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ZITHUNZI CREDIT: Quantumrun

United States vs. Mexico: Geopolitics of Climate Change

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
LinkedIn

Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 10:59

Kuneneratu kosagwirizana kumeneku kudzakhudza kwambiri dziko la United States ndi Mexico pokhudzana ndi kusintha kwa nyengo pakati pa zaka za 2040 mpaka 2050. Pamene mukuwerengabe, muwona United States yomwe ikukhala yosamala kwambiri, yowoneka mkati, komanso osagwirizana ndi dziko lapansi. Mudzawona dziko la Mexico lomwe latuluka ku North America Free Trade Area ndipo likuvutika kuti lisagwere m'malo olephera. Ndipo pamapeto pake, muwona mayiko awiri omwe zovuta zawo zimabweretsa nkhondo yapachiweniweni yapadera.

Koma tisanayambe, tiyeni timveke bwino pa zinthu zingapo. Chithunzi ichi - tsogolo lazandale la United States ndi Mexico - silinafotokozedwe bwino. Chilichonse chomwe mukufuna kuwerenga chimachokera ku ntchito zolosera zaboma zomwe zikupezeka poyera kuchokera ku United States ndi United Kingdom, magulu oganiza achinsinsi komanso ogwirizana ndi boma, komanso ntchito za atolankhani ngati Gwynne Dyer, a. wolemba wamkulu m'munda uno. Maulalo kuzinthu zambiri zogwiritsidwa ntchito alembedwa kumapeto.

Kuphatikiza apo, chithunzithunzichi chimakhazikitsidwanso pamalingaliro awa:

Ndalama zapadziko lonse lapansi zomwe boma likuchita pofuna kuchepetsa kapena kusintha kusintha kwanyengo sizikhala zapakati mpaka kulibe.
Palibe kuyesa kwa mapulaneti a geoengineering omwe akuchitidwa.
Zochita za dzuwa za dzuwa sichigwera pansi mmene lilili panopa, motero kuchepetsa kutentha kwa dziko.
Palibe zopambana zomwe zimapangidwira mu mphamvu ya fusion, ndipo palibe ndalama zazikulu zomwe zimapangidwira padziko lonse lapansi pakuchotsa mchere wamchere ndi zomangamanga zaulimi.
Pofika chaka cha 2040, kusintha kwanyengo kudzakhala kwapita patsogolo mpaka pomwe mpweya wowonjezera kutentha (GHG) mumlengalenga umaposa magawo 450 pa miliyoni.
Mumawerenga mawu athu oyambira pakusintha kwanyengo ndi zotsatira zoyipa zomwe zingakhudze madzi athu akumwa, ulimi, mizinda ya m'mphepete mwa nyanja, ndi zomera ndi zinyama ngati palibe chomwe chingachitike.

Poganizira izi, chonde werengani maulosi otsatirawa ndi maganizo omasuka.

Mexico pamwamba

Timayamba ndi Mexico, chifukwa tsogolo lake lidzalumikizana kwambiri ndi la US pazaka makumi angapo zikubwerazi. Podzafika zaka za m'ma 2040, zochitika zingapo zoyambitsidwa ndi nyengo zidzachitika kuti zisokoneze dziko ndikulifikitsa mpaka kukhala dziko lolephera.

Chakudya ndi madzi

Pamene nyengo ikuwomba, mitsinje yambiri ya ku Mexico idzakhala yopyapyala, monganso mvula yomwe imagwa pachaka. Izi zipangitsa kuti kukhale chilala choopsa komanso chokhalitsa chomwe chidzasokoneza chakudya chapakhomo m'dziko muno. Zotsatira zake, chigawochi chidzadalira kwambiri tirigu wochokera ku US ndi Canada.

Poyambirira, m'zaka za m'ma 2030, kudalira kumeneku kudzathandizidwa chifukwa cha kuphatikizidwa kwa Mexico mu mgwirizano wa United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) womwe umapereka mitengo yabwino pansi pa mgwirizano wamalonda waulimi. Koma chuma chaku Mexico chikayamba kuchepa pang'onopang'ono chifukwa chakuchulukira kwa makina aku US kumachepetsa kufunikira kwa anthu ogwira ntchito ku Mexico, kuchepa kwake komwe kukuchulukirachulukira pazaulimi kungapangitse dzikolo kulephera. Izi (pamodzi ndi zifukwa zina zomwe zafotokozedwa pansipa) zitha kuyika pachiwopsezo kupitiliza kwa Mexico ku USMCA, popeza US ndi Canada zitha kuyang'ana chifukwa chilichonse chodula ubale ndi Mexico, makamaka pomwe kusintha koipitsitsa kwanyengo kumayamba m'ma 2040s.

Tsoka ilo, ngati Mexico itachotsedwa ku ndalama zogulitsira za USMCA, mwayi wopeza mbewu zotsika mtengo udzatha, ndikulepheretsa dzikolo kugawa chakudya kwa nzika zake. Pokhala ndi ndalama zaboma zotsika kwambiri, zidzakhala zovuta kwambiri kugula zakudya zazing'ono zomwe zatsala pamsika wotseguka, makamaka popeza alimi aku US ndi Canada adzalimbikitsidwa kuti agulitse zomwe sizili zapakhomo kunja kwa China.

Nzika zosamutsidwa

Chowonjezera chodetsa nkhawa ichi ndikuti chiŵerengero cha anthu ku Mexico 131 miliyoni chikuyembekezeka kukula kufika pa 157 miliyoni pofika chaka cha 2040. Pamene vuto la chakudya likuipiraipira, othawa kwawo chifukwa cha nyengo (mabanja onse) adzasamuka m'madera ouma ndi kukakhala m'misasa yaikulu yozungulira mizinda ikuluikulu. kumpoto komwe thandizo la boma likupezeka mosavuta. Misasa iyi sidzangokhala anthu aku Mexico, idzakhalanso ndi anthu othawa kwawo omwe athawa kumpoto kupita ku Mexico kuchokera kumayiko aku Central America monga Guatemala ndi El Salvador.

Chiwerengero cha anthu otere, okhala m'mikhalidwe yotere, sangachirikize ngati boma la Mexico silingathe kupeza chakudya chokwanira kudyetsa anthu ake. Apa ndi pamene zinthu zidzawonongeka.

Dziko lolephera

Pamene mphamvu ya boma yopereka zinthu zofunika pa moyo ikutha, mphamvu zakenso zidzatha. Ulamuliro udzasintha pang'onopang'ono kupita ku ma cartel a zigawo ndi mabwanamkubwa a boma. Magulu onse ankhondo ndi abwanamkubwa, omwe aliyense aziyang'anira magulu ankhondo adziko lonse, adzatsekeredwa m'nkhondo zomwe zatsala pang'ono kutha, kumenyerana nkhokwe za chakudya ndi njira zina.

Kwa anthu ambiri aku Mexico omwe akufuna moyo wabwinoko, pangotsala njira imodzi yokha: kuthawa kudutsa malire, kuthawira ku United States.

United States imabisala mkati mwa chipolopolo chake

Zowawa zanyengo zomwe Mexico idzakumane nazo m'zaka za m'ma 2040 sizidzamvekanso ku United States, komwe maiko akumpoto azikhala bwinoko pang'ono kuposa mayiko akumwera. Koma monga Mexico, US idzakumana ndi vuto lazakudya.

Chakudya ndi madzi

Pamene nyengo ikuwomba, chipale chofewa pamwamba pa Sierra Nevada ndi Rocky Mountains chidzatsika ndipo pamapeto pake chidzasungunuka kotheratu. Chipale chofewa cha dzinja chidzagwa ngati mvula ya m’nyengo yachisanu, ikuthamanga nthaŵi yomweyo ndikusiya mitsinje yopanda madzi m’chilimwe. Izi zimasungunuka chifukwa mitsinje yomwe mapiri amadyera ndi mitsinje yomwe imalowera ku Central Valley ku California. Ngati mitsinje iyi ilephera, ulimi kudutsa chigwacho, chomwe panopa chimalima theka la masamba a US, chidzasiya kukhala chotheka, potero kudula gawo limodzi mwa magawo anayi a chakudya cha dziko. Pakadali pano, kuchepa kwa mvula m'zigwa zokulirapo kumadzulo kwa Mississippi kudzakhala ndi zotsatira zoyipa paulimi m'derali, zomwe zimapangitsa kuti madzi a Ogallala awonongeke.

Mwamwayi, dengu la mkate la kumpoto la US (Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, ndi Wisconsin) silidzakhudzidwa kwambiri chifukwa cha nkhokwe zamadzi za Great Lakes. Dera limenelo, kuphatikizapo nthaka yolimidwa imene ili m’mphepete mwa nyanja ya kum’maŵa, idzakhala yokwanira kudyetsa dzikolo bwinobwino.

Zochitika zanyengo

Kupatula chitetezo chazakudya, ma 2040s adzawona dziko la US likukumana ndi zochitika zachiwawa zambiri chifukwa cha kukwera kwamadzi am'nyanja. Madera otsika kumphepete mwa nyanja ya kum'mawa adzakhudzidwa kwambiri, ndi zochitika zamtundu wa Hurricane Katrina zomwe zimawononga mobwerezabwereza Florida ndi dera lonse la Chesapeake Bay.

Zowonongeka zomwe zachitika chifukwa cha zochitikazi zidzawononga ndalama zambiri kuposa masoka achilengedwe apita ku US. M'mbuyomu, purezidenti wamtsogolo waku US ndi boma la federal alonjeza kumanganso madera omwe awonongedwa. Koma m'kupita kwa nthawi, pamene madera omwewo akupitilirabe kuvutitsidwa ndi zochitika zanyengo zomwe zikuchulukirachulukira, thandizo lazachuma lidzasintha kuchoka ku ntchito yomanganso kupita ku ntchito zosamukira. A US sangathe kukwanitsa ntchito zomanganso nthawi zonse.

Momwemonso, opereka inshuwaransi adzasiya kupereka chithandizo kumadera omwe akukhudzidwa kwambiri ndi nyengo. Kusowa kwa inshuwaransi kumeneku kudzachititsa kuti anthu a m'mphepete mwa nyanja akum'mawa achoke ku America kuti asamukire kumadzulo ndi kumpoto, nthawi zambiri amatayika chifukwa cholephera kugulitsa katundu wawo wa m'mphepete mwa nyanja. Njirayi idzakhala yapang'onopang'ono poyamba, koma kuchotsedwa kwadzidzidzi kwa mayiko akumwera ndi kum'mawa sikunachoke. Izi zitha kuwonanso kuti anthu ambiri aku America akusintha kukhala othawa kwawo opanda pokhala m'dziko lawo.

Pokhala ndi anthu ambiri okankhidwira m’mphepete, nthawi imeneyi idzakhalanso malo oyambilirapo kaamba ka kusintha kwa ndale, kaya kuchokera kumanja achipembedzo, oopa mkwiyo wa Mulungu wa nyengo, kapena kumanzere, amene amachirikiza mfundo zonyanyira za sosholisti kuti zichirikize maiko. chigawo chomwe chikukula mofulumira cha anthu aku America omwe alibe ntchito, opanda pokhala, ndi anjala.

United States pa dziko lapansi

Kuyang'ana kunja, kukwera mtengo kwa zochitika zanyengo sikudzasokoneza bajeti ya dziko la US komanso kuthekera kwa dzikoli kuchita zankhondo kunja kwa nyanja. Anthu aku America adzafunsa chifukwa chake ndalama zawo zamisonkho zikugwiritsidwa ntchito pankhondo zakunja ndi zovuta zachifundo pomwe zitha kugwiritsidwa ntchito kunyumba. Komanso, ndi kusintha kosalephereka kwa makampani ang'onoang'ono ku magalimoto (magalimoto, magalimoto, ndege, ndi zina zotero) zomwe zimayendera magetsi, chifukwa cha US chosokoneza ku Middle East (mafuta) chidzasiya pang'onopang'ono kukhala nkhani ya chitetezo cha dziko.

Zokakamiza zamkatizi zimatha kupangitsa US kukhala wowopsa komanso wowoneka wamkati. Idzachoka ku Middle East, ndikusiya maziko ang'onoang'ono ochepa, ndikusungabe thandizo la Israeli. Zigawo zazing'ono zankhondo zipitilirabe, koma ziphatikizidwe ndi kuwukira kwa drone motsutsana ndi mabungwe a jihadi, omwe akhale magulu ankhondo aku Iraq, Syria, ndi Lebanon.

Vuto lalikulu lomwe lingapangitse kuti asitikali aku US agwire ntchito ndi China, chifukwa ikuwonjezera gawo lake padziko lonse lapansi kudyetsa anthu ake ndikupewa kusintha kwina. Izi zikufufuzidwanso pang'ono Chinese ndi Russian zoneneratu.

Malire

Palibe vuto lina lomwe lingakhale losokoneza anthu aku America monga nkhani ya malire ake ndi Mexico.

Pofika chaka cha 2040, pafupifupi 20 peresenti ya anthu aku US adzakhala ochokera ku Spain. Ndiwo anthu 80,000,000. Ambiri mwa anthuwa amakhala kumadera akummwera oyandikana ndi malire, omwe kale anali a Mexico — Texas, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, ndi ena.

Pamene vuto la nyengo likugwedeza Mexico ndi mphepo yamkuntho ndi chilala chosatha, anthu ambiri a ku Mexico, komanso nzika za mayiko ena a ku South America, adzayang'ana kuthawa kudutsa malire kupita ku United States. Ndipo kodi mungawaimbe mlandu?

Ngati mukulera ana m’dziko la Mexico limene likuvutika ndi njala, chiwawa cha m’misewu, ndi kugwa kwa mautumiki aboma, simungakhale osasamala n’komwe kuti musayese kuloŵa m’dziko lolemera kwambiri—dziko limene mungakhale ndi intaneti. achibale awo.

Mutha kuganiza vuto lomwe ndikuyang'ana: Kale mu 2015, anthu aku America akudandaula za malire apakati pakati pa Mexico ndi kum'mwera kwa United States, makamaka chifukwa cha kuchuluka kwa anthu osamukira kumayiko ena komanso mankhwala osokoneza bongo. Pakadali pano, mayiko akumwera amasunga malire mwakachetechete opanda apolisi kuti atengerepo mwayi pantchito yotsika mtengo yaku Mexico yomwe imathandizira mabizinesi ang'onoang'ono aku US kuti apindule. Koma othawa kwawo akayamba kuwoloka malire pamlingo wa miliyoni pamwezi, mantha adzaphulika pakati pa anthu aku America.

Zachidziwikire, anthu aku America nthawi zonse azimvera chisoni anthu aku Mexico chifukwa cha zomwe amawona m'nkhani, koma lingaliro la mamiliyoni awoloka malire, chakudya chambiri chaboma ndi ntchito zanyumba, silingalekerere. Ndi kukakamizidwa ndi mayiko akumwera, boma la federal lidzagwiritsa ntchito asilikali kuti atseke malire ndi mphamvu, mpaka khoma lokwera mtengo komanso lankhondo litamangidwa kudutsa malire a US / Mexico. Khomali lidzafikira kunyanja kudzera pachitetezo chachikulu cha Navy cholimbana ndi othawa kwawo kwanyengo ochokera ku Cuba ndi mayiko ena aku Caribbean, komanso kupita mumlengalenga kudzera pagulu lambiri loyang'anira ndikuwukira ma drones omwe amalondera kutalika kwa khoma.

Chomvetsa chisoni n'chakuti khomalo silingaletse othawa kwawowa mpaka zitadziwika kuti kuyesa kuwoloka kumatanthauza imfa. Kutseka malire olimbana ndi mamiliyoni othawa kwawo chifukwa cha nyengo kumatanthauza kuti padzachitika zinthu zingapo zoyipa pomwe asitikali ndi zida zodzitchinjiriza zidzapha anthu ambiri aku Mexico omwe upandu wokhawo udzakhala kusimidwa komanso chikhumbo cholowa m'modzi mwa mayiko omaliza omwe ali ndi zokwanira. nthaka yolima kuti idyetse anthu ake.

Boma liyesa kupondereza zithunzi ndi makanema pazochitikazi, koma zidzatuluka, monga momwe zimakhalira. Ndipamene mudzafunsidwa kuti: Kodi anthu aku 80,000,000 aku America aku America (ambiri a iwo adzakhala nzika zalamulo za m'badwo wachiwiri kapena wachitatu pofika zaka za 2040) adzamva bwanji zakupha anzawo aku Spain, mwina achibale awo, akamadutsa malire? Mwayi mwina sizingayende bwino nawo.

Anthu ambiri aku Puerto Rico, ngakhale m'badwo wachiwiri kapena wachitatu nzika sizingavomereze zenizeni pomwe boma lawo limawombera abale awo kumalire. Ndipo pa 20 peresenti ya anthu, anthu a ku Puerto Rico (makamaka opangidwa ndi anthu a ku Mexican-America) adzakhala ndi mphamvu zambiri zandale ndi zachuma kumadera akummwera kumene azidzalamulira. Anthu ammudzi adzavotera andale ambiri aku Spain kuti akhale osankhidwa. Olamulira a ku Spain adzatsogolera mayiko ambiri akumwera. Pamapeto pake, gululi lidzakhala gulu lamphamvu lolandirira anthu, kukopa mamembala aboma pamlingo wa federal. Cholinga chawo: Kutseka malire pazifukwa zothandiza anthu.

Kukwera kwapang'onopang'ono kumeneku kudzadzetsa chivomezi, ife motsutsana ndi iwo kugawanika pakati pa anthu aku America - chowonadi chochititsa chidwi, chomwe chidzapangitsa kuti mbali zonse ziwiri ziwopsezeke mwankhanza. Siidzakhala nkhondo yapachiweniweni m’lingaliro lachibadwa la mawu, koma nkhani yosatha imene siingathe kuthetsedwa. Pamapeto pake, Mexico ipezanso malo omwe idataya pankhondo ya Mexican-American ya 1846-48, onse osawombera ngakhale kamodzi.

Zifukwa za chiyembekezo

Choyamba, kumbukirani kuti zomwe mwawerengazi ndi kulosera chabe, osati zenizeni. Ndilonso zoneneratu zomwe zinalembedwa mu 2015. Zambiri zingathe ndipo zidzachitika pakati pa 2040s kuti athetse zotsatira za kusintha kwa nyengo (zambiri zomwe zidzafotokozedwe mu mndandanda womaliza). Ndipo chofunika kwambiri, zonenedweratu zomwe tafotokozazi ndizotheka kupewa pogwiritsa ntchito ukadaulo wamakono komanso m'badwo wamakono.

Kuti mudziwe zambiri za momwe kusintha kwanyengo kungakhudzire madera ena padziko lapansi kapena kudziwa zomwe mungachite kuti muchepetse kusintha kwanyengo kenako ndikusintha, werengani nkhani zathu zokhudzana ndi kusintha kwanyengo pogwiritsa ntchito maulalo ali pansipa: