Umthetho kaMoore oshabalalayo wokuvusa ukucabanga kabusha okuyisisekelo kwama-microchips: Ikusasa Lamakhompiyutha P4

Amakhompiyutha-awuhlobo lwento enkulu. Kodwa ukuze siwazise ngempela amathrendi asafufusa esiwashilo kuze kube manje ochungechungeni lwethu lwe-Future of Computers, sidinga futhi ukuqonda izinguquko ezehla ngepayipi lekhompyutha, noma kalula: ikusasa lama-microchips.

Ukuze sisuse izinto eziyisisekelo endleleni, kufanele siqonde uMthetho kaMoore, umthetho odumile manje uDkt. Gordon E. Moore owasungulwa ngo-1965. Empeleni, lokho uMoore akuqaphela kuwo wonke lawo mashumi eminyaka adlule ukuthi inani lama-transistors kusekethe edidiyelwe liphindwe kabili. njalo ezinyangeni ezingu-18 kuya kwezingu-24. Yingakho ikhompyutha efanayo oyithengayo namuhla ngo-$1,000 izokubiza u-$500 eminyakeni emibili kusukela manje.

Ngaphezu kweminyaka engamashumi amahlanu, imboni ye-semiconductor iye yaphila ngokuvumelana nalo mthetho ohlanganisa izitayela, ivula indlela yezinhlelo zokusebenza ezintsha, imidlalo yevidiyo, ukusakaza ividiyo, izinhlelo zokusebenza zeselula, nabo bonke obunye ubuchwepheshe bedijithali obuchaze isiko lethu lesimanje. Kepha yize isidingo salokhu kukhula sibukeka sengathi sizohlala siqinile kwenye ingxenye yekhulu leminyaka, i-silicon — impahla ewumgogodla wonke ama-microchips esimanje akhiwe ngayo—akubonakali sengathi izohlangabezana naleso sidingo isikhathi eside esidlule ngo-2021—ngokusho umbiko wokugcina ovela ku I-International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)

I-physics ngempela: imboni ye-semiconductor incipha ama-transistors esikalini se-athomu, i-silicon yesikali izobe ingafanelekile. Futhi lapho le mboni izama kakhulu ukunciphisa i-silicon idlule imikhawulo yayo ephezulu, kuzobiza kakhulu ukuvela kwe-microchip ngayinye.

Yilapho esikhona namuhla. Eminyakeni embalwa, i-silicon ngeke isaba yinto engabizi kakhulu yokwakha isizukulwane esilandelayo sama-microchips asezingeni eliphezulu. Lo mkhawulo uzophoqa uguquko kugesi ngokuphoqa imboni ye-semiconductor (nomphakathi) ukuthi ikhethe phakathi kwezinketho ezimbalwa:

• Inketho yokuqala ukunciphisa, noma ukuqeda, intuthuko ebizayo ukuze kuthuthukiswe i-silicon encane, ukuze kutholakale izindlela ezintsha zokuklama ama-microchip akhiqiza amandla amaningi okucubungula ngaphandle kokwenziwa okuncane okwengeziwe.

• Okwesibili, thola izinto ezintsha ezingashintshwa ngezikali ezincane kakhulu kune-silicon ukuze ugxilise amanani amakhulu kakhulu ama-transistors kuma-microchips aminyene.

• Okwesithathu, esikhundleni sokugxila ekwenziweni okuncane noma ekuthuthukisweni kokusetshenziswa kwamandla, phinda ugxile esivinini sokucubungula ngokudala amaphrosesa akhethekile ezimweni ezithile zokusetshenziswa. Lokhu kungase kusho esikhundleni sokuba ne-chip eyodwa ye-generalist, amakhompyutha esikhathi esizayo angase abe neqoqo lama-chips akhethekile. Izibonelo zifaka phakathi ama-graph chips asetshenziselwa ukuthuthukisa imidlalo yevidiyo ukuze Isingeniso se-Google ye-chip ye-Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) egxile ekusetshenzisweni kokufunda komshini.

• Okokugcina, klama isofthiwe entsha nengqalasizinda yamafu engasebenza ngokushesha nangempumelelo ngaphandle kokudinga ama-microchips aminyene/amancane.

Iyiphi inketho ezokhethwa yimboni yethu yezobuchwepheshe? Eqinisweni: bonke.

Indlela yokuphila yoMthetho kaMoore

Uhlu olulandelayo luwukubuka kafushane izimbangi ezintsha eziseduze nezesikhathi eside ngaphakathi kwemboni ye-semiconductor ezosetshenziswa ukugcina uMthetho kaMoore uphila. Le ngxenye iminyene kancane, kodwa sizozama ukuyigcina ifundeka.

Ama-nanomaterials. Izinkampani ezihamba phambili ze-semiconductor, njenge-Intel, sezivele zimemezele ukuthi zizokwenza lahla i-silicon uma sebefinyelele esikalini se-miniaturization sama-nanometer ayisikhombisa (7nm). Abazongena esikhundleni se-silicon bahlanganisa i-indium antimonide (InSb), i-indium gallium arsenide (InGaAs), ne-silicon-germanium (SiGe) kodwa into ejabulisa kakhulu ibonakala sengathi i-carbon nanotubes. Yenziwe nge-graphite—ngokwayo okuyinqwaba yezinto ezimangalisayo, i-graphene—ama-carbon nanotubes angenziwa ama-athomu awugqinsi, asebenza kahle kakhulu, futhi kulinganiselwa ukuthi azokwenza ama-microchips azayo asheshe afinyelele kahlanu ngo-2020.

I-Optical Computing. Enye yezinselelo ezinkulu mayelana nokuklama ama-chips ukuqinisekisa ukuthi ama-electron aweqi ukusuka kwenye i-transistor ukuya kwenye—okucatshangelwayo okuba nzima kakhulu uma usungene kuleveli ye-athomu. Ubuchwepheshe obusafufusa be-optical computing bubukeka bushintsha ama-electron esikhundleni sama-photons, lapho ukukhanya (hhayi ugesi) kudlula kusuka ku-transistor kuya ku-transistor. In 2017, abacwaningi bathatha isinyathelo esikhulu ekufinyeleleni kulo mgomo ngokubonisa ikhono lokugcina ukwaziswa okusekelwe ekukhanyeni (ama-photon) njengamaza omsindo kuyi-computer chip. Ngokusebenzisa le ndlela, ama-microchip angasebenza eduze nesivinini sokukhanya ngo-2025.

I-Spintronics. Ngaphezulu kweminyaka engamashumi amabili ekuthuthukisweni, ama-spintronic transistors azama ukusebenzisa 'i-spin' ye-electron esikhundleni sokushaja kwayo ukumela ulwazi. Nakuba kusekude nokuhweba, uma ixazululwa, leli fomu le-transistor lizodinga kuphela ama-millivolts angu-10-20 ukuze asebenze, izikhathi ezingamakhulu ezincane kune-transistors evamile; lokhu kuzophinde kususe izinkinga ezibhekene nezinkampani zama-semiconductor lapho zikhiqiza ama-chips amancane.

I-Neuromorphic Computing kanye ne-memristors. Enye indlela entsha yokuxazulula le nkinga yokucubungula esezayo isengqondweni yomuntu. Abacwaningi kwa-IBM kanye ne-DARPA, ikakhulukazi, bahola ekuthuthukisweni kohlobo olusha lwe-microchip-chip amasekhethi ayo adidiyelwe aklanyelwe ukulingisa indlela yobuchopho ehlukaniseke kakhudlwana nengaqondile kukhompyutha. (Bheka lokhu Isihloko seScienceBlogs ukuze uqonde kangcono umehluko phakathi kobuchopho bomuntu namakhompyutha.) Imiphumela yangaphambili ibonisa ukuthi ama-chips alingisa ubuchopho awagcini nje ngokuphumelela kakhulu, kodwa asebenza esebenzisa amanzi amancane ngendlela engakholeki kunama-microchip anamuhla.

Ngokusebenzisa le ndlela efanayo yokufanisa ubuchopho, i-transistor ngokwayo, ibhlokhi yokwakha eyisaga se-microchip yekhompyutha yakho, ingase ithathelwe indawo i-memristor maduzane. Ingena enkathini "ye-ionics", i-memristor inikeza izinzuzo eziningi ezithakazelisayo ngaphezu kwe-transistor yendabuko:

• Okokuqala, ama-memristors angakhumbula ukugeleza kwe-electron edlula kuwo-ngisho noma amandla enqanyuliwe. Kuhunyushwe, lokhu kusho ukuthi ngelinye ilanga ungavula ikhompuyutha yakho ngesivinini esifana nesesibani sakho.

• Ama-Transistors anambambili, angaba ngu-1 noma ngo-0. Ama-Memristors, ngakolunye uhlangothi, angaba nezimo ezihlukahlukene phakathi kwalezo zimo ezeqisayo, njengo-0.25, 0.5, 0.747, njll. Lokhu kwenza ama-memristors asebenze ngokufana nama-synapses ebuchosheni bethu, futhi lokho kuyinto enkulu njengoba kungavula uhla lwekhompuyutha oluzayo. amathuba.

• Okulandelayo, ama-memristors awadingi i-silicon ukuze asebenze, okuvula indlela yokuthi imboni ye-semiconductor izame ukusebenzisa izinto ezintsha ukuze kuthuthukiswe ama-microchips amancane (njengoba kushiwo ngaphambili).

• Okokugcina, okufana nokutholakele okwenziwe yi-IBM kanye ne-DARPA kukhompyutha ye-neuromorphic, ama-microchips asekelwe kuma-memristors ayashesha, asebenzisa amandla amancane, futhi angabamba ukuminyana kolwazi oluphakeme kunama-chips okwamanje asemakethe.

3D chips. Ama-microchips endabuko kanye nama-transistors awanika amandla asebenza endizeni eyisicaba, enezinhlangothi ezimbili, kodwa ekuqaleni kwawo-2010, izinkampani ze-semiconductor zaqala ukuzama ukungeza isici sesithathu kuma-chips azo. Abizwa ngokuthi 'i-finFET', lawa ma-transistors amasha aneshaneli enamathela phezulu endaweni ye-chip, ewanika ukulawula okungcono okwenzeka eziteshini zawo, okuwavumela ukuthi agijime cishe ngamaphesenti angu-40 ngokushesha, futhi asebenze esebenzisa uhhafu wamandla. Okubi, nokho, ukuthi lawa ma-chips anzima kakhulu (kuyabiza) ukukhiqiza okwamanje.

Kodwa ngaphandle kokuklama kabusha ama-transistors ngamanye, ikusasa 3D chips futhi ihlose ukuhlanganisa ikhompuyutha nokugcinwa kwedatha ngezandlalelo ezistakiwe ziqondile. Njengamanje, amakhompyutha endabuko agcina izinti zawo zememori ngamasentimitha ukusuka kuphrosesa yawo. Kodwa ngokuhlanganisa inkumbulo nokucubungula izingxenye, leli banga lehla lisuka kumasentimitha liye kuma-micrometer, livumela ukuthuthukiswa okukhulu kwesivinini sokucubungula nokusetshenziswa kwamandla.

I-computing ye-Quantum. Uma sibheka phambili esikhathini esizayo, ingxenye enkulu yekhompuyutha yezinga lebhizinisi ingasebenza ngaphansi kwemithetho engavamile ye-quantum physics. Nokho, ngenxa yokubaluleka kwalolu hlobo lwekhompiyutha, silunike esalo isahluko ekupheleni kwalolu chungechunge.

Ama-Super microchips awalona ibhizinisi elihle

Kulungile, ngakho-ke lokho okufunda ngenhla kuhle futhi kuhle—sikhuluma ngama-microchips ayonga amandla amakhulu afanekiselwa ubuchopho bomuntu obukwazi ukugijima ngesivinini sokukhanya—kodwa into iwukuthi, imboni yokwenza ama-semiconductor ayikho. ukulangazelela ngokweqile ukuguqula le miqondo ibe iqiniso elikhiqizwe ngobuningi.

Ama-Tech giants, afana ne-Intel, i-Samsung, ne-AMD, asevele etshale izigidigidi zamaRandi emashumini eminyaka ukukhiqiza ama-microchips endabuko, asekelwe ku-silicon. Ukushintshela kunoma yimiphi imiqondo yenoveli eshiwo ngenhla kungasho ukulahla lokho kutshalwa kwezimali futhi kusetshenziswe izigidigidi ezengeziwe ekwakheni izimboni ezintsha zokukhiqiza ngobuningi amamodeli e-microchip amasha anomlando wokuthengisa onguziro.

Akukona nje ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesikhathi nemali okubuyisela lezi zinkampani zama-semiconductor. Isidingo sabathengi sama-microchips anamandla nakakhulu siyancipha. Cabanga ngalokhu: Phakathi neminyaka yama-90s kanye neningi lama-00s, cishe kwanikezwa ukuthi uzohweba ngekhompyutha noma ifoni yakho, uma kungenjalo minyaka yonke, bese njalo ngemva konyaka. Lokhu kuzokuvumela ukuthi uhambisane nayo yonke isofthiwe entsha nezinhlelo zokusebenza ebeziphuma ukuze wenze impilo yakho yasekhaya neyomsebenzi ibe lula futhi ibe ngcono. Kulezi zinsuku, uthuthukela kangaki kumodeli yakamuva yedeskithophu noma yekhompuyutha ephathekayo emakethe?

Uma ucabanga nge-smartphone yakho, ephaketheni lakho unokuthile obekungabhekwa njengekhompyutha enkulu eminyakeni engama-20 edlule. Ngaphandle kwezikhalazo mayelana nempilo yebhethri nenkumbulo, amafoni amaningi athengwe kusukela ngo-2016 ayakwazi ukusebenzisa noma yiluphi uhlelo lokusebenza noma igeyimu yeselula, ukusakaza noma iyiphi ividiyo yomculo noma iseshini yokucabanga egangile nge-SO yakho, nanoma yini enye ongathanda ukuyenza kumakhalekhukhwini wakho. ifoni. Ingabe udinga ngempela ukuchitha u-$1,000 noma ngaphezulu njalo ngonyaka ukuze wenze lezi zinto kangcono ngamaphesenti angu-10-15? Ungawubona umehluko?

Kubantu abaningi, impendulo ingucha.

Ikusasa loMthetho kaMoore

Esikhathini esedlule, uxhaso oluningi lokutshalwa kwezimali ku-semiconductor tech lwaluvela ekusetshenzisweni kokuvikela kwezempi. Yabe isithathelwa indawo abakhiqizi bezinto zikagesi ezithengwayo, kwathi ngo-2020-2023, ukutshalwa kwezimali okuholela ekuthuthukisweni kwe-microchip kuzophinde kushintshe, kulokhu kusuka ezimbonini ezigxile kulokhu okulandelayo:

• Okuqukethwe kwe-Next-Gen. Ukwethulwa okuzayo kwamadivayisi we-holographic, i-virtual kanye ne-augmented reality emphakathini jikelele kuzogqugquzela isidingo esikhulu sokusakazwa kwedatha, ikakhulukazi njengoba lobu buchwepheshe buvuthwa futhi bukhula ngokuduma ngasekupheleni kwawo-2020.

• I-Cloud Computing. Kuchazwe engxenyeni elandelayo yalolu chungechunge.

• Izimoto ezizimele. Ichazwe ngokucophelela esihlokweni sethu Ikusasa Lezokuthutha chungechunge.

• I-inthanethi yezinto. Ichazwe kweyethu Inthanethi Things isahluko sethu Ikusasa le-inthanethi chungechunge.

• Idatha enkulu nezibalo. Izinhlangano ezidinga ukuqoqwa kwedatha okuvamile—zicabanga ukuthi amasosha, ukuhlola indawo, ababikezeli besimo sezulu, abezemithi, okokusebenza, njll—zizoqhubeka nokufuna amakhompyutha anamandla ngokwengeziwe ukuze ahlaziye amasethi awo akhula njalo edatha eqoqiwe.

Uxhaso lwe-R&D kuma-microchip esizukulwane esilandelayo luzohlala lukhona, kodwa umbuzo uwukuthi ingabe izinga loxhaso elidingekayo kuzinhlobo eziyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu zama-microprocessors lingakwazi yini ukuhambisana nezidingo zokukhula zoMthetho ka-Moore. Uma kubhekwa izindleko zokushintshela kanye nokudayisa izinhlobo ezintsha zama-microchips, okuhambisana nokwehla kwesidingo sabathengi, ukwehla kwesabelomali sikahulumeni esizayo kanye nokuwohloka komnotho, amathuba ukuthi uMthetho kaMoore uzohamba kancane noma ume kafushane ekuqaleni kwawo-2020, ngaphambi kokuthi ubuyiselwe emuva. 2020s, ekuqaleni kwawo-2030.

Ngokuqondene nokuthi kungani uMthetho kaMoore uzokhula ngesivinini futhi, ake sithi ama-microchips asebenzisa i-turbo akuwona ukuphela koguquko olufika epayipini lekhompyutha. Okulandelayo ochungechungeni lwethu Lwekusasa Lamakhompiyutha, sizohlola amathrendi abhebhezela ukukhula kwe-cloud computing.

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