusowetsa mtendere ku Ulaya ndi ku Middle East—ambiri a iwonso agwa m'manja mwa ogulitsa. 

Tsogolo linalephera mayiko. Kupititsa patsogolo mfundo yomwe ili pamwambayi, pamene mayiko afooka chifukwa cha mavuto azachuma, masoka achilengedwe, kapena nkhondo, zimatsegula mwayi kwa magulu a zigawenga kuti agwiritse ntchito ndalama zawo zosungiramo ndalama kuti apeze chisonkhezero pakati pa anthu apamwamba m'zandale, zachuma ndi zankhondo. Kumbukirani, boma likadzalephera kulipira antchito ake, adati ogwira ntchito m'boma adzakhala omasuka kulandira thandizo kuchokera kumabungwe akunja kuti awathandize kuika chakudya m'mbale za mabanja awo. 

Izi ndizomwe zakhala zikuchitika ku Africa konse, madera ena a Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon), ndipo, kuyambira 2016, kudera lalikulu la South America (Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela). Pamene mayiko akukhala osasunthika m'zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi, chuma cha mabungwe ophwanya malamulo omwe amagwira ntchito mkati mwawo chidzakula pang'onopang'ono. 

Kuthamanga kwagolide kwa Cybercrime. Zokambidwa mu mutu wachiwiri za mndandanda uwu, 2020s adzakhala golide kuthamangitsa cybercrime. Popanda kubwerezanso mutu wonsewo, pofika kumapeto kwa 2020s, anthu pafupifupi mabiliyoni atatu kumayiko omwe akutukuka kumene azitha kugwiritsa ntchito intaneti koyamba. Ogwiritsa ntchito intaneti omwe angoyamba kumenewa akuyimira tsiku lolipira mtsogolo kwa azambanja pa intaneti, makamaka popeza mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene omwe azabera awa akufuna sadzakhala ndi zida zoteteza pa intaneti zomwe zikufunika kuteteza nzika zawo. Zowonongeka zambiri zichitika pamaso pa akuluakulu aukadaulo, monga Google, njira zama injiniya zoperekera ntchito zaulere zachitetezo cha pa intaneti kumayiko omwe akutukuka kumene. 

Engineering kupanga mankhwala. Zokambidwa mu mutu wapita za mndandandawu, kupita patsogolo kwaposachedwa monga CRISPR (yofotokozedwa mu mutu wachitatu zathu Tsogolo la Thanzi series) idzathandiza asayansi omwe ali ndi ndalama zaupandu kupanga mitundu yosiyanasiyana ya zomera ndi mankhwala okhala ndi psychoactive. Mankhwalawa amatha kupangidwa kuti akhale ndi masitayelo apadera kwambiri ndipo opangidwa amatha kupangidwa mochulukira m'malo osungira akutali - othandiza chifukwa maboma m'maiko omwe akutukuka kumene akupita patsogolo pakupeza ndi kuthetseratu minda ya mbewu za narcotic.

Momwe umbanda wolinganiza udzasinthira motsutsana ndi apolisi othandizidwa ndiukadaulo

M'mitu yapitayi, tidasanthula zaukadaulo zomwe zitha kutha kuba, umbanda wapaintaneti, komanso zachiwawa. Kupita patsogolo kumeneku kudzakhudza kwambiri zaumbanda, kukakamiza atsogoleri ake kusintha momwe amagwirira ntchito komanso mitundu yamilandu yomwe amasankha kuchita. Zotsatirazi zikuwonetsa momwe mabungwe achifwamba awa angasinthire kuti asatsogolere lamuloli.

Imfa ya chigawenga chokha. Chifukwa cha kupita patsogolo kwakukulu mu nzeru zopangapanga (AI), deta yayikulu, ukadaulo wa CCTV, intaneti ya Zinthu, zopanga zokha, komanso zikhalidwe zachikhalidwe, masiku a chigawenga chaching'ono awerengedwa. Kaya zigawenga zapachikhalidwe kapena zapaintaneti, zonse zikhala zowopsa kwambiri ndipo zopindula ndizochepa kwambiri. Pachifukwa ichi, anthu otsala omwe ali ndi chilimbikitso, chizoloŵezi, ndi luso laupandu angayambe kugwira ntchito ndi mabungwe achigawenga omwe ali ndi zofunikira zochepetsera mtengo ndi zoopsa zomwe zimakhudzidwa ndi mitundu yambiri ya zigawenga.

Mabungwe ochita zachiwembu amakhala m'malo awo komanso ogwirizana. Pofika kumapeto kwa zaka za m'ma 2020, kupita patsogolo kwa AI ndi zidziwitso zazikuluzikulu zomwe tazitchula pamwambapa zithandiza apolisi ndi mabungwe azidziwitso padziko lonse lapansi kuzindikira ndikutsata anthu ndi katundu wokhudzana ndi mabungwe achifwamba padziko lonse lapansi. Komanso, popeza mapangano a mayiko aŵiri ndi a mayiko ambiri akupangitsa kukhala kosavuta kwa mabungwe azamalamulo kuthamangitsa zigawenga kudutsa malire, zidzakhala zovuta kwambiri kuti mabungwe apandu apitirizebe kuchita zinthu padziko lonse lapansi m’zaka zonse za m’ma 20. 

Zotsatira zake, mabungwe ambiri achifwamba amatembenukira mkati, akugwira ntchito m'malire adziko lawo osalumikizana pang'ono ndi mabungwe awo apadziko lonse lapansi. Kuphatikiza apo, kukakamizidwa kwa apolisi kumeneku kungalimbikitse kuchuluka kwa malonda ndi mgwirizano pakati pa mabungwe omwe akupikisana nawo achifwamba kuti achotse ziwopsezo zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira zomwe zikufunika kuthana ndiukadaulo wamtsogolo. 

Ndalama zaupandu zinabwereranso m'mabizinesi ovomerezeka. Pamene apolisi ndi mabungwe azidziwitso ayamba kugwira ntchito bwino, mabungwe achifwamba amafunafuna njira zatsopano zopangira ndalama zawo. Mabungwe olumikizidwa bwino awonjezera ndalama zawo za ziphuphu kuti alipire andale ndi apolisi okwanira kuti apitilize kugwira ntchito popanda kuzunzidwa ... kwakanthawi. M'kupita kwa nthawi, mabungwe apandu adzaika gawo lalikulu la ndalama zomwe amapeza pazachuma. Ngakhale kuli kovuta kulingalira lerolino, njira yowona mtimayi ingokhala njira yosakanizidwa pang'ono, kupatsa mabungwe azigawenga kubweza bwino pazachuma zawo poyerekeza ndi zigawenga zomwe luso la apolisi lingapangitse kukhala lokwera mtengo komanso lowopsa.

Kuthetsa upandu wolinganizidwa

Mutu waukulu wa nkhanizi ndi wakuti tsogolo la umbanda ndilo kutha kwa umbanda. Ndipo zikafika pa zaupandu wolinganiza, ichi ndi tsoka lomwe iwo sadzathawa. Zaka khumi zilizonse zomwe zikupita patsogolo, apolisi ndi mabungwe azidziwitso awona kusintha kwakukulu pakutolera kwawo, kulinganiza, ndi kusanthula deta m'magawo osiyanasiyana, kuyambira pazachuma mpaka pazama media, kuyambira kugulitsa nyumba kupita ku malonda ogulitsa, ndi zina zambiri. Makompyuta akuluakulu apolisi amtsogolo adzasanthula zonse zazikuluzikuluzi kuti alekanitse zigawenga ndipo kuchokera pamenepo, azipatula zigawenga ndi maukonde omwe akuwatsogolera.

Mwachitsanzo, mutu wachinayi zathu Tsogolo la Apolisi Nkhani zotsatizanazi zinakambitsirana za momwe mabungwe apolisi padziko lonse lapansi ayambira kugwiritsa ntchito pulogalamu yolosera zaupandu —ichi ndi chida chomwe chimamasulira malipoti azaka zazaka zambiri, kuphatikiza ndi zenizeni zenizeni zakutawuni, kulosera za kuthekera ndi mtundu wa zigawenga zomwe zingachitike. pa nthawi ina iliyonse, m’mbali iliyonse ya mzinda. Maofesi apolisi amagwiritsa ntchito izi kuti atumize apolisi m'matauni omwe ali pachiwopsezo kuti athe kuthana ndi umbanda momwe zimachitikira kapena kuwopseza omwe angakhale zigawenga zonse. 

Momwemonso, akatswiri ankhondo zikukula mapulogalamu omwe amatha kulosera zamagulu am'misewu. Pomvetsetsa bwino izi, mabungwe apolisi adzakhala okonzeka kusokoneza ndi kumangidwa kwakukulu. Ndipo ku Italy, gulu la anthu akatswiri opanga mapulogalamu adapangidwa nkhokwe yapakati, yosavuta kugwiritsa ntchito, nthawi yeniyeni, yosungiramo zinthu zonse zolandidwa ndi akuluakulu aku Italy ku Mafia. Mabungwe apolisi ku Italy tsopano akugwiritsa ntchito nkhokweyi kuti agwirizanitse bwino ntchito yawo yolimbana ndi magulu ambiri achifwamba m'dziko lawo. 

Zitsanzo zochepazi ndi chitsanzo choyambirira cha mapulojekiti ambiri omwe akuchitika kuti akhazikitse malamulo olimbana ndi umbanda. Tekinoloje yatsopanoyi idzatsitsa mtengo wofufuza mabungwe ovuta kwambiri ndikupangitsa kuti zikhale zosavuta kuwaimba mlandu. M'malo mwake, pofika chaka cha 2040, ukadaulo wowunikira ndi kusanthula zomwe zidzakhalepo kwa apolisi zipangitsa kuti kuyendetsa gulu lachigawenga lapakati kukhala kosatheka. Chokhacho chokha, monga momwe zimakhalira nthawi zonse, ndi chakuti dziko liri ndi ndale zopanda ziphuphu zokwanira komanso akuluakulu apolisi omwe akufuna kugwiritsa ntchito zipangizozi kuthetsa mabungwewa kamodzi kokha.

Tsogolo la Upandu

Mapeto akuba: Tsogolo laupandu P1

Tsogolo la Cybercrime ndi kutha kwamtsogolo: Tsogolo laupandu P2.

Tsogolo laumbanda: Tsogolo laupandu P3

Momwe anthu adzakwera mu 2030: Tsogolo laupandu P4

Mndandanda wamilandu ya sci-fi yomwe itheka pofika 2040: Tsogolo laumbanda P6