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Okuvuselelekayo uma kuqhathaniswa ne-thorium ne-fusion energy wildcards: Ikusasa Lamandla P5

UDavid Tal, Umshicileli, i-Futurist
@DavidTalWrites
I-LinkedIn

ULwesibili, 09/15/2020 - 10:23

Njengendlela ilanga elingawakhiqizi amandla angu-24/7, nalo alisebenzi kahle kakhulu kwezinye izindawo emhlabeni uma kuqhathaniswa nezinye. Ngithembe, ngivela eCanada, kunezinyanga ezithile lapho ungaliboni khona ilanga. Kungenzeka ukuthi kubi kakhulu emazweni aseNordic naseRussia-mhlawumbe lokho kuchaza nenani elikhulu lensimbi enzima nevodka ejatshulelwa lapho.

Kodwa njengoba kushiwo ku- ingxenye edlule yalolu chungechunge Lwekusasa Lamandla, amandla elanga akuwona kuphela umdlalo ovuselelekayo edolobheni. Eqinisweni, kunezinhlobonhlobo zezinketho zamandla avuselelekayo obuchwepheshe babo bukhula ngokushesha njengelanga, futhi izindleko zabo kanye nokukhishwa kukagesi (kwezinye izimo) zishaya ilanga.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, sizophinde sikhulume ngalokho engikuthanda ukukubiza ngokuthi “okuvuselelekayo kwe-wildcard.” Lena imithombo yamandla emisha futhi enamandla ngendlela emangalisayo ekhiqiza ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni eyiziro, kodwa izindleko zayo zesibili endaweni kanye nomphakathi okusamele zifundwe (futhi zingase zibe yingozi).

Sekukonke, iphuzu esizolihlola lapha ukuthi nakuba i-solar izoba umthombo wamandla ovelele maphakathi nekhulunyaka, ikusasa lizophinde lenziwe i-cocktail yamandla yezinto ezivuselelekayo kanye namakhadi asendle. Ngakho-ke ake siqale ngokuvuselelwa lokho Ama-NIMBY emhlabeni wonke uzonde ngentshiseko.

Amandla omoya, lokho uDon Quixote ayengakwazi

Lapho ama-pundits ekhuluma ngamandla avuselelekayo, izigaxa eziningi emapulazini omoya eduze kwe-solar. Isizathu? Nokho, phakathi kwazo zonke izinto ezivuselelekayo emakethe, ama-windmill amakhulu yiwona abonakala kakhulu-anamathela njengezithupha ezibuhlungu emasimini abalimi kanye nokubukwa okukodwa (futhi okungeyona eyehlukanisiwe) ngaphambili kolwandle ezingxenyeni eziningi zomhlaba.

Kodwa ngenkathi a indawo yokuvota bayabazonda, kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba, baguqula ingxube yamandla. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi ngenkathi amanye amazwe ebusiswe ngelanga, amanye anomoya futhi omningi. Yini eyake yaba i ukucekela phansi izambulela, ukuvala amafasitela, nokucekela phansi izinwele itshaliwe (ikakhulukazi kule minyaka emihlanu kuya kweyisikhombisa edlule) yaba yindawo enamandla yokukhiqiza amandla avuselelekayo.

Thatha amazwe aseNordic, isibonelo. Amandla omoya abelokhu ekhula ngesiqeshana esisheshayo e-Finland nase-Denmark kangangokuthi badla ama-margins enzuzo ezinkampani zabo zikagesi ezisebenza ngamalahle. Lezi yizitshalo zamandla amalahle, ngendlela, okwakufanele zivikele la mazwe kumandla "angenakwethenjelwa" avuselelekayo. Manje, iDenmark neFinland bahlela ukuqhumisa lezi zimboni zikagesi, amamegawathi ayizi-2,000 wamandla angcolile, aphume ohlelweni. by 2030.

Kodwa akupheleli lapho bakwethu! I-Denmark ihambe kakhulu kumandla omoya kangangokuthi ihlela ukuqeda amalahle ngokuphelele ngo-2030 futhi iguqule umnotho wayo wonke emandleni avuselelekayo (ikakhulukazi asuka emoyeni) by 2050. Ngaleso sikhathi, imiklamo emisha ye-windmill (isb. one, ezimbili) ziphuma ngaso sonke isikhathi ezingase ziguqule imboni futhi zenze amandla omoya akhange emazweni acebile elangeni njengoba enza kwabanomoya.

Ukulima amagagasi

Okuhlobene nama-windmill, kodwa agqitshwe ekujuleni kolwandle, kuyindlela yesithathu egcwele kakhulu yamandla avuselelekayo: i-tidal. Izigayo zama-tide zibukeka zifana nama-windmill, kodwa esikhundleni sokuqoqa amandla emoyeni, ziqoqa amandla azo emanzini olwandle.

Amapulazi ama-Tidal awacishe adumile, futhi awahehi ukutshalwa kwezimali okuningi, njengokukhanya kwelanga nomoya. Ngaleso sizathu, i-tidal ayisoze yaba umdlali ophambili kungxube evuselelekayo ngaphandle kwamazwe ambalwa, njenge-UK. Lokho kuyihlazo ngoba, ngokwe-UK Marine Foresight Panel, uma sithwebule nje amaphesenti angu-0.1 wamandla e-kinetic omhlaba, bekuyokwanela ukunika amandla umhlaba.

Amandla e-tidal anezinzuzo ezithile eziyingqayizivele ngaphezu kwelanga nomoya. Isibonelo, ngokungafani ne-solar nomoya, i-tidal empeleni isebenza 24/7. Amagagasi aseduze njalo, ngakho-ke uhlale wazi ukuthi angakanani amandla ozowakhiqiza nganoma yiluphi usuku olunikeziwe—amakhulu ngokubikezela nokuhlela. Futhi okubaluleke kakhulu kuma-NIMBY laphaya, njengoba amapulazi amagagasi ehlala phansi olwandle, awasabonwa, awasekho engqondweni.

Okuvuselelekayo kwesikole esidala: i-hydro ne-geothermal

Ungase ucabange ukuthi kuyinqaba ukuthi uma sikhuluma ngezinto ezivuselelekayo, asinikezi isikhathi esiningi somoya kwezinye zezindlela ezindala kakhulu nezamukelwa kabanzi zokuvuseleleka: i-hydro kanye ne-geothermal. Nokho, kunesizathu esihle salokho: Ukushintsha kwesimo sezulu maduze kuzocekela phansi amandla okukhipha amandla kagesi, kuyilapho i-geothermal izokhula iyonga kakhulu uma iqhathaniswa nelanga nomoya. Kodwa ake sijule kancane.

Iningi lamadamu omhlaba aphehla ugesi ngamanzi aphiwa imifula emikhulu namachibi wona ngokwawo andliwa ukuncibilika kwezinguzunga zeqhwa ngezikhathi ezithile zezintaba eziseduze, futhi, ngokwezinga elincane, amanzi angaphansi komhlaba avela ezindaweni ezinemvula ephakeme ngaphezu kogu lolwandle. Emashumini eminyaka azayo, ukuguquka kwesimo sezulu kuhlelwa ukunciphisa (kuncibilika noma ukomise) inani lamanzi aphuma kuyo yomibili le mithombo yamanzi.

Isibonelo salokhu singabonakala eBrazil, izwe elinenye yezingxube zamandla aluhlaza kakhulu emhlabeni, elikhiqiza amandla angaphezu kwamaphesenti angu-75 ngamandla aphehlwa ngamanzi. Eminyakeni yamuva, imvula enciphile kanye nesomiso esikhulayo kubangele ukuphazamiseka kwamandla njalo (ubumnyama nobumnyama) phakathi nesikhathi esiningi sonyaka. Ubuthakathaka obunjalo bamandla buzovame kakhulu eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, okuphoqa amazwe athembele ku-hydro ukuthi atshale amadola awo avuselelekayo kwenye indawo.

Khonamanjalo, umqondo we-geothermal uyisisekelo ngokwanele: ngaphansi kokujula okuthile, uMhlaba uhlala ushisa; bhomba imbobo ejulile, phonsa amapayipi, uthele amanzi, uqoqe isitimu esishisayo esikhuphukayo, bese usebenzisa leso sitimu ukunika amandla i-turbine futhi ukhiqize amandla.

Kwamanye amazwe anjenge-Iceland, lapho “ibusiswe” khona ngezintaba-mlilo eziningi, i-geothermal iyi-generator enkulu yamandla amahhala naluhlaza—ikhiqiza cishe amaphesenti angu-30 amandla ase-Iceland. Futhi ezindaweni ezikhethiwe zomhlaba ezinezici ezifanayo ze-tectonic, iwuhlobo olufanele lwamandla ongatshala kulo. Kodwa iningi lazo zonke ezinye izindawo, izitshalo ze-geothermal ziyabiza ukwakha futhi ngokuncipha kwentengo yelanga nomoya, i-geothermal ngeke ivele. bakwazi ukuncintisana emazweni amaningi.

I-wildcard ivuselelwa

Abamelene nezinto ezivuselelekayo ngokuvamile bathi ngenxa yokungathembeki kwazo, sidinga ukutshala imali emithonjeni yamandla emikhulu, emisiwe, nengcolile—njengamalahle, uwoyela, negesi yemvelo ewuketshezi—ukuze sinikeze amanani angaguquguquki wamandla ukuhlangabezana nezidingo zethu. Le mithombo yamandla ibizwa ngemithombo yamandla “aphansi” ngenxa yokuthi ngokwesiko ibisebenza njengomgogodla wesistimu yethu yamandla. Kodwa kwezinye izingxenye zomhlaba, ikakhulukazi emazweni afana neFrance, i-nuclear ibe umthombo wamandla oyisisekelo okhethwayo.

Inuzi ibiyingxenye yengxubevange yamandla emhlabeni kusukela ekupheleni kweWWII. Nakuba ngobuchwepheshe ikhiqiza inani elikhulu lamandla e-zero-carbon, imiphumela engemihle mayelana nemfucuza enobuthi, izingozi zenuzi, nokwanda kwezikhali zenuzi kwenze ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesimanje ku-nuclear kucishe kungenzeki.

Sesikushilo lokho, i-nuclear akuwona kuphela umdlalo edolobheni. Kunezinhlobo ezimbili ezintsha zemithombo yamandla angavuseleleki okufanele kukhulunywe ngayo: i-Thorium kanye ne-Fusion energy. Cabanga ngalawa njengamandla enuzi esizukulwaneni esilandelayo, kodwa ahlanzekile, aphephile, futhi anamandla kakhulu.

I-thorium ne-fusion ekhoneni?

Ama-reactors e-thorium asebenzisa i-thorium nitrate, insiza echichima ngokuphindwe kane kune-uranium. Ziphinde zikhiqize amandla angaphezu kwamandla e-uranium, zikhiqiza imfucuza encane, azikwazi ukuguqulwa zibe amabhomu ezinga lezikhali, futhi ziwubufakazi bokuncibilika. (Buka incazelo yemizuzu emihlanu ye-Thorium reactor lapha.)

Ngaleso sikhathi, ama-fusion reactor asebenza emanzini olwandle-noma uma kunjalo, inhlanganisela ye-hydrogen isotopes tritium ne-deuterium. Lapho ama-athomu enuzi akha ugesi ngokuhlukanisa ama-athomu, ama-fusion reactor akhipha ikhasi encwadini yethu yokudlala yelanga bese ezama ukuhlanganisa ama-athomu. (Buka incazelo yemizuzu eyisishiyagalombili yama-fusion reactor lapha.)

Bobabili lobu buchwepheshe bokukhiqiza amandla bekufanele bufike emakethe ngasekupheleni kwawo-2040—sekwephuze kakhulu ukwenza umehluko ezimakethe zomhlaba zamandla, ingasaphathwa eyokulwa kwethu nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu. Ngokujabulisayo, lokho kungase kungabi njalo isikhathi eside kakhulu.

Ubuchwepheshe obuzungeze ama-thorium reactors sebuvele bukhona futhi busebenza ngenkuthalo ilandelwa yiChina. Eqinisweni, bamemezele izinhlelo zabo zokwakha i-reactor ye-Thorium esebenza ngokugcwele phakathi neminyaka eyi-10 ezayo (maphakathi nawo-2020s). Ngaleso sikhathi, amandla e-fusion abelokhu exhaswa kancane amashumi eminyaka, kodwa muva nje izindaba ezivela ku-Lockheed Martin ikhombisa ukuthi i-fusion reactor entsha ingase ibe ishumi leminyaka nje futhi.

Uma enye yale mithombo yamandla iza ku-inthanethi phakathi neshumi leminyaka elizayo, izothumela ukushaqeka ngezimakethe zamandla. Amandla e-thorium namandla e-fusion anamandla okwethula amanani amakhulu wamandla ahlanzekile kugridi yethu yamandla ngokushesha kunawavuselelekayo ngoba ngeke adinge ukuthi sixhume kabusha igridi yamandla ekhona. Futhi njengoba lezi kuyizindlela zamandla ezidinga imali eningi futhi ezimaphakathi, zizokhanga kakhulu lezo zinkampani zensiza zendabuko ezifuna ukulwa nokukhula kwelanga.

Ekupheleni kosuku, kuba i-toss-up. Uma i-thorium ne-fusion ingena ezimakethe zezentengiselwano phakathi neminyaka eyi-10 ezayo, ingadlula okuvuselelekayo njengekusasa lamandla. Noma yisiphi isikhathi esingaphezu kwalokho nokuvuselelekayo kuyaphumelela. Kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yikuphi, amandla ashibhile futhi amaningi asekusasa lethu.

Pho libukeka kanjani izwe elinamandla angenamkhawulo? Ekugcineni siphendula lowo mbuzo ngo ingxenye yesithupha yochungechunge lwethu Lwekusasa Lamandla.