Quantumrun

ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

Infrastructure 3.0, kumanganso mizinda ikuluikulu ya mawa: Tsogolo la Mizinda P6

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 08:56

Anthu 200,000 amasamukira kumizinda tsiku lililonse padziko lonse lapansi. Pafupifupi peresenti 70 Padziko lonse lapansi adzakhala m’mizinda podzafika 2050, pafupifupi 90 peresenti ku North America ndi ku Ulaya.

Vutolo?

Mizinda yathu sinapangidwe kuti igwirizane ndi kuchuluka kwa anthu omwe tsopano akukhazikika m'malo awo. Zomangamanga zazikulu zomwe mizinda yathu yambiri imadalira kuti zithandizire anthu omwe akuchulukirachulukira zidamangidwa zaka 50 mpaka 100 zapitazo. Kuphatikiza apo, mizinda yathu idamangidwa kuti ikhale ndi nyengo yosiyana kotheratu komanso yosasinthidwa bwino chifukwa cha zochitika zanyengo zomwe zikuchitika masiku ano, ndipo izi zipitilira kuchitika m'zaka zikubwerazi pomwe kusintha kwanyengo kukukulirakulira.

Ponseponse, kuti mizinda yathu - nyumba zathu - zipulumuke ndikukula mpaka zaka zana zikubwerazi, ziyenera kumangidwanso mwamphamvu komanso mokhazikika. M'kati mwa mutu womaliza wa mndandanda wathu wa Future of Cities, tiwona njira ndi zochitika zomwe zikuyendetsa kubadwanso kwamizinda yathu.

Zomangamanga zikuwonongeka pozungulira ife

Ku New York City (ziwerengero za 2015), pali masukulu opitilira 200 omwe adamangidwa zaka za m'ma 1920 zisanachitike komanso ma mailosi opitilira 1,000 amadzi ndi milatho 160 yomwe ili ndi zaka zopitilira 100. Mwa milathoyi, kafukufuku wa 2012 adapeza kuti 47 onse anali osowa mwadongosolo komanso osweka kwambiri. Njira yosainira ya subway mainline ku NY ikupitilira zaka zake 50 zothandiza. Ngati zowola zonsezi zili mu umodzi mwa mizinda yolemera kwambiri padziko lapansi, mungaganize bwanji za mmene kukonzanso kwa mzinda wanu kulili?

Kaŵirikaŵiri, zomangira zopezeka m’mizinda yambiri lerolino zinamangidwa m’zaka za zana la 20; tsopano vuto lili m'mene timachitira kukonzanso kapena kukonzanso zomangamanga m'zaka za zana la 21. Izi sizikhala zosavuta. Mndandanda wa kukonza zofunika kukwaniritsa cholinga ichi ndi wautali. Mwachiwonetsero, 75 peresenti ya zomangamanga zomwe zidzakhalepo pofika 2050 kulibe lero.

Ndipo si m’maiko otukuka okha kumene zomangamanga zikusowa; wina angatsutse kuti chosowacho chikukakamiza kwambiri mayiko omwe akutukuka kumene. Misewu, misewu yayikulu, njanji zothamanga kwambiri, matelefoni, mapaipi ndi zimbudzi, madera ena ku Africa ndi Asia amafunikira ntchitozo.

Malinga ndi lipoti ndi Navigant Research, mu 2013, nyumba zomanga padziko lonse lapansi zidakwana 138.2 biliyoni m2, pomwe 73% yake inali mnyumba zogona. Chiwerengerochi chidzakula kufika pa 171.3 biliyoni m2 m'zaka 10 zikubwerazi, kukulirakulira pa chiwonjezeko chapachaka chopitirira pawiri peresenti-zambiri mwa kukula kumeneku zidzachitika ku China kumene 2 biliyoni m2 ya nyumba zogona ndi zamalonda zikuwonjezeredwa chaka chilichonse.

Ponseponse, 65 peresenti ya kukula kwa ntchito zomanga padziko lonse lapansi kwazaka khumi zikubwerazi zidzachitika m'misika yomwe ikubwera, ndi ndalama zosachepera $ 1 thililiyoni pazachuma zapachaka zomwe zikufunika kuthetsa kusiyana ndi mayiko otukuka.

Zida zatsopano zomangiranso ndikusintha maziko

Mofanana ndi nyumba, zomangamanga zathu zamtsogolo zidzapindula kwambiri ndi zomanga zomwe zafotokozedwa poyamba mutu wachitatu za mndandanda uno. Zowonjezera izi zimaphatikizapo kugwiritsa ntchito:

Zida zomangira zapamwamba zomwe zimalola ogwira ntchito yomanga kupanga zomanga monga kugwiritsa ntchito zidutswa za Lego.
Ogwira ntchito yomanga ma robotiki omwe amawonjezera (ndipo nthawi zina amalowetsa) ntchito ya ogwira ntchito yomanga, kukonza chitetezo cha malo ogwirira ntchito, liwiro la zomangamanga, kulondola, komanso mtundu wonse.
Makina osindikizira a 3D omanga omwe adzagwiritse ntchito njira yopangira zowonjezera kuti amange nyumba zazikuluzikulu zamoyo ndi nyumba potsanulira simenti-ndi-wosanjikiza m'njira yoyendetsedwa bwino.
Zomangamanga za Aleatory—njira yomangira m’tsogolo kwambiri —imene imathandiza akatswiri okonza mapulani kuti ayang’ane kwambiri kamangidwe ka nyumba yomaliza, kenako n’kupanga maloboti kuti akhalepo pogwiritsa ntchito zinthu zomangira zomwe anazipanga.

Kumbali ya zida, zatsopano zikuphatikiza kupita patsogolo kwa konkriti yomanga ndi mapulasitiki omwe ali ndi zinthu zapadera. Zatsopano zoterezi zimaphatikizapo konkire yatsopano yamisewu yomwe ili modabwitsa permeable, kulola madzi kudutsa mmenemo kupeŵa kusefukira kwa madzi kapena mikhalidwe yoterera. Chitsanzo china ndi konkire yomwe imatha kudzichiritsa nokha kuchokera ku ming'alu yobwera chifukwa cha chilengedwe kapena zivomezi.

Kodi tipereka bwanji ndalama zothandizira zomangamanga zatsopanozi?

Zikuwonekeratu kuti tikufunika kukonza ndikusintha zida zathu. Ndife amwayi kuti zaka makumi awiri zikubwerazi tiwona kukhazikitsidwa kwa zida ndi zida zatsopano zomangira. Koma kodi maboma alipira bwanji ndalama zonse za zomangamanga zatsopanozi? Ndipo potengera momwe ndale zilili komanso kusakhazikika, kodi maboma akwaniritsa bwanji ndalama zomwe zikufunika kuti tichepetse kuchepa kwathu kwa zomangamanga?

Nthawi zambiri, kupeza ndalama si nkhani. Maboma amatha kusindikiza ndalama mwakufuna kwawo ngati akuwona kuti zithandiza anthu ovota okwanira. Ichi ndichifukwa chake ntchito zachitukuko zomwe zakhala zikuchitika nthawi imodzi zakhala zomwe andale amakakamira pamaso pa ovota zisanachitike zisankho zambiri. Otsogolera ndi otsutsa nthawi zambiri amapikisana kuti ndi ndani amene adzapereke ndalama za milatho yatsopano, misewu yayikulu, masukulu, ndi masitima apamtunda wapansi panthaka, nthawi zambiri kunyalanyaza kutchulidwa kwa kukonza kosavuta kwa zomangamanga zomwe zilipo kale. (Monga lamulo, kupanga zomangamanga zatsopano kumakopa mavoti ochulukirapo kuposa kukonza zomanga zomwe zilipo kapena zosawoneka, monga ngalande zotayira ndi madzi.)

Izi zili chomwechi ndichifukwa chake njira yokhayo yopititsira patsogolo kusokonekera kwa chitukuko cha dziko lathu ndikuwonjezera chidziwitso cha anthu pankhaniyi komanso kufunitsitsa kwa anthu kuti achitepo kanthu pankhaniyi. Koma mpaka izi zitachitika, ndondomeko yokonzansoyi ikhalabe yabwino mpaka kumapeto kwa 2020s - apa ndipamene zochitika zingapo zakunja zidzatuluka, zomwe zikuyendetsa kufunikira kwa zomangamanga m'njira yaikulu.

Choyamba, maboma padziko lonse lapansi otukuka ayamba kukumana ndi ziwopsezo za ulova, makamaka chifukwa cha kukula kwa makina. Monga tafotokozera m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Ntchito mndandanda, luntha lochita kupanga komanso ma robotiki azilowa m'malo mwa anthu m'magawo osiyanasiyana komanso m'mafakitale.

Chachiwiri, kuchulukirachulukira kwanyengo ndi zochitika zidzachitika chifukwa chakusintha kwanyengo, monga tafotokozera m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Kusintha kwa Nyengo mndandanda. Ndipo pamene tikambirana m'munsimu, nyengo yoopsa idzachititsa kuti zomangamanga zomwe zilipo kale zilephereke mofulumira kwambiri kuposa momwe ma municipalities ambiri amakonzekera.

Kuti athane ndi zovuta zapawirizi, maboma osimidwa adzatembenukira ku njira yoyeserera komanso yowona - chitukuko cha zomangamanga - ndi matumba andalama ochuluka. Kutengera dziko, ndalamazi zitha kubwera kudzera mumisonkho yatsopano, ma bondi atsopano aboma, njira zatsopano zopezera ndalama (zofotokozedwa pambuyo pake) komanso mochulukirachulukira kuchokera ku mabungwe aboma ndi wamba. Mosasamala kanthu za mtengo wake, maboma adzalipira—zonse ziwiri kuti athetse chipwirikiti cha anthu chifukwa cha ulova wofala ndi kumanga zomangira zotetezera nyengo za mbadwo wotsatira.

M'malo mwake, pofika zaka za m'ma 2030, momwe zaka zogwirira ntchito zikuchulukirachulukira, ntchito zazikulu za zomangamanga zitha kuyimira imodzi mwazinthu zomaliza zothandizidwa ndi boma zomwe zitha kupanga mazana masauzande a ntchito zosatumizidwa kunja kwakanthawi kochepa.

Kutsimikizira nyengo mizinda yathu

Pofika m'zaka za m'ma 2040, kusintha kwa nyengo ndi zochitika zidzagogomezera zomangamanga za mzinda wathu kuti zithe. Madera omwe akuvutika ndi kutentha kwambiri amatha kuona misewu yawo ikuphwanyidwa kwambiri, kuchulukana kwa magalimoto chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwa matayala ambiri, kuwonongeka kwa njanji kwa njanji, ndi zida zamagetsi zodzaza ndi zida zoziziritsira mpweya zomwe zimaphulika.

Madera omwe amakhala ndi mvula pang'ono amatha kukhala ndi chiwonjezeko chamkuntho ndi mvula yamkuntho. Mvula yamphamvu ipangitsa ngalande zotayira zodzaza kwambiri zomwe zipangitsa kuti mabiliyoni awonongeko kusefukira kwa madzi. M’nyengo yozizira, maderawa ankatha kuona chipale chofewa chadzidzidzi komanso chachikulu choyezera mamita kufika mamita.

Ndipo kwa malo okhala ndi anthu omwe amakhala m'mphepete mwa nyanja kapena madera otsika, monga dera la Chesapeake Bay ku US kapena kumwera kwa Bangladesh kapena mizinda ngati Shanghai ndi Bangkok, malowa amatha kukumana ndi mvula yamkuntho. Ndipo ngati madzi a m'nyanja akwera mofulumira kuposa momwe amayembekezera, zingayambitsenso kusamuka kwakukulu kwa anthu othawa kwawo chifukwa cha nyengo kuchokera kumadera okhudzidwawa kumtunda.

Kupatulapo zochitika zonse za tsiku la chiwonongeko, ndibwino kudziwa kuti mizinda yathu ndi zomangamanga ndizomwe zimayambitsa zonsezi.

Tsogolo ndi zomangamanga zobiriwira

47 peresenti ya mpweya wowonjezera kutentha padziko lonse umachokera ku nyumba zathu ndi zomangamanga; amawononganso 49 peresenti ya mphamvu zapadziko lonse. Zambiri mwazinthuzi komanso kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zamagetsi ndizowonongeka zomwe sizingapeweke chifukwa chosowa ndalama zopangira nyumba zambiri komanso kukonza zida. Ziliponso chifukwa cha kusakwanira kwamapangidwe kuchokera kumapangidwe akale omwe analipo mu 1920-50s, pomwe nyumba zathu zambiri zomwe zidalipo zidamangidwa.

Komabe, mkhalidwe wamakonowu umapereka mwayi. A lipoti Bungwe la National Renewable Energy Laboratory la boma la United States linawerengera kuti ngati nyumba za dzikolo zisinthidwa pogwiritsa ntchito matekinoloje atsopano osagwiritsa ntchito magetsi komanso ma code omanga, zitha kuchepetsa kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zomanga ndi 60 peresenti. Komanso, ngati mapanelo dzuwa ndi mazenera a dzuwa anawonjezedwa ku nyumba zimenezi kuti athe kupanga mphamvu zawo zambiri kapena zonse, kuti kuchepetsa mphamvu kukhoza kuwonjezeka kufika pa 88 peresenti. Pakadali pano, kafukufuku wa bungwe la United Nations Environment Programme adapeza kuti njira zofananira, ngati zitatsatiridwa padziko lonse lapansi, zitha kuchepetsa kuchuluka kwamafuta omwe amatulutsa ndikuchepetsa mphamvu yopitilira 30 peresenti.

Inde, palibe mwa izi chomwe chingakhale chotchipa. Kukhazikitsa zokometsera zofunika pakukwaniritsa zolinga zochepetsera mphamvuzi kungawononge ndalama zokwana $4 thililiyoni pazaka 40 ku US mokha ($100 biliyoni pachaka). Koma kumbali yakutsogolo, ndalama zomwe zimasungidwa kwanthawi yayitali kuchokera kuzinthu izi zitha kukhala $6.5 thililiyoni ($165 biliyoni pachaka). Pongoganiza kuti ndalamazo zimaperekedwa ndi ndalama zomwe zidzasungidwe m'tsogolomu, kukonzanso kwachitukukoku kumabweretsa kubweza kochititsa chidwi pazachuma.

Ndipotu, mtundu uwu wandalama, wotchedwa Mgwirizano Wogawana Ndalama, komwe zida zimayikidwa ndikulipiridwa ndi wogwiritsa ntchito kumapeto kudzera mu ndalama zomwe zimaperekedwa ndi zida zomwe zanenedwa, ndizomwe zikuyendetsa kukwera kwa dzuwa kumadera ambiri a North America ndi Europe. Makampani monga Ameresco, SunPower Corp., ndi Elon Musk ogwirizana ndi SolarCity agwiritsa ntchito mapangano azandalamawa kuti athandize eni nyumba zikwizikwi kuchoka pagululi ndikutsitsa ndalama zawo zamagetsi. Momwemonso, Green Mortgages ndi chida chothandizira ndalama chofanana chomwe chimalola mabanki ndi makampani ena obwereketsa kuti apereke chiwongola dzanja chochepa kwa mabizinesi ndi eni nyumba omwe amayika ma solar.

mabiliyoni kuti apange mabiliyoni ambiri

Padziko lonse lapansi, kuchepa kwathu kwa zomangamanga padziko lonse lapansi kukuyembekezeka kufika $15-20 thililiyoni pofika 2030. kutseka kusiyana uku kungapangitse mpaka 100 miliyoni ntchito zatsopano ndi kupanga $6 thililiyoni pachaka mu ntchito zatsopano zachuma.

Ichi ndichifukwa chake maboma omwe ali ndi chidwi omwe amabwezeretsanso nyumba zomwe zidalipo ndikusintha malo okalamba sangangopangitsa msika wawo wogwira ntchito komanso mizinda kuti iziyenda bwino m'zaka za zana la 21 koma azichita izi pogwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zocheperako komanso kutulutsa mpweya wochepa kwambiri m'malo athu. Ponseponse, kuyika ndalama pazomangamanga ndikupambana pazinthu zonse, koma zidzatengera kukhudzidwa kwakukulu kwa anthu komanso ndale kuti izi zitheke.