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Lamulo la Moore lomwe likuwonongeka kuti liyambitse kuganiziranso kofunikira kwa ma microchips: Tsogolo la Makompyuta P4

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 15:39

Makompyuta - ali ngati chinthu chachikulu. Koma kuti tiyamikire zomwe zikuchitika zomwe tafotokoza mpaka pano mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Makompyuta, tifunikanso kumvetsetsa zakusintha komwe kukuchitika, kapena mophweka: tsogolo la ma microchips.

Kuti tipeze zofunikira panjira, tiyenera kumvetsetsa Chilamulo cha Moore, lamulo lodziwika tsopano Dr. Gordon E. Moore lomwe linakhazikitsidwa mu 1965. Kwenikweni, zomwe Moore anazindikira zaka makumi angapo zapitazo ndikuti chiwerengero cha transistors mu dera lophatikizika limawirikiza kawiri. miyezi 18 mpaka 24 iliyonse. Ichi ndichifukwa chake kompyuta yomweyo yomwe mumagula lero kwa $1,000 idzakutengerani $500 zaka ziwiri kuchokera pano.

Kwa zaka zopitirira makumi asanu, makampani opanga ma semiconductor akhala akutsatira ndondomeko yowonjezereka ya lamuloli, ndikutsegulira njira zatsopano zogwirira ntchito, masewera a kanema, mavidiyo owonetsera, mapulogalamu a m'manja, ndi teknoloji ina iliyonse ya digito yomwe yatanthawuza chikhalidwe chathu chamakono. Koma ngakhale kufunikira kwa kukula uku kumawoneka ngati kudzakhalabe kokhazikika kwa theka lina lazaka, silicon - zinthu zoyambira zomwe ma microchips amakono amamangidwa - sizikuwoneka ngati zidzakwaniritsa kufunikira kwa nthawi yayitali 2021 - malinga ndi lipoti lomaliza kuchokera kwa International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)

Ndi physics kwenikweni: makampani opangira semiconductor akucheperachepera mpaka masikelo a atomiki, sikelo ya silikoni posachedwa ikhala yosayenera. Ndipo makampaniwa akamayesa kuchepetsa silicon kuti ipitirire malire ake, m'pamenenso kusintha kwa microchip kudzakhala kokwera mtengo kwambiri.

Apa ndi pamene ife tiri lero. M'zaka zingapo, silicon sidzakhalanso zinthu zotsika mtengo zopangira m'badwo wotsatira wa ma microchips apamwamba kwambiri. Malire awa adzakakamiza kusintha kwamagetsi pokakamiza makampani opanga ma semiconductor (ndi gulu) kusankha pakati pa zosankha zingapo:

Njira yoyamba ndikuchepetsa, kapena kutha, chitukuko chokwera mtengo kuti mupititse patsogolo silicon pang'ono, m'malo mwa kupeza njira zatsopano zopangira ma microchips omwe amapanga mphamvu zochulukira popanda kuwonjezera miniaturization.
Chachiwiri, pezani zida zatsopano zomwe zitha kusinthidwa pamasikelo ang'onoang'ono kwambiri kuposa silicon kuti muyike ma transistors ochulukirapo kukhala ma microchips olimba kwambiri.
Chachitatu, m'malo mongoyang'ana pa miniaturization kapena kukonza kagwiritsidwe ntchito ka mphamvu, yang'ananinso pa liwiro la kukonza popanga mapurosesa omwe ali apadera pazochitika zinazake. Izi zitha kutanthauza kuti m'malo mokhala ndi chip cha generalist, makompyuta amtsogolo atha kukhala ndi gulu la tchipisi taluso. Zitsanzo zikuphatikiza tchipisi tazithunzi zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito kukonza masewera apakanema Mau oyamba a Google ya chip ya Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) yomwe imagwira ntchito pamakina ophunzirira.
Pomaliza, pangani mapulogalamu atsopano ndi zida zamtambo zomwe zimatha kugwira ntchito mwachangu komanso moyenera popanda kufunikira ma microchips ang'onoang'ono.

Ndi njira iti yomwe makampani athu aukadaulo angasankhe? Zowona: zonse.

Njira yopulumukira ku Chilamulo cha Moore

Mndandanda wotsatirawu ndi chithunzithunzi chachidule cha opikisana nawo omwe atsala pang'ono komanso anthawi yayitali mkati mwamakampani opanga ma semiconductor omwe adzagwiritse ntchito kusunga Lamulo la Moore kukhala lamoyo. Gawoli ndi lowundana pang'ono, koma tiyesetsa kuti liwerenge.

Nanomaterials. Makampani otsogola a semiconductor, monga Intel, alengeza kale kuti atero kusiya silicon akafika masikelo ang'onoang'ono a nanometers asanu ndi awiri (7nm). Ofuna kulowa m'malo mwa silicon akuphatikizapo indium antimonide (InSb), indium gallium arsenide (InGaAs), ndi silicon-germanium (SiGe) koma zinthu zomwe zikupeza chisangalalo kwambiri zikuwoneka ngati carbon nanotubes. Wopangidwa kuchokera ku graphite -yokha mulu wazinthu zodabwitsa, ma graphene - ma nanotubes a carbon amatha kupanga maatomu okhuthala, abwino kwambiri, ndipo akuti apanga ma microchips am'tsogolo kuwirikiza kasanu pofika 2020.

Optical kompyuta. Chimodzi mwazovuta zazikulu popanga tchipisi ndikuwonetsetsa kuti ma elekitironi sadumpha kuchokera ku transistor imodzi kupita ku ina - lingaliro lomwe limavuta kwambiri mukalowa mulingo wa atomiki. Tekinoloje yomwe ikubwera ya computing ya optical imawoneka yosintha ma electron ndi ma photons, momwe kuwala (osati magetsi) kumadutsa kuchokera ku transistor kupita ku transistor. mu 2017, ofufuza anachitapo kanthu kuti akwaniritse cholinga chimenechi mwa kusonyeza luso losunga zinthu zozikidwa pa kuwala (zithunzithunzi) monga mafunde a phokoso pa chipangizo cha kompyuta. Pogwiritsa ntchito njirayi, ma microchips amatha kugwira ntchito pafupi ndi liwiro la kuwala pofika 2025.

Spintronics. Pazaka makumi awiri pakukula, ma spintronic transistors amayesa kugwiritsa ntchito 'spin' ya electron m'malo mwa mtengo wake kuti ayimire zambiri. Ngakhale akadali kutali kwambiri ndi malonda, ngati atathetsedwa, mtundu uwu wa transistor udzangofunika 10-20 millivolts kuti ugwire ntchito, mazana ang'onoang'ono kuposa transistors wamba; Izi zidzachotsanso zovuta zomwe makampani opanga ma semiconductor amakumana nazo popanga tchipisi tating'onoting'ono.

Neuromorphic computing ndi memristors. Njira ina yatsopano yothetsera vuto lomwe likubwerali lili muubongo wamunthu. Ofufuza ku IBM ndi DARPA, makamaka, akutsogolera chitukuko cha mtundu watsopano wa microchip-chip chomwe mabwalo ake ophatikizika amapangidwa kuti atsanzire njira yaubongo yokhazikika komanso yosagwirizana ndi makompyuta. (Onani izi Nkhani ya ScienceBlogs kuti amvetse bwino kusiyana kwa ubongo wa munthu ndi makompyuta.) Zotsatira zoyambirira zimasonyeza kuti tchipisi totengera ubongo singogwira ntchito mopambanitsa, koma zimagwira ntchito ndi madzi ocheperako modabwitsa kuposa ma microchip amasiku ano.

Pogwiritsa ntchito njira yomweyi yopangira ubongo, transistor yokha, mwambi womangira kachipangizo kakang'ono ka kompyuta yanu, posachedwapa ikhoza kusinthidwa ndi memristor. Pogwiritsa ntchito nthawi ya "ionics", memristor imapereka zabwino zingapo zosangalatsa kuposa transistor yachikhalidwe:

Choyamba, ma memristors amatha kukumbukira kuyenda kwa electron kumadutsa mwa iwo-ngakhale mphamvu itadulidwa. Kutanthauziridwa, izi zikutanthauza kuti tsiku lina mutha kuyatsa kompyuta yanu pa liwiro lofanana ndi la babu lanu.
Transistors ndi binary, mwina 1s kapena 0s. Memristors, panthawiyi, akhoza kukhala ndi mayiko osiyanasiyana pakati pa zovutazo, monga 0.25, 0.5, 0.747, ndi zina zotero. mwayi.
Kenako, ma memristors safuna silicon kuti agwire ntchito, kutsegulira njira kuti makampani opanga ma semiconductor ayese kugwiritsa ntchito zida zatsopano kuti apititse patsogolo ma microchips (monga tafotokozera kale).
Pomaliza, zofanana ndi zomwe zidapezeka ndi IBM ndi DARPA mu computing ya neuromorphic, ma microchips otengera ma memristors amakhala othamanga, amagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu zochepa, ndipo amatha kukhala ndi chidziwitso chambiri kuposa tchipisi chomwe chili pamsika.

Zithunzi za 3D chips. Ma microchips achikhalidwe ndi ma transistors omwe amawapatsa mphamvu amagwira ntchito pa ndege yathyathyathya, yamitundu iwiri, koma koyambirira kwa zaka za m'ma 2010, makampani opanga ma semiconductor adayamba kuyesa kuwonjezera gawo lachitatu ku tchipisi tawo. Otchedwa 'finFET', ma transistors atsopanowa ali ndi njira yomwe imachokera pamwamba pa chip, kuwapatsa mphamvu zowonjezera zomwe zimachitika mumayendedwe awo, kuwalola kuthamanga pafupifupi 40 peresenti mofulumira, ndikugwira ntchito pogwiritsa ntchito theka la mphamvu. Choyipa chake ndikuti tchipisi izi ndizovuta kwambiri (zokwera mtengo) kupanga pakadali pano.

Koma kupitirira redesigning munthu transistors, tsogolo Zithunzi za 3D chips komanso cholinga chophatikiza makompyuta ndi kusungirako deta m'magawo okhazikika. Pakalipano, makompyuta achikhalidwe amasunga zokumbukira zawo masentimita kuchokera pa purosesa yake. Koma pophatikiza zokumbukira ndi kukonza, mtunda uwu umatsika kuchokera ku ma centimita kupita ku ma micrometer, ndikupangitsa kusintha kwakukulu pakuthamanga komanso kugwiritsa ntchito mphamvu.

Makompyuta a Quantum. Kuyang'ana m'tsogolomu, gawo lalikulu la makompyuta am'mabizinesi amatha kugwira ntchito motsatira malamulo osasamala a quantum physics. Komabe, chifukwa cha kufunikira kwa makompyuta amtunduwu, tidapereka mutu wake kumapeto kwa mndandanda uno.

Super microchips si bizinesi yabwino

Chabwino, ndiye zomwe mwawerenga pamwambapa zonse ndizabwino komanso zabwino - tikulankhula ma microchips osagwiritsa ntchito mphamvu kwambiri omwe amatengera ubongo wamunthu womwe umatha kuthamanga pa liwiro la kuwala - koma chinthu ndichakuti, makampani opanga zida za semiconductor siwopanga. wofunitsitsa kusintha malingalirowa kukhala zenizeni zopangidwa mochuluka.

Zimphona zaukadaulo, monga Intel, Samsung, ndi AMD, zayika kale mabiliyoni a madola kwazaka zambiri kuti apange ma microchips achikhalidwe, opangidwa ndi silicon. Kusamukira kumalingaliro ena aliwonse omwe tawatchula pamwambapa kungatanthauze kusiya ndalamazo ndikuwononga mabiliyoni ambiri pomanga mafakitale atsopano kuti apange mitundu yatsopano ya ma microchip omwe ali ndi mbiri yogulitsa ziro.

Sikuti nthawi ndi ndalama zokha zomwe zikubweza makampani a semiconductor awa. Kufuna kwa ogula ma microchips amphamvu kwambiri kukucheperachepera. Ganizilani izi: M'zaka za m'ma 90 ndi zaka zambiri za 00s, zinali pafupi kupatsidwa kuti mumagulitsa makompyuta kapena foni yanu, ngati sichoncho chaka chilichonse, ndiye chaka chilichonse. Izi zikulolani kuti mupitirizebe ndi mapulogalamu onse atsopano ndi mapulogalamu omwe akutuluka kuti apangitse moyo wanu wapakhomo ndi ntchito kukhala wosavuta komanso wabwinoko. Masiku ano, kodi mumakweza kangati pakompyuta kapena laputopu yamsika pamsika?

Mukamaganizira za foni yanu yam'manja, muli ndi mthumba mwanu zomwe zikadawoneka ngati zapamwamba zaka 20 zapitazo. Kupatula madandaulo okhudzana ndi moyo wa batri ndi kukumbukira, mafoni ambiri omwe adagulidwa kuyambira 2016 amatha kugwiritsa ntchito pulogalamu iliyonse kapena masewera am'manja, kutsitsa kanema wanyimbo kapena gawo lachiwonetsero ndi SO yanu, kapena china chilichonse chomwe mungafune kuchita pakompyuta yanu. foni. Kodi mumafunikiradi kuwononga $1,000 kapena kuposerapo chaka chilichonse kuti muchite zinthu izi bwino 10-15 peresenti? Kodi mungazindikire ngakhale kusiyana kwake?

Kwa anthu ambiri, yankho nlakuti ayi.

Tsogolo la Chilamulo cha Moore

M'mbuyomu, ndalama zambiri zogulira ndalama mu semiconductor tech zidachokera ku ndalama zachitetezo chankhondo. Kenako idasinthidwa ndi opanga zamagetsi ogula, ndipo pofika 2020-2023, ndalama zotsogola pakukula kwa ma microchip zisinthanso, nthawi ino kuchokera kumakampani odziwa izi:

Chotsatira cha Gen. Kukhazikitsidwa kukubwera kwa zida za holographic, zenizeni komanso zowonjezereka kwa anthu onse kudzalimbikitsa kufunikira kokulirapo kwa data, makamaka pamene matekinolojewa akukula ndikutchuka kumapeto kwa 2020s.
Cloud computing. Zafotokozedwa mu gawo lotsatira la mndandanda uno.
Magalimoto odziyimira pawokha. Kufotokozedwa bwino m'nkhani yathu Tsogolo la Maulendo zino.
Intaneti zinthu. Kufotokozedwa m'nkhani yathu Internet Zinthu mutu wathu Tsogolo la intaneti zino.
Zambiri ndi ma analytics. Mabungwe omwe amafunikira kusungitsa deta pafupipafupi - akuganiza kuti asitikali, kufufuza zakuthambo, olosera zanyengo, zamankhwala, zoyendera, ndi zina zambiri - apitiliza kufunafuna makompyuta amphamvu kwambiri kuti aunike kuchuluka kwazinthu zomwe zasonkhanitsidwa.

Ndalama zothandizira R&D mum'badwo wotsatira zidzakhalapo nthawi zonse, koma funso ndilakuti ngati ndalama zomwe zimafunikira pamitundu yovuta kwambiri ya ma microprocessors zitha kugwirizana ndi kukula kwa Lamulo la Moore. Poganizira mtengo wosinthira ndikugulitsa ma microchips atsopano, komanso kuchepa kwa kuchuluka kwa ogula, kusokonekera kwa bajeti ya boma komanso kugwa kwachuma, mwayi ndi wakuti Lamulo la Moore liziyenda pang'onopang'ono kapena kuyima pang'onopang'ono koyambirira kwa 2020s, isanayambike mochedwa. 2020, koyambirira kwa 2030s.

Ponena za chifukwa chake Lamulo la Moore liyambanso kuthamanga, tiyeni tingonena kuti ma microchips opangidwa ndi turbo sikusintha kokhako komwe kumabwera pamapaipi apakompyuta. Kenako mu mndandanda wathu wa Tsogolo la Makompyuta, tiwona zomwe zikuyambitsa kukula kwa cloud computing.