I-Quantumrun

ISIKWELETU SESITHOMBE: I-Quantumrun

Ingabe abantu bayophila ngokuthula esikhathini esizayo esibuswa ubuhlakani bokwenziwa? - Ikusasa intelligence yokwenziwa P6

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 13:10

Uma kukhulunywa ngesintu, ake sithi asinalo irekhodi elikhulu kunawo wonke uma kuziwa endabeni yokuhlalisana 'nomunye.' Kungaba ukuqothulwa kohlanga kwamaJuda eJalimane noma amaTutsi eRwanda, ukugqilazwa kwabantu base-Afrika yizizwe zaseNtshonalanga noma izigqila zaseSoutheast Asia. manje ukusebenza emazweni e-Middle East Gulf, noma ngisho nokushushiswa kwamanje abantu baseMexico e-US noma ababaleki baseSyria emazweni akhethiwe e-EU. Kukho konke, ukwesaba kwethu okungokwemvelo ngalabo esibabona behlukile kunathi kungasiholela ekwenzeni izenzo ezingalawula noma (ezimweni ezimbi kakhulu) ezicekele phansi labo esibesabayo.

Ingabe singalindela okuthile okuhlukile lapho ubuhlakani bokwenziwa bufana nomuntu ngempela?

Ngabe sizophila esikhathini esizayo lapho sizophilisana khona nezidalwa ezizimele ze-AI-robot, njengoba kubonakala ku-Star Wars saga, noma sizoshushisa futhi sigqilaze izidalwa ze-AI njengoba kuboniswe ku-Bladerunner franchise? (Uma ungabonanga okunye kwalokhu okuyisisekelo kwamasiko e-pop, usalindeni?)

Lena imibuzo kulesi sahluko sokuvala Ikusasa Le-Artificial Intelligence uchungechunge luthemba ukuphendula. Kubalulekile ngoba uma izibikezelo ezenziwe abacwaningi be-AI abaphambili zilungile, khona-ke maphakathi nekhulunyaka, thina bantu sizobe sabelana ngomhlaba wethu nenala yezidalwa ze-AI ezihlukahlukene—ngakho-ke sithola kangcono indlela yokuphila eduze kwabo ngokuthula.

Ingabe abantu bangakwazi ukuncintisana nobuhlakani bokwenziwa?

Kholwa noma ungakholwa, singakwazi.

Umuntu ojwayelekile (ngo-2018) usevele uphakeme kune-AI ethuthuke kakhulu. Njengoba kubonisiwe esihlokweni sethu isahluko sokuqala, i-artificial narrow intelligences (ANIs) yanamuhla ingcono kakhulu kunabantu ethize imisebenzi ababedalelwe yona, kodwa baphelelwa ithemba lapho becelwa ukuba benze umsebenzi ongaphandle kwalowo mklamo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, abantu, kanye nezinye izilwane eziningi emhlabeni, bahamba phambili ekuzivumelaniseni nezimo ukuze siphishekele imigomo ezindaweni ezihlukahlukene— definition yobuhlakani ekhuthazwa ososayensi bamakhompyutha uMarcus Hutter noShane Legg.

Le mfanelo yokuvumelana nezimo endaweni yonke ayibonakali njengento enkulu, kodwa idinga ikhono lokuhlola isithiyo emgomweni, ukuhlela ukuhlola ukuze unqobe leso sithiyo, uthathe isinyathelo sokwenza ukuhlola, ufunde emiphumeleni, bese uqhubeka. ukuphishekela umgomo. Zonke izinto eziphilayo emhlabeni ngokuzenzekelayo zisebenzisa le loop yokuguquguquka izinkulungwane kuya ezigidini zezikhathi usuku ngalunye, futhi kuze kube yilapho i-AI ifunda ukwenza okufanayo, iyohlala ingamathuluzi okusebenza angaphili.

Kepha ngiyazi ukuthi ucabangani: Lonke lolu chungechunge lwekusasa lezibikezelo zobuhlakani bokwenziwa ezinikezwe isikhathi esanele, izinhlangano ze-AI zizogcina zihlakaniphe njengabantu, futhi kungekudala ngemuva kwalokho, zihlakaniphe kakhulu kunabantu.

Lesi sahluko ngeke siphikisane nalokho.

Kodwa ugibe abahlaziyi abaningi abawela kulo wukucabanga ukuthi ngenxa yokuthi ukuziphendukela kwemvelo kwathatha izigidi zeminyaka ukukhiqiza ubuchopho bebhayoloji, kuzodlula ngendlela engenathemba uma ama-AI efinyelela iphuzu lapho engathuthukisa khona i-hardware yawo kanye nesoftware ngemijikelezo emifushane nje neminyaka, izinyanga. , mhlawumbe ngisho nezinsuku.

Ngokujabulisayo, ukuziphendukela kwemvelo kunempi esele kukho, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yentuthuko yamuva nje yokwakhiwa kwezakhi zofuzo.

Okokuqala kuhlanganiswe ochungechungeni lwethu ku ikusasa lokuziphendukela kwemvelo komuntu, izazi zofuzo sezibonile 69 izakhi zofuzo ezahlukene lokho kuthinta intelligence, kodwa ndawonye kuthinta kuphela i-IQ ngamaphesenti angaphansi kwayisishiyagalombili. Lokhu kusho ukuthi kungase kube amakhulu, noma izinkulungwane, zezakhi zofuzo ezithinta ubuhlakani, futhi kuzodingeka singagcini nje ngokuzitholela zonke, kodwa futhi sifunde ukuthi singazilawula kanjani ngokubikezela zonke ndawonye ngaphambi kokuthi sicabange ngisho nokuhlukumeza umbungu' I-DNA.

Kodwa maphakathi nawo-2040s, umkhakha we-genomics uzovuthwa kuze kube seqophelweni lapho i-genome ye-fetus ingenziwa kahle imephu, futhi ukuhlelwa ku-DNA yayo kungenziwa ikhompuyutha ukuze kubikezelwe ngokunembile ukuthi izinguquko ku-genome yazo zizoba nomthelela kanjani esikhathini esizayo ngokomzimba, ngokomzwelo. , futhi okubaluleke kakhulu kule ngxoxo, izici zayo zobuhlakani.

Ngamanye amazwi, maphakathi nekhulu leminyaka, lapho iningi labacwaningi be-AI likholelwa ukuthi i-AI izofinyelela futhi mhlawumbe idlule ubuhlakani bezinga lomuntu, sizothola ikhono lokuguqula izakhi zofuzo zonke izizukulwane zezingane ezingabantu ukuze zihlakaniphe kakhulu kunezizukulwane ezandulele. bona.

Sibheke ekusaseni lapho abantu abahlakaniphe kakhulu bezohlala eduze kwe-AI ehlakaniphe kakhulu.

Umthelela womhlaba ogcwele abantu abahlakaniphe kakhulu

Ngakho-ke, sihlakaniphe kangakanani lapha? Ngokomongo, ama-IQ ka-Albert Einstein kanye no-Stephen Hawking athole amaphuzu acishe abe ngu-160. Uma sesivule izimfihlo ezingemuva komaka be-genomic abalawula ubuhlakani, singakwazi ukubona abantu abazalwa benama-IQ bedlula i-1,000.

Lokhu kubalulekile ngoba izingqondo ezinjengo-Einstein kanye no-Hawking zisize ekuvuseni impumelelo yesayensi manje elandela isisekelo somhlaba wethu wanamuhla. Isibonelo, ingxenye encane kuphela yabantu bomhlaba eqonda noma yini nge-physics, kodwa amaphesenti abalulekile e-GDP yomhlaba ancike ekutholeni kwawo—ubuchwepheshe obufana ne-smartphone, isistimu yesimanje yezokuxhumana (i-inthanethi), kanye ne-GPS ngeke ibe khona ngaphandle kwe-quantum mechanics. .

Uma kubhekwa lo mthelela, hlobo luni lwentuthuko isintu esingaba nayo uma sizala sonke isizukulwane sezihlakaniphi? Amakhulu ezigidi zika-Einstein?

Impendulo ayinakuqagelwa njengoba umhlaba ungakaze ubone ukuhlangana okunjalo kwezihlakaniphi ezinkulu.

Bayoba njani laba bantu?

Ukuze uthole ukunambitheka, vele ucabangele indaba yomuntu ohlakaniphe kunabo bonke, UWilliam James Sidis (1898-1944), owayene-IQ engaba ngu-250. Wayekwazi ukufunda eneminyaka emibili. Wayekhuluma izilimi eziyisishiyagalombili lapho eneminyaka eyisithupha. Wamukelwa eNyuvesi yaseHarvard eneminyaka engu-11. Futhi uSidis uhlakaniphe ngendlela efanayo nalokho isazi sezinto eziphilayo esicabanga ukuthi abantu bangaba yilo ngolunye usuku ngokuhlelwa kofuzo.

(Isaziso esiseceleni: sikhuluma ngobuhlakani kuphela lapha, asithinti ngisho nokuhlelwa kofuzo okungasenza sibe namandla angaphezu kwawomuntu ngokomzimba. Funda kabanzi lapha.)

Eqinisweni, kungenzeka kakhulu ukuthi abantu kanye ne-AI bangathuthuka ngokubambisana ngokwakha uhlobo oluthile lwempendulo eqondile, lapho i-AI ethuthukisiwe isiza izazi zezakhi zofuzo zikwazi kahle igenome yomuntu ukuze zakhe abantu abahlakanipha ngokwandayo, abantu abayobe sebesebenzela ukudala i-AI ehlakaniphe ngokuya ngokuya ngokuya ihlakanipha, nokunye. ku. Ngakho-ke, yebo, njengoba nje abacwaningi be-AI bebikezela, Umhlaba ungathola kahle ukuqhuma kobuhlakani phakathi nekhulu leminyaka, kodwa ngokusekelwe engxoxweni yethu kuze kube manje, abantu (hhayi nje i-AI) bazozuza kulokho kuvukela.

AmaCyborgs phakathi kwethu

Ukugxekwa okufanelekile kule mpikiswano emayelana nabantu abahlakaniphe kakhulu ukuthi noma singaba nekhono elihle lokuhlela izakhi zofuzo maphakathi nekhulunyaka, kuzothatha eminye iminyaka engama-20 kuye kwengama-30 ngaphambi kokuba lesi sizukulwane esisha sabantu sivuthwe kuze kube seqophelweni lapho singaba neqhaza elikhulu ekuthuthukisweni kwethu. emphakathini ngisho nangaphandle kwenkundla yokudlala ehambisana ne-AI. Ngabe lokhu kubambezeleka bekungeke yini kunikeze i-AI isiqalo esibalulekile ngokumelene nesintu uma benquma ukwenza 'ububi'?

Kungakho, njengebhuloho phakathi kwabantu banamuhla kanye nabantu bakusasa abanamandla angaphezu kwavamile, kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-2030, sizobona ukuqala kwesigaba esisha sabantu: i-cyborg, ingxube yabantu nomshini.

(Uma sikhuluma iqiniso, kuye ngokuthi uwachaza kanjani ama-cyborgs, asevele ekhona kakade—ikakhulukazi, abantu abanezitho zokufakelwa ngenxa yamanxeba empi, izingozi, noma ukukhubazeka kofuzo lapho bezalwa. Kodwa ukuze sihlale sigxile emongweni walesi sahluko, thina 'Sizogxila kuma-prosthetics ahloselwe ukukhulisa izingqondo zethu nokuhlakanipha.)

Kuxoxwe okokuqala kweyethu Ikusasa Lamakhompyutha uchungechunge, abacwaningi njengamanje bakha inkambu ye-bioelectronics ebizwa ngokuthi i-Brain-Computer Interface (BCI). Kuhilela ukusebenzisa umshini wokuskena ubuchopho noma isigxivizo ukuze ugade amaza obuchopho bakho, uwaguqule abe ikhodi, bese uwahlobanisa nemiyalo yokulawula noma yini eqhutshwa ikhompuyutha.

Sisesezinsukwini zakuqala, kodwa ngokusebenzisa i-BCI, abanqunyiwe manje ukuhlola izitho zerobhothi kulawulwa izingqondo zabo ngokuqondile, esikhundleni sokusebenzisa izinzwa ezinamathele esiphunzini sabo. Ngokufanayo, abantu abakhubazekile kakhulu (njengabantu abane-quadriplegia) manje usebenzisa i-BCI ukuqondisa izihlalo zabo ezinamasondo ezinenjini futhi usebenzise izingalo zamarobhothi. Kodwa ukusiza abanqanyulwe isitho kanye nabantu abakhubazekile baphile izimpilo ezizimele akusilo izinga lalokho i-BCI ezokwazi ukukwenza.

Lokho ngeminyaka yawo-2030 okuzobukeka njengesigqoko sokuzivikela noma ibhande lezinwele ekugcineni kuzonikeza indawo yokufakelwa kobuchopho (ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040s) okuzoxhuma izingqondo zethu efwini ledijithali (I-inthanethi). Ekugcineni, lesi sithako sobuchopho sizosebenza njengenkabazwe yesithathu yezingqondo zethu—ngakho-ke ngenkathi i-hemispheres yethu yesokunxele nesokudla ilawula ubuhlakani bethu bokudala nokunengqondo, le ndawo entsha, egcwele ngamafu, nedijithali izokwenza lula ukufinyelela olwazini ngokushesha futhi ithuthukise ingqondo. izibaluli lapho abantu bevama ukuntula kozakwabo be-AI, okuyijubane, ukuphindaphinda, nokunemba.

Futhi nakuba lokhu kufakelwa kobuchopho kungeke ngempela kukhulise ubuhlakani bethu, kuzosenza sikwazi futhi sizimele, njengoba kwenza omakhalekhukhwini bethu namuhla.

Ikusasa eligcwele ubuhlakani obuhlukahlukene

Konke lokhu kukhuluma ngama-AI, ama-cyborgs kanye nabantu abahlakaniphe kakhulu kuvula elinye iphuzu okufanele licatshangelwe: Ikusasa lizobona ukuhlukahluka okucebile kobuhlakani kunalokho esake sakubona emlandweni womuntu noma womhlaba imbala.

Cabanga ngakho, ngaphambi kokuphela kwaleli khulu leminyaka, sikhuluma ngezwe elizayo eligcwele:

Ubuhlakani bezinambuzane
Ubuhlakani bezilwane
Ubuhlakani bomuntu
I-Cybernetically ithuthukiswe ubuhlakani bomuntu
Ubuhlakani obujwayelekile bokwenziwa (ama-AGI)
Ama-superintelligences okwenziwa (Njengoba kunjalo)
I-super intelligences yabantu
I-Cybernetically ithuthukiswe ubuhlakani obukhulu babantu
Izingqondo ezixubile zomuntu-AI
Eminye imikhakha embalwa ephakathi esikhuthaza abafundi ukuthi bayihlanganise bese babelane ngayo esigabeni sokuphawula.

Ngamanye amazwi, umhlaba wethu usuyikhaya lezinhlobonhlobo zezinhlobo zezinto eziphilayo, ngayinye enezinhlobo zayo ezihlukile zobuhlakani, kodwa ikusasa lizobona ukuhlukahluka okukhulu nakakhulu kobuhlakani, kulokhu kunweba isiphetho esiphezulu seladi lokuqonda. Ngakho njengoba nje isizukulwane sanamuhla sifunda ukwabelana ngomhlaba wethu nezinambuzane nezilwane ezinomthelela ohlelweni lwethu lwendalo, izizukulwane ezizayo kuyodingeka zifunde ukuthi zingaxhumana kanjani futhi zisebenzisane nezinhlobonhlobo zobuhlakani esingenakuzicabanga namuhla.

Yebo, umlando usitshela ukuthi 'ukwabelana' akukaze kube isudi eqinile kubantu. Amakhulu kuya ezinkulungwaneni zezilwane ziye zashabalala ngenxa yokwanda kwabantu, sekunyamalale amakhulukhulu empucuko engathuthuki kakhulu ngaphansi kokunqotshwa kwemibuso ekhulayo.

Lezi zinhlekelele zibangelwa isidingo somuntu sezinsiza (ukudla, amanzi, izinto zokusetshenziswa, njll.) futhi ngokwengxenye, ukwesaba nokungathembani okuphakathi kwempucuko yangaphandle noma abantu. Ngamanye amazwi, izinhlekelele zesikhathi esidlule nezamanje zibangelwa yizizathu ezindala njengempucuko ngokwayo, futhi zizoba zimbi nakakhulu lapho kwethulwa zonke lezi zigaba ezintsha zobuhlakani.

Umthelela wamasiko womhlaba ogcwele ubuhlakani obuhlukahlukene

Okumangalisayo nokwesaba yimizwa emibili engafingqa kangcono imizwa engqubuzanayo abantu abazoyithola uma zonke lezi zinhlobo ezintsha zobuhlakani sezingena emhlabeni.

'Ngiyamangala' ngobuhlakani bomuntu obusetshenziswa ukudala bonke lobu buhlakani obusha babantu ne-AI, kanye namathuba abangase bawadale. Bese 'ukwesaba' ngenxa yokuntula ukuqonda nokujwayela izizukulwane zamanje zabantu ezizoba nazo nezizukulwane ezizayo zalezi zidalwa 'ezithuthukisiwe'.

Ngakho njengoba nje umhlaba wezilwane ungaphezu kokuqonda kwesinambuzane esivamile, futhi umhlaba wabantu ungaphezu kokuqonda kwesilwane esivamile, umhlaba wama-AI kanye nabantu abahlakaniphe kakhulu bayoba ngaphezu kobubanzi balokho okwenzeka namuhla. umuntu ojwayelekile uzokwazi ukuqonda.

Futhi noma izizukulwane ezizayo zizokwazi ukuxhumana nalezi zihlakaniphi ezintsha eziphezulu, akufani nokuthi sizofana kakhulu. Ezahlukweni ezethula ama-AGI nama-ASI, sichazile ukuthi kungani ukuzama ukucabanga ngobuhlakani be-AI njengobuhlakani bomuntu kungaba yiphutha.

Kafushane, imizwa engokwemvelo eqhuba umcabango womuntu iyifa lokuziphendukela kwemvelo elivela ezizukulwaneni zabantu ezinezinkulungwane zeminyaka ezifuna izinsiza, abalingani bokukhwelana, izibopho zomphakathi, ukuphila, njll. Ikusasa AI ngeke ibe nalo mthwalo wokuziphendukela kwemvelo. Esikhundleni salokho, lezi zihlakaniphi zedijithali zizoba nemigomo, izindlela zokucabanga, izinhlelo zenani ezihluke ngokuphelele kubo.

Ngokunjalo, njengoba nje abantu besimanje sebefunde ukucindezela izici zezifiso zabo zemvelo zobuntu ngenxa yobuhlakani bethu (isb. sikhawulela abalingani bethu bocansi lapho sisebudlelwaneni obuzibophezele; sibeka izimpilo zethu engozini ngenxa yabantu esingabazi ngenxa yemicabango ecatshangelwayo yokuhlonipha nokulunga, njll.) , abantu bakusasa bangase bayinqobe ngokuphelele le mizwa engokwemvelo. Uma lokhu kungenzeka, khona-ke sisebenzelana ngempela nabafokazi, hhayi nje isigaba esisha sabantu.

Ingabe kuzoba nokuthula phakathi kwezinhlanga ezinkulu ezizayo kanye nathi sonke?

Ukuthula kuvela ekwethembeni nasekuthembekeni kuvela ekujwayeleni nasezinjongweni okwabelwana ngazo. Singakwazi ukususa ukujwayelana etafuleni njengoba sesixoxile kakade ukuthi abantu abangathuthukisiwe banokuncane okufanayo, ngokuqonda, nalezi zihlakaniphi eziphezulu.

Kwesinye isimo, lokhu kuqhuma kobuhlakani kuzomela ukukhula kohlobo olusha ngokuphelele lokungalingani, oludala izigaba zezenhlalo ezisekelwe kwezobuhlakani okuzoba cishe akunakwenzeka ukuthi labo abavela ezigabeni eziphansi baphakame. Futhi njengoba nje igebe lezomnotho elandayo phakathi kwabacebile nabampofu libangela iziyaluyalu namuhla, igebe phakathi kwezigaba/izibalo ezihlukene zobuhlakani lingase lidale ukwesaba okwanele nokucasuka okungase kuqhubekele ezinhlotsheni ezihlukahlukene zokushushiswa noma impi engapheli. Kwabanye ofunda nabo incwadi yamahlaya laphaya, lokhu kungase kukukhumbuze umlando wokushushiswa ovela ku-Marvel's X-men franchise.

Esinye isimo ukuthi lezi zihlakaniphi eziphezulu zesikhathi esizayo zizovele zithole izindlela zokukhohlisa isixuku esilula ukuze sibamukele emphakathini wabo-noma okungenani kuze kufike ephuzwini eligwema lonke udlame.

Ngakho, yisiphi isimo esizophumelela?

Ngokunokwenzeka, sizobona okuthile okudlala phakathi. Ekuqaleni kwalolu shintsho lwezobunhloli, sizobona okujwayelekile 'i-technopanic,' lowo uchwepheshe wezomthetho nenqubomgomo, u-Adam Thierer, uchaza njengokulandela iphethini evamile yomphakathi:

Umehluko wezizukulwane eziholela ekwesabeni okusha, ikakhulukazi lezo eziphazamisa imikhuba yezenhlalo noma eziqeda imisebenzi (funda ngomthelela we-AI kwethi Ikusasa Lomsebenzi uchungechunge);
"I-Hypernostalgia" yezinsuku ezimnandi zakudala, empeleni, zazingakaze zibe zinhle kangako;
Ukukhuthaza izintatheli nosolwazi ukuthi besabe mayelana nobuchwepheshe obusha namathrendi ukuze bathole ukuchofoza, ukubukwa, nokuthengiswa kwezikhangiso;
Izithakazelo ezikhethekile ezigobelana ngemali kahulumeni noma isenzo kuye ngokuthi iqembu labo lithintwa kanjani lobu buchwepheshe obusha;
Izimo zengqondo zama-Elitist ezivela kubagxeki bezemfundo namasiko abesaba ubuchwepheshe obusha umphakathi obamukelayo;
Abantu baveza izimpikiswano zokuziphatha namasiko zayizolo nanamuhla kubuchwepheshe obusha bakusasa.

Kodwa njenganoma iyiphi intuthuko entsha, abantu bazojwayela. Okubaluleke nakakhulu, nakuba izinhlobo ezimbili zezilwane zingase zingacabangi ngokufanayo, ukuthula kungatholakala ngezithakazelo noma imigomo ehambisanayo.

Isibonelo, le AI entsha ingakha ubuchwepheshe obusha nezinhlelo zokuthuthukisa izimpilo zethu. Futhi ngokubuyisela, uxhaso lwezimali kanye nokwesekwa kukahulumeni kuzoqhubeka nokuqhubekisela phambili izintshisekelo ze-AI jikelele, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yokuncintisana okusebenzayo phakathi kwezinhlelo ze-AI zaseShayina nezase-US.

Ngokufanayo, lapho kuziwa endabeni yokudala abantu abanamandla angaphezu kwavamile, amaqembu enkolo emazweni amaningi ayomelana nokuthambekela kokuguqula izakhi zofuzo ezinganeni zawo. Kodwa-ke, ukusebenziseka kanye nentshisekelo kazwelonke kuzowudiliza kancane kancane lo mgoqo. Ngaphambilini, abazali bazolingeka ukuba basebenzise ubuchwepheshe bokuhlela izakhi zofuzo ukuze baqinisekise ukuthi izingane zabo zizalwa zinesifo futhi zingenasici, kodwa lowo mgomo wokuqala uwumthambeka oshelelayo obheke ekuthuthukisweni kofuzo okuhlaselayo. Ngokunjalo, uma i-China iqala ukuthuthukisa ngokofuzo kuzo zonke izizukulwane zabantu bayo, i-US izoba necebo elibalulekile lokulandela okufanayo noma ingozi yokusalela emuva unomphela emashumini amabili eminyaka kamuva—futhi kuyoba njalo nomhlaba wonke.

Njengoba kushubile njengoba sonke lesi sahluko sifunda, sidinga ukukhumbula ukuthi konke lokhu kuzoba inqubo kancane kancane. Kuzokwenza umhlaba wethu wehluke kakhulu futhi ube yinqaba kakhulu. Kodwa sizojwayela, futhi kuzoba ikusasa lethu.