I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Ikusasa lobugebengu obuhleliwe: Ikusasa lobugebengu P5

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 08:48

I-Godfather, Goodfellas, The Sopranos, Scarface, Casino, The Departed, Eastern Promises, ukuthakasela umphakathi ngobugebengu obuhleliwe kubonakala kungokwemvelo uma kubhekwa ubuhlobo bethu benzondo yothando nalo mhlaba ongaphansi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sisekela obala ubugebengu obuhleliwe njalo lapho sithenga izidakamizwa ezingekho emthethweni noma izindawo zokucima ukoma ezinomthunzi, amakilabhu, namakhasino; Okwamanje, siyakuphikisa uma amadola ethu entela eshushisa izigilamkhuba.

Ubugebengu obuhleliwe buzizwa bungafaneleki, futhi bungokwemvelo ngendlela engakhululekile emphakathini wethu. Sekungamakhulu eminyaka ikhona, mhlawumbe ngisho nezinkulungwane zeminyaka, kuye ngokuthi uyichaza kanjani. Njengegciwane, ukuhlukunyezwa kobugebengu obuhleliwe kanye nokuntshontsha emphakathini eliwusebenzelayo, kodwa njenge-valve yokukhulula, liphinde livumele izimakethe ezimnyama ezihlinzeka ngemikhiqizo namasevisi ohulumeni abangawavumeli noma abangakwazi ukuhlinzekela izakhamuzi zawo. Kwezinye izifunda nasemazweni, izinhlangano zobugebengu obuhleliwe kanye namaphekula zithatha indima kahulumeni lapho uhulumeni wendabuko uwile ngokuphelele.

Uma kubhekwa leli qiniso elimbaxambili, akufanele kusimangaze ukuthi ezinye zezinhlangano zobugebengu eziphezulu emhlabeni okwamanje zenza imali eningi kunezifunda ezikhethiwe. Bheka nje Uhlu lwe-Fortune emaqenjini amahlanu aphezulu obugebengu obuhleliwe:

Solntsevskaya Bratva (Russian mafia) - Imali engenayo: $ 8.5 billion
Yamaguchi Gumi (owaziwa nangokuthi The Yakuza from Japan) — Imali engenayo: $6.6 billion
I-Camorra (i-mafia yase-Italian-American) - Imali engenayo: $ 4.9 billion
I-Ndrangheta (isixuku sase-Italy) - Imali engenayo: $ 4.5 billion
I-Sinaloa Cartel (isixuku sase-Mexico) - Imali engenayo: $ 3 billion

Ukulahla imihlathi nakakhulu, i-US Izilinganiso ze-FBI ukuthi ubugebengu obuhleliwe emhlabeni wonke bungenisa imali emangazayo engu-$1 trillion minyaka yonke.

Ngayo yonke le mali, ubugebengu obuhleliwe abuyi ndawo maduze. Eqinisweni, ubugebengu obuhleliwe buzojabulela ikusasa eliqhakazile kuze kube sekupheleni kwawo-2030. Ake sibheke izitayela ezizothuthukisa ukukhula kwayo, ukuthi izophoqeleka kanjani ukuthi iguquke, bese sibheka izinhlangano zefederal zesikhathi esizayo ezizozisebenzisa ukuzehlukanisa.

Amathrendi abhebhezela ukwanda kobugebengu obuhleliwe

Uma ubheka izahluko ezandulele zalolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lobugebengu, ungaxolelwa ukucabanga ukuthi ubugebengu, sebubheke ukushabalala. Nakuba lokhu kuyiqiniso ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, iqiniso lesikhashana liwukuthi ubugebengu, ikakhulukazi obuhlukahlukene obuhleliwe, buzohlomula futhi buchume ezinhlobonhlobo zezitayela ezimbi phakathi kuka-2020 kuya ku-2040.

Ukwehla komnotho okuzayo. Njengomthetho ojwayelekile, ukwehla komnotho kusho ibhizinisi elihle lobugebengu obuhleliwe. Ngezikhathi zokungaqiniseki, abantu bafuna isiphephelo ekwandeni kokusetshenziswa kwezidakamizwa, baphinde babambe iqhaza ezinhlelweni zokubheja nokugembula, okuyimisebenzi amaqembu ezigebengu asebenza ngokukhethekile kuyo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ngezikhathi ezinzima abaningi baphendukela koshaka bemalimboleko ukuze bakhokhele imali mboleko yesimo esiphuthumayo—futhi uma uke wabuka noma iyiphi ifilimu ye-mafia, uyazi ukuthi isinqumo asivamile ukusebenza kahle.

Ngenhlanhla ezinhlanganweni zobugebengu, futhi ngeshwa ngomnotho womhlaba, ukwehla komnotho kuzovama kakhulu emashumini eminyaka ezayo ikakhulukazi ngenxa ezishintshayo. Njengoba kuchaziwe esahlukweni sesihlanu sethu Ikusasa Lomsebenzi chungechunge, 47 amaphesenti yemisebenzi yanamuhla izoshabalala ngo-2040, konke kuyilapho inani labantu emhlabeni lizokhula libe yizigidi eziyizinkulungwane eziyisishiyagalolunye ngawo lowo nyaka. Ngenkathi amazwe asethuthukile engase anqobe i-automation ngokusebenzisa izikimu zezenhlalakahle ezifana ne Imali Eyisisekelo Yomhlaba Wonke, amazwe amaningi asathuthuka (nalawo alindele ukwanda kwenani labantu) ngeke abe nezinsiza zokuhlinzeka ngezinkonzo zikahulumeni ezinjalo.

Kuze kube manje, ngaphandle kokuhlelwa kabusha okukhulu kohlelo lwezomnotho lomhlaba wonke, ingxenye yabantu abaneminyaka yobudala emhlabeni ingase ingasebenzi futhi incike enhlalakahleni kahulumeni. Lesi simo sizokhubaza umnotho omningi osuselwe kokuthekelisa, okuholela ekuwohlokeni komnotho okusabalele emhlabeni wonke.

Ukushushumbiswa nokushushumbiswa. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi ukushushumbisa izidakamizwa nezimpahla ezilahliwe, ababaleki ngokunyonyoba beqa imingcele, noma ukushushumbiswa kwabesifazane nezingane, lapho umnotho ungena esimweni sokuwohloka komnotho, lapho amazwe ewa (isb., iSyria neLibya), nalapho izifunda zibhekana nezinhlekelele zemvelo ezibhubhisayo, yilapho-ke iminyango yezigebengu. izinhlangano ziyachuma.

Ngeshwa, amashumi amabili eminyaka ezayo azobona umhlaba lapho lezi zimo ezintathu ziba yinto evamile. Ngoba njengoba ukuwohloka komnotho kwanda, kanjalo nobungozi bokuwa kwezizwe. Futhi njengoba imiphumela yokushintsha kwesimo sezulu iba yimbi, sizobona nenani lezehlakalo ezilimazayo ezihlobene nesimo sezulu zanda, okuholela ezigidini zababaleki bokuguquguquka kwesimo sezulu.

Impi yaseSyria iyisibonelo: Umnotho ompofu, isomiso sezwe esingapheli, kanye nokuqubuka kwezingxabano zamahlelo kwaqala impi okwathi, kusukela ngoSepthemba 2016, okuholele ekutheni izinduna zempi nezinhlangano zobugebengu zithathe amandla ezweni lonke, njengoba kanye nezigidi zababaleki ezikhungathekisa iYurophu neMpumalanga Ephakathi—abaningi babo nabo abaye bawa ezandleni zabashushumbisi.

Izikhathi ezizayo ezihlulekile. Ukuqhubekisela phambili leli phuzu elingenhla, lapho amazwe enziwa buthaka ngenxa yokucindezeleka kwezomnotho, izinhlekelele zemvelo, noma impi, kuvula ithuba lokuba amaqembu obugebengu obuhleliwe asebenzise imali yawo egciniwe ukuze azuze ithonya phakathi kwabakhethekile emkhakheni wezombangazwe, wezezimali kanye nezempi. Khumbula, lapho uhulumeni engakwazi ukukhokhela izisebenzi zikahulumeni, uthe abasebenzi bakahulumeni bazovuleleka ekwamukeleni usizo oluvela ezinhlanganweni zangaphandle ukuze zibasize babeke ukudla ezitsheni zemindeni yabo.

Lena iphethini edlale njalo kuyo yonke i-Afrika, izingxenye zeMpumalanga Ephakathi (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon), futhi, kusukela ngo-2016, kulo lonke elaseNingizimu Melika (Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela). Njengoba amazwe ezizwe eshintshashintsha kakhulu eminyakeni engamashumi amabili ezayo, ingcebo yezinhlangano zobugebengu obuhleliwe ezisebenza ngaphakathi kuzo izokhula ngesinyathelo.

I-Cybercrime gold rush. Kuxoxwe ku isahluko sesibili yalolu chungechunge, iminyaka yowezi-2020 izoba ubugebengu be-inthanethi obuphuthuma igolide. Ngaphandle kokubukeza kabusha sonke leso sahluko, ngasekupheleni kweminyaka yama-2020, cishe abantu abayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu emazweni asathuthuka bazothola ukufinyelela kuwebhu okokuqala ngqa. Laba basebenzisi be-inthanethi abasafufusa bamele usuku lokukhokha lwesikhathi esizayo lwabakhohlisi abaku-inthanethi, ikakhulukazi njengoba amazwe asathuthuka laba bagebengu abazowaqondisa ngeke babe nengqalasizinda yokuvikela i-inthanethi edingekayo ukuze bavikele izakhamuzi zabo. Kuzokwenziwa umonakalo omkhulu ngaphambi kochwepheshe bezobuchwepheshe, njenge-Google, izindlela zonjiniyela zokuhlinzeka ngezinsizakalo zamahhala zokuvikeleka ku-inthanethi emazweni asathuthuka.

Izidakamizwa zokwenziwa zobunjiniyela. Kuxoxwe ku isahluko esedlule yalolu chungechunge, intuthuko ekuthuthukisweni kwakamuva okufana ne-CRISPR (echazwe ku isahluko sesithathu bakithi Ikusasa Lempilo series) luzokwenza ososayensi abaxhaswe ngobugebengu bakwazi ukukhiqiza uhla lwezitshalo namakhemikhali akhiqizwe ngofuzo anezakhiwo ezithinta ingqondo. Le mithi ingasungulwa ukuze ibe nezitayela eziqondile kakhulu zokuphakama futhi eyokwenziwa ingakhiqizwa ngobuningi ezindaweni zokugcina izimpahla ezikude-iwusizo njengoba ohulumeni emazweni asathuthuka benza ngcono ekutholeni nasekuqedeni amasimu ezitshalo ze-narcotic.

Ubugebengu obuhleliwe buzovela kanjani ngokumelene namaphoyisa anikwe amandla ezobuchwepheshe

Ezahlukweni ezedlule, sihlole ubuchwepheshe obuzogcina buholele ekupheleni kobugebengu, ubugebengu be-inthanethi, kanye nobugebengu obunodlame. Lokhu kuthuthuka kuzoba nomthelela ebugebengu obuhleliwe, okuphoqa abaholi babo ukuthi balungise indlela abasebenza ngayo kanye nezinhlobo zobugebengu abakhetha ukuziphishekela. Amathrendi alandelayo achaza ukuthi lezi zinhlangano zobugebengu zizothuthuka kanjani ukuze zihlale isinyathelo esisodwa ngaphambi komthetho.

Ukufa kwesigebengu sodwa. Ngenxa yenqubekelaphambili ebalulekile kwezobuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI), idatha enkulu, ubuchwepheshe be-CCTV, I-inthanethi Yezinto, ukukhiqiza okuzenzakalelayo, namathrendi amasiko, izinsuku zesigebengu esincane zibaliwe. Kungaba ubugebengu bendabuko noma ubugebengu be-inthanethi, bonke bazoba yingozi kakhulu futhi izinzuzo zincane kakhulu. Ngalesi sizathu, abantu abasele abanezisusa, ukuthambekela, namakhono obugebengu kungenzeka baphendukele ekuqashweni ezinhlanganweni zobugebengu ezinengqalasizinda edingekayo ukuze kuncishiswe izindleko nezingozi ezihlobene neningi lezenzo zobugebengu.

Izinhlangano zobugebengu obuhleliwe ziba ezasendaweni futhi zibambisane. Ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020, intuthuko ku-AI kanye nedatha enkulu eshiwo ngenhla izokwenza amaphoyisa nezinhlangano zezobunhloli emhlabeni wonke zibone futhi zilandele ngomkhondo abantu nempahla ehlotshaniswa nezinhlangano zobugebengu ngezinga, emhlabeni jikelele. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba izivumelwano zamazwe amabili nezizwe eziningi phakathi kwamazwe zenza kube lula ukuthi izikhungo zomthetho zilandele izigebengu zinqamule imingcele, kuzoba nzima kakhulu ezinhlanganweni zobugebengu ukulondoloza umkhondo womhlaba eziwujabulele engxenyeni enkulu yekhulu lama-20.

Ngenxa yalokho, izinhlangano eziningi zobugebengu zizophendukela ngaphakathi, zisebenze ngaphakathi kwemingcele kazwelonke yezwe lakubo ngokusebenzelana okuncane nabasebenzisana nabo bamazwe ngamazwe. Ukwengeza, lokhu kucindezela kwamaphoyisa okwandayo kungase kukhuthaze izinga elikhulu lokuhweba nokusebenzisana phakathi kwezinhlangano zobugebengu eziqhudelanayo ukuze zihoxise ukuphanga okuya ngokuba nzima okudingekayo ukuze kunqobe ubuchwepheshe bezokuphepha besikhathi esizayo.

Imali yobugebengu yaphinde yatshalwa emabhizinisini asemthethweni. Njengoba amaphoyisa kanye nezikhungo zezobunhloli zisebenza ngempumelelo, izinhlangano zobugebengu zizobheka izindlela ezintsha zokutshala imali yazo. Izinhlangano ezixhumene kahle kakhulu zizonyusa isabelomali sazo sokugwazisa ukuze zikhokhele osopolitiki namaphoyisa abenele ukuthi baqhubeke nokusebenza ngaphandle kokuhlukunyezwa ... okungenani isikhathi esithile. Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, izinhlangano zobugebengu zizotshala ingxenye enkulu yenzuzo yazo yobugebengu emisebenzini yezomnotho esemthethweni. Nakuba kunzima ukukucabanga namuhla, le nketho yokwethembeka izomane ibe inketho yokumelana okuncane, inikeze izinhlangano zobugebengu imbuyiselo engcono ekutshalweni kwazo uma kuqhathaniswa nezenzo zobugebengu ezobuchwephesha bamaphoyisa ezizozenza zibize kakhulu futhi zibe yingozi.

Ukuhlakaza ubugebengu obuhleliwe

Ingqikithi yalolu chungechunge ithi ikusasa lobugebengu wukuphela kobugebengu. Futhi uma kuziwa ebugebengwini obuhleliwe, lesi isiphetho abangeke basibalekele. Kuyo yonke iminyaka eyishumi eya phambili, amaphoyisa nezinhlangano zezobunhloli zizobona intuthuko enkulu ekuqoqweni kwawo, ekuhleleni nasekuhlaziyweni kwedatha emikhakheni eyahlukene, kusukela kwezezimali kuye ezinkundleni zokuxhumana, kusukela kwezindawo ezithengiswayo kuya ekuthengisweni kwezitolo, nokunye. Amakhompiyutha amakhulu wamaphoyisa azayo azohlunga yonke le datha enkulu ukuze ahlukanise izenzo zobugebengu futhi ukusuka lapho, ahlukanise izigebengu namanethiwekhi obugebengu abhekene nawo.

Ngokwesibonelo, isahluko sesine bakithi Ikusasa Lamaphoyisa uchungechunge luxoxisane ngokuthi izikhungo zamaphoyisa emhlabeni wonke seziqale kanjani ukusebenzisa isofthiwe yezibalo eziqagelayo—leli ithuluzi elihumusha imibiko nezibalo zobugebengu ezingaba minyaka yonke, kuhlanganiswe nedatha yesikhathi sangempela sasemadolobheni, ukubikezela amathuba kanye nohlobo lomsebenzi wobugebengu okungenzeka wenzeke. nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, kuzo zonke izingxenye zedolobha. Iminyango yamaphoyisa isebenzisa le datha ukuze itshale amaphoyisa ezindaweni zasemadolobheni ezisengozini enkulu ukuze abambe kangcono ubugebengu njengoba kwenzeka noma ethuse labo abangaba izigebengu ngokuphelele.

Ngokufanayo, onjiniyela bezempi ziyathuthuka isofthiwe engabikezela izinhlaka zenhlalo zamaqembu ezigebengu zasemgwaqweni. Ngokuziqonda kangcono lezi zinhlaka, izikhungo zamaphoyisa zizoba semathubeni angcono okuziphazamisa ngokuboshwa okubalulekile. Futhi e-Italy, iqoqo onjiniyela besoftware abadaliwe isizindalwazi esimaphakathi, esisebenziseka kalula, sesikhathi sangempela, sesizindalwazi kazwelonke sazo zonke izimpahla ezithathwe iziphathimandla zase-Italy ku-Mafia. Izikhungo zamaphoyisa zase-Italy manje zisebenzisa lesi sizindalwazi ukuze ziqondise ngempumelelo umsebenzi wazo wokuphoqelela ngokumelene namaqembu amaningi e-mafia ezwe lawo.

Lezi zibonelo ezimbalwa ziyisampula yakuqala yemiklamo eminingi eqhubekayo manje yokwenza umsebenzi wezomthetho uhambisane nobugebengu obuhleliwe. Lobu buchwepheshe obusha buzokwehlisa kakhulu izindleko zokuphenya izinhlangano zobugebengu eziyinkimbinkimbi futhi kwenze kube lula ukuzishushisa. Eqinisweni, ngo-2040, ubuchwepheshe bokuqapha nokuhlaziya obuzotholakala emaphoyiseni buzokwenza ukuqhuba inhlangano yezigebengu yendabuko, ephakathi nendawo cishe kungenzeki. Okuguquguqukayo, njengoba kubonakala kuhlale kwenzeka, ukuthi ngabe izwe linabo yini osopolitiki abangenankohlakalo nabaphathi bamaphoyisa abazimisele ukusebenzisa la mathuluzi ukuqeda lezi zinhlangano unomphela.