China's space ambitions and its global implications

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  Quantumrun Foresight
• April 15, 2022

Insight summary

The emergence of the private spaceflight industry, known as the global NewSpace concept, has led to a significant reduction in the cost of space exploration, opening new doors for commercialization and international competition. This trend, coupled with China's growing space ambitions and the widening geopolitical importance of space, is reshaping industries, governments, and society at large. From the potential militarization of space to the development of new business models, educational opportunities, and environmental considerations, the future of space exploration presents a complex array of opportunities and challenges that will influence the world in the coming decades.

China space ambitions context

China plans to overtake the US as the leading country in all things space. The competition between these two superpowers, dubbed the 21st-century's space race, has seen significant growth in Chinese space programs as the Communist government directs ever more resources into its nation's space exploration efforts. China's space ambitions are reflected in actions such as coining a Chinese-specific term to refer to their astronauts: A taikonaut (plural taikonauts) is a person who travels to space on behalf of the Chinese space program. Likewise, in 2021, China announced plans to build a space station operated by taikonauts by the end of 2029.

Amid these plans, China has achieved incremental feats ranging from bringing moon rocks to Earth to sending an automated rover to Mars. China’s private space industry is also growing rapidly outside the national space program. In 2020, a commercially built rocket successfully launched a satellite communications system into space. This cumulative effort between national space programs and private companies has the potential to see China leapfrog the US’ space supremacy.

As of January 2023, China had the second-highest number of operational satellites in the Earth's orbit, with the US ranking first, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists' satellite database. China's position, coupled with evidence of anti-satellite systems being developed by China, has prompted the US Department of Defense to issue a warning to China. The warning was focused on these anti-space satellites and the potential of electronic warfare between the two nations that could jeopardize the safety of international space travel and commercialization.

Disruptive impact

The global NewSpace concept, characterized by the emergence of the private spaceflight industry, has significantly reduced the cost of making and launching space rockets since 2010. Reusing old hardware and boosters to build small-sized missiles for orbit has been a key factor in this reduction. US-based private space companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin are contributing to this trend by investing in reusable and self-landing rockets. This approach not only minimizes waste but also fosters a competitive environment that may lead to further cost savings and technological advancements.

Thanks to these cost reductions, the space industry is poised for significant growth, with an opportunity to reach a value of USD $2.7 trillion by 2030, according to Bank of America. For individuals, this trend may open up new possibilities for space tourism and education, making what was once a distant dream more accessible. Companies may find new avenues for investment and collaboration, leading to the development of new technologies and services. Governments, meanwhile, may need to create new regulations and standards to ensure safety and ethical considerations in this rapidly expanding industry.

China's growing interest and investment in space are likely to influence the US government to increase its public-private space funding throughout the 2020s. This competition between major powers is set to make widescale space commercialization a reality by the 2030s. For governments, this means a potential shift in global power dynamics and the need to establish international agreements and cooperation. Educational institutions may also benefit from increased funding, leading to new research opportunities and the development of a workforce skilled in space-related fields. 

Implications of China's space ambitions

Wider implications of China's space ambitions may include:

• A widening of the geopolitical importance of space and increased public funding into space programs not just in the US, but also in the EU and India, leading to a new era of international collaboration and competition in space exploration and technology.
• A growing militarization of space as different nations seek to secure their growing orbital infrastructure against geopolitical rivals, resulting in the need for new international agreements and regulations to prevent potential conflicts.
• A future balkanization of orbit paths around the Earth that may see governments enforce no-orbit zones over their countries to defend against adversarial spy and telecommunications satellites, potentially complicating global communication and surveillance systems.
• The development of new business models in the private space industry, focusing on reusable technology and collaboration with governments, leading to more accessible and affordable space travel for commercial and scientific purposes.
• The emergence of space tourism as a viable industry, creating new opportunities for travel and leisure companies, and leading to the need for regulations and standards to ensure passenger safety and environmental responsibility.
• The potential for space-based research to contribute to advancements in medicine, agriculture, and other fields, leading to improved quality of life and new economic opportunities on Earth.
• The creation of new educational programs and career paths related to space technology and exploration, leading to a skilled workforce capable of supporting a growing space industry.
• The potential environmental impact of increased space launches, leading to the need for sustainable practices and regulations to minimize harm to the Earth's atmosphere and ecosystems.
• The possibility of space-based resources such as mining asteroids, leading to new economic opportunities and challenges in terms of ownership, regulation, and environmental considerations.
• The influence of private space companies on political decision-making and policy, leading to a shift in how governments approach space exploration, regulation, and collaboration with the private sector, with potential implications for transparency, ethics, and public interest.

Questions to consider

• What further steps must China take to ensure that they become the premier space power from a technological and economic perspective?
• What other implications might arise from China’s emerging competitiveness in the space sector?