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Momwe tidzapangire Artificial Superintelligence: Tsogolo la Luntha Lopanga P3

David Tal, Wofalitsa, Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
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Lachiwiri, 09/15/2020 - 13:17

M’kati mwa Nkhondo Yadziko II, magulu ankhondo a Nazi anali kuloŵerera m’madera ambiri a ku Ulaya. Anali ndi zida zapamwamba, mafakitale ogwira ntchito panthawi yankhondo, asilikali oyenda pansi, koma koposa zonse, anali ndi makina otchedwa Enigma. Chipangizochi chinalola magulu ankhondo a chipani cha Nazi kuti agwirizane mosatekeseka paulendo wautali potumizirana mauthenga a Morse-code pa mizere yoyankhulirana yokhazikika; anali makina a cipher osatheka kuphwanya malamulo a anthu.

Mwamwayi, Allies anapeza yankho. Sanafunikirenso malingaliro aumunthu kuti athetse Chisokonezo. M'malo mwake, kudzera mu kupangidwa kwa malemu Alan Turing, Allies adapanga chida chatsopano chosinthira chotchedwa Bombe la Britain, chipangizo chotchedwa electromechanical chomwe pomalizira pake chinazindikira chinsinsi cha chipani cha Nazi, ndipo pamapeto pake chinawathandiza kupambana pankhondoyo.

Bombe ili linayala maziko a makompyuta amakono.

Kugwira ntchito limodzi ndi Turing panthawi yachitukuko cha Bombe anali IJ Good, katswiri wa masamu wa ku Britain komanso cryptologist. Adawona koyambirira kwamasewera omaliza chida chatsopanochi chikhoza kubweretsa tsiku lina. Mu a Pepala la 1965, analemba kuti:

"Lolani makina osaphunzira afotokozedwe ngati makina omwe amatha kuposa nzeru zonse za munthu aliyense ngakhale wanzeru. Popeza mapangidwe a makina ndi chimodzi mwazinthu zanzeru izi, makina osagwiritsa ntchito nzeru amatha kupanga makina abwinoko; pamenepo mosakayikira pakanakhala “kuphulika kwa nzeru,” ndipo nzeru za munthu zikanasiyidwa m’mbuyo kwambiri. kuti azililamulira.”

Kupanga woyamba yokumba superintelligence

Mpaka pano mu mndandanda wathu wa Future of Artificial Intelligence, tafotokoza magulu atatu akulu anzeru zopangira (AI), kuyambira yokumba yopapatiza nzeru (ANI) ku Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), koma m'mutu uno, tiyang'ana kwambiri gulu lomaliza-lomwe limabweretsa chisangalalo kapena mantha pakati pa ofufuza a AI-artificial superintelligence (ASI).

Kuti muzungulire mutu wanu kuti ASI ndi chiyani, muyenera kuganiziranso mutu womaliza pomwe tidafotokozera momwe ofufuza a AI amakhulupirira kuti apanga AGI yoyamba. Kwenikweni, zidzatengera kuphatikiza kwa data yayikulu kudyetsa ma aligorivimu abwinoko (omwe amakhazikika pakudzitukumula komanso luso lophunzirira ngati la munthu) zomwe zimakhala mu zida zamphamvu kwambiri zamakompyuta.

M’mutu umenewo, tinafotokozanso mmene maganizo a AGI (akangopeza luso lodzitukumula ndi kuphunzira zimene anthufe timaziona mopepuka) potsirizira pake adzapambana maganizo a munthu mwa kufulumira kwa kuganiza, kukumbukira kukumbukira, kugwira ntchito mosatopa, ndiponso pompopompo upgradability.

Koma apa ndikofunika kuzindikira kuti AGI imangodzipangira okha malire a hardware ndi deta yomwe ili nayo; malire awa akhoza kukhala aakulu kapena ang'onoang'ono malingana ndi thupi la robot lomwe timapereka kapena kukula kwa makompyuta omwe timawalola kuti apite.

Pakalipano, kusiyana pakati pa AGI ndi ASI ndikuti chomaliza, mwachidziwitso, sichidzakhalapo mwakuthupi. Idzagwira ntchito yonse mkati mwa supercomputer kapena network ya supercomputers. Kutengera zolinga za omwe adazipanga, imathanso kupeza zonse zomwe zasungidwa pa intaneti, komanso chida chilichonse kapena munthu yemwe amatumiza data pa intaneti komanso pa intaneti. Izi zikutanthauza kuti sipadzakhala malire othandiza pa kuchuluka kwa ASI iyi yomwe ingaphunzire komanso momwe ingadzipangire yokha.

Ndipo ndiko kupukuta.

Kumvetsetsa kuphulika kwanzeru

Njira iyi yodzitukumula yomwe ma AI adzapeza pambuyo pake atakhala ma AGI (njira yomwe gulu la AI imayitcha kuti kudzitukumula kobwerezabwereza) ikhoza kusiya malingaliro abwino omwe amawoneka motere:

AGI yatsopano imapangidwa, kupatsidwa mwayi wopita ku thupi la robot kapena deta yaikulu, ndiyeno kupatsidwa ntchito yosavuta yodziphunzitsa yokha, kukonza nzeru zake. Poyamba, AGI iyi idzakhala ndi IQ ya mwana wakhanda yemwe akuvutika kuti amvetse mfundo zatsopano. Pakapita nthawi, imaphunzira mokwanira kuti ifike ku IQ ya munthu wamkulu wamba, koma siyimayima apa. Pogwiritsa ntchito IQ yachikulire yomwe yangopezedwa kumene, zimakhala zosavuta komanso zachangu kupitiliza kuwongoleraku mpaka IQ yake ikugwirizana ndi ya anthu ozindikira kwambiri. Koma kachiwiri, sizikuthera pamenepo.

Njirayi imaphatikizana pamlingo uliwonse watsopano wanzeru, kutsatira lamulo lofulumizitsa kubweza mpaka kufika pamlingo wosawerengeka wa superintelligence - mwa kuyankhula kwina, ngati isiyanitsidwa ndikupatsidwa zinthu zopanda malire, AGI imadzipangitsa kukhala ASI, luntha lomwe sichinakhalepo m’chilengedwe.

Izi ndi zomwe IJ Good adazindikira koyamba pamene adalongosola 'kuphulika kwanzeru' kapena zomwe akatswiri amakono a AI, monga Nick Bostrom, amatcha chochitika cha 'kunyamuka' kwa AI.

Kumvetsetsa luso lopangapanga

Pakadali pano, ena a inu mwina mukuganiza kuti kusiyana kwakukulu pakati pa luntha laumunthu ndi luntha la ASI ndi momwe mbali zonse zingaganizire mwachangu. Ndipo ngakhale zili zowona kuti mtsogolo mwanzeru ASI iyi iganiza mwachangu kuposa anthu, lusoli ndilofala kale pamakompyuta amasiku ano - foni yathu yamakono imaganiza (kuwerengera) mwachangu kuposa malingaliro amunthu, Kompyuta yamakina akuganiza mamiliyoni nthawi mwachangu kuposa foni yamakono, ndipo makompyuta amtsogolo adzaganiza mwachangu.

Ayi, liwiro sizinthu zanzeru zomwe tikufotokoza pano. Ndi khalidwe.

Mutha kufulumizitsa ubongo wa Samoyed kapena Corgi zonse zomwe mukufuna, koma izi sizitanthauza kumvetsetsa kwatsopano momwe mungamasulire chilankhulo kapena malingaliro osamveka. Ngakhale ndi owonjezera khumi kapena ziwiri, doggos izi mwadzidzidzi kumvetsa mmene kupanga kapena kugwiritsa ntchito zida, samathanso kumvetsa bwino kusiyana pakati kapitalist ndi socialist dongosolo zachuma.

Pankhani ya nzeru, anthu amagwiritsa ntchito ndege yosiyana ndi nyama. Momwemonso, ngati ASI ifika pamalingaliro ake onse, malingaliro awo adzagwira ntchito pamlingo wopitilira momwe munthu wamakono amafikira. Pazinthu zina, tiyeni tiwone momwe ma ASI awa amagwiritsidwira ntchito.

Kodi luntha lochita kupanga lingagwire ntchito bwanji limodzi ndi anthu?

Pongoganiza kuti boma kapena bungwe lina likuchita bwino kupanga ASI, angagwiritse ntchito bwanji? Malinga ndi Bostrom, pali mitundu itatu yosiyana koma yofananira yomwe ASI ingatenge:

Oracle. Pano, titha kuyanjana ndi ASI mofanana ndi momwe timachitira kale ndi injini yakusaka ya Google; tifunsa funso, koma ngakhale funso lovuta bwanji, ASI iyankha bwino lomwe komanso m'njira yomwe ikugwirizana ndi inu komanso funso lanu.
Genie. Pankhaniyi, tidzagawira ASI ntchito inayake, ndipo idzachita monga momwe adalamulira. Fufuzani mankhwala a khansa. Zatheka. Pezani mapulaneti onse obisika mkati mwa chithunzi chotsalira cha zaka 10 kuchokera ku Hubble Space Telescope ya NASA. Zatheka. Injiniya cholumikizira cholumikizira kuti chithetse kufunikira kwa mphamvu kwa anthu. Abracadabra.
Wolamulira. Apa, ASI yapatsidwa ntchito yotseguka ndikupatsidwa ufulu woichita. Iba zinsinsi za R&D kuchokera kwa omwe akupikisana nawo. "Zosavuta." Dziwani za azondi onse akunja omwe akubisala m'malire athu. "Pa izo." Onetsetsani kuti chuma cha United States chikuyenda bwino. "Palibe vuto."

Tsopano, ndikudziwa zomwe mukuganiza, zonsezi zikumveka ngati zosatheka. Ichi ndichifukwa chake ndikofunikira kukumbukira kuti vuto lililonse / zovuta kunja uko, ngakhale zomwe zapunthwitsa malingaliro owala kwambiri padziko lapansi mpaka pano, onse amatha kutha. Koma zovuta za vuto zimayesedwa ndi luntha lothana nalo.

Mwa kuyankhula kwina, pamene malingaliro akugwiritsidwa ntchito pazovuta, zimakhala zosavuta kupeza njira yothetsera vutolo. Vuto lililonse. Zili ngati munthu wachikulire akuyang’ana kamwanako kakuvutikira kumvetsa chifukwa chake sangaloŵe mpata wozungulira mbali zonse zinayi—kwa munthu wamkulu, kusonyeza khandalo kuti chipikacho chiyenera kulowa m’bowolo lingakhale masewera a ana.

Momwemonso, ngati ASI iyi yamtsogolo ikadzafika ku mphamvu zake zonse, malingaliro awa adzakhala aluntha lamphamvu kwambiri m'chilengedwe chonse chodziwika - champhamvu zokwanira kuthetsa vuto lililonse, ngakhale zovuta bwanji.

Ichi ndichifukwa chake ofufuza ambiri a AI akutcha ASI chinthu chomaliza chomwe munthu ayenera kupanga. Ngati tikhulupirira kuti timagwira ntchito limodzi ndi anthu, zitha kutithandiza kuthetsa mavuto onse omwe ali padziko lapansi. Tikhoza ngakhale kulipempha kuti lithetse matenda onse ndi kuthetsa ukalamba monga momwe tikudziwira. Anthu angathe kwa nthawi yoyamba kubera imfa kwamuyaya ndi kulowa m'nyengo yatsopano ya chitukuko.

Koma zosiyana ndizothekanso.

Nzeru ndi mphamvu. Ngati sichisamalidwa bwino kapena kulangizidwa ndi ochita zoipa, ASI iyi ikhoza kukhala chida chachikulu kwambiri chopondereza, kapena ikhoza kuwononga anthu onse - ganizirani Skynet kuchokera ku Terminator kapena Architect kuchokera ku mafilimu a Matrix.

Kunena zoona, palibe kunyanyira komwe kungatheke. Tsogolo nthawi zonse limakhala loyipa kwambiri kuposa momwe anthu amaneneratu za utopian ndi distopians. Ichi ndichifukwa chake tsopano popeza tamvetsetsa lingaliro la ASI, mndandanda wonsewu ufufuza momwe ASI ingakhudzire anthu, momwe anthu angadzitetezere ku ASI yankhanza, komanso momwe tsogolo lingawonekere ngati anthu ndi AI akukhala moyandikana. -mbali. Werenganibe.