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Nā mea hou aʻe me ka thorium a me ka fusion energy wildcards: Future of Energy P5

ʻO David Tal, mea hoʻopuka, Futurist
@KekahaNaipo
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Poalua, 09/15/2020 - 10:23

E like me ka hana ʻole ʻana o ka lā i ka ikehu 24/7, ʻaʻole hana maikaʻi loa ia ma kekahi mau wahi o ka honua i hoʻohālikelike ʻia me nā mea ʻē aʻe. E hilinaʻi iaʻu, e hele mai ana mai Kanada mai, aia kekahi mau mahina kahi āu e ʻike ʻole ai i ka lā. ʻOi aku ka hewa ma nā ʻāina Nordic a me Rūsia - ʻo ia paha ka wehewehe ʻana i ka nui o nā metala kaumaha a me nā vodka i hauʻoli ʻia ma laila.

Akā e like me ka mea i ʻōlelo ʻia ma ka hapa mua ʻO kēia Future of Energy series, ʻaʻole ka mana o ka lā ka pāʻani hou i ke kaona. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, aia nā ʻano koho ikehu hou e ulu ana ka ʻenehana e like me ka wikiwiki o ka lā, a ʻo nā kumukūʻai a me ka hoʻopuka uila (ma kekahi mau hihia) e hahau ana i ka lā.

Ma ka ʻaoʻao ʻaoʻao, e kamaʻilio pū mākou e pili ana i kaʻu mea e makemake ai e kapa ʻia ʻo "wildcard renewables." ʻO kēia nā kumu ikehu hou a ikaika loa e hoʻopuka ai i nā hoʻokuʻu kalapona ʻole, akā ʻaʻole i aʻo ʻia nā kumu kūʻai lua ma ke kaiapuni a me ke kaiāulu (a hiki ke hōʻino ʻia).

Ma nā mea a pau, ʻo ka mea a mākou e ʻimi ai ma ʻaneʻi ʻo ka lilo ʻana o ka lā i kumu kumu ikehu nui ma waena o ke kenekulia, e hana pū ʻia ka wā e hiki mai ana i kahi mea inu ikaika o nā mea hou a me nā wildcards. No laila e hoʻomaka kākou me ka renewable kēlā Nā NIMBY a puni ka honua inaina me ke kuko.

Mana makani, ka mea a Don Quixote i ike ole ai

Ke kamaʻilio ka poʻe loea e pili ana i ka ikehu hou, ʻo ka hapa nui o nā mahiʻai makani ma ka ʻaoʻao o ka lā. ʻO ke kumu? ʻAe, ma waena o nā mea hou a pau ma ka mākeke, ʻo nā wili makani nunui ka mea i ʻike nui ʻia - ke kū nei lākou e like me nā manamana lima ʻeha ma nā mahina ʻai a ka poʻe mahiʻai a kaʻawale (a ʻaʻole i kaʻawale) nā hiʻohiʻona kai ma nā wahi he nui o ka honua.

Akā ʻoiai a wahi koho leo inaina iā lākou, ma kekahi mau wahi o ka honua, ke hoʻololi nei lākou i ka hui ʻana o ka ikehu. No ka mea, ʻoiai ua hoʻopōmaikaʻi ʻia kekahi mau ʻāina i ka lā, he makani kekahi a he nui. He aha ka mea i hoʻokahi manawa umbrella-holoi, pani pukaaniani, a me ka hoohiolo ana i ka lauoho ua mahi ʻia (ʻoi aku i nā makahiki ʻelima a ʻehiku i hala) i loko o kahi hale mana o ka hoʻomohala ʻana i ka ikehu hou.

E lawe i nā ʻāina Nordic, no ka laʻana. Ke ulu nei ka makani makani ma kahi kiʻi wikiwiki loa ma Finland a me Denemaka e ʻai nei lākou i nā palena waiwai o kā lākou mau mea kanu ahi. ʻO kēia nā mea kanu mana lanahu, ma ke ala, i manaʻo ʻia e pale i kēia mau ʻāina mai ka "kūpono ʻole" i ka ikehu hou. I kēia manawa, hoʻolālā ʻo Denemaka a me Finland e hoʻopololei i kēia mau mea kanu mana, 2,000 megawatts o ka ikehu lepo, ma waho o ka ʻōnaehana. nā 2030.

Akā ʻaʻole ʻo ia ka poʻe a pau! Ua lilo ʻo Denemaka i nā gangbusters ma ka makani makani e hoʻolālā lākou e hoʻopau loa i ka lanahu ma 2030 a hoʻololi i kā lākou ʻoihana holoʻokoʻa i ka mana hou (ka hapa nui mai ka makani) nā 2050. I kēia manawa, nā hoʻolālā makani makani hou (ex. kekahi, ʻelua) ke puka mai nei i nā manawa a pau e hiki ke hoʻololi i ka ʻoihana a hiki ke hoʻolilo i ka ikehu makani i mea hoihoi i nā ʻāina waiwai o ka lā e like me nā ʻāina waiwai makani.

Mahiai i ka nalu

E pili ana i nā wili makani, akā kanu ʻia ma lalo o ke kai, ʻo ia ke kolu o ke ʻano o ka ikehu hou loa: tidal. Ua like ke ʻano o nā wili o ke kai me nā wili makani, akā ma kahi o ka ʻohi ʻana i ka ikehu mai ka makani, e ʻohi lākou i ko lākou ikehu mai ke kai moana.

ʻAʻole like ka kaulana o nā mahiʻai tidal, ʻaʻole hoʻi e huki nui i ka hoʻopukapuka kālā, e like me ka lā a me ka makani. No ia kumu, ʻaʻole lilo ka tidal i mea pāʻani nui i ka hui hou ʻana ma waho o kekahi mau ʻāina, e like me UK. He mea hilahila ia no ka mea, e like me ka UK Marine Foresight Panel, inā mākou e hopu i ka 0.1 pakeneka wale nō o ka ikehu kinetic tide o ka Honua, ua lawa ia i ka mana o ka honua.

Loaʻa i ka ikehu Tidal kekahi mau pono kūʻokoʻa ma mua o ka lā a me ka makani. No ka laʻana, ʻaʻole like me ka lā a me ka makani, holo maoli ke kai i 24/7. Kokoke mau ke kai, no laila e ʻike mau ʻoe i ka nui o ka mana āu e hana ai i kēlā me kēia lā—maikaʻi no ka wānana a me ka hoʻolālā. A ʻo ka mea nui loa i nā NIMBY ma waho, no ka mea e noho ana nā mahiʻai kai ma lalo o ke kai, ʻaʻole lākou i ʻike ʻia.

Nā mea hou o ke kula kahiko: hydro a me geothermal

Manaʻo paha ʻoe he mea ʻē aʻe i ka wā e kamaʻilio ai e pili ana i nā mea hou, ʻaʻole mākou e hāʻawi nui i ka manawa lewa i kekahi o nā ʻano mea kahiko loa a hoʻohana nui ʻia o nā mea hou: hydro a me geothermal. ʻAe, aia ke kumu maikaʻi no ia mea: E hoʻopau koke ka hoʻololi ʻana i ka mana o ka wai wai, ʻoiai e emi mai ka waiwai o ka geothermal ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ka lā a me ka makani. Akā, e ʻeli hohonu kākou.

Hānai ʻia ka hapa nui o nā wai wai o ka honua e nā muliwai nui a me nā loko i hānai ʻia e ka hoʻoheheʻe ʻana o nā glaciers mai nā pae mauna kokoke, a ma kahi liʻiliʻi, ka wai lepo mai nā wahi ua kiʻekiʻe ma luna o ka ʻilikai. I nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana, hoʻololi ʻia ke aniau e hoʻemi (hoʻoheheʻe a maloʻo paha) ka nui o ka wai e loaʻa mai ana mai kēia mau kumu wai ʻelua.

Hiki ke ʻike ʻia kahi hiʻohiʻona o kēia ma Brazil, kahi ʻāina me kekahi o nā hui ʻōmaʻomaʻo ʻōmaʻomaʻo o ka honua, e hoʻohua ana ma luna o 75 pakeneka o kona ikehu mai ka mana hydroelectric. I nā makahiki i hala iho nei, ua emi ka ua a me ka ulu ʻana o ka maloʻo ua pilikia ka mana mau (ʻeleʻele a me nā ʻeleʻele) i ka hapa nui o ka makahiki. E ʻoi aku ka maʻamau o ia mau ʻano o ka ikehu i kēlā me kēia makahiki i hala, e koi ana i nā ʻāina e hilinaʻi nei i ka hydro e hoʻolilo i kā lākou mau kālā hou ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe.

I kēia manawa, ua lawa ka manaʻo o ka geothermal: ma lalo o kekahi hohonu, wela mau ka Honua; e wili i ka lua hohonu, e kulu i kekahi paipu, e ninini i ka wai i loko, e ohi i ka mahu wela e pi'i mai ana, a e hoohana ia mahu e hoohana i ka turbine a e hooulu i ka ikehu.

Ma kekahi mau ʻāina e like me Iceland, kahi i "hoʻomaikaʻi ʻia" me ka nui o nā lua pele, ʻo ka geothermal kahi mea hana nui o ka ikehu manuahi a me ka ʻōmaʻomaʻo - hoʻopuka ʻo ia ma kahi o 30 pakeneka o ka mana o Iceland. A ma nā wahi i koho ʻia o ka honua i loaʻa nā ʻano tectonic like, he ʻano pono o ka ikehu e hoʻokomo ai. hiki ke hoʻokūkū ma ka hapa nui o nā ʻāina.

ʻO ka wildcard nā mea hou

'Ōlelo pinepine ka poʻe kū'ē i nā mea hou no ko lākou hilinaʻi ʻole, pono mākou e hoʻokomo i nā kumu ikehu nui, paʻa, a lepo hoʻi—e like me ka lanahu, ka aila, a me ke kinoea kūlohelohe wai-e hoʻolako i ka nui o ka ikehu e hoʻokō ai i kā mākou pono. Ua kapa ʻia kēia mau kumu ikehu ma ke ʻano he kumu mana "baseload" no ka mea ua lawelawe maʻamau lākou ma ke ʻano he iwi kuamoʻo o kā mākou ʻōnaehana ikehu. Akā ma kekahi mau wahi o ka honua, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā ʻāina e like me Farani, ʻo ka nuklea ke kumu kumu kumu o ke koho.

Ua lilo ʻo Nuclear i ʻāpana o ka hui ʻana o ka ikehu o ka honua mai ka hopena o ke Kaua Honua II. ʻOiai ʻo ia ka hana ʻenehana i ka nui o ka ikehu zero-carbon, ʻo nā hopena ʻaoʻao e pili ana i ka ʻōpala ʻawaʻawa, nā pōʻino nuklea, a me ka hoʻonui ʻana o nā mea kaua nuklea ua hana i nā hoʻopukapuka hou i ka nuklea a hiki i ka hiki ʻole.

ʻO kēlā ʻōlelo, ʻaʻole wale ka pāʻani nuklea ma ke kūlanakauhale. ʻElua ʻano hou o nā kumu mana hiki ʻole ke hoʻololi ʻia e pono ke kamaʻilio e pili ana: Thorium a me Fusion ikehu. E noʻonoʻo i kēia mau mea he mana nuklea no ka hanauna e hiki mai ana, akā ʻoi aku ka maʻemaʻe, palekana, a ʻoi aku ka ikaika.

ʻO Thorium a me ka hui ʻana a puni ke kihi?

Holo nā mea hoʻoheheʻe Thorium ma luna o ka thorium nitrate, he kumu waiwai ʻehā manawa i ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o ka uranium. Hoʻonui lākou i ka ikehu ma mua o ka uranium powered reactors, hana liʻiliʻi i ka ʻōpala, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻololi ʻia i mau pōkā o nā mea kaua, a aneane hiki ke hoʻoheheʻe ʻia. (E nānā i ka wehewehe ʻana i ʻelima mau minuke o nā reactors Thorium maanei.)

I kēia manawa, holo maoli nā mea hoʻoheheʻe fusion ma ke kai—a i ʻole ka pololei, kahi hui o ka hydrogen isotopes tritium a me ka deuterium. Ma kahi e hoʻoulu ai nā mea hoʻoheheʻe nuklea i ka uila ma ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana i nā ʻātoma, lawe nā mea hoʻohenehene fusion i kahi ʻaoʻao mai ka puke pāʻani o kā mākou lā a hoʻāʻo e hoʻohui i nā ʻātoma. (E nānā i kahi wehewehe ʻewalu mau minuke o nā reactors fusion maanei.)

No ka hiki ʻana mai o kēia mau ʻenehana hana ikehu ʻelua ma ka mākeke ma ka hopena o 2040s—ua lohi loa no ka hoʻololi maoli ʻana i nā mākeke ikehu o ka honua, koe wale nō kā mākou hakakā ʻana i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau. Mahalo, ʻaʻole paha e lōʻihi ka lōʻihi.

ʻO ka ʻenehana e pili ana i nā reactors thorium i loaʻa a ke hoʻoikaika nei hahaiia e Kina. ʻO ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, ua hoʻolaha lākou i kā lākou hoʻolālā e kūkulu i kahi reactor Thorium holoʻokoʻa i loko o nā makahiki 10 e hiki mai ana (i ka waena o 2020s). I kēia manawa, ua hoʻopau ʻia ka mana fusion no nā makahiki he mau makahiki, akā i kēia manawa nuhou mai Lockheed Martin e hōʻike ana he ʻumi makahiki paha ka mamao o kahi reactor fusion hou.

Inā hele mai kekahi o kēia mau kumu ikehu ma ka pūnaewele i loko o nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana, e hoʻouna ʻo ia i nā hawewe haʻalulu ma nā mākeke ikehu. Hiki i ka Thorium a me ka mana fusion ke hoʻokomo i ka nui o ka ikehu maʻemaʻe i loko o kā mākou pahu ikehu ʻoi aku ka wikiwiki ma mua o nā mea hou aʻe no ka mea ʻaʻole pono lākou iā mākou e hoʻihoʻi hou i ka mana mana. A no ka mea he ʻano nui kēia o ka ikehu, e lilo lākou i mea hoihoi loa i kēlā mau ʻoihana hoʻohana kuʻuna e ʻimi nei e hakakā i ka ulu ʻana o ka lā.

I ka pau ʻana o ka lā, he hoʻolei. Inā komo ka thorium a me ka fusion i nā mākeke kalepa i loko o nā makahiki he 10 e hiki mai ana, hiki iā lākou ke loaʻa i nā mea hou e like me ka wā e hiki mai ana o ka ikehu. ʻOi aku ma mua o kēlā a lanakila nā mea hou. ʻO kēlā me kēia ala, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi a me ka nui o ka ikehu i ko mākou wā e hiki mai ana.

No laila pehea ke ʻano o ka honua me ka ikehu palena ʻole? Ua pane hope mākou i kēlā nīnau ma ʻāpana ʻeono o kā mākou Future of Energy moʻo.